Friday, September 21, 2018

Northland Weather: Frost Advisory early Saturday morning for parts of northeast MN and northwest WI. Rainfall reports from Thursday in this post

/Issued 5:07 PM CDT, Friday, September 21, 2018/

Source:  http://www.intellicast.com

A frost advisory is in effect for parts of northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin for late tonight through Saturday morning (12 AM to 8 AM) Shaded area on map.  Low temperatures falling into the mid 30s in the advisory area with frost developing overnight-early Saturday morning.
















Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European computer model (ECMWF) 9-21-2018

Saturday looks like a nice fall day in the Northland, although it will be cooler in far northern Minnesota with more clouds and possible showers.  The colder temps sitting north of our area on Saturday will push farther south for Sunday.
















Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/
















Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

12z NAM-Nest model 9-21-2018

Looking at quite a temperature contrast for Sunday afternoon with temperatures ranging from around 90 degrees near the South Dakota-Nebraska border to around 40 degrees in far northeastern Minnesota!
















Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM-Nest model 9-21-2018
















Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 9-21-2018

Computer models remain in very good agreement in showing a classic cold weather pattern for the upper Midwest and northern Plains roughly from September 28 through October 4 -- Note timing could change a bit.  We're looking at lows in the 20s and 30s in the Northland with daytime highs holding in the 40s, and in some locations highs might not get out of the 30s next weekend into early the following week!  Certainly looking at a potential for record or a top 5 coldest high and low temp on record for some locations in the Northland next weekend!
















Rainfall totals for September 20-21, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Glidden, WI:  3.88 in
Sarona, WI:  3.68 in
3 N Butternut, WI:  2.82 in
Grand Portage, MN:  1.99 in
Littlefork, MN:  1.71 in
Wolf Ridge, MN:  1.69 in
International Falls, MN:  1.53 in
1 NW Spooner, WI:  1.49 in
Crane Lake, MN:  1.48 in
Cass Lake, MN:  1.36 in
Silver Bay, MN:  1.34 in
Bayfield, WI:  1.33 in
Hayward, WI:  1.32 in
Lester Park, MN:  1.27 in
1 ESE Esko, MN:  1.26 in
Chisholm, MN:  1.24 in
2 NE Duluth, MN:  1.22 in
2 E Wrenshall, MN:  1.20 in
2 ENE Oliver, WI:  1.19 in
Superior, WI:  1.19 in
Cook, MN:  1.15 in
Barnes, WI:  1.12 in
Ashland, WI:  1.05 in
Embarrass, MN:  0.96 in
Walker, MN:  0.91 in
Bruno, MN:  0.88 in
1 W Isabella, MN:  0.87 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.85 in
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.82 in
Floodwood, MN:  0.80 in
Duluth Airport:  0.78 in
Brainerd, MN:  0.52 in

Peak Wind Gusts over the last 24 hours
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

September 20-21, 2018

Duluth Airport:  45 mph
Devils Island:  43 mph
Duluth Harbor:  41 mph
International Falls, MN:  38 mph
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport:  38 mph
2 SE Bayfield, WI:  38 mph
Grand Rapids, MN:  36 mph
Ashland, WI:  36 mph
Two Harbors, MN:  35 mph
2 SW Proctor, MN:  35 mph
Northome, MN:  35 mph

...Climate Data for September 20, 2018...

International Falls, Minnesota

2nd wettest September 20 on record with a rainfall total on Thursday of 0.75 inches.  The wettest September 20 on record occurred in 2017 with 0.95 inches of rain.

Ashland, Wisconsin

2nd wettest September 20 on record with a rainfall total on Thursday of 1.05 inches.  The wettest September 20 on record occurred in 1913 with 1.58 inches of rain.

Hibbing, Minnesota

3rd wettest September 20 on record with a rainfall total on Thursday of 0.97 inches.  The wettest September 20 on record occurred in 1959 with 1.15 inches of rain.

