Friday, August 18, 2017

Spotty downpours this evening. Near 80, some sun and dry Saturday! Risk for a few storms Sunday. New statewide rainfall record in Minnesota on August 16; All time wettest August on record in a few cities in MN. 5th coldest high temp on record at Duluth, MN on Aug 17

/Issued 5:13 PM CDT, Friday, August 18, 2017/












Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Radar loop from August 18, 2017 through 5 PM CDT.  Note:  Yellow boxes=Severe Thunderstorm Warning
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Water vapor satellite loop of today's system which has been producing scattered showers and thunderstorms and isolated severe weather in parts of Minnesota this afternoon.
















Record setting rainfall amounts in parts of Minnesota August 16-17, 2017
Source:  http://blog-weathertalk.extension.umn.edu/

Redwood Falls, MN:  8.12 inches
Willmar, MN:  4.11 inches
Vesta, MN:  3.98 inches
Marshall, MN:  3.66 inches
Montevideo, MN:  3.57 inches
Melrose, MN:  3.18 inches
Pokegama Dam, MN:  2.88 inches
Lake City, MN:  2.73 inches
Pipestone, MN:  2.67 inches
Lakefield, MN:  2.66 inches
Pine River Dam, MN:  2.49 inches

*New statewide rainfall record for August 16 -- Redwood Falls, Minnesota with 8.12 inches of rain.

*Wettest month of August in history already at Redwood Falls and Montevideo, Minnesota...See stats below.

Redwood Falls, Minnesota:  11.15 inches of rain (so far this month)  Wettest August on record!
Montevideo, Minnesota:  9.98 inches of rain (so far this month)  Wettest August on record!

Note:  5th coldest high temperature on record at Duluth, Minnesota for August 17.  See list below

1:  57 degrees set in 1927 and 1912
2:  59 degrees set in 1886
3:  60 degrees set in 2014
4:  61 degrees set in 1968 and 1915
5:  62 degrees set in 2017

Weather Synopsis

Another day without a lot of sunshine -- A few pockets here and there with some sun today but overall skies were mostly cloudy once again today.  Highs were milder than the past few days with temperatures this afternoon in the 70s although cooler temperatures in the 60s were found over the Brainerd Lakes area thanks to some rain this afternoon.

A few showers and thunderstorms will continue to drift slowly east or southeast across northeast Minnesota and possibly into far northern Wisconsin later in the evening before this precipitation ends later tonight.  Brief heavy downpours and some lightning will continue to be the main threats out of the storms this evening.  Note:  The overall potential of severe weather is very low due to a lack of wind shear, but a few storms could pulse up in intensity for a short period of time with a threat of hail or gusty winds, similar to what occurred around the Brainerd area just before 4 PM today.

Later tonight areas of low clouds and fog will likely develop especially over western-southern portions of the Northland, otherwise partly cloudy skies will rule with lows in the 40s and 50s.

Partly to mostly sunny skies Saturday after the low clouds and fog burn off.  Highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

A cold front moves slowly SE into the upper Midwest Sunday.  Instability build ahead of this front with low level moisture also increasing with dew points Sunday afternoon ranging from 65 to 70 degrees in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, much drier air over northern Minnesota.  Highs Sunday in the middle 70s to lower 80s.  Note:  A few showers and thunderstorms could develop in parts of the Northland late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon thanks to a cold front which will move across the area.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  A few showers or thunderstorms possible this evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 54 to 59.  Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 76 to 81.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible.  Highs in the 70s.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  74
Low:   54

Sunrise Saturday:  6:12 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:12 PM CDT

Tim







Thursday, August 17, 2017

7 tornadoes confirmed in southern MN Wednesday evening; 1-4" rain totals across the Northland since Wednesday with 4-9" of rain in parts of southwest MN!

/Issued 6:25 PM CDT, Thursday, August 17, 2017/

Source:  https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov

18z HRRRX model


















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Visible satellite loop from August 17, 2017 (Ending at 3:15 PM CDT)  Powerful looking storm, is this October or August?
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/

This is probably my favorite loop of today's storm that hit the Northland -- GOES 16  water vapor loop-- Updated every 5 minutes (Runs from ~9 AM to ~5 PM, August 17, 2017)













Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Water vapor satellite of today's storm.  Impressive!

Note:  A top 5 wettest August 16 on record at both Duluth and International Falls, Minnesota -- See stats below.

