Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Warm through next week (Cooler at times near Lake Superior) Tropical feel Thursday and Friday, dew points 60s to around 70 F! Highs in the 90s in parts of Minnesota May 24-30! Risk for scattered t-storms Wed night-Fri

/Issued 5:39 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM from May 22, 2018















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

20z HRRR model

Late tonight a cluster of showers and thunderstorms with potential for heavy rainfall develops and affects parts of west central through southeastern Minnesota -- This activity should remain south of the Northland.















Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

18z 3km NAM from May 22, 2018















There is a risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday roughly west of a line from Ely to Moose Lake.













Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z GEFS model from May 22, 2018

Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid through June 7, 2018 -- Looks like the warmer than average temperatures will be sticking around across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes through the end of this month, and perhaps through the first week of June, although we lose the deeper red and pink colors on the map toward the end of the forecast loop which means the warmest temperatures (Greatest departures from average) are expected through next week.  Note:  The Euro Ensemble model shows a cooler airmass setting up the first few days of June so the computer models are in disagreement after the middle of next week.














Weather Synopsis

A mild day with mostly cloudy skies earlier in the day with even some lingering areas of drizzle in parts of the Northland, but this afternoon saw more sun with scattered fair weather cumulus clouds.  High temperatures ranged from the low 70s to low 80s with International Falls the warm spot in the Northland at 4 PM with a temperature of 81 degrees!  Slightly cooler close to Lake Superior today with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Partly cloudy skies tonight with lows in the lower 40s to middle 50s; Wednesday will be another nice day with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s although it will be cooler closer to Lake Superior especially during the afternoon as a lake breeze develops.

A more humid and unstable airmass will push SW-NE into the Northland Wednesday night and will remain over our area through Friday -- A warm front will lift northeast out of the northern Plains on Thursday which will be followed by a cold front on Friday.  We should see some showers and thunderstorms develop at times in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin beginning late Wednesday night, lingering into Thursday morning, followed by potentially another round or two of scattered storms for Thursday afternoon and again Friday.

The potential for severe weather still looks pretty low, but a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible especially Thursday when instability and moisture is maximized with steeper mid level lapse rates advecting into the Northland.  Winds aloft and wind shear still look weak and this should prevent a bigger severe weather threat from happening in our area.

Note:  A late spring heat wave is forecast to setup across the northern Plains and upper Midwest from Thursday through the middle of next week, or from May 24 through 30.  Daytime highs are expected to reach well into the 80s with even some 90s in Minnesota and western Wisconsin during the aforementioned time period -- It will be cooler though near Lake Superior on some of those days, or whenever the wind direction is out of the east.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 49 to 54.  Wind light and variable around 10 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 77 to 82 but turning cooler near Lake Superior especially during the afternoon.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday...  More humid.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the morning and again later in the afternoon.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal Temperatures for May 23

High:  64
Low:   43

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:25 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:46 PM CDT

Tim



Monday, May 21, 2018

Scattered rain drops this evening; 70s and dry Tuesday; More humid mid to late week (60+ dew points) Risk for scattered showers/t-storms Wed night-Sat.

/Issued 5:30 PM CDT, Monday, May 21, 2018/

Source:  http://weather.rap.ucar.edu



















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Monday, May 21, 2018 -- A nice looking system passing through the upper Midwest today but the bark is worse than the bite, very little moisture in place, so we're just seeing some patchy light showers or drizzle today in central/southern Minnesota.












Source:  https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov
















Source:  https://weathermodels.com

Data from the European Computer Model -- 12z run from May 21, 2018

The Minnesota Modified Nationals race takes place this weekend, Saturday and Sunday, May 26-27 at the Ogilvie Raceway in Ogilvie, Minnesota.  Right now the weather looks good with warm daytime highs in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows around 60 to 65 degrees.  Could be a few showers and thunderstorms around the area especially on Saturday the way it looks now, but coverage looks isolated to scattered at best meaning not everyone will get hit/wet.



















Weather Synopsis

Goes-16 visible satellite imagery shows more sun up north and more clouds farther south this afternoon, and this is also seen in temperatures this afternoon which range from the middle 70s in northern Minnesota or north of Highway 2 with cooler temperatures ranging from about 60 to 70 degrees south of Highway 2 in east central Minnesota and over all of northwest Wisconsin -- A light lake breeze closer to Lake Superior kept temperatures in the 50s and 60s today.

A few showers or sprinkles will remain possible tonight mainly for east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as a weak wave continues to lift E-NE across the region, otherwise for tonight will have partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s, but a few spots especially up north could drop into the 30s again.