Note:  So far 3 tornadoes have been confirmed by the National Weather Service from the severe weather in southern Minnesota Thursday evening -- More details at this link https://www.weather.gov/mpx/20180920_Severe_Weather

Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 22

High:  62
Low:   44

Sunrise Saturday:  6:56 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   7:06 PM CDT

Tim

Thursday, September 20, 2018

Northland Weather -- 3 PM update: Gusty NE winds through this evening (30-40 mph) Rain, scattered t-storms tonight

/Issued 3:08 PM CDT, Thursday, September 20, 2018/

Source:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov













Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Radar loop ending at 3:10 PM CDT, Thursday, September 20, 2018.

Stronger thunderstorms lifting north/east across south-central Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin at 3 PM today with widespread light to moderate rain affecting northern Minnesota late this afternoon.
















Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

19z (2 PM) HRRR model run

Simulated Radar forecast valid through 8 AM Friday.

It's going to be a rainy evening across the Northland with some heavier rain and thunderstorms possible as well.  Some more rain is possible overnight/Friday morning as low pressure pulls away from our area but is followed by an upper level trough.  Gusty north-northwest winds on the way for Friday with rain ending from west-east followed by some sun by mid or late afternoon.
















Source:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov

12z HREF model
















Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Thursday, September 20, 2018

Loop time:  10:07 AM to 2:42 PM CDT

A pretty strong storm coming together today as low pressure lifts northeast out of eastern Nebraska while an mid/upper level trough swings E-NE out of the northern Rockies.












3 PM Update:

...Gale Warning... remains in effect until 1 AM Friday for western Lake Superior.  Northeast winds will continue to increase with gusts 30 to 45 mph through this evening.  Wave heights building to 8 to 16 feet.

...East winds have been on the strong side near Lake Superior today with wind gusts to 37 mph reported at the Duluth Harbor at 3 PM today.  Gusty east winds will continue through the evening with wind gusts from 30 to around 40 mph.  Winds will diminish overnight, shift to the NW then will increase again on Friday...

Large scale forcing continues to increase across the Northland this afternoon as low pressure and warm front approach from the SW -- So far the rain today has been on the light side with rainfall amounts under 0.25 inches through 3 PM, but we should see bands of heavier rainfall develop while impacting parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through the evening hours as better forcing occurs due to the approaching surface low and warm front.

Scattered thunderstorms are also expected late this afternoon and evening mainly from east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.  Damaging winds and large hail will be the main severe threats up in our area.  A high shear but low cape setup in place in eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin this evening with the better instability likely staying a little farther to the south.

Tim


Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Strong late summer/early fall storm on the way! NE gales develop Thursday over western Lake Superior; Widespread rain, heavy at times Thu-Thu evening; Risk of severe t-storms in parts of northwest WI Thursday afternoon/evening; Rain could mix with snow Fri AM in parts of far northern MN

/Issued 5:43 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 19, 2018/

Source:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov
















Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European computer model (ECMWF) 9-19-2018
















Source:  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov















Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Ingredients are already in place for Thursday's storm including a plume of deep moisture stretching from Mexico to the upper Midwest, strengthening jet stream winds to our north and also off to our west while energy approaches from the Pacific northwest while low pressure heads NE out of Colorado.












Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European computer model  (ECMWF) 9-19-2018
















Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday across much of southern/eastern Minnesota into central/northern Wisconsin.  Large hail and damaging winds will be the main severe weather threats, but a few tornadoes are also possible especially in the Enhanced Risk area Thursday afternoon-evening.  Stay Weather Aware!

























Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM-Nest model

Updraft Helicity Forecast valid from 7 AM Thursday to 10 PM Thursday -- This shows where there is potential for rotating thunderstorms (Supercell development) for Thursday shown by the green, yellow, orange and red colors on the map. 
















A few towns in far northern Minnesota could see their first snow flurries of the season Friday morning!











Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM-Nest model 9-19-2018

Simulated Radar Forecast valid from 5 AM Friday to 2 PM Friday.

Not a certainty just yet, but its possible if the cold air comes in quick enough that will see the rain mix with some snow Friday morning in a few spots across far northern Minnesota, the NAM model shown below shows this possibility (Blue colors=Snow) 
















Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 9-19-2018














Weather Synopsis

Skies were mostly cloudy today over most of the Northland except in far northern Minnesota where skies were sunny at times.  Highs ranged from the lower 60s from Bigfork, Orr, Cook, Crane Lake to International Falls with 50s elsewhere.

