Tuesday, June 22, 2010

6/22/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:08 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

...Another tornado reported from last Thursday, June 17th, 2010... Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

*At 8:05 PM CDT 6/17/10, the public reported a brief tornado touch down near Moose Willow State Wildlife Management Area, 1 mile North-Northeast of Haypoint, Minnesota...Aitkin County.

Zero days above 80 degrees at International Falls, Minnesota for the month of June...Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

*Through June 22nd, 2010 there have been zero days with a maximum temperature of at least 80 degrees at International Falls, MN. If the remainder of June 2010 fails to have at least 1 day at or above 80 degrees, then it will tie with 1947, 1982, and 1985 in year's that have failed to produce at least one day with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees.

June 2010 temperature stats for Duluth, MN:

*Number of days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees: 6, ending on the 22nd. June 2009 produced 11 days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees.

*Number of days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees: 2, ending on the 22nd. June 2009 produced 6 days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees.

Precipitation information:

*The period from May 23rd through June 21st, 2010 has had 7.67" of rain at the Duluth Airport. To put that into perspective: Our average precipitation total for April and May combined is just 5.04", which means that we've had more rain in about a month's time then what we typically see in a two month period!

Here are some rainfall totals across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Monday, June 21st, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 0.38"

International Falls MN: 0.25"

Hibbing MN: 0.64"

Ashland WI: 1.22"

Hayward WI: 0.79"

Northome MN: 1.09"

3 miles East of Orr MN: 1.08"

9 miles North of Bayfield WI: 1.30"

5 miles Northwest of Washburn WI: 1.57"

Madeline Island WI: 1.31"

Brule WI: 1.82"

Phillips WI: 1.84"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A foggy start for some parts of our area gave way to partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies by mid-Morning with skies This Afternoon varying between partly sunny in Northern Minnesota to sunny in Northwest Wisconsin/Eastern Minnesota. High temperatures Today ranged from the 60s and lower 70s from Superior and Downtown Duluth and along the North Shore of Lake Superior with upper 70s to middle 80s for the remainder of our area. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +14/+18 degrees C with 850 mb td's of +8/+13 degrees C in Western areas. Dewpoints This Afternoon were running mostly in the 60s with PWS of 1.00"-1.40"! It's been a dry day in terms of any precipitation around our area, but the atmosphere has become quite unstable This Afternoon with latest meso-analysis indicating CAPES of 1000-2000 j/kg across most of our local area along with Lifted Indices of -3/-9 degrees C from northeast to southwest. Lapse Rates were also very steep and ranged from 7.0-7.5 c/km. A few showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop during the past hour near Lake Mille Lacs in Eastcentral Minnesota while another rather vigorous looking thunderstorm drops S/SE out of Southern Ontario Province toward International Falls MN late Today. Surface map as of 3 PM features a trough/cold front across Western Minnesota with some sort of a warm front (moisture gradient type feature) from about Interstate 94 in Central Minnesota while a stationary front was located over the Central Plains.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Southwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today. Three disturbances were visibile on water vapor satellite imagery. The first was pulling off to the E/NE as it tracks through Southern Ontario Province... The second was an upper level low (570 meters) across Southeast Saskatchewan-Southern Manitoba Province in Canada with movement toward the east. The third was an upper level low (576 meters) which was moving E/SE through Western Montana-Southern Idaho-far Western Wyoming. An upper level trough was advancing south/east out of Southwest Canada and the Pacific Northwest-Northcentral Rockies Today a 90-100 knot jet streak pushing northeast out of the Western High Plains late Today per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

The main concern at least for This Evening will be the extent of any severe weather...

Things appear to be coming together for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms This Evening across Northern/Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a few severe thunderstorms likely as well, the main corridor for this possible severe weather seems to be setting up along and west of a line from International Falls and Hibbing southeast to the Twin Ports and then into Northwest Wisconsin generally from Port Wing to Park Falls. Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the greatest threat, although an isolated tornado risk is also possible through mid-Evening, generally around the I94 corridor in Central Minnesota, possibly as far north as Crow Wing, Aitkin, and Pine Counties in Minnesota. The low level jet isn't the best, but 15-30 knots is enough when combined with 0-1 KM and 0-3 KM SRH of around 150 m2/2 and the ample instability and shear and the stronger mid/upper level winds in place to promote an isolated risk for tornadoes and supercells.

It appears that Northern Minnesota will dry out Overnight while a risk for a few more showers and thunderstorms will continue in parts of Northwest Wisconsin and perhaps Eastcentral Minnesota.

Lows Tonight under partly-mostly cloudy skies will be in the 50s and 60s with winds out of the south, north, or east under 15 mph. Areas of fog could develop once again later in the night.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

A cold front which was in the process of developing This Afternoon in Western Minnesota will push south/east Tonight, likely reach Northwest Wisconsin/Eastern Minnesota Tomorrow Morning before exiting to our south/east Tomorrow Afternoon. Some cold air aloft moving in behind this boundary along with it's upper level trough could result in the development of a few showers or thunderstorms in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow and early Tomorrow Night. Small hail and gusty winds could occur in any stronger storm that develops, but severe weather is not expected at this time. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast during this period with winds out of the north or west at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure will push through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest from Wednesday Night into Thursday, this high will then exit to our east by late Thursday as low pressure takes shape over the Rockies. This low combined with a warm front and cold front will move northeast into the Upper Midwest from Friday through the weekend which will result in the potential for some more showers or thunderstorms at times across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. A few of these storms could become severe either Friday or Saturday the way it looks now. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s Friday and Saturday, but it will be cooler near Lake Superior. Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

It appears that some sort of pattern shift may take place the early to mid part of next week, but for how long (if it does change) is uncertain at the moment. The GFS model has been the most amplified solution for next week with a sharper northerly 500 mb flow affecting the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes resulting in cool temperatures. The EUROPEAN model is much less amplified with only a brief shift in the upper level pattern early next week before a W/SW flow aloft becomes established once again around the middle or end of next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Humid. Variable cloudiness with areas of fog which could be dense at times. A few showers or thunderstorms possible This Evening. Low 55 to 60. Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming north. East winds at 5 to 15 mph closer to Lake Superior becoming north.

.Wednesday... Variable cloudiness. A few showers or thunderstorms possible. High 71 to 76. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday Night... A few showers or thunderstorms possible early, otherwise partly cloudy. Low 52 to 57. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 72 to 77.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Friday... Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 68 to 73 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 30%.

Normal High Temperature Today 73 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 50 degrees

Tim