Partly to mostly sunny skies on Tuesday with highs mainly in the 70s.  Any lake breeze looks to be on the light side so it should be a fairly mild day even close to Lake Superior.

Will see some changes take place mid to late week as humidity and instability begin to increase across our area.  Forecast models are showing dew points getting into the upper 50s to middle 60s by Thursday and Friday with rather high amounts of instability (fuel/energy in the atmosphere) This along with an approaching warm front and cold front moving out of the northern Plains and western High Plains region should produce scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Northland from Wednesday night through Saturday -- A few storms could be on the strong side later this week, but the risk for severe weather looks low with weak winds aloft and rather weak shear in our area.

Should also be noted that even though there are chances for scattered showers and storms Wednesday night through Saturday, not everyone will get wet.  This is the kind of pattern where some locations get hit while others get missed completely.  It's impossible to predict what area/s will see these storms until the day of the event.

Highs for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are expected to be in the 70s and 80s although it will be cooler at times near Lake Superior.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Sprinkles or light showers possible mainly this evening.  Low 44 to 49.  Wind light and variable around 12 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 71 to 76.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 75 to 80 but it could be cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal Temperatures for May 22

High:  64
Low:   42

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:26 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:45 PM CDT

Tim






Sunday, May 20, 2018

Mostly clear, cool tonight; More clouds for Monday with a few showers or sprinkles possible. Turning more humid late week, greater chance for scattered showers/t-storms

/Issued 3:34 PM CDT, Sunday, May 20, 2018/

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z GFS model 500mb height and vort forecast for Monday, May 21, 2018
















Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov

12z HREF model from May 20, 2018
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Lots of sunshine across the Northland today, probably won't be as sunny on Monday as clouds lift northeast out of southern Minnesota by later tonight.  Also of note is what looks to be a smoke plume in northern Bayfield County in northwest Wisconsin this afternoon, not sure if this is a prescribed burn, or if there is a wild fire burning this afternoon in a small portion of northern Bayfield County, the plume of smoke from this fire is pushing toward the west/southwest through northern Douglas County and also over the southwestern portion of Lake Superior as of 3:30 PM today.












Source:  https://hprcc.unl.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of May 13, 2018.
















Source:  https://hprcc.unl.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of May 13, 2018.  Just a small portion in far northern Minnesota around the International Falls area with above average precipitation last week, elsewhere in the Northland another week with below average precipitation totals.
















Temperature and Precipitation Report for Duluth, Minnesota

May 13-19, 2018

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

*=Record High Temperature for the date

5/13:  76 F/+14 degrees above normal
5/14:  82 F/+20 degrees above normal
5/15:  60 F/-2 degrees below normal
5/16:  *88 F/+26 degrees above normal
5/17:  52 F/-11 degrees below normal
5/18:  66 F/+3 degrees above normal
5/19:  57 F/-6 degrees below normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

5/13:  39 F/-1 degree below normal
5/14:  53 F/+13 degrees above normal
5/15:  42 F/+2 degrees above normal
5/16:  45 F/+4 degrees above normal
5/17:  41 F/Normal
5/18:  39 F/-2 degrees below normal
5/19:  39 F/-3 degrees below normal

Note:  Average temperature for the week of May 13:  55.6 degrees (+4.1 degrees above normal) Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total Precipitation:  0.02 inches
Normal:  0.73 inches
Departure:  -0.71 inches below normal

State Averages for Minnesota for the week of May 13, 2018
Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  60.8 degrees
Departure:  +4.8 degrees above normal

Precipitation:  0.29 inches
Departure:  -0.46 inches below normal

Notes:

•3rd coldest low temperature on record for May 20 at Hibbing, Minnesota with a low Sunday morning of 25 degrees -- The record low for May 20 is 21 degrees set in 2002.

•5th coldest low temperature on record for May 20 at Brainerd, Minnesota with a low Sunday morning of 32 degrees -- The record low for May 20 is 26 degrees set in 1929.

•Duluth Airport dropped to at or below freezing (32 F) this morning for the 3rd time this month with a low Sunday morning of 31 degrees (Normal low is 42 degrees)  Last May only had 1 day the entire month with a low of 32 degrees.  The average number of days in May with a low of 32 F or colder is 4 (1875-2017 climate period)

•Spring 2018 through May 19 ranks as 2nd driest on record at Duluth, Minnesota with just 2.22 inches of precipitation from March 1 to May 20 -- The driest spring on record occurred in 1900 with 1.95 inches of precipitation.  Records date back to 1872.

