Monday, July 16, 2018

Nice weather continues through Wednesday; Rain chances Thursday-Friday with cooler temperatures. 60-day Northland rainfall totals in this post, some locations have picked up over 16" of rain since mid May

/Issued 7:35 PM CDT, Monday, July 16, 2018/


Total Rainfall Map for the 60-day period from May 17 to July 16, 2018

Rainfall totals have been well above average in most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin since mid May, but the extreme northeast portion of Minnesota around the Grand Marais and Grand Portage areas have had a lot less rain since mid May with totals of roughly around 6 inches or so, while other locations in our area have picked up over a foot of rain, with some spots picking up 20 inches or more of rain since mid May!  

Note:  Rain totals in the Twin Ports since May 16 have ranged from a little less than 10 inches at the Duluth Airport to over 13 inches in Superior (Airport location)

















Total Precipitation Anomaly Map from May 17 through July 16, 2018.

















Still noticing some differences between the Euro and GFS models for the late week rain system, both models show at least some rain for Duluth and points north, but the amounts are different with the Euro forecasting lighter rainfall amounts while the GFS has heavier rain totals farther north including in the Twin Ports and Iron Range.  Note:  Timing of this rain looks to be from Thursday afternoon through Friday but this could change, and the area of heaviest rainfall may also shift a bit in coming days, stay tuned.

































Most of the U.S. has had a warm first half of July with above normal temperatures over a large portion of the country.

















Northland Rainfall Totals from May 17 to July 16, 2018

3 S Ashland, WI:  17.08 inch
3 E Orr, MN:  14.90 inch
Ashland, WI:  14.64 inch
4 E Island Lake, MN:  14.16 inch
7 NW Two Harbors, MN:  13.64 inch
Superior, WI:  13.48 inch
Brainerd, MN:  9.85 inch
Duluth Airport:  9.59 inch
International Falls, MN:  9.37 inch
Cass Lake, MN:  9.18 inch
Grand Marais, MN:  6.58 inch
Grand Portage, MN:  5.28 inch

July 1 through 15, 2018 Climate Stats for Duluth, Minnesota

Average Temperature:  71.6 degrees
Departure:  +6.3 degrees above normal

12 days with a high temperature of at least 80 F

Total Rainfall:  3.11 inches
Departure:  +1.07 inches above normal

5 days with thunder

Weather Synopsis

A breezy and less humid day across our area with a mix of sun and clouds.  Highs ranged from the mid 60s to around 70 degrees in far northern Minnesota to the 70s and lower 80s elsewhere.  West or northwest winds gusted to 25 to around 40 mph today.

Quiet weather continues through mid week as high pressure over Manitoba province heads southeast through the upper Midwest on Tuesday, this high will then move toward the southern Great Lakes on Wednesday.

Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected through Wednesday.  Lows tonight in the 40s and 50s, highs Tuesday in the 70s with 60s near Lake Superior.  Highs Wednesday in the 70s to lower 80s with winds turning southwest which will boost our high temps by a few degrees.

Rain chances for late this week, mainly from Thursday afternoon through Friday but scattered rain showers could linger into the weekend, especially on Saturday.  Still seeing some differences in the computer models with the amount of rain that falls in our area, but it does look like the majority of the Northland will get at least some rain late this week, whether or not it's heavy rain or just light rain is uncertain at the moment.

Note:  One sunset pic and a couple of sunrise pictures I've taken the last few days.  Sunrise pics were taken from Park Point in Duluth, Minnesota (Lake Superior)  Sunset picture taken just a little south of Duluth, Minnesota.  Enjoy! 





























































Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 70 to 75.  Wind east around 12 mph.

.Wednesday...  Mostly sunny.  High 75 to 80.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal Temperatures for July 17

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:32 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:58 PM CDT

Tim







Sunday, July 15, 2018

Nice weather for the next few days, mild temps and less humid! Some rain is possible late this week (July 19-20)

/Issued 3:44 PM CDT, Sunday, July 15, 2018/

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European model (7.15.2018)

Update -- Although the Euro is a dry solution for Duluth, its ensemble model hot off the presses is much wetter late this week with rain totals of a half inch or more in the Twin Ports between Thursday and Saturday morning so there is uncertainty showing up in the model guidance with this late week system.
















Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z GEFS model (7.15.2018)

North America 500mb height forecast valid through July 31, 2018 -- Generally speaking it looks like the upper Midwest will be in a northwest flow aloft for the rest of this month which should lead to temperatures that are closer to average with a few days likely featuring below average temps and a few others with above average temps, but the core of the intense heat or prolonged heat should be focused over the western-southwest U.S., near the 5940+ upper level ridge.













Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European model (7.15.2018)

850mb Temperature Forecast valid through July 25, 2018.  Note the blue and darker blue colors dropping farther S-SE out of northern Canada toward the end of this forecast period, will have to keep an eye on this pool of chilly temperatures as it could dip south of the Canadian border toward the end of this month.
















Source:  https://hprcc.unl.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of July 8, 2018 -- Above average temperatures last week throughout the Northland with the greatest departures from average in the red colors on the map.  Note:  Duluth was nearly 8 degrees warmer than normal last week, wow!
















Source:  https://hprcc.unl.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of July 8, 2018 -- Very wet last week especially in the blue and purple colors on the map, those areas saw precipitation totals that were 1 to 3 inches above the average last week.  A few areas in the Northland were much drier with precip totals that were below average last week (Yellow color on map)
















Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

19 days so far this summer (Since June 1) with a high temperature of at least 80 F.  Average number of days during the summer (June 1 to August 31) with a high of at least 80 F is 23.  Note:  Summer of 2017 had 17 days with a high of at least 80 F, so we've already had more 80 degree days this summer compared to all of last summer and we're only in mid July!

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

July 8 through 14, 2018

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

7/8:  89 F/+13 degrees above normal
7/9:  85 F/+9 degrees above normal
7/10:  82 F/+6 degrees above normal
7/11:  74 F/-2 degrees below normal
7/12:  84 F/+8 degrees above normal
7/13:  86 F/+9 degrees above normal
7/14:  89 F/+12 degrees above normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

7/8:  68 F/+13 degrees above normal
7/9:  64 F/+9 degrees above normal
7/10:  56 F/+1 degree above normal
7/11:  60 F/+5 degrees above normal
7/12:  63 F/+8 degrees above normal
7/13:  65 F/+9 degrees above normal
7/14:  64 F/+8 degrees above normal

Note:  Average temperature for the week of July 8:  73.5 degrees (+7.7 degrees above normal)  Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total Precipitation:  1.36 inches
Normal:  0.89 inches
Departure:  +0.47 inches above normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of July 8, 2018
Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  75.1 degrees
Departure:  +4.9 degrees above normal

Precipitation:  1.52 inches
Departure:  +0.64 inches above normal

Weather Synopsis

The warm and muggy conditions as of late will be going away at least for a little while.  A cold front was moving through the Northland today with clouds along with a few scattered showers.  This first front exits to the south/east early this evening, but a secondary cold front will pass through our area Monday morning and it's behind this front when the much less humid conditions will arrive.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight with isolated showers possible early.  Lows in the 50s to lower 60s.  Mostly sunny for Monday with highs ranging from around 70 to 80 degrees with the warmest temps in southern portions of the area.

Tuesday and Wednesday look pretty nice with high pressure in control -- Highs mainly in the 70s Tuesday, and in the 70s to lower 80s Wednesday.

Note:  Rain chances increase late this week, mainly for Thursday and Friday the way it looks now, but there is still time for this change.

Normal Temperatures for Duluth for July 16

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Monday:  5:31 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:58 PM CDT

Tim

Thursday, July 12, 2018

Warm and dry Friday-Saturday, highs in the 80s! A few showers/t-storms possible Sunday. Storm reports from this morning in this post

/Issued 6:15 PM CDT, Thursday, July 12, 2018/

Summer of 2018 will be remembered as the summer that produced multiple flood events in the  Northland, and we're only going into mid July! Still lots of summer left.

































Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

One-minute Goes16 visible satellite loop from 3:54 PM to 5:35 PM, Thursday, July 12, 2018.  Watch thunderstorms explode late this afternoon over southern and eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, cloud tops of 50,000 to nearly 60,000 feet with these storms!













Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z GEFS model (7.12.2018)

500mb height anomaly forecast valid through July 28, 2018 -- Will start with a westerly flow aloft but transition to more of a northwest flow aloft across the upper Midwest by next week and beyond, this will likely lead to temperatures that are near or below average from mid to late month.  Core of the heat will be over the southwest U.S. as persistent ridging continues in that area through at least the next two weeks.














