Friday, October 20, 2017

Scattered Showers/T-Storms late tonight-Saturday evening; Mild temps continue thru Mon. Much colder late next week?

/Issued 5:54 PM CDT, Friday, October 20, 2017/

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

12z European model from October 20, 2017 valid for Friday, October 27, 2017 -- 500mb forecast
















Source:  http://wx.graphics/

12z European Ensemble model from October 20, 2017 -- Valid for Saturday, October 28, 2017
















A few strong to severe thunderstorms could develop Saturday into Saturday night in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.













































Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM Nest model -- Simulated radar forecast starting at 7 AM Saturday, ending at 1 AM Sunday morning.  A few rounds of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms on the way for Saturday with dry weather in between the waves of showers.
















Source:  http://coolwx.com

















Weather Synopsis

This current streak of warm temperatures peaked today with widespread 70s across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin -- 850mb temperatures at 4 PM were around +18C while 925mb temperatures were at +20C.  Southwesterly flow aloft covered the upper Midwest today in between a strong upper trough over the northern Rockies and an upper ridge over the southern/eastern U.S.  Low level moisture has been increasing today due to the southerly flow, late afternoon dew points have climbed into the 40s to lower 50s over most of the Northland.

Tonight:  Partly to mostly cloudy skies with very mild low temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s.  Note:  Normal lows for October 21 are around 30 degrees!  A few showers or thunderstorms are possible late tonight as elevated instability increases while a warm/moist advection pattern persists through the night.

Saturday:  Mild and quite humid for the time of year with dew points in the 50s to lower 60s while high temperatures make it into the 60s except for slightly cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  A strong area of low pressure ~988mb over southern Saskatchewan Province late this afternoon will track E-NE into central Manitoba Province by Saturday evening -- A cold front attached to that low will move through the Northland Saturday night.  Forcing along this front and also with the approaching upper level trough will result in scattered rain showers in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for Saturday.  Elevated instability will also be sufficient (300-1000 j/kg) for a few thunderstorms with heavy downpours and occasional lightning.

Sunday:  Drier and cooler than recent days but still above average for late October.  Will have a mix of sun/clouds as Saturday's cold front moves into the eastern Great Lakes region.  Highs will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Note:  2nd warmest October 20 on record today at International Falls, Minnesota while Duluth tied for 2nd warmest -- See lists below.

International Falls, Minnesota

1:  80 degrees set in 1953
2:  79 degrees set in 2017

Duluth, Minnesota

1:  79 degrees set in 1953
2:  75 degrees set in 2017 and 1978

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible after midnight.  Low 53 to 58.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  High 60 to 65.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday night...  Scattered showers mainly during the evening with isolated thunderstorms also possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low around 50.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph becoming west at 15 to 25 mph late.

.Sunday...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  49
Low:   33

Sunrise Saturday:  7:35 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   6:10 PM CDT

Tim




Thursday, October 19, 2017

Very warm Friday (A top 5 warmest temp on record for Oct 20 possible at Duluth and I'Falls) Showers/T-storms Fri night-Sat

/Issued 5:46 PM CDT, Thursday, October 19, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

300mb analysis from 3 PM, October 19, 2017
















Source:  http://wx.graphics/

12z European model Pwat forecast for Friday evening
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM Nest model simulated radar loop starting at 10 PM Friday night - Ending at 1 AM Sunday morning -- A few showers or isolated thunderstorms could develop late Friday night across the Northland, which will then be followed by another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms sometime Saturday afternoon or evening.
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Water vapor satellite loop for October 19, 2017 -- The pattern we're in looks like something you'd see during the summer months; The main jet stream/Storm track is over Canada while an upper level ridge covers the Plains and upper Midwest.  The powerful storm which was over Manitoba Province on Wednesday has moved into Quebec Province today, while another deep low heads into British Columbia today.
















