Thursday, June 21, 2018

Highs in the 70s and 80s Fri-Sat, turning much cooler Sunday with strong NE winds near Lake Superior. Few showers/t-storms possible Saturday

/Issued 5:45 PM CDT, Thursday, June 21, 2018/

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/
















Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

12z European Computer Model from June 21, 2018

This is still a ways out so certainly not a sure thing, yet, but the long range computer models appear to be coming into better agreement on the expected weather pattern for late June into early July, the pattern would be quite similar to the one that setup last weekend which produced multiple clusters of thunderstorms, very heavy rain and flash flooding in parts of the Northland.  Stay tuned!































Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 satellite loop for Thursday, June 21, 2018 -- Quite a storm churning south/east through parts of the Midwest today.












Source:  https://lab.weathermodels.com

RTMA model temperature analysis
















Weather Synopsis

An interesting weather pattern in place on this first official day of summer.  An upper level low was over northern Missouri late this afternoon with clouds and showers underneath this low keeping high temps only in the 60s today, while farther north its quite warm with temperatures this afternoon in the mid 80s to low 90s from North Dakota and northern Minnesota, north into portions of Manitoba and Ontario Provinces.  5 PM temperatures in the Northland ranged from 84 degrees at International Falls to the upper 50s and 60s near Lake Superior and generally in the 70s in east central Minnesota.  850mb temperatures at 5 PM today ranged from +20C in central Manitoba Province to +12C in northern Missouri, so yes head north if you want warm summer temperatures.

Partly to mostly cloudy and dry tonight with patchy fog possible especially near Lake Superior.  Wide range in lows are expected with mid 40s to low 50s near Lake Superior with 60s in northern Minnesota.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies should continue for Friday and Saturday -- Will see a cold front move slowly south out of central Ontario Province, this front should pass through the Northland Saturday afternoon/evening.  Enough moisture and some modest instability will be in place ahead of this front which will help to produce a few showers and thunderstorms on Friday mostly in extreme northern Minnesota, then for Saturday a risk for a few showers and thunderstorms over most of the Northland with perhaps somewhat greater coverage of showers Saturday compared to Friday.  Severe weather isn't expected Saturday, but some heavy downpours are possible if you get underneath one of these storms.

High temps Friday in the 70s and 80s, slightly cooler near Lake Superior.  Highs Saturday in the 70s to lower 80s, again slightly cooler near Lake Superior.

A stronger lake breeze develops late Saturday night and persists through Sunday, similar to what happened Wednesday evening.  Potential for wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph Saturday night and Sunday with highs on Sunday only in the 50s near Lake Superior, 60s to around 70 degrees farther inland.

Rain chances look to return to the Northland sometime in the Monday evening through Wednesday time frame (June 25-27) as a slow moving area of low pressure approaches from the southwest.  Some heavy rain is possible along with a few thunderstorms with this system early to mid next week.

Note:  The pattern from about late June into early July could flip back to a similar one that occurred last weekend -- Trough out west, ridge to our south/southeast with a moist and potentially active SW flow aloft setting up across the northern Plains, upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.  Still lots of time for the models to change, but certainly will want to monitor later forecasts as we get closer to late next week and beyond for potential impacts from heat, humidity, thunderstorms, severe weather and heavy rainfall.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 47 to 52.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 75 to 80, little cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers and isolated thunderstorms possible during the afternoon.  High 75 to 80, little cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Normal Temperatures for June 22

High:  73
Low:   51

Sunrise Friday:  5:15 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim







Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Gusty NE wind developing this evening (20 to 25 mph). Cooler temps near Lake Superior Thursday (50s to ~60 F) still warm inland. 70s and 80s Fri-Sat

/Issued 5:33 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 20, 2018/
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

June 20, 2018












Dramatic warming taking place today at the head of Lake Superior with water temperatures this Wednesday afternoon ranging from the lower 70s at McQuade Harbor to the lower 60s at the Western Lake Superior buoy.  With strong NE winds developing this evening, we should see these warm water temperatures trend colder as the NE wind pushes cooler water temps down from central/northern Lake Superior where water temps this afternoon are only in the upper 30s!












Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z NAM - Temperature forecast valid 9 AM Thursday to 6 PM Thursday

An upper low to our south will keep temperatures on the cool side Thursday while less clouds and warmer temperatures are found farther north here in the Northland, if you're away from Lake Superior that is.
















Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Link to Flood Warning statements -- https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=flood%20warning
















Flood Information Links

•Current Closures in northwest Wisconsin (PDF)  http://transportal.cee.wisc.edu/resources/folders/downloads/511/CurrentAlertsFolder/Current_Closures.pdf

https://511wi.gov/map#:Alerts

Weather Synopsis

A picture perfect last day of spring across the Northland with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s! Skies were partly to mostly sunny with not much wind to speak of, although a stronger lake breeze is beginning to develop at 5 PM today along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Mainly dry through Thursday night under clear to partly cloudy skies.  Lows tonight ranging from the middle 40s to around 60 degrees, coolest temperatures likely to be found near Lake Superior.  Highs Thursday in the 70s and 80s, warmest temps in far northern Minnesota.  A stronger lake breeze expected for Thursday so highs near Lake Superior will likely be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Highs Friday in the upper 70s to middle 80s, not as strong of a lake breeze expected for Friday so temperatures should warmup again by the lake, probably into the middle 70s.

Spotty showers could develop Friday afternoon/evening mainly in far northern Minnesota, then a chance for a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over most of the Northland Saturday, shifting to western areas on Sunday -- These showers would be caused by a cold front which moves south out of Ontario Province over the weekend, not expecting any severe weather, and coverage of rain showers doesn't look widespread Saturday or Sunday so there should be many dry hours this weekend.  70s and 80s for highs Saturday, cooler Sunday especially near Lake Superior as a strong NE wind develops once again.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Turning breezy.  Low 49 to 54.  Wind east to northeast increasing to 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday...  Breezy and cooler.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 67 to 72, but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal Temperatures for June 21

High:  72
Low:   51

Sunrise Thursday:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim

Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Warm Wednesday ahead but turning much cooler near Lake Superior later in the afternoon with 15-30 mph NE winds! Flood Update in this post

/Issued 5:27 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 19, 2018/

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European Model
















Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z NAM model -- Temperature Forecast valid 1 PM Wednesday to 9 PM Wednesday, watch how the lake breeze moves inland off Lake Superior later in the afternoon with temperatures falling 20+ degrees in a short period of time late Wednesday afternoon or early Wednesday evening.
















Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Flood Warning information link - https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=flood%20warning

Road Closure link for Wisconsin - https://511wi.gov/map#:Alerts

Road Closure links for Minnesota - https://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/roadreports/event.jsf?sitKey=CARS4-11020&view=state&text=m&textOnly=false&current=true; https://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/roadreports/event.jsf?sitKey=CARS4-11041&view=state&text=m&textOnly=false&current=true
















Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z GEFS model from June 19, 2018














Note:  So far this month there have been zero 80 degree days at Duluth, Minnesota (thru June 19)

6 years on record dating back to 1874 where a June failed to produce at least one 80 degree day in Duluth -- See list below.

June 1998
June 1981
June 1916
June 1915
June 1904
June 1877

I don't think June 2018 will join that list, but it is interesting that we've gone so late into the month without at least one 80 degree day especially considering that last month had 8 days at or above 80 which tied the record for most 80s for the month of May. 

By the way the last time the Duluth Airport had a high temperature of at least 80 degrees was on May 28, over 3 weeks ago! And for those wondering, Duluth averages 5 days at or above 80 during the month of June.

Weather Synopsis

Partly to mostly cloudy skies in our area today with highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees.  There have been a few light rain showers or sprinkles at times over southwest portions of the area, generally around the Brainerd Lakes.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies continue tonight.  Few sprinkles or light showers continuing in far southern areas.  Lows ranging from around 50 to 60 degrees.

Wednesday looks rather nice with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s! Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected.  A cold front will push SW down Lake Superior later in the day with gusty NE winds and falling temperatures developing near the lake once that front moves through.

There will be a chance for isolated to scattered coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms in the Northland for Friday and Saturday -- Friday's chances look greatest in far northern Minnesota, then for Saturday the potential for some showers exists pretty much over the entire Northland.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 51 to 56.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph becoming north late.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 78 to 83.  Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.  Wind becoming northeast at 15 to 30 mph after 5 PM with falling temperatures.

