Monday, June 7, 2010

6/7/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:42 PM CDT, Monday, June 7th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1988 and previous years... A record high temperature of 88 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Here are some low temperatures from earlier Today across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 41 degrees

International Falls MN: 38 degrees

Hibbing MN: 40 degrees

Two Harbors MN: 39 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 34 degrees

Grand Marais MN: 34 degrees

Ely MN: 37 degrees

Aitkin MN: 39 degrees

Cloquet MN: 37 degrees

Ashland WI: 35 degrees

Hayward WI: 33 degrees

Superior WI: 37 degrees

Phillips WI: 37 degrees

Siren WI: 39 degrees

Embarrass MN: 35 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: 37 degrees

Bruno MN: 32 degrees

Butternut WI: 34 degrees

Upson WI: 33 degrees

Here are some rainfall totals across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday, June 6th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 0.32"

Brainerd MN: 0.41"

Hibbing MN: 0.37"

Hayward WI: 0.08"

Floodwood MN: 0.19"

Hinckley MN: 0.10"

Weather tidbits for Duluth, MN:

*Average monthly temperature thru the 6th: 57.0 degrees
Departure: 0.2 degrees Below Normal

*0.97" of rain has fallen at the Duluth Airport during the past three days which is also our monthly precipitation total through the 6th of June. This is 0.20" Above Normal.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A ridge of high pressure averaging 1020 mb has pushed off to our east This Afternoon while a couple areas of low pressure averaging 1004-1012 mb were centered well to our west-southwest. A rather pleasant late Spring day occurred across our area Today with partly-mostly sunny skies with highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s which is right around average for early June. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM were sitting right around +8 degrees C. A fairly dry airmass was overhead Today with Afternoon PWS of 0.60"-0.80" with dewpoints in the upper 30s and lower 40s in Northeast Minnesota/Northwest Wisconsin with mid 40s/low 50 dewpoints from the Iron Range through the Brainerd Lakes area on up to International Falls. Some lingering cold air aloft, H5 temps around -16 degrees C, combined with weak instability Afternoon CAPES of 250-500 j/kg and Lifted Indices from zero/+2 degrees C was in place across parts of Northern Minnesota late Today and there's been a few sprinkles and light rain showers that have been trying to develop This Afternoon, generally across Koochiching County in Northern Minnesota.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Potent upper level low (546 meters) covered Central Quebec Province in Eastern Canada Today with a NW flow and upper level trough in place from the Eastern half of Canada through the Eastern Great Lakes/Northeast U.S., per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. A rather vigorous system was heading east out of the Pacific Northwest and Southwestern Canada This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery with a brief ridge covering the Upper Midwest Today in between the system to our east and the one out west. The flow aloft has turned more westerly Today across our area while two notable jet maxes were found per RUC model analysis across the Central-Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley (120 knots) with the other one extending from Southcentral Idaho to Central Montana (100-110 knots) An early June heatwave continued Today across the Southwest U.S. and Southern Plains where temperatures reached well into the 90s and 100s once again Today while 850 mb temperatures ranged from +20/+36 degrees C while our 850 mb temp Today was just +8 degrees C, quite a change!

Tonight:

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight. Isolated showers or sprinkles are possible before 8 PM in far Northern-far Western parts of our area, otherwise it looks mainly dry through the night. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with winds out of the south or east under 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Dual low pressure, one off to our northwest and the other passing through the Central Plains will have an occluded front connected to it. Southerly winds along with a 30-40 knot low level jet will be found out ahead of this weather system which will transport deeper moisture into our area. PWS by Tuesday Afternoon are forecast to range from 0.90"-1.25" across our local area with dewpoints generally in the 50s. There should be some fairly decent lift taking place in our area thanks to the approaching low/front and also due to the two seperate jet streaks, the one to our east and the west approaching from the west. This will cause areas of rain and showers throughout Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Tuesday and Tuesday Night with some heavy downpours possible at times. The threat for thunderstorms is low during this period, with the best chance for any activity occurring in Koochiching, Itasca and Cass Counties Tuesday Evening as an area of marginal instability with CAPES up to 500 j/kg and Lifted Indices down to zero/-2 degrees C moves in from Northwestern Minnesota. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 50s and 60s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the south or east on Tuesday at 10-20 mph with south, east, or west winds Tuesday Night at 10-20 mph.

Rainfall totals from Tuesday into Tuesday Night:

Most locations should see upwards of one quarter inch of rain with localized higher amounts possible, especially in Northern Minnesota where some spots could pick up between one half to one inch of rain.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will be pulling off to our east on Wednesday with some lingering showers possible across our area behind this system, might even see an Afternoon thunderstorm or two in Northwest Wisconsin, but nothing severe is expected at this time. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees. Dry weather should take over across our area Wednesday Night and Thursday with lows Wednesday Night in the 40s with some 30s possible in the typical cold spots. Highs on Thursday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Thursday Night in the 40s and 50s.

The period from Thursday Night through the weekend will see an upper level trough take shape to our west and a ridge of high pressure over the Southern/Eastern U.S. A southwest flow aloft will develop across the Upper Midwest late this week into the weekend.

Looks like a cool and wet end of the week for our area as the main warm front remains to our south while high pressure stretches west-east across Canada. Occasional clusters of rain and possibly some embedded thunderstorms with heavier downpours will migrate through our area especially from late Thursday Night into Friday Night, then the bulk of the heavier rains may settle farther south for Saturday and Sunday. The forecast models continue to be in disagreement Today especially on how things set-up for Saturday and Sunday, some models keep the boundary close enough to our area to give us additional rain chances through the weekend, while others drop the front far enough south resulting in drier weather for most if not all of our local area.

One other thing that will probably develop from Friday into Saturday will be some fog, the fog could become especially thick near Lake Superior.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear This Evening then becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 53. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. Occasional rain, especially during the Afternoon. High 57 to 62. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Occasional rain. Low 48 to 53. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph becoming west Overnight. Chance of rain 60%.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. Showers possible. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 40 to 45.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.

.Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers possible late. Low 47 to 52. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy, areas of fog possible. Showers at times. High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 40%.

Normal High Temperature Today 69 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 46 degrees

Tim