Duluth, Minnesota

1:  2.51" set in 1972
2:  1.24" set in 1949
3:  1.07" set in 1991
4:  1.02" set in 1874
5:  0.88" set in 2017

International Falls, Minnesota

1:  1.82" set in 1988
2:  1.50" set in 1925
3:  1.06" set in 2017
4:  0.66" set in 2009
5:  0.63" set in 1942

7 tornadoes confirmed in southern Minnesota Wednesday evening, August 16, 2017


Source: http://www.weather.gov/mpx/PublicInfoStatement

***Nicollet tornado number 1***

Rating:  EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind:  75-80 mph
Path Lentgh:  1.5 miles
Path Width:  75 yards
Fatalities:  0
Injuries:  0
Start time:  4:46 PM CDT
End time:  4:52 PM CDT

***Nicollet tornado number 2***

Rating:  EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind:  55-60 mph
Path Length:  0.6 miles
Path Width:  25 yards
Fatalities:  0
Injuries:  0
Start time:  5:04 PM CDT
End time:  5:09 PM CDT

***New Sweden tornado***

Rating:  EF-1
Estimated Peak Wind:  100-105 mph
Path Length:  3.1 miles
Path Width:  75 yards
Fatalities:  0
Injuries:  0
Start time:  5:35 PM CDT
End time:  5:47 PM CDT

***Winthrop tornado number 1***

Rating:  EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind:  80 mph
Path Length:  0.25 miles
Path Width:  75 yards
Fatalities:  0
Injuries:  0
Start time:  6:26 PM CDT
End time:  6:26 PM CDT

***Winthrop tornado number 2***

Rating:  EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind:  80 mph
Path Length:  0.16 miles
Path Width:  25 yards
Fatalities:  0
Injuries:  0
Start time:  6:33 PM CDT
End time:  6:33 PM CDT

***New Prague tornado***

Rating:  EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind:  55-60 mph
Path Length:  0.5 miles
Path Width:  10 yards
Fatalities:  0
Injuries:  0
Start time:  7:05 PM CDT
End time:  7:08 PM CDT

***Lester Prairie tornado***

Rating:  EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind:  75 mph
Path Length:  Brief
Path Width:  30 yards
Fatalities:  0
Injuries:  0
Start time:  8:08 PM CDT
End time:  8:08 PM CDT

Rainfall reports from August 16-17, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Iron Junction, MN 3 W:  4.80 in
Virginia, MN 5 N:  4.31 in
Iron Junction, MN 3 ESE:  4.25 in
Aurora, MN:  4.18 in
Fort Ripley, MN 3 NE:  3.45 in
Meadowlands, MN 2 SSW:  3.34 in
Hibbing, MN 5 E:  3.31 in
Brainerd, MN 3 NE:  3.13 in
Ely, MN 5 S:  2.96 in
Jacobson, MN:  2.56 in
Gunn, MN 4 SSW:  2.50 in
Grand Rapids, MN 7 SSW:  2.48 in
Keewatin, MN:  2.41 in
Manitou, MN 4 E:  2.40 in
Embarrass, MN:  2.33 in
Alborn, MN:  2.00 in
Floodwood, MN:  1.82 in
Hayward, WI:  1.65 in
Beaver Bay, MN 1 NW:  1.62 in
International Falls, MN:  1.60 in
Clam Lake, WI 3 W:  1.51 in
Brule, WI 11 SSE:  1.51 in
Duluth, MN (Lincoln Park)  1.50 in
Isabella, MN 1 W:  1.47 in
Duluth, MN (Airport)  1.35 in
Grantsburg, WI:  1.29 in
Two Harbors, MN:  1.28 in
Ashland, WI:  1.19 in
Fifield, WI 10 WSW:  1.14 in
Bayfield, WI:  1.11 in
Glidden, WI:  1.08 in
Big Falls, MN:  1.05 in
Crane Lake, MN 3 W:  1.02 in
Washburn, WI:  0.85 in
Minong, WI 7 WNW:  0.77 in
South Range, WI 4 SSE:  0.59 in
Grand Portage, MN:  0.28 in

Weather Synopsis

A potent storm system brought widespread soaking rain to the Northland during the past 24 hours.  This storm also produced strong gusty easterly winds near Lake Superior with a peak wind gust of 38 mph at the Duluth Harbor, and 32 mph at the Duluth Airport earlier this morning.