.Thursday...  Partly cloudy.  High 69 to 74 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal Temperatures for June 20

High:  72
Low:   51

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim












Monday, June 18, 2018

Historic River Flooding continues in parts of the Northland -- Flood Warnings remain in effect; Record crest on the Nemadji River (31.0 feet early Monday morning) Cloud/Sun mix for Tue, highs in the 70s (Cooler by the lake)

/Issued 4:55 PM CDT, Monday, June 18, 2018/

Source:  https://www.weather.gov




















Source:  https://lab.weathermodels.com
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM-Nest Simulated Radar forecast from 7 PM Monday evening to 1 AM Thursday morning.  Looks like most of the rain through Wednesday night will remain south of the Northland, but a few showers could sneak into southern areas on Tuesday, but any rain that falls in our area shouldn't be very heavy.
















Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European Ensemble model from June 18, 2018
















Source:  https://water.weather.gov

Nemadji River below Superior -- Stage reached 31.0 feet early Monday morning (New record for the Nemadji River) Water levels are beginning to recede today with the stage at 7 AM Monday at 29.9 feet, and at 3 PM today the stage was at 26.4 feet and falling.  Note:  The previous record high stage was 27.3 feet on August 3, 2011 and on June 21, 2012.

















































Local Storm Reports for June 17-18, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

5:23 AM CDT 6/18:  Flood -- 1 E Superior, WI (Douglas County)  US Highway 2 is closed between 31st ave east and 37th ave east due to flooding.

12:20 AM CDT 6/18:  Flood -- Riverside, WI (Douglas County)  Wisconsin Highway 35 is closed at Riverside due to flooding.

11:47 PM CDT 6/17:  Flash Flood -- 5 NNW Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  Old Drummond Road is washed out at the Stewart River between Big Rock Road and Holm Road.

11:42 PM CDT 6/17:  Flood -- 4 NE Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  County Highway 3 is washed out between Loop Road and Fors Road.

7:00 PM CDT 6/17:  Flash Flood -- 2 ESE Gile, WI (Iron County)  Water flowing over Knight Road on the Gile Flowage.

4:30 AM CDT 6/17:  Flash Flood -- Mason, WI (Bayfield County)  White River Park in Mason, WI flooded due to overflow from the White River Flowage 314.

4:30 AM CDT 6/17:  Flash Flood -- 2 SSW Barksdale, WI (Bayfield County)  WI-13 flooded before the Intersection of WI-13 and Cherryville Road north of US-2.  Water overflowed from Whittlesey Creek and Fish Creek.

Flood Information and Road Closure links
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

*https://www.bayfieldcounty.org/998/8076/2018-Flood

*https://www.douglascountywi.org/

*https://co.ashland.wi.us/

*http://www.co.iron.wi.gov/

*https://www.weather.gov/images/dlh/StormSummaries/2018/June%2016-18%202018%20flooding/2018_06_18_0731_Bad_River_Reservation_closed_roads.png

June 2018 Flood Summary - https://www.weather.gov/dlh/June15-17_2018flooding

Link to the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota Situation Report - https://www.weather.gov/media/dlh/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf

Marquette, Michigan National Weather Service Flood Event Summary for Upper Michigan https://www.weather.gov/mqt/fathersday2018weekendflooding

3-Day Rainfall Totals around the Northland
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

June 15-17, 2018

2 W Drummond, WI:  15.04 inches
11 SSE Brule, WI:  10.73 inches
11 W Drummond, WI:  9.36 inches
Gile, WI:  8.32 inches
Bruno, MN:  8.08 inches
Washburn, WI:  7.45 inches
6 ENE Patzau, WI:  6.51 inches
Ashland, WI:  6.36 inches
1 SSW Pleasant Valley, MN:  6.32 inches
7 NW Two Harbors, MN:  6.06 inches
7 WNW Minong, WI:  5.94 inches
Hurley, WI:  5.85 inches
Hayward Airport:  5.44 inches
Breezy Point, MN:  5.00 inches
4 SSE South Range, WI:  4.90 inches
1 NNW Cloquet, MN:  4.52 inches
Glidden, WI:  4.31 inches
6 W Castle Danger, MN:  4.17 inches
2 SW Moose Lake, MN:  3.94 inches
Littlefork, MN:  3.85 inches
2 NW Superior, WI:  3.27 inches
2 S Wrenshall, MN:  3.22 inches
1 ESE Esko, MN:  3.12 inches

Weather Tidbits

Duluth, Minnesota

•4th wettest June 17 on record with 1.30 inches of rain on Sunday.  Wettest June 17 on record occurred in 2006 with 1.53 inches of rain.

