Friday, June 18, 2010

6/18/10: Friday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:47 PM CDT, Friday, June 18th, 2010

...A MAJOR AND DEADLY TORNADO OUTBREAK DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF THURSDAY, JUNE 17TH, 2010... THE PRELIMINARY TORNADO COUNT IS AT 36 PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER...IF THIS NUMBER HOLDS-UP, THEN IT WILL GO DOWN AS THE BIGGEST TORNADO OUTBREAK TO EVER HIT THE STATE OF MINNESOTA...

Note: Death toll is up to 3 in Minnesota with several injuries also reported due to Thursday's severe weather and tornado outbreak.

Top 10 biggest tornado outbreaks that have occurred in Minnesota. Source: Paul Huttner MPR.

June 16th, 1992: 27 tornadoes
July 1st, 1997: 18 tornadoes
June 11th, 2001: 16 tornadoes
June 13th, 2001: 16 tornadoes
June 28th, 1979: 15 tornadoes
June 24th, 2003: 15 tornadoes
July 21st, 1995: 14 tornadoes
October 26th, 1996: 14 tornadoes
March 29th, 1998: 14 tornadoes
July 25th, 2000: 14 tornadoes

*Survey teams from National Weather Service Offices at Duluth, Minnesota. Chanhassen, Minnesota. And Grand Forks, North Dakota will be touring towns and cities in Minnesota/Northwest Wisconsin during the next few days that were hit by tornadoes on Thursday. Detailed path lengths, strengths, and ratings will be issued in coming days.

*As of This Afternoon: 65 reports of tornadoes on Thursday, June 17th, 2010 which affected portions of Northern, Central, and Eastern North Dakota...Western, Central, Southern, and far Eastern Minnesota...A small portion of Northwestern Wisconsin...And far Northern Iowa...

Minnesota tornado count from Thursday: 36
North Dakota tornado count from Thursday: 20
Iowa tornado count from Thursday: 5
Wisconsin tornado count from Thursday: 4

*The first tornado to touch-down during this outbreak happened at 2:31 PM CDT Thursday, June 17th, 2010 in North Dakota...The final tornado to touch-down happened at 9:08 PM CDT Thursday, June 17th, 2010 in Northwestern Wisconsin.

*The first tornado to touchdown in Minnesota during this outbreak occurred at 3:45 PM CDT, Thursday, June 17th, 2010, 3 miles North of Leaf Valley in Douglas County...Western Minnesota.

Here are the local storm reports that happened in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Thursday, June 17th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Note: Additional storm reports continue to come into the NWS Duluth, MN This Afternoon.

*2:15 PM CDT: Itasca County: 11 miles Northeast of Bena, Minnesota: 1.00" diameter hail and 60 mph winds (estimated) Strong winds blew down a few trees at the Lake Winnie Resort and Campground at Interstate Highway 9 and Highway 46.

*12:57 PM CDT: Cass County: 2 miles South of Backus, Minnesota: 1.75" diameter hail. 1.00" diameter hail was still lying on the ground at 1:35 PM CDT. Larger hail when it fell, possibly up to Golfball size.

*1:10 PM CDT: Cass County: Hackensack, Minnesota: 1.00" diameter hail.

*1:47 PM CDT: Cass County: 6 miles Southwest of Bena, Minnesota: 2.75" diameter hail. Hail started small and gradually increased to golfball size with a few larger stones up to baseball size reported at and near the new Leech Lake Campground. Also, a 2nd hand report of hail damage to vehicles and awnings to buildings around the city of Bena and to the northeast.

*1:47 PM CDT: Cass County: 6 miles Southwest of Bena, Minnesota: Substanial wind damage. Wind blew hard enough to blow water through seals around windows on the Campground Lodge during the height of the storm. A 100 pound access cover on roof was thrown the entire length of the roof. Damage to siding and shingles. Covers were thrown off boat lift. Trees downed. Winds could have been an excess of 70 mph based on uprooted and snapped trees.

*2:00 PM CDT: Cass County: Bena, Minnesota: 1.75" diameter hail.

*2:01 PM CDT: Cass County: 2 miles Northwest of Bena, Minnesota: 1.00" diameter hail.