At 4 PM today low pressure of 1000mb was over western Upper Michigan with mostly light rain showers and patchy drizzle continuing to affect parts of northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin on the backside of this low -- Skies were mostly cloudy across the entire Northland today but clearing is slowly working its way to the east out of western Minnesota late this afternoon.

Because of the clouds and rain today, highs were on the cool side with temperatures in the 60s.

Low pressure will be tracking east through Upper Michigan tonight.  Lingering showers in parts of the Northland this evening followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies with areas of fog.  Lows in the 40s and 50s.

Warmer temperatures return Friday but there is a chance for a few showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon-evening hours thanks to an upper level disturbance which moves southeast out of the northern Plains.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies Friday with highs in the 70s.

Saturday looks like the nicer day of the weekend with dry conditions while high temperatures range from the upper 70s to mid 80s!

Note:  There is a chance for a few showers or thunderstorms late Saturday night through Sunday morning as a cold front approaches from the west while instability increases with elevated CAPE possibly exceeding 2000 j/kg in portions of our area early Sunday morning.

High temperatures Sunday afternoon are forecast to be in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Areas of fog possible.  Low 52 to 57.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Milder.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few late afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 73 to 78.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly sunny.  High 78 to 83.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  74
Low:   55

Sunrise Friday:  6:11 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:13 PM CDT

Tim




Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Rain, heavy downpours and some thunder tonight with gusty east winds near Lake Superior. Rain Thursday AM followed by some PM clearing; Warming up Friday-Sunday (Little muggy by Sunday)

/Issued 5:45 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 16, 2017/

Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov
















Source:  https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov

18z HRRRX model


















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Radar loop through 5:20 PM CDT, August 16, 2017.

Red polygons=Tornado warnings

A bit of a lull in the rainfall here in Duluth (5:30 PM) but a lot more rain to come as the rain currently in southern Minnesota lifts north during the night with additional rain expected to develop farther north through the evening hours.
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

A classic looking storm (Sure looks like something you'd see during the fall months, not so much in late summer)

Water vapor satellite loop from August 16, 2017 (Ending at 5:15 PM CDT)
















Source:  https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov



















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

It's been chilly not only here in the Northland but over all of the Midwest so far this month.  Image below is the average temperature - Departure from average map from August 1-15, 2017.




















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Precipitation departure map from August 1-15, 2017.





















First half of August Climate Stats for select cities

August 1-15, 2017

Duluth, Minnesota

Average temperature:  62.5 degrees
Departure:  -3.1 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  2.58"
Departure:  +0.83" above normal

International Falls, Minnesota

Average temperature:  62.0 degrees
Departure:  -2.6 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  1.64"
Departure:  +0.26" above normal

Twin Cities, Minnesota

Average temperature:  69.1 degrees
Departure:  -3.3 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  2.35"
Departure:  +0.15" above normal

St. Cloud, Minnesota

Average temperature:  64.8 degrees
Departure:  -4.3 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  2.48"
Departure:  +0.74" above normal

Eau Claire, Wisconsin

Average temperature:  65.5 degrees
Departure:  -5.0 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  1.72"
Departure:  -0.53" below normal

Marquette, Michigan

Average temperature:  60.5 degrees
Departure:  -4.3 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  2.31"
Departure:  +0.82" above normal

Note:  I think there is a fairly good chance that August will be a below average temperature month in the cities listed above -- Although will likely have a few days of warmer temperatures the rest of this month, it probably won't be enough to tilt us to above average temperatures for the month.

Weather Synopsis

Took a little later for the rain to arrive today (About 2 hours later than what I thought for Duluth) But the rain has been spreading south to north across the Northland this morning and afternoon, however, most of northwest Wisconsin has been dry through 3 PM.  Skies were generally mostly cloudy today but there's been some sun in extreme northeast Minnesota and also over portions of northwest Wisconsin.  Highs today were in the 60s and 70s with a gusty east wind near Lake Superior.

Surface map at 3 PM today had low pressure of 1006mb over northwest Iowa.

Rain tonight through Thursday morning as an area of low pressure strengthens while moving from far northwest Iowa to near Minnneapolis, Minnesota by daybreak -- This low will then track E/NE through central/northeast Wisconsin Thursday afternoon before moving to the east of Lake Superior on Friday.  The central pressure of the surface low is forecast to deepen from 1006mb this evening to ~998mb by Thursday afternoon (Quite a strong low for the time of year)

Abundant deep moisture is already in place across our area this afternoon with PWATS ranging from 1.30" to 1.70", in fact these values could climb a little more tonight to around 1.80" in some parts of the area.