Surface map at 5 PM had an area of low pressure ~1002mb over eastern Colorado with a warm front from central Nebraska to central Iowa.  An upper level trough covered the Pacific northwest while winds aloft turn SW ahead of this trough.

[Tonight]

A few showers are possible tonight in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Partly to mostly cloudy with lows ranging from the lower 40s in far northern Minnesota to the 50s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  East winds near Lake Superior gusting to around 20 mph.

[Thursday]

Forcing will increase Thursday as low pressure approaches from the SW while an upper trough swings in from the W, in addition to this will be stronger winds aloft which will setup to our N-NE and to our W -- All of this points to what should be a tremendous amount of lift in the atmosphere which will lead to widespread rainfall in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. 

As the low and warm front approach from the southwest in the afternoon/evening, heavier rain and embedded thunderstorms will be possible as warm air advection and moisture advection is maximized especially from east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin -- A few of the storms could become strong to severe Thursday afternoon/evening with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary hazards in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but an isolated risk for tornadoes could also develop early Thursday evening (~5 PM to 9 PM) from Hinckley and Pine City toward the Hayward lakes.

Note:  Strong northeasterly winds will also occur especially near Lake Superior Thursday and Thursday evening with wind gusts from 30 to around 50 mph.

[Looking Ahead]

Low pressure will continue to impact the Northland Friday as it lifts NE out of east-central Lake Superior.  Gusty NW winds and cold air advection will be occurring on the backside of this low with lingering rain showers which will come to an end from W-E by Friday afternoon.

Our next shot for precipitation occurs later in the weekend as low pressure heads NE out of the northern Plains -- This system should bring another round of rain and possibly a few thunderstorms to the Northland Sunday into Monday.  There is also a chance for a rain/snow mix in extreme northern Minnesota Saturday night and Sunday.

Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 20

High:  63
Low:   44

Sunrise Thursday:  6:53 PM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   7:10 PM CDT

Tim







Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Northland Weather: Rainy pattern ahead with widespread rain expected Thursday and again early next week. Some rain also possible Wed, mainly in eastern MN/northern WI. Gusty NE winds near Lake Superior Thursday, gusts 25-30+ mph!

/Issued 5:05 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/
















Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Loop time:  12:07 PM to 5:27 PM

Generally overcast skies over the Northland today, but there has been some thinning in the clouds to allow for some sun at times.












Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM 9-18-2018
















Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

18z NAM model 9-18-2018














Source:  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov















Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

12z GEFS model 9-18-2018

Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid through October 4, 2018.

Blue colors=Below average temperatures
Orange/red colors=Above average temperatures

The Northland looks to have generally below average temperatures into early October, yes we could have a milder day mixed in here and there, but the overall trend is for cooler than normal temperatures during the next 2 weeks or so.














Weather Synopsis

Mid to upper level winds are generally out of the west across the region today while an upper level trough turns the upper level winds more to the southwest over the Pacific northwest per RAP model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  The combination of a frontal boundary sitting south of Minnesota and embedded disturbances in the westerly flow aloft passing through the upper Midwest has caused a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall across the southern half of Minnesota over the last 24 hours, almost all of this rain has stayed south of the Northland though.  Our local area had partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies today with areas of fog and drizzle at times.  Highs ranged from the mid 50s to low 60s.

[Tonight]

Partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight with lows ranging from the upper 30s to lower 50s.  A few spotty showers can't be ruled out mainly over southern portions of the area, but most of us should be dry tonight.

[Wednesday]

There could be some rain at times affecting southern portions of the Northland on Wednesday, but the greater chance for rain should setup just a little farther south.  Mainly dry in northern Minnesota.  Two fronts will impact the upper Midwest Wednesday with a cold front over northern Minnesota and a stationary front near the Minnesota-Iowa border.  Highs Wednesday will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s.

[Looking Ahead]

The big weather story will be the system that is set to bring widespread soaking rains to the Northland for Thursday.  Low pressure is still forecast to lift northeast out of eastern Colorado during the middle of the week, this low could deepen a bit as it lifts through the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes late this week -- This low combined with an upper level trough approaching from the west coupled with strong jet stream dynamics should result in widespread lift over the upper Midwest which will lead to widespread rainfall over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for Thursday and Thursday night with some lingering showers on Friday. 