*2:10 PM CDT: Cass County: 8 miles northeast of Bena, Minnesota: 1.00" diameter hail. Tree limbs downed due to strong winds.

*2:15 PM CDT: Itasca County: 6 miles Southwest of Inger, Minnesota: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Small trees blown down across road at East End of Lake Winnibigoshish.

*2:30 PM CDT: Itasca County: 2 miles Northwest of Bowstring, Minnesota: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Large branches about 8-10 inches in diameter and a few trees downed.

*3:00 PM CDT: Itasca County: Wirt, Minnesota: 0.88" diameter hail.

*3:00 PM CDT: Itasca County: North Star Lake, Minnesota: 0.88" diameter hail.

*3:30 PM CDT: Itasca County: Bowstring Lake, Minnesota: 0.75" diameter hail.

*4:36 PM CDT: St. Louis County: 10 miles East of Togo, Minnesota: 0.88" diameter hail.

*4:39 PM CDT: St. Louis County: Snake Trail, Minnesota: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. Severe wind gusts bending pine trees to the ground. Also a few trees blown down.

*4:50 PM CDT: St. Louis County: Linden Grove, Minnesota: Thunderstorm Wind Damage. A few trees down along Highway 1, near Linden Grove and also along Highway 5, south to near Side Lake.

*6:20 PM CDT: Crow Wing County: 4 miles Southeast of Fifty Lakes, Minnesota: Some tree branches blown down.

*7:53 PM CDT: Aitkin County: Swatara, Minnesota: 1.75" diameter hail.

*8:20 PM CDT: Aitkin County: Jacobson, Minnesota: 0.88" diameter hail.

*8:20 PM CDT: Aitkin County: 1 mile West of Hill City, Minnesota: 0.88" diameter hail.

*8:21 PM CDT: Aitkin County: 1 mile south of Aitkin, Minnesota: Non-thunderstorm wind damage. 12" diameter pine tree down at the south side of Aitkin.

*8:27 PM CDT: Aitkin County: Jacobson, Minnesota: 1.50" diameter hail. Reported by a State Forest Employee. Few trees down in the Savanna State Forest. Any damage was very sporadic.

*8:30 PM CDT: Itasca County: 2 miles Northwest of Moose Lake, Minnesota: 0.75" diameter hail.

TORNADO REPORTS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FROM THURSDAY, JUNE 17TH, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

*6:45 PM CDT: Crow Wing County: 4 miles East-Northeast of Breezy Point, Minnesota: Spotters were tracking a tornado on the ground near Pelican Lake.

*8:55 PM CDT: Pine County: 5 miles West of Grantsburg, Wisconsin: Tornado crossed Highway 70, 1/2 mile west of the Minnesota/Wisconsin state line. 3 injuries were reported. Highway 70 was closed due to debris and powerlines over the road.

*9:00 PM CDT: Burnett County: 3 miles west of Grantsburg, Wisconsin: Powerlines down and damage to a home observed near Grantsburg on Highway 70. Likely tornado damage.

*9:07 PM CDT: Burnett County: 2 miles East-Northeast of Grantsburg, Wisconsin: Observed tornado, blew down some large branches, threw some small debris a couple hundred yards.

*9:08 PM CDT: Burnett County: 6 miles West-Northwest of Webb Lake, Wisconsin: Tornado reported on the ground near Staples Lake Road.

*9:08 PM CDT: Washburn County: 6 miles Northeast of Webb Lake, Wisconsin: Tornado near Staples Lake Road.

Here are some rainfall totals that occurred around Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Thursday, June 17th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls MN: 0.10"

Grand Marais MN: 0.89"

Hibbing MN: 0.22"

Grand Portage MN: 0.96"

Cook MN: 0.86"

8 miles South of Bigfork MN: 1.00"

Dixon Lake MN: 0.60"

Weather tidbits for Duluth, MN:

*6/17-6/18/10 marks the first time since 5/31-6/1/10 with back to back 70 degree high temperature days.