Ashland, Wisconsin

•Wettest June 17 on record with 3.37 inches of rain on Sunday.  Previous wettest June 17 was in 1931 with 1.32 inches of rain.

•5th warmest low temperature on record for June 17 at Ashland, Wisconsin with a low on Sunday of 63 degrees.  Warmest low on record for June 17 is 65 degrees set in 2006. 

•4th wettest June 16 on record at Ashland, Wisconsin with 1.17 inches of rain on Saturday.  Wettest June 16 on record is 1.94 inches set in 1901.

•Wettest June 15 at Ashland, Wisconsin with 3.34 inches of rain on Friday.  Previous wettest June 15 on record was in 1938 with 1.55 inches of rain.

Brainerd, Minnesota

•3rd wettest June 17 on record with 1.23 inches of rain on Sunday.  Wettest June 17 on record is 1.93 inches set in 1957.

•3rd warmest low temperature on record for June 16 at Brainerd, Minnesota with a low on Saturday of 64 degrees.  Warmest low on record for June 16 is 69 degrees set in 2006.

•4th warmest low temperature on record for June 15 at Brainerd, Minnesota with a low on Friday of 65 degrees.  Warmest low on record for June 15 is 68 degrees set in 2007.

International Falls, Minnesota

•Warmest low temperature on record for June 16.  Low on Saturday was 66 degrees.  Previous warmest low on record for June 16 was 64 degrees set in 1995.

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

June 10 through 16, 2018

High Temperatures/Departure from normal

6/10:  73 F/+4 degrees above normal
6/11:  66 F/-4 degrees below normal
6/12:  76 F/+6 degrees above normal
6/13:  79 F/+9 degrees above normal
6/14:  77 F/+7 degrees above normal
6/15:  74 F/+3 degrees above normal
6/16:  75 F/+4 degrees above normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from normal

6/10:  50 F/+2 degrees above normal
6/11:  50 F/+2 degrees above normal
6/12:  56 F/+8 degrees above normal
6/13:  52 F/+3 degrees above normal
6/14:  52 F/+3 degrees above normal
6/15:  56 F/+7 degrees above normal
6/16:  53 F/+3 degrees above normal

Note:  Average temperature for the week of June 10:  63.5 degrees (+4.1 degrees above normal)  Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total Precipitation:  1.06 inches
Normal:  0.98 inches
Departure:  +0.08 inches above normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of June 10, 2018
Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  68.0 degrees
Departure:  +3.3 degrees above normal

Precipitation:  1.25 inches
Departure:  +0.17 inches above normal

Weather Synopsis

A very nice day across the Northland under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.  Highs were in the mid 70s to 80 degrees with easterly breezes which didn't produce much if any cooling near Lake Superior today as highs even by the lake made it into the 70s today.

Most of the Northland should be dry through Thursday, however, a few showers could affect mainly southern parts of the area on Tuesday, but it looks like the heaviest rain would fall south of our area. 

This week will find a frontal boundary more or less stalled out over the central Plains with rounds of heavy rain occurring near that front, but luckily the Northland will be far enough north of this boundary so additional heavy rainfall is not expected most of this week.

A backdoor cold front is forecast to pass through our area Wednesday afternoon with increasing and cooler NE winds moving down Lake Superior once the front passes. 

Lows tonight will be range from the mid 40s to around 60 degrees.  Highs Tuesday ranging from the lower 60s to upper 70s with the warmest temperatures expected to be in northern Minnesota.  Should be a bit cooler near Lake Superior on Tuesday. 

Wednesday will find highs reaching the mid 70s to low 80s even by Lake Superior, but a wind shift to the NE will cause temperatures to drop into the 50s near Lake Superior by mid or late Wednesday afternoon the way it looks now.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 51 to 56.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80 but turning much cooler near Lake Superior during the afternoon.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph developing during the afternoon.