Moisture advection will be strong on Thursday with PWATS building to around 1.50 to 1.80 inches in eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin so some heavy rainfall rates are certainly possible as a warm front lifts NE toward those areas.  Scattered thunderstorms are also possible Thursday mostly over eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin as some elevated instability builds NE out of southern Minnesota.

Note:  There is another system showing up in the long range model guidance for early next week but the strength, track and timing of this potential storm are uncertain, but another round of rain, possibly heavy with some thunder is possible in parts of the Northland between Sunday night-Tuesday, September 23-25 the way it looks now.

Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 19

High:  64
Low:   45

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:52 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:12 PM CDT

Tim




Monday, September 17, 2018

Northland Weather: Few showers possible tonight mainly in east central MN/northwest WI. Midweek rain event, heavy rain possible!

/Issued 5:25 PM CDT, Monday, September 17, 2018/


















Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Monday, September 17, 2018.

Loop time:  12:02 PM to 5:22 PM.

Showers and thunderstorms have been affecting much of the southern half of Minnesota today with mid to high level clouds farther north.












Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Radar loop ending at 5:45 PM CDT, Monday, September 17, 2018.

Showers and thunderstorms continue late this afternoon in southeast Minnesota and in parts of western/southwest Wisconsin, movement of this activity is mainly toward the east.
















Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European Computer Model (ECMWF) 9-17-2018
















Climate Data for September 16, 2018

International Falls, Minnesota

A new record high temperature was set for September 16 with a high on Sunday of 87 degrees -- This beat the previous record high of 85 degrees which was set in 1911 and tied in 1922.

Tied for 5th warmest low temperature on record for September 16 with a low on Sunday of 57 degrees.  The warmest low temperature on record for September 16 is 66 degrees set in 2015.

Brainerd, Minnesota

A new record high temperature was set for September 16 with a high on Sunday of 89 degrees -- This beat the previous record high of 82 degrees which was set in 1927 and tied in 1968, 1987 and in 2015.

A new record warmest low temperature was set for September 16 with a low on Sunday of 68 degrees -- This beat the previous record warm low temperature of 66 degrees set in 2015.

Ashland, Wisconsin

2nd warmest high temperature on record for September 16 with a high on Sunday of 87 degrees.  The record high temp for September 16 is 94 degrees set in 1948.

3rd warmest low temperature on record for September 16 with a low on Sunday of 61 degrees.  The warmest low temperature on record for September 16 is 70 degrees set in 2015.

Duluth, Minnesota

2nd warmest low temperature on record for September 16 with a low on Sunday of 62 degrees.  The warmest low temperature on record for September 16 is 67 degrees set in 2015.

Tied for 3rd warmest high temperature on record for September 16 with a high on Sunday of 80 degrees.  The record high for September 16 is 89 degrees set in 1948.

Hibbing, Minnesota

2nd warmest high temperature on record for September 16 with a high on Sunday of 85 degrees.  The record high temp for September 16 is 87 degrees set in 1948.

Tied for 2nd warmest low temperature on record for September 16 with a low on Sunday of 60 degrees.  The warmest low temperature on record for September 16 is 65 degrees set in 2015.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

5 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees -- The record for September is 10 days set in 1908, and we likely won't be breaking that record.

52 days so far this year with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees -- The record for most number of 80 degree days in a year is 53 days set in 1988.  We could squeeze out one more 80 degree day this year to tie the record from 1988, but doubtful that we would get 2 more 80 degree days to break the record, but in weather you just never really know!

Weather Synopsis

Cooler and less humid conditions across our area today with a frontal boundary now well south of the Northland, extending from northern Nebraska to central Wisconsin.  Showers and thunderstorms have been occurring near this front today in southern Minnesota with some severe weather mainly in the form of damaging winds down in that area today.  It's been mostly dry farther north up in our area today under mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies.  High temperatures today ranged from the mid 50s to mid 60s, near average to around 5 degrees below average for mid September.

[Tonight]

A few showers are possible in east-central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin tonight as some warm air advection and a slight increase in elevated instability pushes E-NE toward that area, but the better chance for more organized shower and thunderstorm development should remain farther south across south-central Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin.  Otherwise for tonight partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 40s and 50s.