The forcing associated with the approaching low, and also with the strong wind maximums to our north and south will enhance the lift even more in our area tonight-Thursday morning which will lead to periods of moderate to heavy rainfall in northeast Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin.

Elevated instability will also increase from S-N tonight with CAPE of 100-500 j/kg, this will likely cause a few thunderstorms to pass through parts of the Northland tonight with occasional lightning and heavy downpours being the primary hazards from that activity.

Rain will diminish from W-E Thursday late morning through the afternoon hours but overcast skies will likely continue at least into early Afternoon before a clearing trend takes place from W-E from mid afternoon through the early evening hours.

Low temperatures tonight will be on the mild side thanks to the clouds and rain.  Lows will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.  It'll be cool on Thursday with the clouds sticking around at least for half the day, highs will be in the 60s except in far eastern parts of northwest Wisconsin and in far western areas in Minnesota where a few locations could climb into the lower 70s.

Highs Friday will mainly be in the 70s and there is a chance for a few afternoon-evening showers or thunderstorms.

Saturday looks mainly dry at the moment with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

70s and 80s for Sunday, also turning a little more humid with dew points Sunday afternoon in the 60s in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible later in the day or Sunday night as a cold front approaches from the west.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Occasional rain and drizzle along with some fog.  Heavy downpours and a few rumbles of thunder possible.  Low 57 to 61.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday...  Occasional rain during the morning.  Rain diminishing in the afternoon.  Mostly cloudy but some clearing is possible later in the day.  High 61 to 65.  Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  74
Low:   55

Sunrise Thursday:  6:09 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:15 PM CDT

Tim

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Dry tonight; Occasional rain (Heavy at times) Wednesday-Thursday AM, thunder possible. Warming up Fri-Sun (Spotty PM storms possible)

/Issued 6:04 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 15, 2017/


21z HRRR model run.
















Note:  These past few storms sure look like something you'd see during the fall-winter months vs. the summer months.  Very well developed systems for late summer!  The next one hits Wednesday, lingers into Thursday.































Wednesday's storm starting to come together this afternoon across the Rockies and Plains -- Water vapor satellite loop through 5:30 PM, August 15, 2017.
















Weather Synopsis

A pleasant mid August day under partly to mostly sunny skies with a mixture of high level clouds and cumulus clouds over the Northland this afternoon.  Highs today were in the 70s with a few locales up north making it into the lower 80s while mid-upper 60s prevailed closer to Lake Superior due to easterly winds to 20 mph today.

Most of tonight looks dry in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Lows will range from the 40s in extreme northeast Minnesota to the 50s elsewhere.  Several areas of low pressure will be over the Rockies and western High Plains tonight and these lows will start to affect us on Wednesday.

Ahead of the low to our SW will be a southerly low level jet at around 30-40 knots which will transport deep moisture into our area on Wednesday.  PWATS this afternoon ranged from 0.70" to around 1.00" but by Wednesday afternoon PWATS will range from around 1.50" to 1.90" -- So there is no shortage of moisture with this next storm.

Should see several waves of rain affect the Northland beginning Wednesday morning and lasting through Thursday morning.  Embedded pockets of heavier rain will likely develop especially from late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning, that's when the surface low starts to deepen while lifting NE out of south central Minnesota.  Good jet dynamics will also accompany this system, and this plus an increase in elevated instability with CAPE of a couple hundred J/KG should lead to some convective elements (Heavy bursts of rain and some thunder) in parts of northeast and east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Wednesday night.

Note:  There is still some model disagreement with the placement of the heaviest axis of rain but this seems to be favoring east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, including the Twin Ports and Highway 2 corridor in northeast Minnesota -- Rainfall totals in this area by Thursday afternoon could range from 1 inch to as much as 3 inches in a few spots.  Rain totals in northern Minnesota should remain under an inch the way it looks now.

Rain Thursday morning is expected to diminish from west to east Thursday afternoon as low pressure lifts into the central/eastern Great Lakes region -- Skies will begin to clear from west to east Thursday afternoon.

High temperatures Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s so warmer than what it looked like 24 hours ago.  Probably won't be setting a top 5 coldest high temperature in Duluth or International Falls Wednesday (16th)

Thursday's highs will mainly be in the 60s but far western areas (International Falls to Brainerd) could sneak into the lower 70s if skies clear soon enough.