Normal Temperatures for June 19

High:  72
Low:   50

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   9:06 PM CDT

Tim






Sunday, June 17, 2018

Northland Storm Reports for June 17, 2018. Historic River Flooding occurring along the Nemadji and St. Croix rivers. Monday's weather, no rain with highs in the 70s to ~80 F (East wind)

/Issued 8:40 PM CDT, Sunday, June 17, 2018

Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
















PDF Situation Report from the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

https://www.weather.gov/media/dlh/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf

Local Storm Reports for June 17, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

7:31 PM CDT:  Heavy Rain -- 4.17 inches.  6 W Castle Danger, MN (Lake County)  Rainfall since last evening.  Some flooded roads in this area.

7:08 PM CDT:  Heavy Rain -- 3.10 inches.  3 SSW Bruno, MN (Pine County)

6:55 PM CDT:  Heavy Rain -- 1.80 inches.  1 N Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)  Rainfall total just since this morning.

5:30 PM CDT:  Heavy Rain -- 5.50 inches.  2 NW Kerrick, MN (Pine County)  Total rainfall accumulation since Friday.

5:15 PM CDT:  Flood -- 3 SSE Moquah, WI (Bayfield County)  Bridge damaged near US Highway 63 and US Highway 2.  US-63 and 2 closed to Drummond, WI.  Cars have driven onto flooded roadways and been stranded.

5:03 PM CDT:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 2 W Mercer, WI (Iron County)  Power poles broken.

4:45 PM CDT:  Heavy Rain -- 4.69 inches.  5 NW Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  Total rainfall accumulation since last night.

4:30 PM CDT:  Flash Flood -- 12 WNW Cable, WI (Bayfield County)  Denver Road closed due to water over the road from the Ounce River.  7.90 inches of rain from 9:30 PM last night to 4:30 PM today.  Trees down along highway.

4:21 PM CDT:  Flood -- 1 SSE Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)

3:29 PM CDT:  Hail -- 0.50 inch.  2 ESE Bennett, WI (Douglas County)

3:20 PM CDT:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 1 NE Solon Springs, WI (Douglas County)  Tree downed in Solon Springs on South Beach Ave.

2:10 PM CDT:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 1 E Lawler, MN (Aitkin County)  100 foot roof on barn ripped off.  Several large trees down.

2:10 PM CDT:  Hail -- 1.25 inch.  2 ENE Waldeck, MN (Aitkin County)  Half Dollar sized hail.

4:30 AM CDT:  Flash Flood -- 1 SE Ino, WI (Bayfield County)  Keystone Road washed out by North Fish Creek.

4:30 AM CDT:  Flash Flood -- 3 SSW Barksdale, WI (Bayfield County)  Roadway flooded near the Intersection of US-2 and County Highway G near North Fish Creek.

2:20 AM CDT:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 1 SE Little Round Lake, WI (Sawyer County)  Lac Coutre Oreilles Emergency Management reported numerous trees down, around 8 to 12 inches in diameter.  Three of the trees fell onto structures and cars.  Bulk of the trees fell south of Junction of Froemel Road and Trepania Road.

1:40 AM CDT:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 4 ENE Webster, WI (Burnett County)  Report of trampoline, garbage canisters, and a boat were blown over.  Also, some metal was blown off a structure.

Note:  Social Media links for road closure information -- Numerous roads in northwest Wisconsin are closed with some chunks of roads completely gone.

@DouglasCountyWI  (Twitter)

@WisDOTnorthcent (Twitter)

https://511wi.gov

Note:  Historic flooding has also hit portions of upper Michigan, especially in the Keweenaw Peninsula, some links to follow the flooding in upper Michigan: 

@Isaac_One_Seven (Twitter)

https://www.weather.gov/mqt/

Weather Synopsis

The last few days have been insane in parts of the Northland with incredible amounts of rain causing major flooding especially in parts of northwest Wisconsin.  I guess this is becoming the new normal around here, a major flood event or two every summer.

The weather pattern locked up with a ridge to our SE and trough to our W -- Extremely humid air thanks to a SW flow aloft was in place over the upper Midwest for the last few days, this combined with a nearly stationary frontal boundary led to clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms, with these storms training in some locations for several hours with incredible rainfall rates due to the record or near record levels of moisture in the atmosphere.