[Tuesday]

Should be mainly dry in most of the Northland Tuesday, but a few showers could affect far southern areas at times.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs Tuesday in the mid 50s to low 60s, pretty similar to Monday's highs.

[Looking Ahead]

Widespread rain, possibly heavy at times is a possibility for Wednesday and Thursday as low pressure heads northeast out of Colorado, this low could intensify a bit as it swings NE into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes later in the week -- A surge of humid air lifting north ahead of this low combined with favorable jet dynamics should lead to widespread soaking rains in most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday into Thursday with areas of heavy rain and embedded thunder possible as well.  Note:  There is still some uncertainty on the track of the midweek system and where the heaviest rainfall will setup so stay tuned to later updates in coming days.

Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 18

High:  64
Low:   45

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:50 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   7:14 PM CDT

Tim


Sunday, September 16, 2018

Record warmth today (Sept 16) at International Falls and Brainerd, Minn. Cooler pattern on the way with a few chances of rain

/Issued 5:28 PM CDT, Sunday, September 16, 2018/

Source:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu

Average low temperature - Departure from normal for the week of September 9, 2018.




















Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Sunday, September 16, 2018.

Loop time:  9:52 AM to 4:07 PM.

The marine layer held tough most of the day near Lake Superior with low clouds and fog, but late this afternoon has seen some improvement as winds turn more to the south pushing most of the low clouds and fog out over the lake.  Also of note is the development of cumulus clouds lifting north on the humid southerly winds away from Lake Superior this afternoon.












Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

18z HRRR model

Simulated Radar forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM Tuesday.

This model keeps the thunderstorms and heavy rain showers south of the Twin Ports Monday.
















Source:  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

















Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/
















Source:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu

Total Precipitation - Percent of mean for the week of September 9, 2018.




















Source:  https://mrcc.illinois.edu

Temperature Departure map for the week of September 9, 2018.

Average temperature last week in Duluth was over 11 degrees above average for the period September 9 through 15 -- Incredible!




















Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

September 9-15, 2018

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

9/9:  69 F/+1 degree above normal
9/10:  76 F/+9 degrees above normal
9/11:  81 F/+14 degrees above normal
9/12:  77 F/+10 degrees above normal
9/13:  81 F/+15 degrees above normal
9/14:  80 F/+14 degrees above normal
9/15:  71 F/+6 degrees above normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

9/9:  50 F/+1 degree above normal
9/10:  52 F/+4 degrees above normal
9/11:  61 F/+13 degrees above normal
*9/12:  66 F/+18 degrees above normal
*9/13:  63 F/+16 degrees above normal
*9/14:  69 F/+22 degrees above normal
9/15:  62 F/+16 degrees above normal

*=Tied record high-low temp for the date.

Note:  Average temperature for the week of September 9:  68.4 degrees; +11.3 degrees above normal.  Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total Precipitation:  1.74 inches
Normal:  1.01 inches
Departure:  +0.73 inches above normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of September 9, 2018
Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  67.1 degrees
Departure:  +6.8 degrees above normal

Precipitation:  0.36 inches
Departure:  -0.43 inches below normal

24 hour rainfall reports
Saturday, September 15-Sunday, September 16, 2018

Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Big Falls, MN:  2.80 in
13 SSE Littlefork, MN:  2.64 in
3 S Tower, MN:  2.62 in
2 NNE Bigfork, MN:  2.35 in
Winton, MN:  2.14 in
2 NNW Hoyt Lakes, MN:  1.40 in
Skibo, MN:  1.17 in
Embarrass, MN:  1.12 in
Loman, MN:  1.04 in
2 E Celina, MN:  1.00 in
3 E Orr, MN:  0.89 in
25 E Ely, MN:  0.81 in
Babbitt, MN:  0.80 in
Cook, MN:  0.53 in
International Falls, MN:  0.35 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.20 in
Hibbing, MN:  0.11 in

Storm Reports for Seprtember 15, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

11:45 PM:  Hail -- 0.25 inch.  Ely, MN (St. Louis County)

9:22 PM:  Hail -- 0.75 inch.  5 S Tower, MN (St. Louis County)

10:00 PM:  Flash Flood -- 6 E Side Lake, MN (St. Louis County)  St. Louis County highway 65 was washed out between the Sturgeon River crossing and Luna Lake.

