Issued at 3:41 PM CDT, Monday, July 19th, 2010
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Partly to mostly cloudy skies along with a few showers were common across our local area Today, most of the showers have been light, but a few locales north of the Iron Range and also down near Brainerd have seen some heavier showers at times Today. High temperatures were in the 70s to around 80 degrees Today with dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s, PWS of 1.00-1.20". Winds Today were out of the generally out of the west or south under 15 mph.
Today's Upper Level Analysis:
West/northwest flow aloft prevailed over the Upper Midwest Today with an upper level low digging south-southeast out of Western Alberta Province and Eastern British Columbia per water vapor satellite imagery. A couple of disturbances embedded within this W/NW 500 mb flow continued to move east across the Northern U.S. Today.
Tonight through Tuesday Night:
Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover our area through this period with a few troughs/upper level disturbances continuing to pass through the Upper Midwest while a better defined stationary front remains well to our south across the Central Plains. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will be found across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Tonight through Tomorrow Night, no severe weather is anticipated due to relatively weak instability, but some brief heavy downpours and occasional lightning strikes could occur in some of the spotty convection. Lows Tonight and Tuesday Night will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees, but a few of the typical cool spots could dip into the 40s. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees. There could also be some patchy fog late Tonight/early Tomorrow, and again late Tomorrow Night over parts of our area. Winds during this period will be variable under 15 mph.
Spotty showers or isolated thunderstorms could persist across our area on Wednesday with high temperatures in the 70s to around 80 degrees with lows Wednesday Night in the 50s to around 60 degrees. From Thursday into Friday we could see a somewhat better organized low pressure system pass through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, but the exact details in regards to timing and the track of the surface low are handled differently with the forecast models Today. Right now it appears that we could see some showers or thunderstorms late this week around our area, but the better threat for severe weather and heavy rain could stay to our south, unless the surface low takes a more west-northwest track which would help lift a warm front further north and closer to our local area. High temperatures on Thursday will be mainly in the 70s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior
.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers possible This Evening. Low 55 to 60. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
.Tuesday... Partly sunny. A few Afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible. High 77 to 82. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind variable around 12 mph.
.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 77 to 82.
.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62.
.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 71 to 76. Chance of rain 20%.
.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 58 to 63. Chance of rain 20%.
.Friday... Showers possible. Partly sunny. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 20%.
Normal High Temperature Today 77 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 55 degrees