The good news is that the potential for additional heavy rain is ending.  Some showers will linger most of the night in northwest Wisconsin, then we should have mainly dry weather along with some sunshine the next few days in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  The bad news is that the damage has already been done, and its going to take days if not weeks or even months to recover in the hardest hit areas.

Some sun is expected for Monday and Tuesday, but some patchy fog or low clouds could be found at times near Lake Superior through Tuesday as winds shift to the northeast.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s in far northern Minnesota to the mid 50s to low 60s elsewhere.  Highs Monday in the 70s to lower 80s.  Dew points which have been on the high side since Friday will also be lowering to more comfortable levels starting on Monday. 

Tim












3 to nearly 12 inches of rain fell in parts of northwest Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota early Sunday morning - Flooding is ongoing in those areas. Additional showers/t-storms through this evening with heavy rain, Flash Flood Watch remains in effect

/Issued 10:42 AM CDT, Sunday, June 17, 2018

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

850mb dew point map for Sunday morning, June 17, 2018
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

500mb map for Sunday morning, June 17, 2018
















Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 infrared satellite loop from late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, June 16-17, 2018.  Colder cloud tops show up in the darkest colors -- Nearly stationary thunderstorms producing extremely heavy rainfall setup just south of Duluth early Sunday morning with parts of east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin receiving anywhere from 3 to nearly 12 inches of rain!












Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov


























































Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

14z HRRR model run -- Simulated Radar forecast from Noon today to 3 AM Monday.

Unfortunately with a frontal boundary and deep tropical moisture remaining over the Northland, another round or two of showers and thunderstorms are likely into this evening.  East central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin appear to have the greatest potential for heavy rain through this evening, but some downpours can't be ruled out farther north across northern Minnesota and the North Shore areas.  Note:  This pattern will finally break down by Monday morning which will end the threat for additional heavy rain in our area.
















Local Storm Reports for June 16 through 17, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

9:40 AM CDT:  Heavy Rain -- 5.25 inches.  10 W Drummond, WI (Bayfield County)  Fell overnight.

8:55 AM CDT 6/17:  Heavy Rain -- 3.43 inches.  7 SSE Wales, MN (Lake County)  Rainfall total since 7 PM Saturday (16th)

8:35 AM CDT 6/17:  Heavy Rain -- 5.00 inches.  Breezy Point, MN (Crow Wing County)  Rainfall total since 8 AM Saturday (16th)

5:10 AM CDT 6/17:  Flood -- 5 SSW Gurney, WI (Ashland County)  Tyler Forks River flowing quickly over State Highway 169.

2:17 AM CDT 6/17:  Flash Flood -- 2 SW Sanborn, WI (Bayfield County)  Argo road 12 miles south of Ashland is washed out.

2:14 AM CDT 6/17:  Flash Flood -- Foxboro, WI (Douglas County)  Report of flooding in the Foxboro area and rainfall amounts in excess of 8 inches.

2:14 AM CDT 6/17:  Flash Flood -- 8 W Solon Springs, WI (Douglas County)  County Highway A between Solon Springs and Amnicon Lake is flooded.  Some trees down as well.

1:40 AM CDT 6/16:  Flash Flood -- 2 S Glen, MN (Aitkin County)  State Highway 47 is washed out south of Glen.

1:36 AM CDT 6/17:  Flash Flood -- 1 S Pleasant Valley, MN (Carlton County)  State Highway 23 is washed out at the Nemadji River mile marker 322.

1:23 AM CDT 6/17:  Flash Flood -- 1 N Moose Junction, MN (Douglas County)  Multiple roads reported washed out in the Summit and Dairyland areas.

10:26 PM CDT 6/16:  Heavy Rain -- 1.28 inches.  Kettle River, MN (Carlton County)  25 minute rainfall total.

10:18 PM CDT 6/16:  Hail -- 0.25 inch.  6 E Woodrow, MN (Crow Wing County)  One minute of pea sized hail per spotter report.

4:53 PM CDT 6/16:  Flash Flood -- 5 NE Cook, MN (St. Louis County)  Luthey Road and Beaty Road closed due to washouts and water over roadway.

*Additional rainfall reports*
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Note:  Totals listed below are from June 16-17, 2018, ending around 6 AM on the 17th.

