Saturday, June 19, 2010

6/19/10: Saturday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:38 PM CDT, Saturday, June 19th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1992... A record low temperature of 34 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

EF-0/EF-1 Tornado confirmed on Thursday, June 17th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has confimed that an EF-0 to EF-1 tornado occurred at 8:55 PM CDT, Thursday, June 17th, 2010 in parts of Pine County Minnesota and Burnett County in Northwest Wisconsin. The tornado occurred in a portion of the Saint Croix River Valley...Between Rush City Minnesota and Grantsburg Wisconsin. At 8:55 PM CDT, local law enforcement reported a tornado on the ground over Southeast Pine County Minnesota or 5 miles Southwest of Grantsburg Wisconsin. Trained weather spotters and storm chasers reported extensive storm damage due to the tornado. The tornado tracked northeast along the Saint Croix River Valley along the Minnesota/Wisconsin state line, mainly affecting recreational land, but residents between Rush City and Rock Creek Minnesota and from Grantsburg to Yellow Lake in Wisconsin were impacted. The worst of the damage was over far Southeastern Pine County Minnesota where the tornado was rated as a strong EF-1 with estimated winds to 110 mph! Multiple homes sustained significant property damage. 2 injuries were also reported at a residence with a mobile home on the north side of Highway 70, 1/2 mile west of the Saint Croix Bridge in far Southeastern Pine County Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A stationary front was centered along the Ontario/Minnesota border to Northern Lake Superior late Today while the potent area of low pressure which was off to our northwest/north on Friday moves into Northern Quebec Province Today. Winds were rather gusty through This Morning, but wind speeds have relaxed quite a bit around our area This Afternoon with west or north winds generally under 20 mph. Clouds were pretty extensive Today across our area with some spotty light sprinkles at times, mainly over Northeast Minnesota. High temperatures Today were in the middle 60s to lower 70s with a few locales in far Northern Minnesota holding in the lower 60s. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +9/+12 degrees C.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

W/SW flow aloft was in place Today over the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis. Strong upper level disturbance was moving rapidly toward the east as it passes to the north of Lake Superior Today. An upper level low (564 meters) west centered in Western Oregon Today per RUC model analysis with a slow track toward the south/east. An upper level ridge (594 meters) was in place over portions of the Central-Southern Plains Today per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

An area of high pressure averaging 1018 mb will move from the Central Dakotas into the Upper Midwest Tonight. Partly-mostly cloudy skies can be expected in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with brief sprinkles ending early in Northeast Minnesota. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with winds out of the north or west under 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

High pressure will head east and away from our area during this period while a stationary front sits well to our south. Partly-mostly sunny skies are expected across our area on Sunday with highs mainly in the 70s, but it may be cooler at times closer to Lake Superior. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow Night with lows mainly in the 50s. Scattered showers or thunderstorms will develop at times near the boundary to our south, but right now it appears that this activity will remain to our south. Winds during this period will be out of the south, west, or east around 15 mph or less.

Extended Forecast:

Monday through Tuesday Night will continue to feature a frontal boundary to our south while some disturbances track east out of the Northern Plains. The potential does exist for some bouts of showers or thunderstorms in portions of our area early next week. Severe weather chances will hinge upon how far north that boundary in Iowa can get, as well as the amount of instability that can develop this far north. The 12z GFS model from Today shows strong instability developing across Northwest Wisconsin and Northern-Eastern Minnesota on Tuesday, but the 12z NAM-WRF model keeps the bulk of this instability farther south. It looks like will have a period of calmer weather around the middle of next week, but by late next or next weekend things could become somewhat active once again.

High temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will be mainly in the 70s with a few 80s also possible. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Daytime highs could be cooler near Lake Superior both Monday and Tuesday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Considerable cloudiness early with skies becoming partly cloudy late. Low 50 to 55. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 71 to 76 but it could turn cooler at times closer to Lake Superior. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 52 to 57. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 68 to 73 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 73 to 78.

Normal High Temperature Today 72 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 49 degrees

Tim