Thursday, June 3, 2010

6/3/10: Thursday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:06 PM CDT, Thursday, June 3rd, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1982... A record low temperature of 30 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Partly-mostly sunny skies were found in our area Today with a mix of cirrus clouds approaching from the west along with scattered cumulus development over all areas, except for the North Shore of Lake Superior where a stable marine layer was in place Today. High temperatures Today topped out in the low-mid 70s with 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM sitting right around +10 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the south or east at 5-15 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured a weak area of high pressure 1011 mb centered in Eastcentral Iowa with a cold front across Southern Ontario Province. A broad area of low pressure averaging 1002 mb covered the Western Dakotas with a warm front extending through the Central Dakotas while a cold front moves into the extreme Western portions of the Dakotas late Today. Note: A rather large batch of rain has been making steady progress through Central/Northern North Dakota Today in association with that system to our west. The bulk of the steady rain was generally along and north of Interstate 94 with movement toward the east.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Near zonal flow (west-east) continued once again Today across the Northern half of the U.S per RUC model analysis. Main feature of interest for our area was the disturbance which was tracking east through the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains Today per water vapor satellite imagery. An upper level low was in place across Southeast Alberta Province This Afternoon with another large and nearly stationary 500 mb low covering the Gulf of Alaska. A strong jet >110 knots continued to stream in off the Central Pacific Ocean Today per RUC model analysis/water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

Clouds will be on the increase This Evening across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Low pressure along with it's warm front and cold front will move east into the Upper Midwest during the night with a 30-40 knot S/SW low level jet advecting deeper moisture into our area as PWS increase from 0.60"-0.70" This Afternoon to between 1.00"-1.40" by late Tonight.

Rain showers will overspread the entire area from west to east from mid-Evening through the Overnight hours. Rain will reach International Falls, Lake Winnie, and the Brainerd area between 9PM-11PM with rain spreading into the Iron Range, Twin Ports, and the I35 corridor between Midnight-2AM. Rain will then spread into Northwestern Wisconsin between 2AM-5AM... The atmosphere will be fairly stable Tonight with CAPES generally under 150 j/kg with Lifted Indices of around zero/+2 degrees C, however this is a fairly potent disturbance with strong lift associated with it along with a potent 100+ knot upper level jet to our west, isolated thunderstorms will likely be embedded with the rain showers, but widespread thunderstorm/severe weather is not expected Tonight in our area. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with south or east winds under 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

Low pressure will pass by to our south/southeast during this period with the warm front and cold front exiting our area by Friday Afternoon. The best chance for widespread shower activity should occur Tomorrow Morning into early Tomorrow Afternoon the way it looks now with some drying occurring from Friday Afternoon into Friday Night, however a lingering surface trough extending northwest of the low to our south could help to generate some additional showers across our area Tomorrow Afternoon and Evening, but these should be more scattered in nature if they do develop. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible Tomorrow and Tomorrow Evening, the chance for thunder could increase if we see some clearing take place Tomorrow Afternoon which would help to raise the instability just a bit, right now it appears that Northwest-Western parts of our area would have the best chance at seeing a few thunderstorms Tomorrow Afternoon-Evening, mainly from International Falls toward Grand Rapids, Walker, and Brainerd.

Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Friday with highs in the 50s and 60s, but some 70s are possible in Western-Southern areas. Lows Friday Night under partly-mostly cloudy skies will be in the 40s and 50s. Winds during this period will be out of the east, west, or south under 20 mph. The easterly wind near Lake Superior could lead to some areas of fog especially with the extra moisture around thanks to the rain that we get late Tonight and Tomorrow.

Rainfall totals from Tonight through Friday:

A widespread 0.10"-0.25" of rain is expected to fall across all of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with this system with locally higher amounts approaching 0.75" possible.

Extended Forecast:

An unsettled weather pattern looks to continue at times in the Upper Midwest from this weekend into the middle of next week and possibly beyond.

Jet stream pattern will change little with a near zonal flow which could amplify a tad late this weekend or early next week (more of a northwest flow for the Upper Midwest) but not all the models are showing this NW flow during that aforemetioned time period. There have been some signs per long range model guidance for more of a SW flow developing sometime late next week.

Several upper level disturbances will continue to track out of the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies and through the Upper Midwest from this weekend into the middle of next week. Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible with any one of those systems as they pass by.

High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be mainly in the 60s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Becoming mostly cloudy. Occasional rain developing between 12AM-2AM, isolated thunderstorms also possible. Low 50 to 55. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain increasing to 90% Overnight.

.Friday... Occasional rain ending during the mid to late Morning hours. Mostly cloudy, but some partial clearing is possible during the Afternoon. A few showers possible during the Afternoon. High 60 to 65. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph becoming north. Chance of rain 90% during the Morning and 30% during the Afternoon.

.Friday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers possible during the Evening. Low 48 to 53. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 63 to 68. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night... Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 47 to 52. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. High 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 65 to 70.

Normal High Temperature Today 69 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 45 degrees

Tim