Monday, July 12, 2010

7/12/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:39 PM CDT, Monday, July 12th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1990... A record low temperature of 42 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Scattered severe thunderstorms affected portions of Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin this past weekend, July 10th and 11th, 2010. Here are the local storm reports from the National Weather Service Duluth, MN.

*4:34 PM CDT 7/10/10: 4 miles South-Southwest of Drummond WI (Bayfield County) 1.00" diameter hail. Small branches downed due to strong winds. Report was along Highway 63.

*4:25 PM CDT 7/10/10: 4 miles North-Northwest of Cable WI (Ashland County) 0.88" diameter hail. Lots of dime and nickel sized hail along with strong winds.

*7:40 PM CDT 7/10/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 2 miles North of Cross Lake MN (Crow Wing County) Trained spotter overheard police scanner reports of trees down between Cross Lake and Fifty Lakes.

*10:00 PM CDT 7/10/10: 7 miles West of Cloquet MN (Carlton County) Thunderstorm wind damage. Top of a spruce tree was snapped off. 4 large basswood trees blown down. A couple of tent poles broken. Report was near Big Lake.

*10:15 PM CDT 7/10/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 3 miles Southwest of Cloquet MN (Carlton County) 12" diameter tree snapped, lying across road.

*10:17 PM CDT 7/10/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Cloquet MN (Carlton County) Trees down along with power outages.

*10:21 PM CDT 7/10/10: Cloquet MN (Carlton County) 1.00" diameter hail. High winds also with the hail.

*10:32 PM CDT 7/10/10: Esko MN (Carlton County) 1.50" diameter hail.

*10:39 PM CDT 7/10/10: Thunderstorm Wind Gust. 3 miles East of Esko MN (Carlton County) 60 mph wind gust reported on Midway Road and Interstate 35.

*10:45 PM CDT 7/10/10: 2 miles South-Southeast of Duluth, MN. 40 mph wind gust. A 35 knot wind was measured by the MNDOT Observation on the Blatnik Bridge.

11:03 PM CDT 7/10/10: Superior WI (Douglas County) 50 mph thunderstorm wind gust along with pea sized hail.

*11:14 PM CDT 7/10/10: 2 miles South-Southeast of Duluth, MN. 46 mph wind gust. A 40 knot wind gust was measured on a private weather station at the Duluth/Superior Harbor.

*8:54 AM CDT 7/11/10: Marine Thunderstorm Wind Gust. A 51 mph wind gust was reported at Devils Island WI (Ashland County) A peak wind gust to 44 knots occurred at Devils Island WI in the Apostle Islands.

*2:55 PM CDT 7/11/10: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. 4 miles West of Falun WI (Burnett County) Large pine tree at over 12" in diameter fell. Lots of plants stripped of their leaves by large hail.

Note: 2 tornadoes were also reported in Western Minnesota early Saturday Evening (5PM-8PM), July 10th, 2010.

Here are some rainfall totals from Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Saturday, July 10th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN. Totals are from 7 AM CDT Saturday through around 7 AM CDT Sunday.

Duluth MN: 0.05"

International Falls MN: 0.12"

Grand Marais MN: 0.31"

Hibbing MN: 0.19"

Kabetogama MN: 0.28"

Northome MN: 0.42"

8 miles South of Bigfork MN: 0.48"

4 miles East of Island Lake MN: 1.03"

Floodwood MN: 0.20"

Solon Springs WI: 0.16"

Here are some rainfall totals from Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday, July 11th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Grand Portage MN: 0.21"

Bruno MN: 0.40"

3 miles East of Orr MN: 0.28"

Madeline Island WI: 1.12"

Butternut WI: 0.45"

Here are some high temperatures that occurred in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Saturday, July 10th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 84 degrees

International Falls MN: 86 degrees

Brainerd MN: 85 degrees

Hibbing MN: 86 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 84 degrees

Crane Lake MN: 90 degrees

Cook MN: 86 degrees

Bigfork MN: 86 degrees

Superior WI: 86 degrees

Hayward WI: 85 degrees

Kabetogama MN: 87 degrees

Embarrass MN: 86 degrees

Littlefork MN: 87 degrees

Bruno MN: 85 degrees

Madeline Island WI: 87 degrees

Solon Springs WI: 86 degrees

Here are some low temperatures that occurred This Morning around Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls MN: 43 degrees

Brainerd MN: 48 degrees

Hibbing MN: 42 degrees

Ely MN: 45 degrees

Bigfork MN: 45 degrees

Superior WI: 48 degrees

Hayward WI: 45 degrees

Kabetogama MN: 44 degrees

Northome MN: 45 degrees

Embarrass MN: 40 degrees

Bruno MN: 45 degrees

Floodwood MN: 41 degrees

Weather tidbits for Duluth, MN:

*So far this month we've had 8 days with a high temperature at or above 80 degrees. All of July 2009 produced just 2 days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees.

