Friday, June 4, 2010

6/4/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:00 PM CDT, Friday, June 4th, 2010

Here are some rainfall totals across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from last night through 7 AM CDT Today. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN (St. Louis County) 0.17"

International Falls MN (Koochiching County) 0.22"

Brainerd MN (Crow Wing County) 0.93"

Hibbing MN (St. Louis County) 0.12"

Ashland WI (Ashland County) 0.23"

Hayward WI (Sawyer County) 0.79"

Northome MN (Koochiching County) 0.32"

8 miles South of Bigfork MN (Itasca County) 0.30"

Embarrass MN (St. Louis County) 0.13"

Littlefork MN (Koochiching County) 0.41"

Silver Bay MN (Lake County) 0.16"

Bruno MN (Pine County) 0.55"

Floodwood MN (St. Louis County) 0.26"

5 miles Northwest of Washburn WI (Bayfield County) 0.31"

Gordon WI (Douglas County) 0.59"

Solon Springs WI (Douglas County) 0.66"

Winter WI (Sawyer County) 0.99"

Webster WI (Burnett County) 0.81"

Upson WI (Iron County) 0.22"

Sarona WI (Washburn County) 0.56"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Low pressure averaging 1000 mb was centered in Southern Manitoba Province This Afternoon with a secondary low averaging 1002 mb centered in Northern Wisconsin, east of Hayward. An occluded front was connected to the lows with this boundary extending from Northern Minnesota to just east of Duluth and down through Central Wisconsin. A rather large area of rain pushed through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin last night and This Morning with still some lingering showers occurring This Afternoon in far Northeast Minnesota. Overcast skies earlier in the day gave way to some clearing by mid-late Morning across Northern Minnesota, this area of clearing has been pushing south/east and was spreading into Northeast-far Eastern Minnesota late This Afternoon.

The atmosphere has become a bit unstable across Northcentral-Eastcentral Minnesota This Afternoon thanks to the increasing amounts of sunshine. Latest meso-analysis indicates that CAPES have climbed to between 500/1000 j/kg in those areas with Lifted Indices from zero/-3 degrees C while Low Level Lapse Rates ranged from 6.5-8.0 c/km. Dewpoints This Afternoon were generally in the 50s with PWS of 0.70" across Northern Minnesota to 0.80"-1.10" from Northeast-Eastern Minnesota through all of Northwest Wisconsin. Isolated showers have been developing late This Afternoon across Northcentral Minnesota, but thunderstorm activity has been limited so far.

High temperatures Today ranged from the 50s from Superior and Downtown Duluth up along the North Shore of Lake Superior with 60s and 70s common elsewhere. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +8/+14 degrees C from Northeast to Southwest across our local area. Winds Today were out of the west, north, or east under 20 mph.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Fast west-east flow continued across the Northern half of the U.S. Today with a (552 meter) upper level low centered in Southern Manitoba Province per RUC model analysis. 100-120 knot jet stream winds extends all the way from the Central Pacific Ocean through the Northern Plains Today while a powerful 500 mb low remains nearly stationary in the Gulf Of Alaska.

Tonight:

A few showers or thunderstorms are possible This Evening across Northcentral-Eastcentral Minnesota, and possibly Northwest Wisconsin. The occluded front located in Northern Minnesota This Afternoon will move little during the night. Enough instability and moisture is in place for some showers/storms This Evening due to the front over our area. 30-40 knots of 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear combined with a 100 knot upper level jet across the Northern Plains along with an area of 40-45 knot westerly winds at 500 mb will result in an isolated severe weather risk before 9 PM This Evening, mainly for Koochiching...Itasca...and Western St. Louis Counties. Large hail to 1" in diameter and damaging wind gusts approaching 60 mph would be the main threats. Heavy downpours and dangerous lightning strikes could also occur. The threat for precipitation should come to an end by late Tonight. Partly-mostly cloudy skies with areas of fog can be expected Tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s with winds out of the west, north, or east under 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Scattered showers are possible throughout our area during this period with an isolated thunderstorm risk as well from Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Evening. Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Saturday with highs mainly in the 60s. Mostly cloudy skies and lows in the 40s and 50s are expected Saturday Night. Winds during this period will be out of the west or east under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

The weather pattern shows little change from Sunday through the middle of next week. A near zonal flow with some slight fluctuations will persist during this time frame. Upper level disturbances will continue to track from the Western U.S. through the Central Plains and Upper Midwest. Those systems will continue to bring a risk for some showers at times from Sunday through next Wednesday with the main zone for thunderstorm and possible severe weather activity remaining to our south. There continues to be some hints in the long range models Today that the upper level pattern may shift to more of a southwest flow by late next week, if this happens then the focus for thunderstorms and possibly some severe weather may migrate farther north.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Isolated showers before 10 PM. Low 47 to 52. Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Saturday... Considerable cloudiness. Showers at times, mainly during the Afternoon. High 62 to 67. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers at times. Low 47 to 52. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Showers at times. High 60 to 65. Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 65 to 70.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 48 to 53. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 69 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 46 degrees

Tim