Friday through Sunday looks a little better although still can't get rid of those pesky rain chances.  High temps Friday, Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be in the 70s, maybe up near 80 degrees.  Also looks a little humid this weekend.  There could be a few showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon, Saturday afternoon and again on Sunday.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 53 to 58.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday...  Breezy.  Rain developing after 9 AM with occasional rain during the afternoon.  Drizzle and fog possible.  High 60 to 65.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Wednesday night...  Breezy.  Rain.  Isolated thunderstorms possible.  Lows in the 50s.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday...  Rain during the morning.  Mostly cloudy in the afternoon with some clearing developing later in the afternoon.  Highs in the 60s.  Wind becoming northwest.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  75
Low:   55

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:08 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:16 PM CDT

Tim




Monday, August 14, 2017

6 one inch or greater precipitation events so far this year at Duluth, MN (Annual average is 6) Dry Tuesday; Rainstorm hits Wednesday along with gusty east winds!

/Issued 4:56 PM CDT, Monday, August 14, 2017/

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov















Dry Tuesday but rain returns Wednesday and it could be heavy at times!
















Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/

Watch the clearing trend this afternoon in northeast Minnesota in this visible satellite loop which goes from around 8 AM to just before 5 PM today, August 14, 2017 (Updates every 5 minutes)


Rainfall totals from August 13-14, 2017
Source:  http://mesowest.utah.eduhttp://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Note:  Totals listed below are from 7 AM Sunday, ending around 3 PM Monday

Minong, WI:  1.22 in
Brainerd, MN:  0.97 in
Gordon, WI:  0.78 in
Solon Springs, WI:  0.75 in
Siren, WI:  0.35 in
Hayward, WI:  0.31 in
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.29 in
Hinckley, MN:  0.28 in
Moose Lake, MN:  0.23 in
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.23 in
Barnes, WI:  0.22 in
Floodwood, MN:  0.22 in
Babbitt, MN:  0.22 in
Saginaw, MN:  0.18 in
Phillips, WI:  0.17 in
Ashland, WI:  0.15 in
Washburn, WI:  0.13 in
Grand Portage, MN:  0.13 in
Clam Lake, WI:  0.10 in
Glidden, WI:  0.10 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.10 in
Ely, MN:  0.05 in

Note:  The longest dry streak so far this summer at Duluth, Minnesota has been 4 days which occurred from July 28-31 (No rainfall during that period)  Second longest dry streak was 3 days in a row which occurred two times in July; The first from the 2nd-4th; The second from the 14th-16th.  Otherwise the pattern since June 1st has been for 1 or 2 dry days, followed by rain.  Not seeing much of a change in the pattern we've been in this summer anytime soon.

Note:  So far this year -- 6 one inch or greater precipitation events at Duluth, Minnesota.  The annual average is 6.  So we've already hit the average mark and we're only in mid August.  By the way, 2016 had 7 one inch or greater precipitation events.  Note:  The record number of one inch or greater precipitation events in a year is 13 which was set in 1991.

Weather Synopsis

Still seeing some spotty rain showers in parts of the area late this afternoon but the overall trend has been for less rain and more sun this afternoon.  The latest rain system to affect us continues to pull off to the east with a weak area of low pressure near Green Bay, Wisconsin at 3 PM today.  To the northwest was a small but potent disturbance which is dropping S-SE out of southern Ontario Province, this feature coupled with cold temps aloft and some instability has led to the development of a few showers in extreme northeast Minnesota today, there's also been a few showers west of Highway 53 and east of Highway 169 in northeast and east central Minnesota.

As of 4 PM skies were mostly cloudy in northwest Wisconsin while partly to mostly sunny skies were found in northern Minnesota.  High temperatures today ranged from the mid to upper 70s in northern Minnesota to the 60s in northwest Wisconsin and around the head of Lake Superior -- Low 70s were common from the Brainerd Lakes to Iron Range and along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Spotty showers this evening will give way to clear to partly cloudy skies tonight with patchy fog possible.  Lows will range from the middle 40s to upper 50s.  Tuesday looks pretty nice, and it will be dry.  Highs in the 70s with 60s closer to Lake Superior.  Could be some fog around the area mainly in the morning.

