Wednesday, May 26, 2010

5/26/10: Wednesday's Weather Report

Issued at 4:17 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 26th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1992... A record low temperature of 28 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

...RECORD EVENT...

A record high temperature of 86 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota on Tuesday, May 25th, 2010. The previous record for the date was 85 degrees which was set in 1914!

Here are the storm reports from Northern Wisconsin and far Northeast Minnesota from Tuesday, May 25th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Catawba WI (Price County) 1:00 PM CDT: Thunderstorm wind damage, power lines and trees down.

Prentice WI (Price County) 1:15 PM CDT: 1.00" diameter hail. Very strong winds were also reported.

5 miles South of Phillips WI (Price County) 1:19 PM CDT: 0.75" diameter hail.

Park Falls WI (Price County) 2:05 PM CDT: 0.75" diameter hail.

Mercer WI (Iron County) 2:30 PM CDT: Thunderstorm wind damage. Some trees down. Estimated wind gusts of 50 mph.

1 mile Northeast of Hayward WI (Sawyer County) Thunderstorm wind gust. 44 mph thunderstorm outflow winds.

High Bridge WI (Ashland County) 2:50 PM CDT: 0.88" diameter hail. Gusty winds blew a few small branches off trees.

Butternut WI (Ashland County) 3:15 PM CDT: 0.88" diameter hail. Some broken tree limbs down at Butternut and Park Falls due to wind gusts.

Silver Bay MN (Lake County) 4:13 PM CDT: Marine thunderstorm wind gust of 41 mph.

Grand Marais MN (Cook County) 4:40 PM CDT: Marine thunderstorm wind gust of 41 mph.

20 miles North-Northwest of Grand Marais MN (Cook County) 5:15 PM CDT: Poplar Lake Gunflint Trail, a few large trees down. Power lines down at Trail Center.

Here are some high temperatures that occurred across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday, May 25th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 86 degrees

International Falls MN: 86 degrees

Brainerd MN: 85 degrees

Hibbing MN: 87 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 88 degrees

Ely MN: 88 degrees

Orr MN: 90 degrees

Hinckley MN: 86 degrees

Ashland WI: 87 degrees

Hayward WI: 90 degrees

Siren WI: 90 degrees

Phillips WI: 90 degrees

Cook MN: 87 degrees

Madeline Island WI: 86 degrees

June 2010 outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center on May 20th, 2010:

For Duluth:

Equal Chances for Above Normal, Below Normal, or Normal Temperatures and Precipitation.

June 2010 through August 2010 outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center on May 20th, 2010:

For Duluth:

33% Chance for Below Normal Temperatures with Equal Chances for Above Normal, Below Normal, or Normal Precipitation.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

High pressure of 1022 mb was centered in Western Minnesota late Today with another 1022 mb high up in Central Saskatchewan Province Canada. The cold front which passed through our local area on Tuesday was now centered well to our south-east Today. Partly cloudy-sunny skies were found across our area Today with very pleasant late May temperatures in the 70s to around 80 degrees while dewpoints have dropped into the 30s and 40s Today. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +8/+10 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to +11/+13 degrees C from Northwest Wisconsin back through Eastcentral Minnesota. Winds Today were out of the north or west at 10-20 mph.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Southwest flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis. Upper level ridge (582 meters) covered a large part of the U.S...from the Central-Southern Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley, Central-Southern Plains, and Mid-Mississippi Valley region. Upper level low (576 meters) was centered east of the Carolinas Today per water vapor satellite imagery/RUC model analysis. Another potent upper level trough covered the Pacific Northwest/Eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean Today per water vapor satellite imagery with a south-southwest flow aloft occurring out ahead of this system across the Western U.S. Today.

Tonight through Thursday Night:

High pressure will be the main influence on our weather as it slides east across the Upper Midwest during this period. Clear-partly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Tonight through Tomorrow Night with lows in the 40s and 50s both nights while highs Tomorrow reach the 70s and lower 80s with cooler temperatures at times closer to Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the north, east, or south under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure will head off to our east for Friday and Saturday with a southerly flow developing across the Upper Midwest on the backside of this high. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s both Friday and Saturday with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Eventually we will see an area of low pressure make it's way out of the Northern Rockies and into Central Canada/Upper Midwest this weekend, the forecast models Today seem to be coming into better agreement with the timing of this system. It appears right now that will see a cold front pass through our area on Sunday, this system looks to have favorable upper level support going for it, but moisture may be somewhat limited, also the overall timing of the cold front doesn't appear to be too favorable for thunderstorm development in Northern Minnesota, but a slightly better risk for thunderstorms would exist in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as the cold front moves through these areas Sunday Afternoon or Sunday Evening. If more moisture can get drawn north into this system and if it can slow down just a little more, then we could have a risk for a few severe thunderstorms over parts of our area late this weekend.

This system is forecast to pull off to our north/east by Sunday Night and Monday with cooler temperatures occurring in it's wake, could also see a few lingering showers mainly around International Falls, Crane Lake, Ely, and Grand Marais for Sunday Night and Monday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 48 to 53. Wind northwest to north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Mostly sunny. High 75 to 80 but it may turn cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night... Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Friday... Mostly sunny. High 75 to 80 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 50 to 55.

.Saturday... Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday... Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 67 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 43 degrees

Tim