Northland Storm Reports for July 12, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

2:14 PM:  Heavy Rain -- 3.05 inch.  Stone Lake, WI (Washburn County)

12:30 PM:  Heavy Rain -- 4.50 inch.  3 SW Pine River, MN (Cass County)  Reported in Walden Township.

11:10 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 4.04 inch.  2 SW Hinckley, MN (Pine County)

10:40 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.96 inch.  1 N Lake Shore, MN (Cass County)

10:26 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 4.20 inch.  2 SW Hinckley, MN (Pine County)

10:24 AM:  Flash Flood -- Rock Creek, MN (Pine County)  Water over roads in Rock Creek area.

10:21 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 3.75 inch.  Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)

10:17 AM:  Flash Flood -- Henriette, MN (Pine County)  Homes are flooded in the Henriette city limits.  Many roads are water-covered in the Henriette and Brook Park areas.

10:12 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 2.60 inch.  7 SE Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)

9:59 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.51 inch.  2 N Floodwood, MN (St. Louis County)

9:24 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 3.96 inch.  6 SW Finlayson, MN (Pine County)

9:22 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 4.50 inch.  5 N Grantsburg, WI (Burnett County)

9:15 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 4.50 inch.  10 E Pine City, MN (Pine County)

9:00 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 5.50 inch.  Pine City, MN (Pine County)  The rain gauge overflowed at 5.5 inches, so more could have fallen but went unmeasured.

8:41 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.56 inch.  Swan River, MN (Itasca County)

8:39 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 2.60 inch.  3 SSW Bruno, MN (Pine County)

8:36 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.83 inch.  2 E Celina, MN (St. Louis County)

8:35 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 2.90 inch.  Kettle River, MN (Carlton County)

8:30 AM:  Flash Flood -- McGrath, MN (Aitkin County)  Water over roads from Hill City to McGrath.  Some small side roads washed out.  Water over Highway 18 in southern Aitkin County.

8:20 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 5.00 inch.  5 NW Tower, MN (St. Louis County)

8:09 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 2.13 inch.  3 NE Nisswa, MN (Crow Wing County)

7:53 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 4.86 inch.  1 SE Malmo, MN (Aitkin County)

6:45 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 4.90 inch.  6 WNW McGrath, MN (Aitkin County)

5:26 AM:  Lightning -- 2 W Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  It is believed lightning struck a church in the Piedmont neighborhood of Duluth which started a fire in the roof, causing damage to the roof and cupola.

5:25 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 2.31 inch.  1 E Ironton, MN (Crow Wing County)

2:45 AM:  Flash Flood -- Pequot Lakes, MN (Crow Wing County)  Several streets under water in Pequot Lakes.

2:38 AM:  Hail -- 0.25 inch.  Pequot Lakes, MN (Crow Wing County)

2:11 AM:  Flash Flood -- Hill City, MN (Aitkin County)  Significant flooding reported at the Intersection of State Highway 200 and Highway 169 in Hill City.

1:45 AM:  Flash Flood -- 5 ENE Cook, MN (St. Louis County)  Beatty road washed out.

Additional Rainfall Reports for July 11-12, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Cook, MN:  4.92 inch
2 S Tower, MN:  3.09 inch
3 E Orr, MN:  2.65 inch
4 S Bruno, MN:  2.60 inch
3 E Wright, MN:  1.65 inch
Brainerd, MN:  1.56 inch
Cass Lake, MN:  1.15 inch
International Falls, MN:  0.92 inch
Babbitt, MN:  0.90 inch
Grand Marais, MN:  0.63 inch
Duluth, MN:  0.40 inch
25 E Ely, MN:  0.34 inch
Hibbing, MN:  0.31 inch
Winter, WI:  0.27 inch
4 W Clam Lake, WI:  0.24 inch
Ashland, WI:  0.21 inch
Hayward, WI:  0.20 inch

Note:  5th wettest July 11 on record at International Falls, Minnesota with 0.92 inches of rain on Wednesday.  The wettest July 11 on record is 2.04 inches set in 2008.

Note:  4th warmest low temperature on record for July 11 at Brainerd, Minnesota.  Low on Wednesday was 69 degrees.  Warmest low on record for July 11 is 74 degrees set in 1936.