Weather Synopsis

A beautiful spring day in the Northland with abundant sunshine along with light winds with high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s with slightly cooler temperatures closer to Lake Superior but not terribly chilly with only a light lake breeze today.

Will have clear skies this evening but some clouds will eventually push in from the south/southwest later tonight, this will be followed by mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies for Monday with a possibility for a few rain showers or sprinkles mainly for east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Lows tonight will range from the lower 30s to middle 40s, not as cold as Sunday morning but still a little chilly in spots.  Highs Monday will be in the 60s and 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday look mostly dry at the moment with highs in the 70s with a few spots possibly getting into the lower 80s on Wednesday.  It could be cooler though near Lake Superior depending on wind direction.

Increasing amounts of moisture and instability are forecast for later this week as low pressure heads into the upper Midwest -- Could see some showers and thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Thursday through Saturday with at least a small chance for a few stronger thunderstorms given the amount of instability that the computer models are generating for late week, however, other parameters for stronger convection look poor right now including a weak low level jet and generally weak winds in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Clear this evening, partly to mostly cloudy overnight.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Monday...  Considerable cloudiness.  A few showers or sprinkles possible in the afternoon.  High 65 to 70 but cooler closer to Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday...  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75 but it could be cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal Temperatures for May 21

High:  64
Low:  42

Sunrise Monday:  5:27 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:44 PM CDT

Tim


Saturday, May 19, 2018

Very Warm to Hot temps May 21-24 for western-central Canada. Closer to home -- Chilly with patchy frost tonight; Sunshine (Pleasant Sunday) Near 70 F, little cooler close to Lake Superior. Mainly dry into the middle of next week

/Issued 6:40 PM CDT, Saturday, May 19, 2018/

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European Ensemble model from May 19, 2018
















Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European Ensemble model from May 19, 2018
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Took a little longer than I thought earlier this afternoon for skies to clear in the Twin Ports and North Shore, but they did later in the afternoon!












Source:  http://weather.cod.edu












Rainfall Reports for May 18-19, 2018
Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

International Falls, MN:  0.64 inches
2 E Celina, MN:  0.38 inches
8 S Bigfork, MN:  0.37 inches
25 E Ely, MN:  0.35 inches
3 E Orr, MN:  0.27 inches
Cook, MN:  0.23 inches
12 N Grand Rapids, MN:  0.22 inches
Babbitt, MN:  0.21 inches
Hibbing, MN:  0.20 inches
4 E Island Lake, MN:  0.18 inches
Floodwood, MN:  0.08 inches
Cotton, MN:  0.02 inches
Duluth Airport:  0.02 inches
Grand Marais, MN:  0.02 inches

*Record Event*

Record rainfall at International Falls, Minnesota on May 18, 2018

New Record:  1.32 inches set on 5/18/2018
Old Record:  0.91 inches set on 5/18/1942

Weather Synopsis

High pressure will be in control of our weather during the next few days.  Today saw high temperatures in the low 50s to low 60s with a good deal of clouds which cleared out from west to east this afternoon -- Will have clear to partly cloudy skies for tonight with very cool overnight lows in the mid 20s to upper 30s, patchy frost is likely in some parts of the Northland for early Sunday morning.

Sunday looks like a real nice spring day with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s under sunny to partly cloudy skies along with generally light wind speeds around 12 mph or less.  A lake breeze is possible close to Lake Superior on Sunday resulting in slightly cooler temperatures near the immediate shoreline areas.

A few more clouds return on Monday as a weak system approaches from the southwest, but most of the showers with that feature should stay to our south.  Highs on Monday in the 60s and 70s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Clear to partly cloudy.  Patchy frost possible toward daybreak.  Low 34 to 39.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph, decreasing to 7 to 14 mph late.

.Sunday...  Mostly sunny.  High 65 to 70, little cooler closer to Lake Superior.  Wind light and variable around 12 mph.

.Monday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 66 to 71, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal Temperatures for May 20

High:  64
Low:  42

Sunrise Sunday:  5:28 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   8:43 PM CDT

Tim




Friday, May 18, 2018

Wettest May 18 on record at International Falls, MN today 0.92" of rain so far! Scattered showers tonight-Saturday morning, highs Saturday 50s to lower 60s. Dry Sunday, highs 60s to around 70. Dry and 70s Monday

/Issued 5:30 PM CDT, Friday, May 18, 2018/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

20z HRRR model run
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Radar loop through 5:45 PM CDT, Friday, May 18, 2018.  An area of showers moving into north central Minnesota late this afternoon with movement of the rain toward the north/east.
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM-Nest model -- Simulated Radar Forecast from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM Saturday.  Showers pass through parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight, with possibly a few more showers developing Saturday afternoon in northern Wisconsin.
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 water vapor satellite image from May 18, 2018 -- A complex pattern across the U.S. but the main takeaway is that the Northland looks to remain in a drier than normal weather pattern through the next several days with our only decent shot for some rain coming tonight and Saturday morning.













Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z Euro Ensemble model from May 18, 2018
















Source:  https://lab.weathermodels.com
















It's been a dry spring in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin -- Here are some precipitation departures for Spring 2018 (From March 1 to May 17)

Source:  https://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Grand Portage, Minnesota:  -4.16 inches below normal
Two Harbors, Minnesota:  -4.02 inches below normal
Duluth, Minnesota:  -3.44 inches below normal
Cloquet, Minnesota:  -3.23 inches below normal
Cass Lake, Minnesota:  -3.01 inches below normal
Grand Marais, Minnesota:  -2.97 inches below normal
Grand Rapids, Minnesota:  -2.92 inches below normal
Brainerd, Minnesota:  -2.39 inches below normal
International Falls, Minnesota:  -2.34 inches below normal

Weather Synopsis

Much warmer temperatures in most of the area today as winds shifted to the south, highs were in the 70s to lower 80s with much cooler temps closer to Lake Superior (mid 40s to mid 50s) due to an easterly breeze.  There was a cold front extending from northern Minnesota to western Minnesota with some rain occurring near that front today in western-northwest parts of the state.

Cold front moves through the Northland tonight through Saturday morning -- Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rain showers as that front moves through.  Not everyone will get rain, unfortunately, but some locations should be able to squeeze out up to a quarter inch or so of rain.

Mainly dry conditions return to the area Saturday afternoon through the middle of next week the way it looks now.

Lows tonight ranging from the lower 40s to upper 50s.  Highs for Saturday will be a little tricky, but in general expect temperatures to be in the 50s to lower 60s, but some parts of northwest Wisconsin could jump to around 70 degrees before Noon before falling a bit during the afternoon hours.  Highs for Sunday are expected to be in the 60s to lower 70s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Increasing cloudiness.  Scattered showers possible mainly after 10 PM.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph decreasing to around 10 mph and becoming light and variable late.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers possible mainly early.  Some clearing during the afternoon.  High 56 to 61.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast.

.Sunday...  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for May 19

High:  63
Low:   42

Sunrise Saturday:  5:29 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:42 PM CDT

Tim

Thursday, May 17, 2018

Abnormally Dry and Moderate Drought conditions covering most of the Northland per latest drought monitor. Showers north tonight; Dry Friday; Showers late Fri night-Sat. Cool east winds continue Fri near Lake Superior, warm Inland!

/Issued 6:00 PM CDT, Thursday, May 17, 2018/

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

20z HRRR model -- Simulated Radar forecast through 9 AM Friday.  Showers should remain over northern Minnesota tonight with mainly dry conditions through the night into Friday morning for east central Minnesota, Twin Ports and northwest Wisconsin.
















Source:  https://www.weather.gov/dlh/

12z DLHWRF model
















Source:  http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/

Abnormally Dry conditions (Yellow area on map) cover 53% of Minnesota as of May 15, 2018 -- This is up from 39% one week ago. Moderate Drought (Light tan color on map) covers 6% of Minnesota which is up from 1% one week ago.  Bottom line is that it has been dry lately especially over all but the south half of Minnesota with far northern areas of the state seeing the driest conditions lately.  Drought could worsen in coming weeks if we don't start to get more frequent rainfalls around here.
















Source:  http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/

Abnormally Dry conditions (Yellow area on map) covers 22% of Wisconsin, up from 1% last week.
















Weather Synopsis

Low pressure along with its warm front and cold front over the Rockies and northern Plains will move slowly toward the east through Saturday with the cold front pushing southeast and exiting the Northland on Saturday the way it looks now.

Occasional rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm in northern Minnesota tonight, dry elsewhere.  Most of the day Friday looks dry, followed by some more rain or showers spreading west to east through the Northland from late Friday night through Saturday.

A wide range in temperatures occurred in our area today with 40s near Lake Superior to around 70 in the Brainerd area and 50s in northern Minnesota.  Much warmer farther south with highs today in the 80s to around 90 degrees across the southern half of Minnesota.