Unfortunately the dry weather won't stick around past Tuesday as another well developed summer storm takes aim at the Northland for midweek -- Low pressure is forecast to be near the Nebraska-Kansas state line Wednesday morning, the surface low is then forecast to lift northeast toward north central Wisconsin by Thursday morning (Possibly taking on a bit of a negative tilt as it moves into Wisconsin) Impressive jet dynamics with this system with ~100 knot upper level winds to our north and another intensifying jet streak ~60 knots developing over the upper Midwest on Wednesday.  Should have a tremendous amount of lift in the atmosphere which will result in a widespread rain event for the Northland.  Note:  PWATS of 1.50" to around 2.00" will be in place so the possibility does exist for heavy downpours and some flooding in some parts of the area Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Note:  At the moment the zone of heaviest rainfall looks to setup over east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, including the Twin Ports area...Rainfall totals of 1-2" or more are possible where this zone of heaviest rainfall sets up.

As for the timing of when the rain begins -- Looks like between 9-11 AM Wednesday for here in Duluth, earlier farther southwest, and a little later farther north.  Timing could change though since we're still a day away from this event.  There could also be a few showers around in parts of the area later Tuesday night but the bulk of the rain looks to arrive during the day Wednesday.

Thursday doesn't look much better with rain continuing in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin although the rain should diminish from NW-SE by the afternoon the way it looks now.

Very cool high temperatures for both Wednesday and Thursday with daytime highs only in the 50s and 60s thanks to the clouds and rain.  Note:  Possibly a top 5 coldest HIGH temperature on record Wednesday and or Thursday in Duluth and possibly International Falls.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Areas of low clouds or fog possible late.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable.

.Tuesday...  Low clouds or fog possible early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 67 to 72.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday...  Breezy.  Rain developing in the morning.  Rain for the afternoon.  High around 60.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  75
Low:   55

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:07 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:18 PM CDT

Tim



Sunday, August 13, 2017

Rain tonight, spotty rain Monday, rain late Tuesday night, rain Wednesday

/Issued 4:41 PM CDT, Sunday, August 13, 2017/

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Radar loop ending at 4:25 PM CDT, August 13, 2017.  Light rain continues to lift slowly northeast through parts of the Northland late this afternoon.

















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Today's system moving into Minnesota as it looked on water vapor satellite imagery.
















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of August 6, 2017.




















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of August 6, 2017.





















Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

August 6-12, 2017

High temperatures - Departure from normal

8/6:  71 F/-5 degrees below normal
8/7:  78 F/+2 degrees above normal
8/8:  80 F/+4 degrees above normal
8/9:  75 F/-1 degree below normal
8/10:  66 F/-10 degrees below normal
8/11:  74 F/-1 degree below normal
8/12:  78 F/+3 degrees above normal

Low temperatures - Departure from normal

8/6:  50 F/-6 degrees below normal
8/7:  48 F/-8 degrees below normal
8/8:  56 F/Normal
8/9:  55 F/Normal
8/10:  55 F/Normal
8/11:  50 F/-5 degrees below normal
8/12:  50 F/-5 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  0.99"
Normal:  0.84"
Departure:  +0.15" above normal

Weather Synopsis

The rain is back, just in case some people missed it after two whole days of dry weather.  Today's rain has generally been on the light side as low pressure at the surface and aloft inch their way into western Minnesota.  The best weather on this Sunday was over far northern Minnesota where a mix of sun/clouds were common today with highs in the low to mid 70s from International Falls to Ely To Grand Marais -- These milder temperatures combined with some cooler air aloft did help in developing a few spotty showers in far northern Minnesota this afternoon.

The remainder of the Northland was socked in by widespread clouds with light rain and drizzle lifting slowly northeast out of central/eastern Minnesota this afternoon -- Highs in east central Minnesota were mainly in the 60s today while in northwest Wisconsin highs ranged from the mid 60s to low 70s.  Note:  Here in Duluth, the high temperature occurred before Noon today (Around 70 F) temperatures this afternoon have fallen into the low to mid 60s as the light rain moved in.

Occasional light rain, showers and patchy drizzle will continue tonight and Monday in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin thanks to a slow moving low pressure system and trough of low pressure -- This system will remain over the upper Midwest through Monday before it exits to the south/east by early Tuesday morning.  Lows tonight ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s.  Highs Monday ranging from the low 60s to upper 70s with the warmest temperatures once again covering far northern portions of Minnesota (Bigfork to north of Ely and points north where rain chances are much lower)

A brief break in the rain Monday night and most of Tuesday (Oh boy!)  More rain returns Tuesday night, lingers through Wednesday night as another low pressure system moves in from the west and south.  Might even squeeze out a rumble of thunder with that one.