Weather Synopsis

A wild early morning in parts of the area as strong to severe thunderstorms moved south/east bringing torrential rainfall rates which led to flash flooding -- The hardest hit area, well two areas actually...The first was over a portion of far northern Minnesota around the Cook area, the other more widespread area impacted southwest portions of the Northland around the Brainerd Lakes to Aitkin, Hinckley, Mille Lacs Lake and Mora areas.  Rainfall totals of 2 to around 5 inches fell in a short period of time which led to flash flooding.  Thunderstorms earlier today also produced tremendous amounts of lightning, with at least one lightning strike starting a church on fire just after 5 AM today in the Piedmont neighborhood of Duluth.

Late this afternoon finds a cold front draped from southern Minnesota to north central Wisconsin with severe thunderstorms firing up near this boundary as of 5 PM.  Farther north in our area skies which were overcast earlier in the day turned partly to mostly sunny this afternoon.  Highs today ranging from around 80 to the middle 80s with dew points in the lower 70s in northwest Wisconsin with 50s in parts of northern Minnesota.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies for tonight with a risk for a few showers or thunderstorms mainly in southern portions of the Northland.  Lows will be in the mid 50s to upper 60s.

Friday and Saturday look mainly dry in our area with some sun expected both days.  Highs in the 80s, with dew points in the mid 50s to mid 60s, so still a touch muggy but not terribly muggy.

High pressure moves east out of the northern Plains tonight, passes over the upper Midwest Friday before moving off to the south/east on Saturday.  Behind this high will be the next cold front which is set to move through the area late this weekend with isolated to scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms possible on Sunday the way it looks now.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy.  Low 62 to 67.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday...  Partly cloudy.  High 82 to 87.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 82 to 87.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal Temperatures for July 13

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Friday:  5:28 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   9:01 PM CDT

Tim







Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Flash Flood Watch and Tornado Watch in effect for parts of the Northland -- Strong to severe t-storms, heavy rain and flooding possible tonight -- Stay Weather Aware! Very muggy and warm Thursday, risk for a few more showers/t-storms

/Issued 6:18 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 11, 2018/











Tonight's severe weather outlook -- All modes of severe weather possible tonight including a risk for a few tornadoes especially in portions of north central Minnesota from around International Falls to Bigfork and Grand Rapids to Cass Lake, Walker and Brainerd.











Source:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov/


























Increased risk of flash flooding tonight in parts of the Northland with a moderate risk and slight risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding -- Technical Discussion from the Weather Prediction Center at this link http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1












Thursday's severe weather outlook -- Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over parts of northwest Wisconsin and east central Minnesota.











Feeling like the amazon over a large part of Minnesota this afternoon with widespread 70 to 75 degree dew points, even a few locations into the upper 70s and lower 80s!  Lower dew points due to the cooler temps around Lake Superior today, but dew points jump to around 70 or so on Thursday even near Lake Superior!





















































Weather Synopsis

Potential is there for a rough night across the Northland -- The setup late this afternoon features a cold front over the eastern Dakotas and a warm front over central Minnesota.  The warm front lifts NE tonight while the cold front heads E.  Very moist and unstable airmass covered the upper Midwest this afternoon with dew points in the 70s and PWATS of 1.80 to 2.10 inches (Record or near record moisture levels for this time of the year!)  As for the instability, that too is quite impressive with meso-analysis showing anywhere from 1000 to 5000 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) with the highest values in west central Minnesota.  SW Low level jet is ramping up late this afternoon, at 6 PM its in the 30 to 40 knot range, and this continues to advect deeper moisture and instability into the Northland.

The cap or warmer air aloft is keeping a lid on convective development thus far with 700mb temps of +12C over the western half of Minnesota with MLCIN of 25 to 100 J/kg over the Northland with little or no CIN remaining farther west where temperatures are considerably warmer, thus the cap has been weakening late this afternoon.

We should see showers and thunderstorms develop and expand in coverage over north central Minnesota this evening, these storms will then track south/east overnight into Thursday morning.  Locations that get hit multiple times tonight will have a greater chance for flash flooding.

Note:  Some model runs throughout the day have looked scary with potential rainfall amounts of 4 to 10"+ in portions of the Northland, however, each new model run has shifted the axis of heaviest rainfall so there is still uncertainty in regards to what part of our area gets hit the hardest later tonight.