Weather Synopsis

Another stellar fall day under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.  Highs today ranged from the mid 60s to low 70s (15-20 degrees above average for October 19) Surface map late this afternoon had an area of high pressure covering the southern Great Lakes with low pressure over western Canada and an upper level ridge in place over the central Plains into the upper Midwest.  850mb temperatures at 4 PM today ranged from +22 C at Rapid City, South Dakota to +10 C at International Falls, Minnesota.  The warmer air over the western High Plains will push northeast into our area through Friday.

For tonight, clear to partly cloudy and quiet weather conditions once again with lows in the 40s and 50s although a few 30s can't be ruled out in the typical cold spots.

Very mild temperatures on the way for Friday under partly to mostly sunny skies.  850mb temperatures will climb to between +15 and +20 degrees C and this should lead to widespread 70s over most of the Northland on Friday, it will be cooler, however, along the North Shore of Lake Superior due to the southerly wind coming off the lake.  Moisture will also increase on Friday with dew points rising into the 40s and possibly even into the 50s, so the fire danger risk shouldn't be as high as it has been the past few days thanks to the increasing amounts of low level moisture on Friday.

Low level jet of 40-50 knots will continue to advect warm and humid air into the upper Midwest Friday night, and this setup could lead to a few showers over parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin especially later in the night.  Elevated instability is also forecast to increase Friday night which may even cause a thunderstorm or two!

Mild and humid conditions for Saturday with a cold front moving east out of the northern Plains, this front looks to pass through the Northland Saturday night.  Forcing along and just ahead of this cold front will cause areas of rain showers along with a few thunderstorms for Saturday and Saturday night.  Highs on Saturday will mainly be in the 60s while dew points range from ~50 to ~60 degrees.

Note:  A top 5 warmest high temperature is possible Friday, October 20 at Duluth and International Falls, Minnesota -- See top 5 lists below.

Duluth, Minnesota

1:  79 degrees set in 1953
2:  75 degrees set in 1978
3:  74 degrees set in 1914
4:  73 degrees set in 1947
5:  72 degrees set in 1942

International Falls, Minnesota

1:  80 degrees set in 1953
2:  75 degrees set in 1978
3:  74 degrees set in 1958
4:  73 degrees set in 1914
5:  70 degrees set in 1920

Note:  Temperatures cool off just a bit Sunday but will still be above average for this time of year with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 44 to 49.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 69 to 74.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday night...  A few showers or thunderstorms possible late, otherwise mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  50
Low:   34

Sunrise Friday:  7:34 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   6:12 PM CDT

Tim

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Warm temps continue Thu-Fri. Showers/T-storms possible Friday night-Saturday. Much colder later next week?

/Issued 6:37 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 18, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Water vapor satellite loop from October 18, 2017 -- Two strong storm systems today, one was over the north Pacific, the other one over northern Manitoba Province.
















Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/













Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov































Check out these relative humidity values from late Wednesday afternoon - The combination of warm temperatures, gusty winds and low humidity values led to dangerous fire weather conditions in most of northern Minnesota this afternoon with a Red Flag Warning in effect which will expire at 7 PM this evening.












Note:  Spotty power outages occurring late this afternoon in parts of northeast Minnesota, these outages may be weather related as winds have been on the gusty side this afternoon - Link to Lake Country Power outage map http://mi.lcp.coop:82/#viewer-menu-parent

6:38 PM power outage update:  10 total outages (Lake Country Power) 136 members affected.

Weather Synopsis

Gusty winds and warm temperatures continued today with partly sunny to mostly sunny skies.  Highs were in the 60s to lower 70s with west winds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph this afternoon.  The only weather issue today was the increased risk for fires due to the warm and dry conditions in our area.

Seasonal temperatures for tonight under clear to partly cloudy skies.  Lows will be in the 30s and 40s (Cooler than last night) thanks to a brief shot of cold air advection occurring on the south flank of the strong surface low well to our north. 

Warm air advection returns Thursday as winds switch back to the southwest once again -- Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.

