Wednesday, June 23, 2010

6/23/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:35 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 23rd, 2010

...All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*FLOOD ADVISORY*

A Flood Advisory is in effect until 7:15 PM CDT This Evening for Southcentral Sawyer County in Northwest Wisconsin. Sawyer County Sheriff and other officials reported that the Price Dam of the Burnet River including Winter Lake was at capacity due to heavy rainfall over the past few days. Townships that may be affected include: Winter, Radisson, Meadowbrook, and Weirgor. Roads that may be affected include: County Highway W. State Highway 27 and County Highway D. Secondary roads that may be affected include: Dantzman Road and West Pasanen Road.

Isolated severe thunderstorms erupted late Tuesday Afternoon and early Tuesday Evening over portions of Northwestern Wisconsin...Here are the storm reports per NWS Duluth, MN.

*6:32 PM CDT 6/22/10: 2 miles North of Hawthorne, WI: Douglas County. 1.00" diameter hail

*7:31 PM CDT 6/22/10: 14 miles East-Northeast Solon Springs, WI: Bayfield County. 0.88" diameter hail. Up to nickel sized hail with estimated winds of 30-40 mph.

*7:34 PM CDT 6/22/10: 2 miles North-Northeast of Upper Eau Claire: Bayfield County. Thunderstorm wind gust to 60 mph (estimated)

*7:48 PM CDT 6/22/10: 6 miles Southwest of Drummond, WI: Bayfield County. Thunderstorm wind damage...Trees down across Tri Lakes Road, Southwest of Drummond.

*7:51 PM CDT 6/22/10: Drummond, WI: Bayfield County. 1.00" diameter hail.

*8:12 PM CDT 6/22/10: 9 miles Southeast of Drummond, WI: Bayfield County. 1.75" diameter hail.

*8:16 PM CDT 6/22/10: Namekagon, WI: Bayfield County. 1.75" diameter hail. Started out as penny sized hail, increased to golfball sized hail.

*8:21 PM CDT 6/22/10: 7 miles East of Cable, WI: Bayfield County. Funnel cloud. A persistent funnel cloud reported.

*8:22 PM CDT 6/22/10: 2 miles West of Namekagon, WI: Bayfield County. 1.25" diameter hail along with very strong winds per report from the Garmisch Resort.

*8:23 PM CDT 6/22/10: Namekagon, WI: Bayfield County. 1.25" diameter hail. Half-dollar sized hail covering the ground.

*8:34 PM CDT 6/22/10: Clam Lake, WI: Ashland County. 0.88" diameter hail and high winds.

*8:39 PM CDT 6/22/10: 3 miles West of Clam Lake, WI: Ashland County. 1.00" diameter hail reported near Lake five.

*8:40 PM CDT 6/22/10: 1 mile Southwest of Clam Lake, WI: Sawyer County. Thunderstorm wind damage. 2-2.5 foot diameter trees blown down.

*8:41 PM CDT 6/22/10: 1 mile South of Clam Lake, WI: Ashland County. 1.00" diameter hail.

*9:33 PM CDT 6/22/10: 8 miles North of Park Falls, WI: Ashland County. Funnel cloud. Rotating wall cloud with a funnel that went down briefly and then lifted back into the cloud.

Here are some rainfall totals from Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Tuesday and Tuesday Night. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Phillips WI: 3.69". Water was reported to be covering Raske Road and Highway 13.

Gordon WI: 1.91"

Winter WI: 3.96"

Webster WI: 2.26"

Gurney WI: 1.76"

High Bridge DOT: 1.06"

Sarona WI: 0.65"

Upson WI: 0.88"

Solon Springs WI: 0.52"

Hayward WI: 0.24"

Ashland WI: 0.11"

Bruno MN: 0.55"

A surge of very warm air pushed north into portions of Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 86 degrees, downtown areas were in the upper 50s/60s.

