Wednesday, June 30, 2010

6/30/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:08 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 30th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1988... A record low temperature of 36 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

...Top 10 wettest Junes on record at the following locations in Northwest Wisconsin... Source: NWS Duluth, MN...

*Solon Springs, WI: 8.01" of rain during June 2010 making it the 9th wettest June on record. The wettest June occurred back in 1967 when 9.92" of rain fell.

*Gordon, WI: 6.34" of rain fell during June 2010 making it the 8th wettest June on record. The wettest June occurred in 1981 when 9.10" of rain fell

Note: If no precipitation falls at the Duluth Airport before Midnight Tonight, then this will be the first time with back to back days with no measurable precipitation (at least a trace) since June 2nd and 3rd.

Another chilly Morning in portions of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Here are some low temperatures from earlier Today, source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 44 degrees

International Falls MN: 36 degrees

Hibbing MN: 35 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 39 degrees

Grand Marais MN: 36 degrees

Orr MN: 36 degrees

Cook MN: 37 degrees

Eveleth MN: 37 degrees

Aitkin MN: 39 degrees

Cloquet MN: 39 degrees

Hayward WI: 39 degrees

Superior WI: 43 degrees

Kabetogama MN: 38 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: 36 degrees

Embarrass MN: 32 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: 33 degrees

3 miles South of Ashland WI: 43 degrees

Butternut WI: 40 degrees

Upson WI: 39 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Changes in the weather pattern were starting to occur Today across portions of our area as a strong ridge of high pressure heads east into Northwest Wisconsin while a weak disturbance combined with some F-GEN forcing and a little push of moist air rides east-southeast across Northcentral Minnesota This Afternoon or on the backside of the high to our east. The result from this has been for an increase in mid level clouds along with an area of sprinkles or light rain showers in Northcentral Minnesota This Afternoon while mainly sunny skies continued in Northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures Today were in the lower to middle 70s Today, but 60s were common at the head of Lake Superior and along portions of the North Shore of Lake Superior. The lake air doesn't have quite the bite as it has recently, however, and this is partially due to water temperatures which have climbed into the middle 50s/lower 60s in portions of Western Lake Superior in recent days per MSGC website. One last day with low dewpoints Today with readings in the 40s and 50s across our area while Afternoon PWS ranged from 0.50"-0.80" along and east of a line from about International Falls to Duluth down to Trego, while Western parts of our area from Grand Rapids and Hinckley back through Aitkin and the Brainerd Lakes region had PWS up to 1.00" late Today. Winds across our area were variable to calm in Northwest Wisconsin with southeast or east winds in Northern-Eastern Minnesota under 20 mph.

Today's upper level analysis:

Northwest flow aloft covered Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today per RUC model analysis with an upper level ridge (588-594 meters) in place over the Northern-Central Plains where high temperatures Today reached the 80s and 90s with even some lower 100s in Central South Dakota with dewpoints especially over the Dakotas in the very steamy mid/upper 60s Today! 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +9/+12 degrees C in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast Minnesota to +13/+16 degrees C in Western-Southwest areas. +20/+32 degree C H85 temperatures were widespread across the Dakotas and Western High Plains Today and some of that air will advect E/NE into the Upper Midwest during the next three days.

Tonight:

High pressure will be centered to our east Tonight with some warm/moist advection continuing to spread east through the Northern half of Minnesota. A warm front organizing over the Central Dakotas This Afternoon will also lift E-NE Tonight with a 30-50 knot low level jet developing to our west. A few sprinkles or light rain showers are possible in Northern/Eastern Minnesota This Evening, otherwise it should remain dry Tonight with lows mainly in the 50s, but some 40s are possible in the typical cold spots in Northwest Wisconsin and extreme Northeast Minnesota. Winds Tonight will be out of the southeast or east under 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Southerly winds will begin to increase during this period thanks to a tightening pressure gradient between high pressure to our east and low pressure centered well to our west. A rather robust low level jet (30-45 knots) will also develop across the Upper Midwest during this period and this will help in transporting deeper moisture and warmer air into our area. Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s and 80s, but 60s will be common from Superior and Downtown Duluth and along the North Shore of Lake Superior thanks to an easterly component to those south winds. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will rise into the 50s and 60s across our area during this period with PWS ranging from 0.80"-1.25". The warm front lifting northeast through our area could cause a few showers or thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday Night, mainly in far Northern-far Northeast Minnesota, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm is even possible as far south as Hibbing and Two Harbors on Thursday. Partly-mostly sunny skies can be expected Tomorrow with clear-partly cloudy skies Tomorrow Night. Winds out of the south will increase to 10-25 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Southwest upper level flow will be in place over the Upper Midwest from Friday through early next week. A cold front which will reach the Dakotas Tomorrow through Saturday will make slow headway through Minnesota and Wisconsin this weekend into early next week. It does appear that there will be ample amounts of moisture in place along and ahead of this boundary to support a heavy rain threat as dewpoints surge into the 60s with even some 70s possible Saturday and or Sunday, PWS look to range from 1.25"-1.75" per 15z SREF model from Today. All this could create a heavy rain event at times over some portions of the Upper Midwest especially from Saturday Night into Sunday Evening. Thunderstorms will occur as well from late Saturday into Sunday, but the overall severe threat looks relatively low at this point due to marginal amounts of instability...

High temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be mainly in the 80s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a few locales possibly getting close to 90 degrees! Low temperatures Friday Night and Saturday Night will be generally in the 60s, but it's not out of the question that some areas stay in the lower 70s Saturday Night.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Variable cloudiness. A few sprinkles possible This Evening. Low 50 to 55. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... More humid. Warmer, especially away from Lake Superior. Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 58 to 63. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Warm, breezy, and humid. Partly cloudy. High 81 to 86. South winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Friday Night... Warm and humid. Mostly clear. Low 62 to 67.

.Saturday... Warm, breezy, and humid. Partly cloudy. High 83 to 88. South winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Saturday Night... Very warm, humid. Late night showers or thunderstorms possible under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Low 67 to 72. Chance of rain 30%.

.Fourth of July... Humid. Occasional showers or thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 60%.

Normal High Temperature Today 74 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 52 degrees

Tim