Low temps tonight will be in the upper 30s to lower 50s, coolest temps near Lake Superior.  Highs Friday in the 70s to lower 80s except for much cooler temps once again near Lake Superior where a breezy easterly wind continues.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Windy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

.Friday...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 59 to 64, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 60 to 65.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming north.

Normal temperatures for May 18

High:  63
Low:   41

Sunrise Friday:  5:30 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:41 PM CDT

Tim


Wednesday, May 16, 2018

Record warmth in parts of the Northland today (May 16) Now, 20-40 mph NE winds ripping down the lake along with falling temps! Showers possible Thursday, Fri PM-Sat AM.

/Issued 5:40 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 16, 2018/

Source:  https://weather.us




















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Radar loop through 5:50 PM CDT, May 16, 2018 -- Looks like the bulk of the scattered showers and thunderstorms will be over northwest Wisconsin through about 7-8 PM this evening before ending.
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Watch the progression of today's cold front as it drops south through the Northland -- Afternoon cumulus field pops up near/south of the boundary thanks to the warm and slightly moist/unstable airmass that was in place today.












Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov















Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM-Nest model from 5.16.2018 (18z run)  Simulated Radar from 1 AM Thursday to 7 PM Thursday -- Most of the overnight hours should be dry in our area, then from around daybreak and through the day Thursday scattered showers develop and move through portions of the area, not expecting any severe weather tomorrow, and probably little thunderstorm activity, but a few downpours are possible in parts of the Northland on Thursday.
















Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

GEFS model 12z run from May 16, 2018.

Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid through June 1, 2018 -- The rest of this month and the first day of June looks warmer than average across the northern Plains, upper Midwest and western Great Lakes, although near Lake Superior expect more fluctuations in temperatures depending on wind direction which is typical this time of year.














Record warmth in northeast Minnesota today, May 16, 2018

Duluth, Minnesota

New Record:  88 degrees set on May 16, 2018
Old Record:  84 degrees set on May 16, 1962

Hibbing, Minnesota

New Record:  84 degrees set on May 16, 2018
Old Record:  83 degrees set on May 16, 1972

Weather Tidbits

•Today is the 3rd day so far this month with a temperature of 80 degrees or warmer at Duluth, Minnesota.  The average for May is 2 days, the record for May is 8 days set in 1980.  By the way last May had zero days at or above 80 degrees in Duluth.

•April 16, over a foot of snow on the ground in Duluth after the record breaking winter storm that dumped over 12 inches of snow on April 15 -- Fast forward one month to today's date, May 16, record heat with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, with the Airport just 2 degrees shy of 90 degrees! 

•A lot of us thought that spring would never get here after what happened back in early-mid April, quite a turn around since then!  Yes we've still had several days of very cool temperatures this month especially near Lake Superior but that is quite typical for spring, but the shots of warm air have been quite impressive this month, our normal highs in mid May are in the low to mid 60s, we've had a few days in the 70s and even the 80s!

Weather Synopsis

Summer temperatures in most of the Northland today thanks to a very warm airmass which was found south of a cold front in northern Minnesota.  850mb temps around +16C with 925mb temps up to +24C in parts of the area today, add to that some compressional warming just south of the cold front, and a breezy west-southwest wind, and you get a very warm day around here!  Highs were in the 70s and 80s with a few locations getting close to 90 degrees on this 16th day of May!  The cool spot was in far northern Minnesota thanks to an earlier cold frontal passage, these areas had highs in the mid 60s to low 70s today.

Big story through Friday will be the return of strong northeast winds and much cooler temperatures again near Lake Superior.  East/northeast wind 15 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph occurring tonight into Thursday morning -- Temperatures near Lake Superior will be in the 40s to lower 50s through Friday morning.

Inland temperatures will be in the 40s tonight with highs Thursday ranging from the low 50s to mid 70s, warmest temperatures found over southern areas from Brainerd east to Hinckley and Hayward.

Will have occasional rain showers in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Thursday through Saturday.  Trying to nail down the best times for the rain is hard to do, but best guess would be during the day Thursday followed by dry conditions Friday morning-Friday afternoon, then some more showers move in sometime Friday night, possibly lingering through Saturday, but there is a chance the showers will be out of here by Saturday morning.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Turning windy and cooler.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind becoming east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Thursday...  Windy and much cooler!  40 to 45 degrees colder compared to the record heat from Wednesday.  High 46 to 51, around 40 near Lake Superior.  Considerable cloudiness with occasional showers possible.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph.

.Friday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for May 17

High:  63
Low:   41

Sunrise Thursday:  5:32 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:  8:39 PM CDT

Tim