Monday, June 28, 2010

6/28/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:09 PM CDT, Monday, June 28th, 2010

30 Day outlook for Duluth, MN...Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on June 17th, 2010:

*July 2010: For Duluth, equal chances for above normal, near normal, or below normal temperatures and precipitation.

90 day outlook for Duluth, MN...Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on June 17th, 2010:

*July through September 2010: For Duluth, equal chances for above normal, near normal, or below normal temperatures and precipitation.

Weather tidbits: Source: NWS Duluth, MN and Chanhassen, MN.

*Unofficial total of 39 tornadoes in Minnesota from June 17th thru the 27th, 2010.

*June 17th, 2010 was initally the most active tornado day in 2010 across the Country with 77 tornado reports in North Dakota, Minnesota, far Northern Iowa, and far Northwest Wisconsin.

*199 severe weather reports across the Chanhassen, MN NWS County warning area from June 17th thru the 26th, prior to this period there were only 23 severe weather reports.

Here are the preliminary tornado numbers from the past few severe weather events that have struck Minnesota...

6/17/10: 20
6/21/10: 5
6/25/10: 7
6/26/10: 7

*The EF-2 tornado in Pine County MN on June 17th, 2010 was the first strong tornado (EF-2/F2) since the Siren, Wisconsin F3 tornado that hit on June 18th, 2001.

*June 17th, 2010 was the first time since June 11th, 2005 with at least 3 tornadoes across the Duluth, MN NWS County warning area.

*Prior to June 17th, 2010, it had been over 5 years since Pine County MN had it's last tornado, dating back to June 11th, 2005.

*The 4 violent tornadoes (EF-4) on June 17th, 2010...3 in Minnesota and 1 in North Dakota was the greatest number of violent tornadoes in any one event since the Super Tuesday Outbreak of February 5th-6th, 2008.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Cooler air was spilling south out of Central Canada and into the Upper Midwest Today as a secondary cold front which moved through last night and early Today settles south into Northern Iowa This Afternoon. Partly-mostly cloudy skies covered our local area Today with high temperatures mainly in the 60s to around 70 degrees while dewpoints have fallen into the 40s with PWS generally around 0.60". Winds Today were out of the north or northwest at 10-20 mph.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

The flow aloft was beginning to amplify Today as a potent upper level low (546 meters) begins it's journey to the south out of the Hudson Bay/Northern Ontario Province area in Canada. Note: Surface temperatures are holding in the 38-40 degree range This Afternoon in Southern Hudson Bay Canada while a rather large area of zero/-2 degree C 850 mb temperatures were pushing south from Ontario Province Canada late Today near this upper low. The airmass coming into Minnesota won't be nearly as cold as what was occurring to our north/northeast Today, but it will still be rather crisp, especially during the Overnight hours.

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

Upper level low will be centered to our north/northeast during this period with a northerly flow aloft continuing to advect cooler air south from Ontario Province and into our local area. 850 mb temperatures which ranged from +6/+8 degrees C in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon will fall to between zero/+6 degrees C by late Tonight and most of Tuesday. Low temperatures Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees, but 30s are likely in the typical cold spots...There might even be some patchy frost late Tonight and again late Tomorrow Night in low lying areas, well away from Lake Superior. Partly-mostly cloudy skies This Evening will become clear-partly cloudy later in the night. Mostly sunny skies are expected Tomorrow with mostly clear skies Tomorrow Night. Winds during this period will be out of the north or northwest under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Upper level low will pull farther east and away from our area by mid-week while high pressure initially over the Northern Plains Today heads through the Upper Midwest for Tuesday and Wednesday before exiting to our east by Thursday. Dry weather will continue across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday with highs in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Southerly winds will commence later this week which will begin to transport deeper moisture north into the Upper Midwest while a spike in temperatures also occurs. Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s. An area of low pressure and cold front will track east out of the Northern Plains and through the Upper Midwest Saturday and Sunday, this system could bring a few showers or thunderstorms to our area at that time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 43 to 48, a little warmer closer to Lake Superior. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday... Mostly sunny. High 65 to 70. Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 43 to 48. Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 68 to 73.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 57 to 62.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 81 to 86.

Normal High Temperature Today 74 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 52 degrees

Tim