Monday, May 17, 2010

5/17/10: Monday's Weather Report

Issued at 3:36 PM CDT, Monday, May 17th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1988... A record low temperature of 26 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Weather tidbits: Source, NWS Duluth, MN.

*Today marks the 3rd consecutive day with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

*May 15th, 2010 was our 1st time since April 23rd, 2010 with a high temperature of at least 60 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota, and the 1st time with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees since April 15th, 2010.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today's Weather:

A weak upper level disturbance spinning around across the Upper Midwest combined with some interaction from a lake breeze front in Northeast Minnesota has helped to trigger a few light rain showers Today across parts of Northcentral and Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin, none of the showers were heavy and the majority of the showers haven't lasted more than a few couple of minutes at most. These spotty showers were affecting areas away from Lake Superior Today, very similar to Sunday Afternoon. Partly-mostly sunny skies were found across our local area Today with high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s, but 50s and 60s were common closer to Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM were in the +10/+11 degree C range across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were generally out of the north or east under 15 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured an area of high pressure 1022 mb centered in far Northeast Minnesota. A trough covered areas of Southeast Minnesota while a cold front was located across Central portions of Ontario Province.

Today's 500 mb analysis:

Most of the U.S. is being dominated by weak winds aloft which is a rather significant change from how the pattern has been as of late. An upper level low (570 meters) was heading east across Illinois and Indiana Today per water vapor satellite imagery. An upper level trough was found off the U.S. West Coast Today with a nice plume of mid/high level moisture spreading east across the Central Pacific and into the Western U.S. Today per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

An area of high pressure will remain in control of our weather as it sits near our area. Isolated rain showers away from Lake Superior will end This Evening, then the rest of Tonight through Tomorrow Night looks dry across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but an isolated shower can't be ruled out away from Lake Superior once again for Tuesday Afternoon. Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 40s, but a few 30s are possible in the typical chilly spots. Highs Tomorrow will be mostly in the 70s with 50s and 60s near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 40s. Expect partly cloudy skies through this period with variable winds under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Wednesday and Thursday look just as nice as the previous three days. High temperatures in the 70s can be expected in our local area both days, but it could be cooler at times closer to Lake Superior. Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be mostly in the 40s. On Friday and Saturday there will be an upper level disturbance tracking E/NE through the Plains, it doesn't appear that will see any rain this far north from that system, but it could be a close call especially if it trends slightly more to the north than what the forecast models are showing Today.

By this weekend into the early part of next week, the long range forecast models are in fairly good agreement on the development of an upper level trough to our west while a very warm airmass consisting of 850 mb temperatures of +12/+20 degrees C spreads north into the Upper Midwest along with increasing amounts of humidity (dewpoints in the 50s and 60s) High temperatures should have no problem reaching the 70s and 80s across Minnesota this weekend and early next week, with even an outside shot at 90 degrees! Wind direction will play a crucial role on whether or not any of this very warm air makes it to areas closer to Lake Superior, right now the chance doesn't look too good, but this could change.

A cold front and area of low pressure associated with the 500 mb trough to our west will make slow progress through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest during the Sunday-Tuesday time frame, this system along with ample amounts of instability which are being forecasted by the GFS model Today could trigger the first outbreak of severe thunderstorms this Spring for some portions of the aforementioned areas sometime in the Sunday-Tuesday time period.

All in all it looks like a very mild pattern through the rest of May, and possibly a more thundery one with time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 43 to 48. Wind east under 12 mph.

.Tuesday... Mostly sunny. High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Fair. Low 43 to 48. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Wednesday... Mostly sunny. High 70 to 75.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly clear. Low 43 to 48.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 67 to 72 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal High Temperature Today 64 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 41 degrees

Tim