Sunday, June 6, 2010

6/6/10: Sunday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:51 PM CDT, Sunday, June 6th, 2010

Here are some rainfall totals across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from 7 AM CDT Saturday through around 7 AM CDT Sunday... Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN (St. Louis County) 0.38"

Hibbing MN (St. Louis County) 0.23"

Ashland WI (Ashland County) 0.15"

Hayward WI (Sawyer County) 0.22"

2 miles South of Tower MN (St. Louis County) 0.55"

Embarrass MN (St. Louis County) 0.43"

4 miles East of Island Lake MN (St. Louis County) 0.28"

Silver Bay MN (Lake County) 0.18"

4 miles South of Bruno MN (Pine County) 0.16"

9 miles North of Bayfield WI (Bayfield County) 0.18"

Madeline Island WI: 0.23"

Winter WI (Sawyer County) 0.20"

Butternut WI (Ashland County) 0.33"

Upson WI (Iron County) 0.27"

Gurney WI (Iron County) 0.44"

Sarona WI (Washburn County) 0.26"

Note: A significant tornado outbreak developed Saturday Evening over portions of the Ohio Valley. 51 tornadoes were reported per Storm Prediction Center on Saturday with the majority of the tornadoes hitting Central-Northern Illinois, Northcentral Indiana, Southern lower Michigan, Northwest-Central Ohio. The death toll from Saturday's tornado outbreak has climbed to 8!

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Unseasonably cool air has pushed southwest out of Central Ontario Province Today as a surface trough which was in Northern Minnesota on Saturday drops south into Central Minnesota Today. This boundary combined with weak instability and quite a bit of cold air aloft was the focal point for more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Today with the bulk of the rain by This Afternoon shifting into Western-far Southern parts of our local area as dry air advects southwest from Central Canada. High temperatures Today were only in the mid 50s to low 60s which is 5 to around 10 degrees below average for early June. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged +6/+8 degrees C across our local area. Winds Today were out of the east under 20 mph.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Upper level pattern has amplified a bit Today with the zonal flow of previous days turning more N/NW Today as a vigorous and large upper level low remains in place just to our north-northeast. A strong Pacific flow continued Today from the Central Pacific through the Northwest U.S./Northern Rockies with a strong upper level low shifting slightly west-northwest into Southwestern Alaska per water vapor satellite imagery. Unusually strong jet stream winds (100-120 knots) continued once again Today from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Midwest into the Northeast U.S. which is seperating the cool air from around our area and Central Canada to the raging heat wave which is gripping the Southern-Southwest U.S. where high temperatures have reached well into the 90s and low 100s over the past few days.

Tonight:

A very cool night is upon us as partly-mostly cloudy skies and diminishing winds along with drier air spreading from northeast-southwest allows low temperatures to drop into the 30s and 40s, there could be some patchy frost by dawn in the traditional cold spots, areas of fog could also develop later in the night. Winds Tonight will be out of the north or east under 15 mph. Scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will dissipate before 9 PM from Bigfork and Walker down through Brainerd, Aitkin, and Pine City. No severe weather is expected from any thunderstorm early Tonight, but brief heavy downpours and occasional lightning strikes may occur.

Monday and Monday Night:

An area of high pressure will slide east from Western South Dakota through the Upper Midwest on Monday with the high exiting to our east by Monday Night. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast during this period across our area with the possibility for a few showers, mainly in Western-Southern areas. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Winds during this period will be out of the south or east under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Occasional showers are possible in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Tuesday into Wednesday as a complex low pressure system approaches from the west and south while dragging a cold front through our local area Tuesday Night/early Wednesday. The main instability/moisture axis will once again set-up well to our south, and that's where the best chance for thunderstorms and severe weather will occur for Tuesday/Tuesday Night. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Tuesday Night in the 40s and 50s. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Wednesday Night in the 40s and 50s.

Still looks like will see a pattern shift take place from Thursday through next weekend as a southwest flow aloft develops across the Upper Midwest with a 500 mb trough to our west and a 500 mb ridge across the Southern/Eastern U.S. The exact details concerning the placement of a warm front/stationary frontal boundary is uncertain Today with the GFS model shifting the boundary more to the south while the other long range models keep the boundary near or even slightly west/north of our area. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will likely develop and track northeast near this surface front from Thursday through next weekend, but whether or not this affects us or not will depend on the placement of the front.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Areas of fog possible late. Low 40 to 45. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Partly to mostly sunny. High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 48 to 53. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 60 to 65. Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. Showers possible. High 65 to 70.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 47 to 52.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 67 to 72.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 69 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 46 degrees

Tim