8:11 PM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 2 SSW Side Lake, MN (St. Louis County)  A tree was reported down near the intersection of Green Rock road and Belchner road.

2:09 AM (9/15)  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 1 NNW Gary New Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  18 inch weakened willow tree snapped off 8 ft above ground.  Trunk showed evidence of decay.

2:09 AM (9/15)  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- Gary New Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  12 inch diameter pine snapped off 6 ft above ground.

2:09 AM (9/15)  Thunderstorm Wind -- 55 mph.  Gary New Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  Wind speed estimated from tree damage.

...Climate Data for September 15, 2018...

Duluth, Minnesota

2nd warmest low temperature on record for September 15 with a low on Saturday of 62 degrees.  The warmest low temperature on record for September 15 is 66 degrees set in 1897.

3rd wettest September 15 on record with 1.74 inches on rain on Saturday.  The record wettest September 15 on record is 1.99 inches set in 1897.

Brainerd, Minnesota

2nd warmest high temperature on record for September 15 with a high on Saturday of 85 degrees.  The record high for September 15 is 89 degrees set in 1939.

2nd warmest low temperature on record for September 15 with a low on Saturday of 67 degrees.  The warmest low temperature on record for September 15 is 69 degrees set in 1939.

Ashland, Wisconsin

Tied for 3rd warmest low temperature on record for September 15 with a low on Saturday of 62 degrees.  The warmest low temperature on record for September 15 is 69 degrees set in 1920.

Hibbing, Minnesota

4th warmest low temperature on record for September 15 with a low on Saturday of 60 degrees.  The warmest low temperature on record for September 15 is 64 degrees set in 1939.

5th wettest September 15 on record with 0.50 inches of rain on Saturday.  The record wettest September 15 on record is 0.92 inches set in 2004.

International Falls, Minnesota

Tied for 4th warmest low temperature on record for September 15 with a low on Saturday of 56 degrees.  The warmest low temperature on record for September 15 is 66 degrees set in 1911.

4th wettest September 15 on record with 0.40 inches of rain on Saturday.  The record wettest September 15 on record is 1.50 inches set in 2004.

Note:  Both International Falls and Brainerd, Minnesota set new record high temperatures for September 16.  At International Falls, the previous record high was 85 degrees set in 1911, tied in 1922.  At Brainerd, the previous record high was 82 degrees set in 1927, tied in 1968, 1987 and 2015.

Weather Synopsis

An area of low pressure was over southeast Manitoba province late this afternoon with a warm front north of our area and a cold front off to our west -- Warm, gusty southerly winds were found across the area today as we're in the warm sector of this storm system.  Highs today ranged from the low 80s to upper 80s, with Brainerd, Minnesota topping out at 90 degrees on this 16th day of September!  Cooler east winds lingered, however, closer to Lake Superior keeping temps in the 60s and 70s today while low clouds and fog persisted most of the day which was followed by some late day clearing.

[Tonight]

Cold front moves through the Northland tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with a few spotty showers or isolated thunderstorms possible later on.  Lows will range from the 40s in the northwest section of the area, Grand Rapids to International Falls corridor to the 60s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

[Monday]

Cooler and less humid conditions as we finally get rid of the stagnant weather pattern that has been in place during the last 5 days or so.  Cold front shifts south/east of the Northland but a disturbance approaching from the northern Plains will likely lead to some rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday/Monday night mainly over east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Monday in the 50s in northern Minnesota to the 70s around the Hayward lakes area.

[Looking Ahead]

An active weather pattern Tuesday through Thursday with a frontal boundary remaining south of our area while an area of low pressure rides NE along that boundary.  The greatest potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms looks to setup from southern Minnesota to central Wisconsin from Tuesday through Thursday, but some rain is also expected at times in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin during the middle of the week.  It will be cooler Tuesday through Thursday but likely not cold enough for frost due to the expected cloud cover and possible rain.

Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 17

High:  65
Low:   46

Sunrise Monday:  6:49 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   7:16 PM CDT

Tim




Saturday, September 15, 2018

Northland Weather: T-storms in far northern Minnesota tonight; Warmth and humidity returns Sunday, record/near record warmth possible! Storm reports from Friday night-Saturday morning in this post

/Issued 6:43 PM CDT, Saturday, September 15, 2018/

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

18z NAM 12km model.  9-15-2018

Temperature forecast valid for Sunday afternoon.

Note:  Here in Duluth and Superior, will probably start the morning with low clouds, possibly some fog as an easterly wind continues, but a wind shift to the south should take place mid to late Sunday morning, possibly a little later closer to Lake Superior, once the wind shifts to the south, temperatures will warm quickly, and dew points will climb into the mid 60s!
















Source:  https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

















Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 Day Cloud Phase satellite loop for Saturday, September 15, 2018.

Loop time:  2:27 PM to 7:02 PM.

Watch the explosion of thunderstorms late this afternoon in far northern Minnesota as a warm front begins to lift slowly north out of central Minnesota.












Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Radar loop ending at 7:10 PM CDT, Saturday, September 15, 2018.

Scattered thunderstorms, some strong continue to move east-northeast across far northern Minnesota this evening.  Heavy rain, lightning and some hail with these storms tonight.
















Source:  https://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 visible satellite image; Surface analysis from Saturday afternoon (2 PM) Saturday, September 15, 2018.

An impressive warm front was in place today from central Minnesota to northern Wisconsin with temps in the 80s and 90s south of the front and in the 60s north of the front.  Gusty east winds with areas of fog and drizzle occurred near Lake Superior.














Source:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
















Local Storm Reports for Friday-Saturday, September 14-15, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

•2:50 PM:  Heavy Rain -- 3.71 inch.  5 WSW Solon Springs, WI (Douglas County)

•2:50 PM:  Heavy Rain -- 4.17 inch.  1 SSW Solon Springs, WI (Douglas County)

•1:20 PM:  Heavy Rain -- 4.50 inch.  5 N Warba, MN (Itasca County)

•11:57 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 2.30 inch.  2 NNW Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)

•11:34 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 3.00 inch.  2 SE Deerwood, MN (Crow Wing County)

•11:09 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 2.00 inch.  2 NE Nisswa, MN (Crow Wing County)

•10:12 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 2.75 inch.  2 ESE Munger, MN (St. Louis County)

•9:53 AM:  Flash Flood -- Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)  Storm sewer manhole covers were flipped over.  Standing water was also observed in some locations.

•8:33 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.09 inch.  3 WNW Clam Lake, WI (Bayfield County)

•8:30 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 3.28 inch.  5 ENE Island, MN (St. Louis County)

•8:30 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 3.46 inch.  4 E Twig, MN (St. Louis County)

•8:30 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 2.20 inch.  6 NE Hill City, MN (Itasca County)

•8:20 AM:  Hail -- 0.25 inch.  3 N Gordon, WI (Douglas County)

•8:00 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 2.09 inch.  Wrenshall, MN (Carlton County)

•8:00 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.88 inch.  2 SW Bovey, MN (Itasca County)

•7:43 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 2.25 inch.  1 N Cloquet, MN (Carlton County)

•7:36 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.11 inch.  3 NNW Sandstone, MN (Pine County)

•7:30 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 3..39 inch.  2 N Floodwood, MN (St. Louis County)

•7:24 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 5.50 inch.  3 NE Twig, MN (St. Louis County)

•7:02 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 5.52 inch.  Sturgeon Lake, MN (Pine County)

•7:00 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 2.92 inch.  5 SSE Libby, MN (Aitkin County)

•7:00 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.93 inch.  2 N Lester Park, MN (St. Louis County)

•7:00 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.55 inch.  5 NE Cohasset, MN (Itasca County)

•7:00 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.16 inch.  1 NE Babbitt, MN (St. Louis County)

•7:00 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.10 inch.  3 E Cotton, MN (St. Louis County)

•7:00 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.03 inch.  4 WNW Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)

•7:00 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.74 inch.  Duluth, MN (Airport)  St. Louis County

•6:55 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.53 inch.  Superior, WI (Airport)  Douglas County

•6:54 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.75 inch.  1 NNW Gary New Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)

•3:30 AM:  Marine Thunderstorm Wind -- 46 mph.  11 SE Castle Danger, MN.  Ship report.  Paul R. Tregurtha.