As for severe weather:  Some of the storms could contain damaging winds and or large hail tonight.  Wind gusts of 60 to 75 mph are possible with hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter (Quarter sized to slightly larger than Golf Ball sized)  The risk is greatest in parts of north central into east central Minnesota but certainly can't be ruled out anywhere in the Northland.

There is also a chance for a few tornadoes tonight over north central Minnesota with 30 to 45 knots of shear along with veering winds with height coupled with 25-35 knots of 1km Shear, and Storm Relative Helicity values of 300 to 400 m2/s2 -- Favorable parameters in place for a few rotating supercells and tornado genesis tonight from the Brainerd Lakes north toward Grand Rapids and International Falls.

Thursday:  Looks warm and muggy but may not be all that sunny thanks to the cold front which will continue to move slowly south/east out of north central Minnesota.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday mainly in east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin with a few strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall possible.  Highs Thursday mainly in the 80s with dew points in the mid 60s to mid 70s, but lowering dews/drier air pushes south out of northern Minnesota later in the day or Thursday evening behind the cold frontal boundary.

Tim







Tuesday, July 10, 2018

A few showers/t-storms possible Wed AM (Highs Wed in the 60s North Shore and South Shore, much warmer inland) Strong to severe t-storms, heavy rain and flooding possible Wed night. 80s and muggy Thursday!

/Issued 4:32 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 10, 2018/

After a break brief from the stormy weather, the threat for thunderstorms returns to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday with a risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms especially Wednesday night.  Stay Weather Aware!


























3km NAM (18z run, 7.10.2018)  

Simulated Radar Forecast valid from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday.  This model does show a few showers and thunderstorms developing while passing through parts of the Northland Wednesday morning with additional thunderstorms developing Wednesday evening and spreading south/east through the night.

















Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Tuesday, July 10, 2018 (Loop time, ~10 AM to ~4 PM)

Disturbance which brought clouds and some rain showers to parts of Minnesota this morning has exited to the southeast this afternoon with quite a bit of sunshine developing this afternoon in the Northland.












Weather Synopsis

Quiet weather for this evening under clear to partly cloudy skies.  

Late tonight into Wednesday morning could feature isolated to scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Northland as a warm front approaches from the W-SW, ahead of this boundary a low level jet increases to 25-35 knots which will pump warm and moist air into our area along with an increase in elevated instability -- Severe weather isn't expected early Wednesday morning, but heavy downpours and some lightning will likely occur with these storms, and perhaps some small hail if storms become strong enough.

Late Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon looks mainly dry at the moment with thunderstorms redeveloping over the area Wednesday evening and continuing into Thursday morning -- Storms Wednesday night could become strong to severe with about 30 to 40 knots of deep layer wind shear, low level jet of 30 to around 45 knots and CAPE of 1000 to around 3000 J/kg.  In addition, 0-1 KM Helicity is forecast to be in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range which could help develop a few rotating supercells and perhaps an isolated tornado risk especially in western portions of the Northland Wednesday evening.  PWATS from 1.75 to 2.25 inches will also be in place Wednesday night which will lead to heavy rainfall rates and possible flooding once again over parts of the area.

A warm front and cold front will be moving through the upper Midwest Wednesday and Wednesday night which will lead to this next round of storms -- The cold front is forecast to extend from south central Minnesota to northern Wisconsin Thursday afternoon with more thunderstorms possible on Thursday mainly over parts of northwest Wisconsin and down into southern Minnesota.

Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s to around 70 degrees, warmest temps in western areas (Brainerd Lakes to International Falls)  Highs Wednesday will range from the 60s near Lake Superior with 70s and 80s elsewhere, shot at 90 degrees in the Brainerd area.  Dew points Wednesday afternoon will climb into the 60s to lower 70s although lower dew points will be found near Lake Superior due to the cooler temps.

Thursday looks like a warm one with highs mainly in the 80s.  Still humid as well for most of the day with dew points in the mid 60s to mid 70s although it will be turning less humid in northern Minnesota, and this drier air/lower dew points will move farther south/east later in the day Thursday.

Tim

Monday, July 9, 2018

Beautiful tonight; Isolated showers possible Tuesday; Scattered showers/t-storms early Wed AM; Potential for heavy rain, flooding and strong to severe t-storms Wed night-early Thu AM

/Issued 4:27 PM CDT, Monday, July 9, 2018/

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov















Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms returns to the Northland on Wednesday, especially for Wednesday night-early Thursday morning the way it looks now.  Could see a bow echo of some sort move south/east out of Ontario Province or northwest Minnesota late Wednesday night with a threat for damaging winds and hail in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.












Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

3km NAM (18z run from 7.9.2018) 

Simulated Radar forecast from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday.

This model does show a few spotty showers affecting parts of the Northland Tuesday, then perhaps some stronger storms for early Wednesday morning.
















Source:  https://lab.weathermodels.com
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Monday afternoon, July 9, 2018 (Ending around 4 PM)

Patchy fair weather cumulus clouds along with a batch of generally high level clouds passing through southern portions of the Northland this afternoon while skies are mainly sunny in northern Minnesota.  Also note the brownish color over southern Lake Superior, that's sediment left behind from the mid June flood event, yes it's still there weeks later!














Here are some pictures I've taken over the last week or so, enjoy!

Highway 23 overlook, south of Fond du Lac, Minnesota.
















St. Louis River, Fond du Lac, Minnesota.
















Lake Superior, Park Point beach, sunrise.  Crepuscular Rays
















Lake Superior, Park Point beach, sunrise.  Cumulonimbus clouds north of Duluth, Minnesota.
















Lake Superior, Park Point beach, sunrise.  Crepuscular Rays
















Local Storm Reports for July 8, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

•8:30 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 5 NE Cook, MN (St. Louis County)  Numerous large trees down and power out at a church camp on the western shore of Lake Vermilion.

•7:58 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 3.25 inch.  1 NW Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  Total rainfall from Sunday's storms.

•11:15 PM:  Heavy Rain -- 3.65 inch.  1 N Knife River, MN (Lake County)

•9:39 PM:  Heavy Rain -- 3.56 inch.  2 WNW Palmers, MN (St. Louis County)

•9:30 PM:  Heavy Rain -- 3.50 inch.  Hill City, MN (Aitkin County)

•9:21 PM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.27 inch.  5 NW Sand Bay, WI (Bayfield County)

•9:19 PM:  Hail -- 0.25 inch.  Motley, MN (Cass County)

•9:07 PM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.88 inch.  1 S Hill City, MN (Aitkin County)

•8:50 PM:  Heavy Rain -- 3.00 inch.  Canyon, MN (St. Louis County)

•8:45 PM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.13 inch.  Floodwood, MN (St. Louis County)

•8:30 PM:  Heavy Rain -- 2.32 inch.  3 N Shaw, MN (St. Louis County)

•7:54 PM:  Heavy Rain -- 2.20 inch.  3 W Cotton, MN (St. Louis County)

•7:35 PM:  Hail -- 0.75 inch.  3 SW Backus, MN (Cass County)

•7:35 PM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 3 SW Backus, MN (Cass County)  Multiple trees downed.  A 12 inch diameter tree is laying over State Highway 87.

•7:11 PM:  Hail -- 0.75 inch.  3 N Hill City, MN (Aitkin County)

•7:10 PM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- Hill City, MN (Aitkin County)  Tree knocked down.

•7:10 PM:  Hail -- 0.25 inch.  8 NNE Hill City, MN (Itasca County)

•7:06 PM:  Marine Thunderstorm Wind -- 39 mph.  2 SE Bayfield, WI (Ashland County)

•6:53 PM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)  A few trees downed in Grand Rapids.

•6:20 PM:  Hail -- 1.75 inch.  5 ENE Boy River, MN (Cass County)  Golf Ball sized hail.

•5:53 PM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- Knife River, MN (St. Louis County)  Trees knocked down onto power lines in Knife River.

•5:44 PM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 4 WNW Knife River, MN (St. Louis County)  Tree knocked down on Lester River Road.

•5:43 PM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 2 N Two Harbors, MN (Lake County)  Trees knocked down on power lines along Highway 2.

Additional Rainfall Reports from Sunday, July 8, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

3 E Orr, MN:  2.36 in
4 E Island Lake, MN:  2.28 in
8.8 N Bayfield, WI:  2.19 in
25 E Ely, MN:  1.10 in
Brimson, MN:  1.01 in
Duluth Airport:  0.96 in
2 E Celina, MN:  0.74 in
Brainerd, MN:  0.72 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.71 in
Wolfridge, MN:  0.63 in
Cook, MN:  0.56 in
Cass Lake, MN:  0.51 in
Northome, MN:  0.46 in
12 N Grand Rapids, MN:  0.35 in
3 E Wright, MN:  0.34 in
Hibbing, MN:  0.33 in
4 S Bruno, MN:  0.20 in

July 8 Climate Stats

Ashland, Wisconsin

Record warmest low temperature tied for July 8 with a low on Sunday of 68 degrees, this ties with July 8, 1936 and July 8, 1929 for warmest low temperature on record.