Rainfall totals from August 13, 2017 (Totals through ~4PM)
Source:  http://mesowest.utah.edu

Brainerd, MN:  0.29 in
Pine River, MN:  0.26 in
Walker, MN:  0.25 in
Cass Lake, MN:  0.18 in
McGregor, MN:  0.09 in
Moose Lake, MN:  0.07 in
Hill City, MN:  0.06 in
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.03 in

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Occasional light rain and drizzle.  Overcast.  Patchy fog.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind southwest around 10 mph becoming east.

.Monday...  Occasional light rain and drizzle.  Considerable cloudiness.  Patchy fog possible.  High 62 to 67.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 66 to 71.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  75
Low:   55

Sunrise Monday:  6:05 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:20 PM CDT

Tim






Saturday, August 12, 2017

Dry tonight; Increasing clouds Sunday with showers possible in the afternoon-evening (Highs in the 70s) Back to back top 5 coldest lows on record at International Falls (Aug 11 and 12)

/Issued 7:12 PM CDT, Saturday, August 12, 2017/

Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/dlhwrf

18z Duluth WRF model
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Water vapor satellite image; Surface analysis from 5:30 PM CDT, Saturday, August 12, 2017.
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Radar loop centered on North Dakota through 7:20 PM CDT August 12, 2017.

Red boxes=Tornado warnings
Yellow boxes=Severe thunderstorm warnings

Note:  Although there is severe weather over the Dakotas this evening, this system as it moves into the Northland Sunday will have much less instability to work with, so no severe weather in our area Sunday, just some rain showers.
















Weather Synopsis

There's been a few showers this afternoon in extreme northeast Minnesota, mainly over Cook County, otherwise it was a nice/dry summer day in the Northland with highs ranging from the middle 70s to around 80 degrees under a partly to mostly sunny sky.

The wet summer of 2017 continues -- Seems like we just can't get more than 2-3 days in a row without any rain this summer.  Our next rain maker is currently over the Dakotas this afternoon, and this system which consists of an upper level and surface area of low pressure will move slowly east into the upper Midwest on Sunday.  As this system moves east it will bring some showers to parts of the Northland from Sunday morning through Monday morning.  Note:  At the moment it looks like western-southern sections of the area have the greatest chance to get some rain on Sunday with a lesser chance north of a line from Cook to Tofte on north.  Generally light to perhaps moderate rain showers with this system , no real threat for thunder as instability will be very weak.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies for tonight with lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s.  More clouds Sunday compared to Saturday with highs in the 60s and 70s...Warmest temperatures likely over northern Minnesota, coolest around the Brainerd Lakes area.

Showers could linger in parts of east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Monday, and then will wait for our next system which looks to affect us from Tuesday evening through Wednesday night...More rain with that one, and maybe a few thunderstorms as well, but the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms is very low for here in the Northland.

Note:  High temps from Monday through Friday (14th-18th) look pretty similar each day with temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s which is below to near normal for mid August -- Beyond the 18th there is a chance for a more sustained warm up for the upper Midwest with a couple days of 80+ degree high temperatures possible during the 20th-26th time frame, but will see if this holds up in coming days as the long range computer models have been too aggressive in bringing persistent warmth this far east throughout the summer.

A top 5 coldest low temperature on record on August 12, 2017 at International Falls, Minnesota.  See top 5 list below.

1:  36 degrees set in 1906
2:  39 degrees set in 1990 and 1916
3:  40 degrees set in 2014, 1951, 1950 and 1898
4:  41 degrees set in 1964
5:  42 degrees set in 2017

Note:  Another top 5 coldest low temperature on record occurred August 11, 2017 at International Falls, Minnesota.  See top 5 list below.

1:  34 degrees set in 1954
2:  36 degrees set in 1997
3:  38 degrees set in 1979, 1968 and 1950
4:  39 degrees set in 1982 and 1951
5:  41 degrees set in 2017, 2012 and 1967

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 53 to 58.  Wind southwest around 10 mph.

.Sunday...  Increasing cloudiness.  Showers possible during the afternoon.  High 72 to 76.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday night...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Lows in the 50s.  Wind becoming east.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  75
Low:   55

Sunrise Sunday:  6:04 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   8:22 PM CDT

Tim