Friday, July 2, 2010

7/2/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 2:44 PM CDT, Friday, July 2nd, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1994 and in previous years... A record low temperature of 42 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Here are some high temperatures across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday, July 1st, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls MN: 86 degrees

Brainerd MN: 87 degrees

Hibbing MN: 85 degrees

Orr MN: 86 degrees

Crane Lake MN: 88 degrees

Cook MN: 84 degrees

Bigfork MN: 86 degrees

Grand Rapids MN: 84 degrees

Pine River MN: 84 degrees

McGregor MN: 84 degrees

Ashland WI: 83 degrees

Hayward WI: 82 degrees

Siren WI: 84 degrees

Phillips WI: 81 degrees

Kabetogama MN: 85 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: 82 degrees

Littlefork MN: 87 degrees

Madeline Island WI: 85 degrees

Upson WI: 81 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Deep southerly flow between high pressure (1024 mb) over Ohio and a few areas of low pressure (998-1006 mb) centered over the Rockies continued to pump warm and increasingly humid air north into our neck of the woods Today. High temperatures topped out in the 80s in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with Afternoon dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s to the middle 60s. Heat indices This Afternoon were pretty similar to the actual air temperature with mainly 80s across our area. PWS This Afternoon ranged from 0.70"-0.90" across Northwest Wisconsin, Northeast and far Eastern Minnesota with 1.00"-1.50" PWS covering Northcentral Minnesota. Winds Today were out of the south at 10-20 mph with gusts reaching 25-35 mph!

Today's upper level analysis:

Southwest flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest Today with a (594 meter) upper level high covering areas from Missouri and Central Illinois south through Central Arkansas and Northern Mississippi per RUC model analysis. An upper level trough continued to dig south/east out of Southwest Canada and the Pacific Northwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery. Plenty of warm air continued to advect E/NE off the Western High Plains Today with 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranging from +17/+19 degrees C in our local area with a widespread area of +20/+30 degree C H85 temperatures lurking off to our W/SW.

Tonight:

Clear-partly cloudy skies will be found across our area Tonight with the potential for some late night showers or thunderstorms mainly in west-north areas...or along and north of a line from Walker to Ely. CAPES around 1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -1/-4 degrees C will be found in Northern Minnesota Tonight and this combined with deep moisture in place could cause some convection to develop later in the night into Saturday Morning. A rather strong cap is in place This Afternoon, however, with late day 700 mb temperatures around +11 degrees C, so this will need to lower some for any thunderstorm to develop. Locally heavy downpours and possibly some hail and gusty winds (both under severe criteria) could occur late Tonight over parts of Northern Minnesota. Lows will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with winds out of the south at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts thanks to a strengthening low level jet which will vary between 35-50 knots Tonight.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Very warm, breezy, and muggy conditions will persist across our local area during this period as a cold front makes slow headway through the Dakotas and into Western Minnesota by late Tomorrow Night. Southerly winds of 10-20 mph with gusts from 25-35 mph will occur on Saturday as high temperatures reach the 80s to lower 90s in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Dewpoints on Saturday are forecast to climb even higher then Today with 65-75 degree dews pretty common throughout most of our area by Saturday Afternoon/Evening. PWS will range from 1.25"-2.00" while 850 mb td's build to around +16 degrees C! Instability will also be quite strong Saturday Afternoon/Evening, especially in Northern-Western portions of our area where CAPES will range from 2000-3000 j/kg with Lifted Indices from -3/-8 degrees C. A layer of warm air aloft will also reside in our area once again Tomorrow Afternoon with 700 mb temperatures as high as +12 degrees C, but the approach of the cold front and some help from a low level jet from the southwest up to 40 knots should be able to break through this cap which will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to erupt from Northcentral to Westcentral Minnesota late Saturday Afternoon or Saturday Evening. A few of these storms could become severe during that time frame with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats...The greatest potential for severe weather will be west of a line from Ely Minnesota to McGrath Minnesota the way it looks now.

Scattered showers or thunderstorms will overspread the rest of Northeast-Eastern Minnesota and parts of Northwest Wisconsin late Tomorrow Night, but the overall severe threat should diminish by that time.

Locally heavy rainfall will occur with any thunderstorm that develops during this period due to the abundant moisture in place...Some localized flooding is possible if thunderstorms train over the same locations.

Lows Saturday Night will be in the 60s to lower 70s with mostly cloudy skies along with south or west winds from 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front should be tracking through Northcentral, Northeast, and Eastern Minnesota Sunday Morning and early Sunday Afternoon...This boundary will then settle into Northwest Wisconsin Sunday Afternoon/Evening before getting shoved farther south/east Sunday Night. Very moist air will continue along and ahead of this front on Sunday over Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s with PWS from 1.25"-1.75"! Scattered showers or thunderstorms with a threat for heavy rainfall will linger on Sunday over Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with mainly dry conditions expected after some Morning showers or thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota. Highs on Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s. By Sunday Night, the risk for showers or thunderstorms will be confined to Northwest Wisconsin while the remainder of our area will dries out. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. A cold front will be centered to our south/east on Monday while a new cold front takes shape over the Northern Rockies-Northern Plains. It looks dry at this time across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Monday and Monday Night with highs in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Breezy...Warm...And Somewhat humid. Mostly clear. Low 65 to 70. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph.

.Saturday... Very warm...Humid...Breezy. Partly cloudy. High 83 to 88. Wind south at 15 to 30 mph. Afternoon heat indices around 90 degrees.

.Saturday Night... Very warm and muggy. Showers or thunderstorms developing. Heavy rainfall possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 67 to 72. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Fourth of July... Muggy. Showers or thunderstorms possible, especially through early Afternoon. Mostly cloudy. High 78 to 83. Chance of rain 60%.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 57 to 62.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 78 to 83.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 77 to 82.

Normal High Temperature Today 75 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 52 degrees

Tim