Saturday, July 31, 2010

7/31/10: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 5:34 PM CDT, Saturday, July 31st, 2010

Friday and early Saturday rainfall totals (7-30/7-31) from Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 0.04"

International Falls MN: 0.22"

Brainerd MN: 0.96"

Hibbing MN: 0.07"

Ashland WI: 0.17"

Cook MN: 0.51"

Kabetogama MN: 0.22"

Northome MN: 0.68"

2 miles South of Tower MN: 0.70"

Embarrass MN: 0.50"

Littlefork MN: 0.22"

Floodwood MN: 0.22"

9 miles North of Bayfield WI: 0.65"

5 miles Northwest of Washburn WI: 0.63"

Gurney WI: 0.85"

Weather History:

On this date in 2006...A record high temperature of 95 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

The widespread low cloudiness which developed across our area earlier Today finally gave way to some sunshine from west to east by This Afternoon...Once the sun came out, temperatures warmed up nicely with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s with slightly cooler readings at the head of Lake Superior. Dewpoints late Today were in the 55-64 degree range with PWS of 0.90-1.20". Winds Today were variable or calm.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500 mb flow covered the Upper Midwest Today with an upper level ridge of high pressure (5880-5940 meters) stretching from the Central-Southern Rockies through the Central-Southern Plains and through the Southeast U.S. Several upper level disturbances are embedded within the fast flow aloft across the Western U.S. and Northern tier of the U.S. and through portions of Canda with movement of those systems toward the east or east-southeast.

Tonight:

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area Tonight. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible later in the night, mainly in Northern and Western areas. No severe weather is anticipated Tonight due to limited amounts of instability that will be over our area Tonight. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with winds turning to the south under 15 mph. Patchy fog could also develop over Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin later in the night.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Low pressure will be centered over the Western High Plains/Northern Plains region Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. A warm front attached to this low will extend E-SE into Central Minnesota on Sunday, this boundary is then expected to lift north Sunday Night. A 35 knot SW 850 mb jet will be in place across Minnesota during this period and this will result in a warm/moist advection pattern overspreading our area. Dewpoints should reach the 60s with PWS of 1.25-1.75". We should also see some instability develop around our area with CAPES by Sunday Afternoon-Night increasing to around 1000 j/kg while Lifted Indices drop to around -3 degrees C. Scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible over all of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Sunday and Sunday Night. A few of these storms could become severe especially west of a line from Crane Lake to Aitkin Minnesota. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats along with the usual heavy downpours and dangerous lightning strikes!

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 70s and 80s with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the 60s. Winds Sunday and Sunday Night will be out of the south, southwest or east under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A warm, moist and unstable airmass will remain over our area on Monday as a cold front settles south-east through the Upper Midwest. CAPES of 1500-3000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -3/-5 degrees C combined with fast winds aloft and around 30-40 knots of 0-6 KM and Effective Bulk Shear could lead to the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms and possibly some severe weather Monday Afternoon and Evening across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota.

It looks like things will dry out Monday Night and Tuesday as slightly drier and more stable air works into our area while the main surface boundary sets-up farther to our south.

High temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will be mainly in the 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s both nights.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 58 to 63. Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Sunday... More humid. Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 78 to 83. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday Night... Humid with scattered showers or thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Monday... Humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 80 to 85. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night... Decreasing cloudiness. Low 60 to 65.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 58 to 63.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 56 degrees

Tim