Saturday, July 3, 2010

7/3/10: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:08 PM CDT, Saturday, July 3rd, 2010

I hope everyone has a safe and fun Fourth of July, be careful everyone!

Weather History:

On this date in 1990... A record high temperature of 93 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota. Note: Were 5 degrees off from breaking this record high as of 3 PM Today.

Amazingly warm low temperatures in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin last night, source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 70 degrees

International Falls MN: 74 degrees

Brainerd MN: 73 degrees

Hibbing MN: 70 degrees

Sky Harbor MN: 73 degrees

Ely MN: 70 degrees

Crane Lake MN: 75 degrees

Eveleth MN: 73 degrees

Aitkin MN: 72 degrees

Hayward WI: 71 degrees

Superior WI: 72 degrees

Siren WI: 71 degrees

Littlefork MN: 72 degrees

Here are some high temperatures that occurred in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Friday, July 2nd, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 84 degrees

International Falls MN: 87 degrees

Brainerd MN: 87 degrees

Sky Harbor MN: 88 degrees

Hibbing MN: 86 degrees

Crane Lake MN: 90 degrees

Cook MN: 86 degrees

Ashland WI: 85 degrees

Superior WI: 88 degrees

Kabetogama MN: 87 degrees

Littlefork MN: 87 degrees

9 miles North of Bayfield WI: 93 degrees

Weather tidbits:
Source: NWS Duluth, MN

*Low temperature of 70 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location) was the warmest minimum temperature in nearly 5 years! September 11th, 2005 was the last time with a low temperature of 70 degrees or warmer at Duluth, Minnesota.

*6th warmest minimum temperature (tied) at International Falls, Minnesota... At 6:33 AM CDT, July 3rd, 2010 the low temperature dropped to 74 degrees at International Falls, MN which made it the 6th warmest low temperature ever recorded.

*Record high low temperature also occurred at International Falls, Minnesota Today (7/3/10). Low temperature was 74 degrees which shattered the previous record of 68 degrees which was set in 1990.

*July 3rd, 2010 was the first time since July 10th, 2005 with a low temperature at or above 70 degrees at International Falls, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A hot, windy, and very muggy day throughout our area as strong southerly winds from 15-30 mph continued Today out ahead of a cold front which was centered over the Central Dakotas This Afternoon. High temperatures Today were in the middle 80s to lower 90s in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with dewpoints from the middle 60s to lower 70s which resulted in Afternoon heat indices in the 90s! 850 mb td's as of mid-Afternoon ranged from +15/+18 degrees C with PWS from 1.60-1.90"! The atmosphere is loaded with moisture Today! Partly to mostly sunny skies were found across our area Today with clusters of severe thunderstorms riding east through Southern Ontario Province on the edge of the 700 mb cap...+10 degree C H7 temps in that area with +11/+12 degree C 700 mb temps covering our local area Today.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest flow aloft continued Today across the Upper Midwest with a large (588 meter) upper level ridge covering the Central-Southern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, parts of the Central Plains, the Southern U.S. and parts of the Eastern U.S per RUC model analysis. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM were between +19/+21 degrees C in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. An upper level trough was inching slowly off to the east out of the Northern Rockies Today per water vapor satellite imagery. A tremendous amount of deep tropical moisture was in place from Texas north to the Upper Midwest Today out ahead of the Northern Rockies trough with PWS running from 2.00-2.50", some of this moisture are the remains of what was Hurricane Alex which came ashore in Northern Mexico a few days ago.

Tonight:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should erupt This Evening and continue through the Overnight hours in Northern, Northeast, and Eastern Minnesota as well as in far Northwestern Wisconsin. A cold front which was over the Central Dakotas This Afternoon will move east and is expected to reach Western parts of Minnesota Overnight. A very tropical and warm airmass will remain over our area out ahead of this boundary Tonight with lows in the 60s and 70s with dewpoints also in the 60s and 70s, 850 mb td's around +16 degrees C with PWS from 1.50"-2.10"! Any thunderstorm that forms Tonight will be capable of producing very heavy downpours and dangerous lightning strikes!

...CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT...

Localized flooding could develop during the night, especially in areas that see thunderstorms develop over and over again...Right now it appears that the best potential for such a thing would be over Northcentral-Eastcentral areas of Minnesota, including but not limited to Hibbing, Grand Rapids, Bigfork, Littlefork, Northome, International Falls, Ely, down through Walker, Brainerd, and Aitkin, and possibly east to the Twin Ports.

A few of these thunderstorms could also become severe Tonight, especially west of a line from Ely to Duluth to Pine City, including the Counties of St. Louis MN, Carlton MN, Pine MN, Aitkin MN, Crow Wing MN, Cass MN, Itasca MN, and Koochiching MN... Large hail to 1.00" in diameter and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph are the main threats from any severe thunderstorm Tonight.

There is plenty of fuel in place to support deep convection Tonight with CAPES This Afternoon running from 1500-3500 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -3/-9 degrees C with Lapse Rates ranging from 6.5-7.5 c/km. Wind shear is lacking somewhat though with Effective Bulk Shear and 6KM Shear generally around 25-30 knots late Today, but helicities will be favorable through the night with 0-3 KM SRH around 200 m2/s2 and 0-1 KM SRH around 150 m2/s2. The presence of a decent low level jet (SW of 30-40 knots) will also be favorable for thunderstorm development Tonight.

Thunderstorm initation could take some-time to occur though, thanks to the cap in place as 700 mb temperatures remain around +12 degrees C through most of the night, but it's expected that there will be enough forcing with the approaching cold front and with the low level jet overhead to overcome this cap and allow for some robust thunderstorm development Tonight over parts of our local area.

Fourth of July day and night (Sunday-Sunday Night)

A cold front will continue to move slowly south-east through Northern, Central, and Eastern Minnesota into mid-Afternoon Sunday before reaching Northwestern Wisconsin by late Sunday Afternoon/Evening the way it looks now. A tropical airmass will continue along and ahead of this boundary on Sunday with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s, 850 mb td's of +12/+18 degrees C with PWS from 1.50"-2.00"!

Showers or thunderstorms with a heavy rain/lightning threat will continue on Sunday in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast-Eastcentral Minnesota with a Morning risk of showers or thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota before things dry out in that area Tomorrow Afternoon.

Shower or thunderstorm threat will shift into Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow Evening while Northern-Eastern Minnesota will be dry.

The potential for severe weather is lower Tomorrow compared to Today mainly due to the extensive cloudiness that is forecast to be in place near this cold front on Sunday which will help keep the temperature and instability lower than what were seeing Today. Still can't rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm, however, Sunday Afternoon in Northwest Wisconsin/Eastern Minnesota, especially if some sunshine breaks through the clouds. Hail and high winds would be the main risks once again.

High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Sunday Night in the 50s and 60s.

Extended Forecast:

A southwest flow aloft looks to continue into early and possibly the middle part of next week while a few cold fronts drop east-southeast from the Northern Rockies through the Upper Midwest. The potential does exist for a few showers or thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin between Monday and Wednesday of next week as those fronts move through. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows both nights in the 50s and 60s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Very warm and humid. Breezy. Variable cloudiness. Occasional showers and thunderstorms developing, especially after 9 PM. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Low 70 to 75. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph This Evening. Chance of rain 70%.

.Fourth of July... Muggy. Mostly cloudy with occasional showers or thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible through mid-Afternoon. High 77 to 82. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west during the Afternoon. Chance of rain 70%.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 57 to 62. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 78 to 83.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 77 to 82. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 56 to 61.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 76 to 81.

Normal High Temperature Today 75 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 52 degrees

Tim