•2:30 AM:  Hail -- 0.25 inch.  2 E Esko, MN (Carlton County)

•2:25 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- South Range, WI (Douglas County)  Snapped tree.

•2:11 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 2 N Gary New Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  Multiple trees down along Munger Trail.

•2:06 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 1 NNW Gary New Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  Large pine tree snapped in half.

•2:05 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- Proctor, MN (St. Louis County)  40 foot tree snapped in half.  Multiple smaller trees down in same area.

•2:05 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 1 WSW Proctor, MN (St. Louis County)  Snapped tree landed on garage and an uprooted tree landed in yard.

•2:02 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 2 ENE Thomson, MN (Carlton County)  Tree down partially blocking Palkie Road.

•2:00 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 1 NNE Esko, MN (Carlton County)  Tree down partially blocking Harney Road.

•2:00 AM:  Hail -- 0.25 inch.  1 SW Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)

•1:32 AM:  Hail -- 0.88 inch.  2 SE Fredenberg, MN (St. Louis County)

•12:40 AM:  Non-Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 9 SSE Marcell, MN (Itasca County)  Tree down partially blocking Minnesota Highway 38.

•12:00 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.73 inch.  1 NNW La Prairie, MN (Itasca County)

•9:28 PM (9/14)  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 2 S Glen, MN (Aitkin County)  Tree down across Highway 47 at milemarker 110.

•8:45 PM (9/14)  Hail -- 1.25 inch.  6 ESE Deerwood, MN (Crow Wing County)  Half Dollar sized hail.

•8:32 PM (9/14)  Hail -- 1.25 inch.  1 S Crosby, MN (Crow Wing County)  Half Dollar sized hail.  Hail duration was 10 minutes.

•8:29 PM (9/14)  Hail -- 1.75 inch.  Ironton, MN (Crow Wing County)  Golf Ball sized hail.

•8:12 PM (9/14)  Hail -- 0.70 inch.  3 NNE Merrifield, MN (Crow Wing County)

•8:01 PM (9/14)  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 1 N Merrifield, MN (Crow Wing County)  Birch tree 25 inches in diameter was blown over.

•7:55 PM (9/14)  Hail -- 0.88 inch.  Nisswa, MN (Crow Wing County)

...Climate Data for September 14, 2018...

Ashland, Wisconsin

Warmest low temperature on record for September 14 with a low on Friday of 66 degrees.  The previous warmest low temperature on record for September 14 was 64 degrees set in 1958.

Duluth, Minnesota

Tied with 1877 for warmest low temperature on record for September 14 with a low on Friday of 69 degrees.

Tied with 2009 for 3rd warmest high temperature on record for September 14 with a high on Friday of 80 degrees.  The record high temperature for September 14 is 84 degrees set in 1920.

Brainerd, Minnesota

2nd warmest low temperature on record for September 14 with a low on Friday of 67 degrees.  The warmest low temperature on record for September 14 is 69 degrees set in 1927, tied in 1939.

Hibbing, Minnesota

2nd warmest low temperature on record for September 14 with a low on Friday of 63 degrees.  The warmest low temperature on record for September 14 is 66 degrees set in 1939.

International Falls, Minnesota

Tied with 1920 for 2nd warmest low temperature on record for September 14 with a low on Friday of 58 degrees.  The warmest low temperature on record for September 14 is 60 degrees set in 1969, tied in 1994.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

September 11:  Low of 61 degrees (6th warmest low on record for Sept 11)
September 12:  Low of 66 degrees (Tied with 1931 for warmest low on record for Sept 12)
September 13:  Low of 63 degrees (Tied with 1877 for warmest low on record for Sept 13)
September 14:  Low of 69 degrees (Tied with 1877 for warmest low on record for Sept 14)

An impressive stretch of warmth for mid September in the Twin Ports!

1.74 inches of rain today, September 15, 2018 -- This is the 3rd greatest rainfall on record for September 15.  Record rainfall is 1.99 inches set in 1897.

Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 16

High:  65
Low:   46

Sunrise Sunday:  6:48 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   7:18 PM CDT

Tim