Dry weather continues Friday with even warmer daytime highs forecast with afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s!  Low level moisture increases Friday night thanks to a strong 850mb jet which will help bring up this moisture -- This low level jet will also help to increase the elevated instability which could lead to a few showers and thunderstorms popping up in parts of the Northland for Friday night.

A strong area of low pressure will stay north of the border Friday-Saturday, attached to this low will be a cold front, and this front will move through the upper Midwest on Saturday -- Expect some showers and a few thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for Saturday and Saturday night.  Highs on Saturday will still be on the mild side of things with highs in the 60s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Mostly sunny.  High 65 to 70.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 67 to 72.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  50
Low:   34

Sunrise Thursday:  7:33 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   6:14 PM CDT

Tim


Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Gusty winds and mild temps continue Wednesday; Fire Weather Watch for northern MN. Spotty t-storms possible Fri night

/Issued 6:33 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 17, 2017/

Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov














Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM most unstable cape forecast valid for Friday night
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM valid for Wednesday afternoon
















Source:  http://www.weather.gov/crh/















Note:  A top 5 warmest high temperature on record for October 17 at International Falls, Minnesota today.  High temperature was 72 degrees which ties with October 17, 1924 and October 17, 1906 for 5th warmest high temperature on record.  The record high for October 17 is 82 degrees set in 1961.

Weather Synopsis

Picture perfect mid October weather continues around here.  Just a few clouds at times today but overall skies were mostly sunny today with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Deep low pressure of 984mb was over eastern Alberta Province early this evening -- This low will continue to strengthen as it moves east with pressures lowering to 970-975mb Wednesday as the low moves through central Manitoba Province -- With the low off to our northwest, this will keep the Northland in the warm sector with mild temperatures continuing Wednesday, this despite a cold front which will move through the area during the day. 

Lows tonight will be in the 40s to lower 50s but a few 30s can't be ruled out in the typical cold spots.  Highs Wednesday will range from the lower 60s in far northern Minnesota to the mid 60s to low 70s in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

A warm front will move through the Northland Thursday which will put us back in the warm sector once again on Friday before a cold front moves through on Saturday -- More moisture and better forcing is forecast with this next cold front on Saturday which should lead to some rain showers from late Friday night into Saturday.  Note:  There could also be a few thunderstorms during the Friday night-Saturday time frame with some elevated instability and steep mid level lapse rates over the upper Midwest.

Highs Thursday will range from the mid 50s to upper 60s with highs Friday in the mid 60s to mid 70s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 65 to 70.  Wind west to southwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday...  Mostly sunny.  High 62 to 67.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  51
Low:   34

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:31 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   6:16 PM CDT

Tim






Monday, October 16, 2017

A few clouds tonight. Sunshine, gusty SW wind for Tuesday, highs mid 60s to around 70! First half of Oct climate stats in this post

/Issued 5:14 PM CDT, Monday, October 16, 2017/

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov


























Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

October 1-15, 2017 Temperature Departure map




















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

October 1-15, 2017 Precipitation Departure map




















Weather Synopsis

Mostly sunny skies over the Northland today with mild high temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s (Around 10-15 degrees warmer than average for October 16)

There isn't going to be much weather to talk about this week in our area but this isn't necessarily a bad thing! A cold front will drop south into far northern Minnesota late tonight but will quickly lift north as a warm front on Tuesday, it won't be until Wednesday before a cold front zips through the entire Northland. 

Lows tonight will be in the 30s and 40s but 20s can't be ruled out in the typical cold spots.  Highs Tuesday will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with a breezy southwest wind once again.

Temperatures remain on the mild side Wednesday, this despite a cold frontal passage -- Highs will be in the 60s with all of the real cool air remaining north of the border thanks to a westerly flow aloft which will keep the chilly stuff bottled up to our north (for now)

Highs Thursday are forecast to be in the 50s in far northeast Minnesota with 60s in western-southern areas.  Even warmer for Friday with highs in the 60s and possibly some 70s!

Note:  I don't think will break any record high temps later this week but a record warm or top 5 warmest low temperature is possible Friday or Saturday.

