Tuesday, June 1, 2010

6/1/10: Tuesday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:51 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 1st, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1987... A record high temperature of 87 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Here are some rainfall totals that occurred in Northern Minnesota from Monday late Afternoon through the Overnight hours. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls MN (Koochiching County) 0.12"

Grand Marais MN (Cook County) 0.09"

Cass Lake MN (Cass County) 0.06"

Cook MN (St. Louis County) 0.18"

Northome MN (Koochiching County) 0.52"

8 miles South of Big Fork MN (Koochiching County) 0.24"

3 miles East of Orr MN (St. Louis County) 0.21"

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A cold front has been pushing south/east across Northern Minnesota Today and as of late Afternoon was draped from Western Lake Superior through far Northwest Wisconsin into Central Minnesota. The atmosphere along and ahead of this front in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota has become somewhat unstable This Afternoon with CAPES of 500-1000 j/kg, Lifted Indices from -1/-5 degrees C, with Low Level Lapse Rates ranging from 7.0-9.0 c/km. A few showers and thunderstorms have developed as of mid-Afternoon over portions of Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota. The main threats out of this activity has been brief heavy downpours and occasional lightning strikes. Moisture is somewhat limited this far north Today with dewpoints maxing out in the upper 40s to low/mid 50s in the affected areas with PWS generally around 0.90" late Today per meso-analysis, the lack of moisture and instability is likely keeping these storms from turning severe despite favorable winds aloft and some shear. Northern Minnesota has been behind the cold front most of the day with some FGEN induced shower activity occurring at times. Partly to mostly cloudy skies covered our local area Today with a wide range in high temperatures from the 70s and 80s in Northwest Wisconsin, west through the Twin Ports and the Brainerd Lakes area with cooler 60s in Northern Minnesota. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +6 to +16 degrees C from north to south across our area. Winds Today were out of the southwest, north, or west at 10-20 mph.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Westerly flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis with a (546 meter) upper level low in place across Westcentral Ontario Province. Meanwhile off to our west, a corridor of strong winds aloft continued over the Central-East Pacific while a strong upper level low remains nearly stationary in the Northeast Pacific, or just south of Alaska. The overall weather pattern through this weekend will be characterized by a fast zonal flow (west-east) with several disturbances breaking off that upper low in the Gulf of Alaska while tracking east through the Upper Midwest.

Tonight:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue This Evening in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota, these storms should remain below severe levels, but a few of the stronger storms could put down some hail up to one half inch in diameter along with wind gusts to 45 mph. Locally heavy downpours and dangerous lightning strikes will also occur. The potential for thunderstorms should end by late Tonight as the cold front sinks south out of our local area. A few showers could linger Overnight, however, in Northern Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. Spotty showers across Northern Minnesota late Today should diminish This Evening. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover our area Tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s, but some 30s are possible in Northern Minnesota. Winds will be out of the north or west under 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

High pressure will slide east into the Upper Midwest during this period. May see some showers Tomorrow Morning in Northwest Wisconsin, otherwise this period looks dry in our area. Partly-mostly sunny skies are forecast on Wednesday with highs in the 60s to lower 70s with partly cloudy skies Wednesday along with lows mainly in the 40s. Winds during this period will be out of the north, east, or west under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Thursday should remain dry across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin the way it looks now with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s. From Thursday Night through the weekend we will be affected by some more low pressure disturbances which will track generally from the Northern Rockies through the Upper Midwest. Those systems could bring occasional showers and possibly some thunderstorms to our local area from Thursday Night right through Sunday. The rain won't be contininous with some dry hours likely, and it should also be noted that not all the forecast models Today are agreement on how things will evolve this weekend, some models keep things dry around our local area both Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the 40s and 50s with highs on Friday in the 60s and 70s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Showers possible through mid-Evening. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 66 to 71. Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50. Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 68 to 73.

.Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 53.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 48 to 53. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 65 to 70.

Normal High Temperature Today 68 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 45 degrees

Tim