2 W Drummond, WI:  11.28 in
2.2 S Barnes, WI:  9.26 in
11 SSE Brule, WI:  6.96 in
7.8 SSW Poplar, WI:  5.56 in
7.2 SE Iron River, WI:  5.42 in
14.8 S Superior, WI:  5.15 in
1 SSW Pleasant Valley, MN 4.39 in
Bruno, MN:  4.20 in
6 ENE Patzau, WI:  4.02 in
7 WNW Minong, WI:  3.38 in
6 ESE Cloverdale, WI:  2.68 in
4 SSE South Range, WI:  2.61 in
13 SSE Littlefork, MN:  2.57 in
2 SW Moose Lake, MN:  2.28 in
Washburn, WI:  2.25 in
Ashland, WI:  1.72 in
Hayward, WI:  1.66 in
Brainerd, MN:  1.30 in
2 ENE Oliver, WI:  1.11 in
International Falls, MN:  0.84 in
Duluth Airport:  0.83 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.73 in

Road closures map

Minnesota:  https://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf

Wisconsin:  https://511wi.gov/map

MN 23 in both directions: Road closed for repairs.
•Between County Highway 8 and County Highway 1 (4 to 6 miles west of the Wrenshall area). The road is closed for repairs. All lanes are blocked. Look out for bridge damage due to a flash flood.
Last updated today at 4:17am CDT

•Incident on WIS 35 Both Directions at COUNTY B. Full roadway closure in both directions. Last Updated Jun 17 2018, 4:09 AM.

•Incident on US 53 Southbound at US 2. Full roadway closure in one direction. Last Updated Jun 17 2018, 7:28 AM.

•Incident on US 63 Both Directions at BURGESON RD. Full roadway closure in both directions. Last Updated Jun 17 2018, 4:07 AM.

•Incident on US 2 Both Directions at US 63. Full roadway closure in both directions. Last Updated Jun 17 2018, 4:54 AM.

•Incident on WIS 77 Both Directions at CASEY SAG RD. Full roadway closure in both directions. Last Updated Jun 16 2018, 7:06 PM.

•Incident on WIS 77 Both Directions at WIS 122N. Full roadway closure in both directions. Last Updated Jun 16 2018, 11:16 AM.



Link to River Gauge Forecasts across the Northland:  https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=DLH

Tim






Saturday, June 16, 2018

Flash Flood Watch continues through Monday; Rounds of showers/t-storms through Sunday night, very heavy rainfall rates, possible flooding and a few strong to severe storms

/Issued 4:41 PM CDT, Saturday, June 16, 2018/

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov















Note:  Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for much of the Northland (Green area on map) through Monday afternoon, except in western areas from Grand Rapids to Brainerd where the Flash Flood Watch runs through Sunday morning.





























































































Weather Synopsis

The heaviest rain today was over portions of northern Minnesota, farther north from the areas that were hit hard on Friday.  Cook, Minnesota reported 4.50 inches of rain in just 1 hour and 30 minutes today which resulted in flooding in that area, incredible rainfall rates!

The atmosphere remains loaded with deep tropical moisture with PWATS through Sunday evening ranging from 1.60 to 2.25 inches (Record or near record territory for mid June) Dew points will remain in the 65 to 75 degree range, and instability will remain favorably strong to support convection at times through Sunday night.

A nearly stationary frontal boundary will remain over the upper Midwest tonight and Sunday before it finally shifts farther south/east and further away from the Northland by Monday morning which will end the threat for heavy rainfall.

A few of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe tonight and again Sunday afternoon/evening with hail and damaging wind gusts the primary threats in our area.  The greatest potential for a few severe storms is over southern portions of the Northland tonight, from Brainerd and Grand Rapids to Duluth and Hinckley, east into all of northwest Wisconsin.  Sunday's risk shifts more into eastern Minnesota and includes all of northwest Wisconsin once again.

As we've seen since Friday, will continue to have some breaks in the rainfall at times through Sunday night.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to lower 70s with cooler temps and possible fog at times near Lake Superior.  Highs Sunday will range from around 70 to the middle 80s, cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal Temperatures for June 17 at Duluth, Minnesota

High:  71
Low:  50

Sunrise Sunday:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   9:06 PM CDT

Tim