Sunday, July 18, 2010

7/18/10: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 7:32 PM CDT, Sunday, July 18th, 2010

...ANOTHER OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY, JULY 17TH, 2010...

*Tornado reports in Minnesota from 7/17/10: 8

4:16 PM CDT 7/17/10: Tornado. 2 miles Southeast of Kingston, Minnesota (Meeker County)

5:01 PM CDT 7/17/10: Tornado. 2 miles Southwest of Watertown, Minnesota (Carver County)

6:58 PM CDT 7/17/10: Tornado. 1 mile South of Cushing, Minnesota (Morrison County)

7:25 PM CDT 7/17/10: Tornado. 3 miles South of Foreston, Minnesota (Mille Lacs County)

8:20 PM CDT 7/17/10: Tornado. Dayton, Minnesota. (Hennepin County)

8:22 PM CDT 7/17/10: Tornado. 5 miles North-Northwest of Lake Wilson, Minnesota. (Murrary County)

8:27 PM CDT 7/17/10: Tornado. Anoka, Minnesota. (Anoka County)

8:57 PM CDT 7/17/10: Tornado. Lake Elmo, Minnesota. (Washington County)

2010 Tornado Reports per Storm Prediction Center, ending on July 17th, 2010.

*Minnesota: 89-1st place
*Texas: 87-2nd place
*Kansas: 80-3rd place

Weather tidbits:

*Record number of tornadoes in Minnesota is 72 which occurred in 2001. 2nd place occurred was in 1998 with 57 tornadoes!

*Actual number of tornadoes so far in 2010 in Minnesota is around 45, but still way above our average which is around 20-22 through mid-July.

*344 severe weather reports across the U.S. on Saturday, July 17th, 2010 with the highest concentration of severe reports over the Northcentral U.S. and over parts of the Eastern U.S.

*To go along with the tornado and damaging wind reports across Minnesota on Saturday, July 17th, 2010 there was also a number of large hail reports...Some ranging in size from 2.00-4.25" in diameter or Egg-Hen to almost Softball size!

Here are the storm reports from Northern Minnesota on Saturday, July 17th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

*12:15 PM CDT 7/17/10: 0.88" diameter hail. 2 miles West of Pine River, Minnesota (Cass County)

*2:19 PM CDT 7/17/10: 0.50" diameter hail. Leech Lake, Minnesota (Cass County)

*2:20 PM CDT 7/17/10: 0.50" diameter hail. 1 mile South of Walker, Minnesota (Cass County)

*3:27 PM CDT 7/17/10: 0.50" diameter hail. 4 miles North-Northeast of Brainerd, Minnesota (Crow Wing County)

*4:45 PM CDT 7/17/10: 1.00" diameter hail. 3 miles South of Ironton, Minnesota (Crow Wing County)

*6:00 PM CDT 7/17/10: Thunderstorm wind damage. 2 miles North of Fort Ripley, Minnesota (Crow Wing County) 2 large oak trees blown down. Other small trees damaged.

*6:25 PM CDT 7/17/10: 0.75" diameter hail. Fort Ripley, Minnesota (Crow Wing County)

*6:40 PM CDT 7/17/10: Thunderstorm wind damage. 2 miles North of Motley, Minnesota (Crow Wing County) Many trees down, power was out. Some shingles blown off.

Here are some rainfall totals across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from 7 AM CDT Saturday through around 7 AM CDT Sunday. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 0.85"

Brainerd MN: 1.39"

Ashland WI: 0.55"

Hayward WI: 0.62"

Cook MN: 0.28"

Embarrass MN: 0.23"

Bruno MN: 0.60"

12 miles North of Isle MN: 2.88"

5 miles Southwest of Brainerd MN: 2.28"

Solon Springs WI: 0.43"

Winter WI: 0.57"

Butternut WI: 0.36"

Upson WI: 0.72"

Sarona WI: 0.68"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Lingering low level moisture combined with some heating which occurred during the day led to the development of spotty showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two This Afternoon, mainly in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Otherwise skies were partly-mostly sunny Today with high temperatures in the lower 70s in Downtown Duluth with mid 70s to low 80s common elsewhere. Dewpoints late Today were in the mid 50s to lower 60s with PWS of 0.80"-1.10". Winds Today were variable under 15 mph.

This Evening's Upper Level Analysis:

West/northwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest late Today per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. Several disturbances were embedded within this fast flow aloft which covered the Northern U.S. and Western portions of Canada Today. Upper level high pressure ridges (5940) covered the Southwest U.S. as well as Florida.

Tonight:

Clear-partly cloudy skies will be found across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with any isolated shower activity dissipating by Midnight. Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s with light winds.

Monday and Monday Night:

A weak disturbance will be near our area through this period, this combined with CAPES approaching 1000 j/kg and Lifted Indicies of zero/-3 degrees C could lead to the formation of a few showers or thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. No severe weather is expected Tomorrow or Tomorrow Night the way it looks now, but some brief heavy rain and occasional lightning strikes could occur. Highs on Monday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Monday Night in the 50s and 60s. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area during this period with winds out of the south, west, or north under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A warm front/stationary front will remain to our south, generally across Nebraska and Iowa through Friday and this is where the deepest moisture/instability will be located and where the higher threat for heavy rain/severe weather will be found during the next few days. Our local area will see a few disturbances continue head off to the east from the Northern Rockies and those systems combined with enough moisture and instability could result in a few showers or thunderstorms at times on Tuesday and possibly again by later this week. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows both nights in the 50s and 60s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60. Wind variable around 12.

.Monday... Partly sunny. Afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible. High 79 to 84. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62. Wind west around 12 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 77 to 82. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 76 to 81.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 77 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 55 degrees

Tim