Tuesday, June 8, 2010

6/8/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:38 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 8th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 2000 and in previous years, a record high temperature of 88 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A cold, blustery, rainy day in our local area Today as low pressure and an occluded front make there way into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. As of 3 PM CDT, low pressure averaging 1006 mb was centered in Central Minnesota with a secondary low averaging 1004 mb centered in the Southern half of Manitoba Province. Occluded front as of mid-Afternoon stretched from Northeast North Dakota into Central Minnesota. Abundant moisture with Afternoon PWS of 1.00"-1.60" and 850 mb td's of +8/+12 degrees C have surged north into our local area Today ahead of this system and this combined with some pretty good lift and convergence has resulted in a widespread area of rain which has been working southwest-east/northeast across our area Today. Most areas have seen upwards of one quarter inch of rain Today with localized higher totals. Overcast skies with highs only in the 50s to around 60 degrees occurred Today with 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from +8/+12 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the east at 10-20 mph with gusts over 30 mph occurring near Lake Superior.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

A vigorous upper level low (558 meters) was centered along the Southeast Saskatchewan/ Southwestern Manitoba Province area late Today per RUC model analysis. A west-southwest flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest Today ahead of this system with a strong jet streak of 90-100 knots in place from Northcentral Wyoming to Western Minnesota, or on the south/southeast side of this storm. A northwest flow aloft covered Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. once again Today with a powerful upper level jet of 110-140 knots in place over parts of those areas. To our west, there are two strong upper level lows in place, one was heading E/NE and was approaching the Pacific Northwest late Today while the other one was drifting west and away from Alaska per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

Occluded front will continue to lift northeast and is expected to pass through all but the Arrowhead of Minnesota by late Tonight. Low pressure in Central Minnesota late Today will exit to our E/NE by late Evening while the surface and upper level low in Southwest Manitoba Province late Today passes by to our northwest/north during the night. Rain and showers will continue across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with the steadier rains ending from west to east This Evening. The far Northeast part of Minnesota, Grand Marais...Hovland...Grand Portage areas could see the steadier rain persist most of the night, while the remainder of our area has fewer showers after mid-Evening. A nice area of instability has developed across the Dakotas This Afternoon where isolated severe thunderstorms have been developing, as this activity works east into more stable air, the threat for severe weather will diminish greatly, but isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out before Midnight in Western areas, generally affecting areas west of a line from Squaw Lake to Leader. Areas of fog are possible through mid-Evening, mainly near Lake Superior...Otherwise expect a considerable amount of cloudiness around our area Tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s. Winds will shift from the east to the west at 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Low pressure will pass by to our north/northeast during this period. Some residual moisture and cold air aloft will be found in our area on Wednesday and this could result in the development of a few showers across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, dry weather is then expected for Wednesday Night. Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Wednesday with highs in the 50s and 60s. Skies will become mostly clear Wednesday Night with lows in the 40s, but some 30s are possible in the typical cold spots. It will be quite windy on Wednesday with westerly breezes at 15-30 mph! Winds will subside out of the north or west at 5-15 mph Wednesday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Thursday still looks like it will be dry across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s, but it will be cooler near Lake Superior as winds swing around to the east once again. The period from Thursday Night through the weekend will see a warm front set-up well to our south with high pressure off to our north. Strong warm/moist advection will occur from Thursday Night into Friday across our area and this should result in a few rounds of rain, which could be heavy at times...Isolated thunderstorms are also possible from Thursday Night into Friday Night, but severe weather is not expected this far north. Models still disagree as to what will happen this weekend, a few models continue to show additional rain chances around our area while others dry things out as high pressure takes hold of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. High temperatures on Friday will be in the 50s and 60s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. Lows Friday Night will be in the 40s and 50s with highs Saturday in the 50s and 60s with lows Saturday Night in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Windy early with occasional rain and drizzle along with areas of fog. Mostly cloudy through the night. A few showers still possible from mid-Evening through the Overnight hours. Low 47 to 52. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts from 25 to 35 mph. Wind decreasing to 10 to 20 mph and shifting west by Midnight. Chance of rain near 100% early, decreasing to 30% by mid-Evening.

.Wednesday... Breezy. Considerable cloudiness. A few showers possible. High 60 to 65. Wind west at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday Night... Becoming mostly clear. Low 40 to 45. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers possible late. Low 47 to 52. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy, areas of fog possible. Rain at times. High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 60%.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy, areas of fog possible. Rain at times, maybe a thunderstorm. Low 48 to 53. Chance of rain 60%.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 60 to 65. Chance of rain 40%.

Normal High Temperature Today 70 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 47 degrees

Tim