Wednesday, June 9, 2010

6/9/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:25 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 9th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1988... A record low temperature of 31 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Here are some rainfall totals across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Tuesday, June 8th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN (St. Louis County) 0.77"

International Falls MN (Koochiching County) 0.62"

Brainerd MN (Crow Wing County) 0.38"

Grand Marais MN (Cook County) 1.15"

Hibbing MN (St. Louis County) 0.79"

Ashland WI (Ashland County) 1.02"

Hayward WI (Sawyer County) 0.96"

Cass Lake MN (Cass County) 0.35"

Grand Portage MN (Cook County) 1.32"

Cook MN (St. Louis County) 0.71"

Kabetogama MN (St. Louis County) 0.87"

Embarrass MN (St. Louis County) 1.00"

2 miles South of Tower MN (St. Louis County) 0.71"

Bruno MN (Pine County) 0.83"

Floodwood MN (St. Louis County) 0.71"

Hinckley MN (Pine County) 0.97"

Madeline Island WI: 1.30"

5 miles Northwest of Washburn WI (Bayfield County) 1.12"

Spooner WI (Washburn County) 0.84"

Butternut WI (Ashland County) 1.70"

Upson WI (Iron County) 0.96"

Sarona WI (Washburn County) 1.35"

Note: Rainfall total for the month of June (thru the 8th) 1.74" at Duluth MN which is 0.70" Above Normal.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather

Strong low pressure (1000 mb) was pulling east out of the Lake Nipigon area in Southern Ontario Province late Today. A trough extending southwest of that low was pushing southeast through Northern-Eastern Minnesota Today. Cold air aloft and some lingering moisture wrapping around the low brought a few more showers to parts of our area Today with most of these brief showers affecting areas from the Iron Range and Arrowhead south through the Twin Ports and into portions of Northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures Today under partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies were in the 50s and 60s with a few locales from Superior and Downtown Duluth up to Grand Marais flirting with 70 degrees This Afternoon. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +5/+9 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the northwest or west and were quite strong with wind speeds of 15-35 mph!

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Temporary northwest flow aloft was in place across portions of the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes Today as a potent upper level low (558 meters) passes just north of Lake Superior. A brief upper level ridge of high pressure was building east from the Northern Plains Today while the next strong weather system heads east through the Pacific Northwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery with a nice plume of mid/high level moisture extending from California northeast to Montana.

Tonight:

An area of high pressure will build east from the Dakotas through the Upper Midwest while strong low pressure pulls deeper into Eastern Canada. Spotty brief showers will dissipate by 9 PM in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, then the rest of the night will be dry across our local area with lows in the 40s to around 50 degrees with 30s in the typical cold spots. Some patchy fog could develop Overnight. Winds Tonight will be out of the north or west at 15-30 mph, decreasing to under 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

An area of high pressure will exit to our north/east during this period while low pressure takes shape across the Rockies/Western High Plains. A warm front will extend east of that low with this boundary remaining well to our south during this period. Moisture will begin to increase in our area Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night thanks to a 30-40 knot southerly low level jet, PWS are forecast to surge to 1.00"-1.50" with 850 mb td's climbing to around +8/+12 degrees C. Clusters of rain and showers will develop and spread E/NE into Western-Southern parts of our area on Thursday with activity shifting through the rest of our area Thursday Night. Some of the rain could be heavy at times and there's also a risk for isolated thunderstorms, especially by Thursday Night, but no severe weather is expected due to a limited amount of instability this far north. Expect partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies on Thursday with highs in the 50s and 60s with lows Thursday Night in the 40s and 50s. Winds will shift into the east at 10-25 mph during this period with the stronger winds near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast:

A warm front is forecast to stretch from the Iowa-Minnesota state line into Southcentral Wisconsin on Friday before shifting farther south/east this weekend. An area of low pressure will track along this front and this combined with abundant low level moisture lifting north through the Upper Midwest will result in more clusters of rain which could be heavy at times from Friday into Friday Night. The forecast models are at odds Today as to what area/s will see the heaviest rains for Friday, the NAM-WRF is targeting areas west/north of the Twin Ports while the GFS has it from the Twin Ports on south and east. The potential does exist for 1-2" of rain in the heavier band/s with widespread quarter-half inch amounts outside of the heavier rain areas. The thunderstorm threat continues to look pretty low around this area on Friday with the best instability tied up farther south, but at least an isolated thunderstorm risk will exist around our area for Friday and Friday Night thanks to some elevated instability which should push north.

Saturday and Saturday Night could feature some additional rain chances across parts of our area, although it does appear that the focus for heavier rain will have settled south by then.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the 50s and 60s, but lakeshore areas may struggle to reach 50 degrees on Friday thanks to a brisk onshore wind along with some fog. Lows Friday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Highs on Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Saturday Night in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Breezy This Evening. Variable cloudiness with skies becoming mostly clear later in the night. Low 40 to 45. Wind west to northwest at 15 to 30 mph, decreasing to 10 to 15 mph This Evening.

.Thursday... Some sunshine during the Morning, then increasing cloudiness with showers possible in the Afternoon. High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind becoming east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday Night... Occasional rain. Mostly cloudy. Low 47 to 52. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Friday... Occasional rain with areas of fog possible. Overcast. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 60%.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy, areas of fog possible. Showers at times. Low 48 to 53. Chance of rain 40%.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 60 to 65. Chance of rain 40%.

.Saturday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 47 to 52. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. Showers possible. High 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 70 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 47 degrees

Tim