*Today was the first day since May 27th, 2010 with a maximum temperature of at least 80 degrees.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

Very strong southwest to west winds have been occurring across our local area Today thanks to a powerful area of low pressure (994 mb) which was centered in Southeast Manitoba Province late Today. A secondary cold front was in the process of developing late Today and this boundary extended from the Arrowhead of Minnesota/Western Lake Superior area down through far Eastern Minnesota to Southern Minnesota. The airmass over portions of Northwest Wisconsin was becoming more unstable late Today with 4 PM meso-analysis showing CAPES of 500-1000 j/kg along with Lifted Indices from -2/-6 degrees C. No convection has developed yet out ahead of this front in Northwest Wisconsin, but this could change during the next hour or two. The rest of our area was much drier and more stable Today, but the presence of a powerful mid/upper level jet across the Upper Midwest along with mostly sunny skies and steep low level lapse rates resulted in the development of strong W/SW winds in Northern and Eastern Minnesota Today where wind gusts of 30-50 mph have occurred. High temperatures Today ranged from the lower 70s in far Northern Minnesota to the middle 70s to lower 80s from the Iron Range cities down through the Twin Ports, Brainerd, Pine City areas...And over all of Northwest Wisconsin. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +10/+17 degrees C from northwest to southeast across our area.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Very intense mid-June storm continued to push E/NE across Manitoba, Western/Northern Ontario Province late Today per water vapor satellite imagery. 60-80 knot mid and upper level jet were found across the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains Today per RUC model analysis on the S-SE side of this wound up system.

Tonight:

*Wind Advisory* is in effect for Koochiching and Northern Itasca Counties in Northern Minnesota. This includes the cities of International Falls MN...Littlefork MN...Northome MN...Togo MN...Bigfork MN...Squaw Lake MN...And Wirt MN...

A few showers or thunderstorms will be possible before 10 PM across Northwest Wisconsin...Mainly south-east of a line from Grantsburg to Bayfield...The main limiting factor for a more widespread thunderstorm threat This Evening is the lack of moisture as late Afternoon dewpoints were mostly in the mid-upper 50s in the affected area while 850 mb td's range from +7/+10 degrees C with PWS from 0.80"-1.00". Any thunderstorm that can develop will pose a risk for damaging winds and possibly some large hail though due to the strong winds in the mid/upper levels and some good wind shear in place. The greatest threat for this activity will be confined mainly to Iron, Sawyer, and Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin, including the Cities of Hayward, Exeland, Phillips, Park Falls, Ogema, Mercer, and Upson.

All of Northwest Wisconsin will be rain-free by late This Evening through the Overnight hours as this secondary cold front exits off to the east. Behind this boundary, a large area of stratocumulus clouds associated with cold advection will advect south/east across Northern Minnesota This Evening/Overnight. Some showers wrapping around the intense low to our northwest/north will likely move through portions of Northcentral Minnesota Tonight.

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area Tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the west or southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts from 30-50 mph persisting This Evening, especially in Northern Minnesota.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

A cooler day compared to Today will be found throughout our area on Saturday as high temperatures will stay in the 60s and 70s. Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow with the possibility of some showers or patchy drizzle mainly Tomorrow Morning across parts of Northern Minnesota. Clear-partly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow Night with lows in the 40s and 50s. Winds Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night will be out of the west or north at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Sunday through the middle of next week will feature a surface boundary which at times will turn into a warm front while other times it becomes a stationary front. This boundary is expected to remain off to our south, but it could be close enough to us at times to cause scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning late this weekend, but more likely during the early-middle part of next week. The potential for severe weather and or heavy rainfall will occur near this boundary, and some of this may affect portions of our area especially by the early to middle part of next week the way it looks now.

High temperatures for Sunday and Monday will be mainly in the 70s in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin but it will be cooler at times near Lake Superior. Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Windy. Clear to partly cloudy This Evening, then increasing cloudiness Overnight. Low 55 to 60. Wind southwest to west at 15 to 25 mph with gusts from 30 to 45 mph, especially This Evening.

.Saturday... A few showers possible in the Morning. Breezy. Mostly cloudy, but some Afternoon clearing is possible. Cooler. High 66 to 71. Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Monday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 68 to 73 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. Low 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday... Showers or thunderstorms possible. Variable cloudiness. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 72 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 49 degrees

Tim