*Consecutive days with an above normal or normal high temperature will come to an end Today at 11 straight days.

*Average Monthly temperature (thru the 11th) 70.8 degrees which is 6.3 degrees Above Normal.

*Precipitation total thru the 11th: 0.75" which is 0.80" Below Normal.

*July 10th, 2010 was our first day with a thunderstorm since June 24th, 2010.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A ridge of high pressure averaging 1012-1013 mb covered Minnesota and Lake Superior Today resulting in a pleasantly cool day with low humidity. High temperatures Today were lower to middle 70s with dewpoints mainly in the 40s, although it was somewhat more humid near the shores of Lake Superior where Afternoon dewpoints were in the 50s. PWS This Afternoon were running at around 0.70"! Winds Today were calm or easterly in direction at 5-15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

West-northwest flow aloft was in place Today across the Upper Midwest as an upper level trough heads east through the Upper Midwest/Central Canada/and the Upper Great Lakes per water vapor satellite imagery. A powerful upper level low was centered over Western Canada This Afternoon per RUC model analysis with a 60-80 knot mid level jet streak in the Pacific Northwest along with a 100-110 knot upper level jet which was in place from the Northeast Pacific into the Pacific Northwest, or on the southwest side of this unusually strong upper low in Western Canada.

Tonight:

Clear-partly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight as high pressure brings one more cool/calm/dry night to our area. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with light winds. Some patchy fog could develop in low lying areas Overnight, similar to what occurred late last night.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

High pressure will shift off to our east which will cause southerly winds to develop through the Upper Midwest. Warm/moist advection pattern will be underway during this period as a 30-45 knot S/SW low level jet advects deeper moisture north into our area. Dewpoints during this period will rise into the 50s and 60s with PWS climbing to between 1.00"-1.50"! Low pressure will begin to take shape over the Western High Plains Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night while a warm front which extended from Western North Dakota to Southern South Dakota Today will lift east-northeast and should reach Western parts of Minnesota by Tuesday Night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should begin to affect Northcentral/Eastern Minnesota and possibly Northwest Wisconsin especially Tuesday Night, but a few showers or thunderstorms could develop on Tuesday in Western portions of our area.

Strong winds aloft with 50-70 knot mid level jet stream winds spreading into the Northern Plains along with an upper level jet of around 100 knots combined with strong wind shear in conjunction with increasing amounts of instability could lead to some severe weather from late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night mainly west of a line from Ely to Duluth to Pine City. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main risks if severe weather does develop late Tomorrow or Tomorrow Night.

Partly-mostly sunny skies are expected on Tuesday with highs in the 70s and 80s. Partly-mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 50s and 60s can be expected Tuesday Night. Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10-25 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Severe weather outbreak possible Wednesday...An usually strong upper level low pressure system which was over Western Canada Today will move east, reaching the Manitoba Lakes region by mid-week. Strong winds aloft (100 knots at 300 mb) and (60-80 knots at 500 mb) will surge east from the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Wednesday which could help in causing a severe weather event for some parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

A warm front will be lifting E/NE through our area on Wednesday which will then be followed by a cold front which is expected to pass through our area from Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening. The atmosphere along and ahead of these fronts could get rather unstable on Wednesday with CAPES of 1500-2500 j/kg along with Lifted Indices of -2/-5 degrees C. This combined with strong lift from the approaching upper low will result in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday Evening for Northern/Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

40-60 knots of shear combined with a change of wind direction with height (S-SE near the surface) (S at 850 mb) and (SW at 500 mb) could result in rotating supercell thunderstorms depending on the timing of the system, as well as the amount of clearing and heating that can take place on Wednesday.

Damaging winds and large hail will be possible in any severe thunderstorm on Wednesday, but a tornado risk could also develop most likely in Eastern Minnesota and or Northern Wisconsin Wednesday Afternoon and Evening the way it looks now.

High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 70s and 80s with dewpoints in the 60s and lower 70s along with PWS ranging from 1.25"-1.75"! With the increase in moisture, the threat for heavy rainfall will develop from Tuesday Night into Wednesday Evening. Low temperatures Wednesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Calmer weather conditions will return to our area on Thursday as low pressure at the surface and aloft pass by to our north while a cold front pushes off well to our east. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s on Thursday with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints should drop as well on Thursday with 50s returning to our area.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 50 to 55. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 58 to 63. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Variable cloudiness. High 72 to 77. Chance of rain 50%.

.Wednesday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible early. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62. Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday... Less humid. Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 58 to 63.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.

Normal High Temperature Today 76 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 55 degrees

Tim