Brainerd MN: 88 degrees

Pine River MN: 84 degrees

Aitkin MN: 86 degrees

Cloquet MN: 84 degrees

McGregor MN: 86 degrees

Hayward WI: 87 degrees

Siren WI: 87 degrees

Phillips WI: 88 degrees

Bruno MN: 87 degrees

Hinckley MN: 85 degrees

Gordon WI: 89 degrees

Solon Springs WI: 88 degrees

Winter WI: 86 degrees

Butternut WI: 88 degrees

Upson WI: 86 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A large complex of rain and thunderstorms erupted late last night/early This Morning across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota. Some of those storms turned severe early This Morning with very heavy rainfall also reported which has led to some flooding. Rainfall estimates per Duluth Doppler Radar indicate that the heaviest corridor of rain from this large thunderstorm complex affected areas from Pine City MN through areas south of a line from Superior to Poplar to Washburn in Northwest Wisconsin...Rain totals from Pine City, and south of those above mentioned Cities in Wisconsin ranged from 1.00"-3.00", but isolated pockets of 4.00"-6+" may have fallen based on doppler radar. Those thunderstorms remained south of Duluth/Superior, but one heck of a lightning show was visible in the southeastern sky early This Morning.

An unsettled, humid day with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across Northern/Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today as a strong upper level disturbance/upper trough associated with some cold air aloft head east through Minnesota. Precipitation Today was moving in two different directions...The showers in Northern Minnesota have been dropping S/SE, while the showers in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin have been moving E/NE! Due to the extensive cloud-cover Today, instability has been kept down with Afternoon CAPES generally under 1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of +2/-5 degrees C. High temperatures Today were in the middle 60s to middle 70s with dewpoints holding in the 55-65 degree range while Afternoon PWS were in the 1.00"-1.40" range with 850 mb td's of +8/+12 degrees.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

(594 meter) upper level ridge covered the Southern tier of the U.S. A vigorous upper trough/disturbance was moving quickly toward the east through the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes. Strong upper level winds of 70-90 knots covered portions of the Upper Midwest and Central-Northern Great Lakes Today per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

The strong disturbance over Minnesota This Afternoon will exit off to our east Tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will end between 8PM-11PM, dry conditions will then take place Overnight along with areas of fog. Partly-mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 50s can be expected Tonight with some 40s in the typical cold spots. Winds Tonight will be out of the north or west under 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

An area of high pressure will move quickly east through the Upper Midwest on Thursday before exiting to our east Thursday Night. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast during this period with a few showers or thunderstorms possible from Thursday Afternoon through Thursday Night, mainly affecting the Northern half of Minnesota...Or north of a line from Backus to Duluth. Instability looks fairly limited during this period thus no severe weather is expected. Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s to lower 60s. Winds will be out of the north, south, or west under 15 mph Tomorrow and from the south under 15 mph Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

Another period of unsettled weather is shaping up for Friday through Sunday, but there are quite a few details that need to be worked out with the models during the next day or so which pertains to what area/s will have the greatest chance for heavy rain/possible flooding, and also in regards to the severe thunderstorm threat. The forecast models are not in very good agreement Today on where the warm front/stationary front will set-up, and this will be a major player in determining where the heavy rain/severe weather threat will be, and also will determine whether or not the weekend will be cold and foggy near Lake Superior or if the marine layer will be less of an issue.

Note: The Storm Prediction Center has portions of our area, mainly west of a line from Northome to Duluth Minnesota into far Northwest Wisconsin in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Friday and Friday Night.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the 60s and 70s, but some 80s are possible depending on the amount of sunshine and the timing of the rain. Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Saturday's high temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s, but 80s or even 90s could sneak up into Southern areas, while locations near Lake Superior could hold in the 50s! Lows Saturday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Looking ahead into next week has seen a flip-flop of sorts with the long range models. The GFS model which had the more amplified/cooler solution for our area next week has become more progressive with any cooling confined to early-possibly mid part of next week. The EUROPEAN model has now trended toward Tuesday's GFS model with much cooler temperatures as a cut-off low develops to our east leading to a much more amplified northerly flow affecting the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes for most of next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Scattered showers through 10 PM under mostly cloudy skies. Becoming partly cloudy late with areas of fog developing. Low 50 to 55. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Areas of fog early. Partly to mostly sunny. High 73 to 78. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 53 to 58. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday... Showers or thunderstorms possible at times. Mostly cloudy. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday Night... Showers or thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 60%.

.Saturday... Areas of fog. Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 73 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 50 degrees

Tim