Hibbing, Minnesota

Record warmest low temperature tied for July 8 with a low on Sunday of 67 degrees, this ties with July 8, 1974 and July 8, 1943 for warmest low temperature on record.

Duluth, Minnesota

4th warmest low temperature on record for July 8 with a low on Sunday of 68 degrees.  Record warmest low on record for July 8 is 77 degrees set in 1936.

5th warmest high temperature on record for July 8 with a high on Sunday of 89 degrees.  Record high for July 8 is 98 degrees set in 1936.

Brainerd, Minnesota

4th warmest low temperature on record for July 8 with a low on Sunday of 70 degrees.  Record warmest low for July 8 is 77 degrees set in 1936.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

-It's been a warm July so far with 7 out of the first 9 days of the month having a high temperature of at least 80 degrees -- The average number of 80 degree days for the month of July is 11.

-The average monthly temperature for July (thru the 8th)  70.6 degrees, +5.9 degrees warmer than average.

-The first 8 days of July 2018 is running nearly 5 degrees warmer compared to the first 8 days of July 2017.

Weather Synopsis

A much more comfortable day with much drier air over our area compared to Sunday's steam bath.  Dew point temperatures this afternoon ranged from the upper 40s to around 60 degrees, this is 10 to 20 degrees lower compared to Sunday afternoon.

Partly sunny to sunny skies prevailed today with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

A nice night ahead under clear to partly cloudy skies, lows ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s.

Could see a few showers pass through parts of the Northland Tuesday thanks to some Frontogenesis in the 700-850mb layer that will move through the area along with some energy which moves east/southeast out of North Dakota -- Any showers that develop shouldn't last long and I'm not expecting any heavy downpours.  Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies Tuesday with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

Southerly flow develops Tuesday night ahead of a warm front which moves closer to western Minnesota.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the Northland late Tuesday night, lingering into Wednesday morning.  Not expecting any severe weather Tuesday night or Wednesday morning but some heavy downpours could occur.

Note:  The risk for strong to severe thunderstorms increases a bit for Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as a cold front sweeps through the Northland.  Deep moisture will also be in place ahead of this front, so the potential for heavy rain and some flooding exists as well.  Stay tuned!

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers or sprinkles possible.  High 73 to 78.  Wind east 7 to 13 mph.

.Wednesday...  Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible early in the day, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.  High 71 to 76 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal Temperatures for July 10

High:  76
Low:   55

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:25 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   9:03 PM CDT

Tim









Sunday, July 8, 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for parts of the Northland until 11 PM this evening, and a Flash Flood Watch in effect through Monday morning. Scattered strong to severe t-storms tonight, heavy rain and possible flooding

/Issued 4:10 PM CDT, Sunday, July 8, 2018/

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM this Sunday evening (Blue shaded area on map)

Primary Threats include:

•Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible (Quarter sized to Hen Egg sized)

•Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

•A tornado or two possible.











Flash Flood Watch remains in effect this evening through Monday morning for parts of the Northland (Green shaded area on map)











Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

HRRR model (20z run)  Simulated Radar Forecast through 1 AM Monday morning -- Looks like the greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur this evening, chances diminish from NW to SE by late evening or early Monday morning.



























































Source:  https://hprcc.unl.edu

Temperature Departure map for the week of July 1, 2018:  Majority of the Northland had above average temperatures last week, the exception was in extreme northeast Minnesota (Green color on map) as that area had below average temps last week.
















Source:  https://hprcc.unl.edu

Precipitation Departure map for the week of July 1, 2018:  Most locations in the Northland had above average precipitation totals last week.
















Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

July 1 through 7, 2018

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

7/1:  69 F/-6 degrees below normal
7/2:  83 F/+8 degrees above normal
7/3:  80 F/+5 degrees above normal
7/4:  80 F/+5 degrees above normal
7/5:  78 F/+2 degrees above normal
7/6:  81 F/+5 degrees above normal
7/7:  84 F/+8 degrees above normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

7/1:  59 F/+5 degrees above normal
7/2:  57 F/+3 degrees above normal
7/3:  66 F/+12 degrees above normal
7/4:  64 F/+10 degrees above normal
7/5:  56 F/+2 degrees above normal
7/6:  53 F/-2 degrees below normal
7/7:  63 F/+8 degrees above normal

Note:  Average temperature for the week of July 1:  69.5 degrees (+4.7 degrees above normal)  Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total Precipitation:  1.75 inches
Normal:  1.03 inches
Departure:  +0.72 inches above normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of July 1, 2018
Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  71.5 degrees
Departure:  +1.8 degrees above normal

Precipitation:  1.65 inches
Departure:  +0.72 inches above normal

Local Storm Reports for July 8, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

8:02 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Gust -- 47 mph.  Northome, MN (Koochiching County)

8:05 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Gust -- 45 mph.  3 ENE Margie, MN (Koochiching County)

8:06 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 1 NNW Big Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  Flagpole down, large trees topped and branches everywhere.  Pea sized hail was also reported.

8:11 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 6 NE Gemmell, MN (Koochiching County)  Multiple trees down.

8:15 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 7 WNW Effie, MN (Koochiching County)  Trees down.

8:15 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 1 SSW Grand Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  2 trees fell across across road.  Trees fell on power lines.

8:57 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Gust -- 46 mph.  Orr, MN (St. Louis County)

9:00 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 1 W Gheen, MN (St. Louis County)  Multiple large trees down.

9:00 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Damage -- 2 SSW Orr, MN (St. Louis County)  Dozens of trees down on power lines.

9:07 AM:  Thunderstorm Wind Gust -- 45 mph.  2 NNE Bigfork, MN (Itasca County)

10:00 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.15 inch.  13 SSE Littlefork, MN (Koochiching County)

10:04 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.33 inch.  16 E Buyck, MN (St. Louis County)

10:08 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.82 inch.  3 SW Orr, MN (St. Louis County)

10:20 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 2.33 inch.  3 ESE Orr, MN (St. Louis County)

10:30 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 2.05 inch.  Big Falls, MN (Koochiching County)

10:30 AM:  Heavy Rain -- 1.15 inch.  3 W Crane Lake, MN (St. Louis County)

Weather Synopsis

We had one round of thunderstorms move through far northern Minnesota this morning, some of those storms were severe with reports of wind damage, storms also produced torrential rainfall with a quick 1 to around 3 inches of rain this morning.

Skies this afternoon were mostly cloudy to mostly sunny depending on your location.  Another very warm and muggy day with temperatures this afternoon in the mid 80s to 90 degrees along and south of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota, including all of northwest Wisconsin, with locations north of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota having temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.  Dew point temperatures at 3 PM ranged from 66 to 73 degrees (Very juicy out there!)

Tonight:  A cold front stretched from eastern South Dakota into northern Minnesota as of 4 PM today with good surface and moisture convergence occurring near this boundary this afternoon.  Near and ahead of the front a SW low level jet to 35 knots has developed which continues to advect even more moisture into the Northland.  The atmosphere has become rather unstable this afternoon with CAPE from 1000 to around 3000 J/kg, highest values over western portions of the area.  The air is still somewhat capped late this afternoon as seen in the MLCIN values, but those have fallen to around 25 J/kg, so the cap is starting to weaken.  We have seen a few areas of showers and thunderstorms develop late this afternoon north of Highway 2 in northern Minnesota, none of the storms were severe as of 4 PM.

Thunderstorm intensity should increase by 7 PM with scattered strong to severe thunderstorms expected to impact parts of Northland with storm movement toward the east/southeast.  There is 30 to 40 knots of wind shear over our area this evening along with storm relative helicity values of up to 200 m2/s2 -- Favorable ingredients in place for stronger storms, perhaps even an isolated supercell early this evening.

The other hazard out of the storms tonight will be from torrential downpours with PWATS of 1.50 to 2.00 inches which will result in heavy rainfall rates, but hopefully storms won't sit in one area for very long, but if they do, then the potential for flash flooding would increase this evening.

Nicer weather returns on Monday as tonight's cold front pushes off to the south/east while high pressure moves southeast out of Manitoba Province.  Still a little humid early in the day but dew point temperatures will fall by the afternoon, we're looking at highs Monday afternoon in the low to mid 80s with a north/northwest breeze.

Stay Weather Aware tonight!

Tim