A stronger cold front is forecast to move through the upper Midwest on Saturday with better forcing and deeper moisture associated with this front, this should lead to some rain showers affecting northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for Saturday and Saturday night.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming light and variable.

.Tuesday...  Breezy.  Mostly sunny.  High 63 to 68.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  Breezy.  High 62 to 67.  Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  51
Low:   35

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:30 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   6:17 PM CDT

Tim

Sunday, October 15, 2017

Sprinkles possible this evening. Breezy SW wind, dry (55-60 F Monday) Mild temps all week!

/Issued 6:14 PM CDT, Sunday, October 15, 2017/

Source:  http://wx.graphics/

12 European Ensemble model from October 15, 2017 -- 500mb Height Anomaly map valid for Friday, October 20, 2017.
















Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/
















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of October 8, 2017.




















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of October 8, 2017.





















Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

October 8-14, 2017

High Temperature/Departure from normal

10/8:  65 F/+10 degrees above normal
10/9:  49 F/-6 degrees below normal
10/10:  53 F/-1 degree below normal
10/11:  54 F/Normal
10/12:  55 F/+2 degrees above normal
10/13:  57 F/+4 degrees above normal
10/14:  53 F/Normal

Low Temperature/Departure from normal

10/8:  44 F/+7 degrees above normal
10/9:  30 F/-7 degrees below normal
10/10:  27 F/-10 degrees below normal
10/11:  26 F/-10 degrees below normal
10/12:  50 F/+14 degrees above normal
10/13:  35 F/-1 degree below normal
10/14:  29 F/-7 degrees below normal

Note:  Average temperature for the week of October 8, 2017 at Duluth, Minnesota:  44.8 degrees (-0.4 degrees below normal)  Source:  http://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total precipitation:  0.15 inches
Normal:  0.67 inches
Departure:  -0.52 inches below normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of October 8, 2017
Source:  http://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  49.0 degrees
Departure:  +0.6 degrees above normal

Precipitation:  0.41 inches
Departure:  -0.16 inches below normal

Rainfall reports for October 14-15, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/http://mesowest.utah.edu

Bruno, MN 4 S:  0.75 in
Hayward, WI:  0.71 in
Butternut, WI:  0.65 in
Clam Lake, WI 4 W:  0.62 in
Ashland, WI:  0.62 in
Superior, WI:  0.58 in
Phillips, WI:  0.52 in
Moose Lake, MN:  0.47 in
Island Lake, MN 4 E:  0.36 in
Siren, WI:  0.35 in
Brainerd, MN:  0.32 in
Grand Rapids, MN 12 N:  0.32 in
Solon Springs, WI:  0.32 in
Wright, MN 3 E:  0.30 in
Two Harbors, MN:  0.30 in
Duluth, MN:  0.29 in
Walker, MN:  0.24 in
Isabella, MN:  0.22 in
Hinckley, MN:  0.21 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.19 in
Cass Lake, MN:  0.19 in
Hibbing, MN:  0.15 in
Gunflint Lake, MN 10 W:  0.15 in
Ely, MN 25 E:  0.13 in
Cook, MN:  0.12 in
Babbitt, MN:  0.10 in
Orr, MN 3 E:  0.03 in
Northome, MN:  0.02 in

Weather Synopsis

An upper level disturbance is dropping southeast through the upper Midwest this afternoon which led to partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies across our area.  The system which brought the rain to most of the Northland Saturday night has moved quickly into eastern Canada today, slightly cooler airmass behind this storm with highs today ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s (Near average to a couple degrees below average for October 15) 

Partly to mostly cloudy skies for tonight with a chance for a few light rain showers mainly this evening as an upper level disturbance continues to drop south/east through the upper Midwest.  Lows tonight will be in the 20s and 30s.

A nice stretch of weather begins on Monday and should continue at least through Friday (20th) The flow aloft will be out of the west or southwest this week -- A cold front will move through the area midweek with another cold frontal passage slated for sometime next weekend.  No rain in our area through Friday, but there could be a few showers around for next weekend (21st-22nd)

Highs Monday ranging from the lower 50s in far northeast Minnesota to the mid 50s to low 60s elsewhere.  Highs Tuesday mainly in the 60s with highs on Wednesday in the mid 50s to lower 60s.  Even warmer temperatures are possible later this week when daytime highs could approach 70 degrees over parts of the Northland -- This looks most likely to occur either Friday or Saturday (20th-21st) the way it looks now.  Note:  Normal highs in mid October are ~50 degrees in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Note:  No signs of any significant push of colder temperatures until maybe around the 24th-25th of this month, so for those who like mild temperatures, enjoy the next week or so because we all know a change to cold temperatures, and eventually snowier weather isn't far away!

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few light rain showers possible this evening.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday...  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 62 to 67.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  52
Low:   35

Sunrise Monday:  7:28 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   6:19 PM CDT

Tim







Friday, October 13, 2017

Gusty east wind develops Saturday, increasing clouds with some light rain later in the day. Mild temps next week (Near record warmth possible later next week)

/Issued 6:14 PM CDT, Friday, October 13, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu
















Source:  http://www.weather.gov/crh/

Note:  Largest waves and strongest winds with this event will remain over central/eastern portions of Lake Superior, all of Lake Michigan and western portions of Lake Huron.
















Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecast surface map valid at 7 AM Sunday















Source:  http://wx.graphics

12z European model from October 13, 2017.
















Note:  4th warmest low temperature on record at International Falls, Minnesota for October 12.  Low temperature on Thursday was 49 degrees.  The record warm low temperature for October 12 is 57 degrees set in 1984.

Weather Synopsis

A nice fall day around here with clouds earlier in the day giving way to a lot of sunshine this afternoon.  High temps were in the 50s with a few southern locations in northwest Wisconsin and also near Lake Superior close to 60 degrees.

Clear to partly cloudy skies on the way for tonight as high pressure moves east through the upper Midwest.  Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s.

Increasing cloudiness for Saturday with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s.  Low pressure will be over the western High Plains Saturday morning, this system will track toward the ENE moving into eastern Iowa Saturday evening, then moving into northern lower Michigan by Sunday morning.  Light rain is possible over most of the Northland during the Saturday afternoon-early Sunday morning time frame as this area of low pressure swings through.  Note:  Temperatures aloft do become cold enough for frozen precipitation in far northern Minnesota early Sunday morning but surface temperatures have trended warmer compared to how it looked 24 hours ago, so the potential for the rain to change over to snow with some snow accumulation looks less likely this evening than it did on Thursday.  There still could be a rain/snow mix that develops in parts of far northern Minnesota late Saturday night but little to no snow accumulation is expected the way it looks now.

Low pressure will deepen quite a bit once it reaches the eastern Great Lakes/eastern Canada vicinity this weekend with the central pressure ~1003mb Saturday evening dropping to ~990mb by Sunday afternoon -- Most of this deepening takes place after this storm exits the Northland.

As this system moves into Quebec Province Sunday it will be followed by an upper level disturbance which drops southeast into the Northland for Sunday afternoon/night -- A few spotty showers, perhaps mixed with snow flurries are possible as that feature moves through.  Highs on Sunday are forecast to range from around 40 to 50 degrees.

Next week looks pretty nice as a near zonal flow sets up, possibly shifting toward a southwest flow later next week.  There will be a couple frontal passages next week but no rain or snow is expected as those fronts move through.  A better chance for some rain could come next weekend (21st-22nd)

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph this evening becoming light and variable.

.Saturday...  Increasing cloudiness.  Breezy.  High 49 to 54.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph during the afternoon.

.Saturday night...  Light rain.  Mostly cloudy.  Low around 40.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph shifting to north to northwest after midnight.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  53
Low:   36

Sunrise Saturday:  7:26 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   6:23 PM CDT

Tim