Tim's Weather Blog

Wintry mix of precip in parts of the Northland Tonight. Very warm temps/record highs in the Plains Today. Major model differences showing up this weekend.

2012-01-30T15:23:00.000-08:00

Issued at 4:05 PM CST, Monday, January 30th, 2012

A wintry mix of precipitation Tonight and Tuesday for Northern Minnesota
Above average temperatures will continue for the next several days
Generally dry after Tuesday

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter weather advisory is in effect from 9pm CST This Evening until 12pm CST Tuesday for the following Counties in Northern Minnesota: Koochiching...Northern Itasca...Central and Northern St. Louis...Northern Lake...and Northern Cook. Some cities included in the advisory are: International Falls...Bigfork...Togo...Hibbing...Virginia...Crane Lake...Orr...Ely...Isabella...and Forest Center.

Discussion: A mixture of sleet, freezing rain and snow will affect Northern Minnesota from mid-Evening through early Tuesday Afternoon. Snow accumulations of 1-2" are possible by Tuesday. Ice accumulations will be under 0.10". Roads will become slippery due to the freezing rain and snow.

A winter weather advisory for mixed precipitation means a mixture of freezing rain, sleet and snow is expected. Some accumulations of snow and ice are expected on untreated roads and sidewalks. Anyone with travel plans should be prepared for slippery roads and reduced visibility. Slow down when driving and allow extra stopping distance because you may loose control of your vehicle if you try to slow down or stop quickly.

Weather Advisory outline area per HAMweather

Weather Tidbits:

*50 below at Fairbanks, Alaksa this past weekend. 1st time reaching -50 degrees in 6 years. (Updraft MPR)

*Today marks the 9th time this winter with a high temperature of 50+ degrees at Chicago, Illinois. 5 is the average for high temperatures to reach the 50s thru January 30th, dating back to 1928. (Tom Skilling)

*48.5% of the Upper Midwest is covered by snow Today which is down from 90.9% at this time last week. Last year at this time, 86.5% of the Upper Midwest was covered by snow. (NOHRSC)

Very warm temperatures Today in Southwestern Minnesota

Below is a listing of temperatures from 2pm, January 30th, 2012

Montevideo, MN: 55 degrees
Madison, MN: 54 degrees
Olivia, MN: 54 degrees
Marshall, MN: 54 degrees
Redwood Falls, MN: 50 degrees

Numerous record high temperatures Today in the Central and Northern Plains
Source: coolwx.com

Note: Here are just a few of the record highs from January 30th, 2012.

Omaha, Nebraska: 66 degrees. Previous record high: 57 degrees set in 1988.
Lincoln, Nebraska: 69 degrees. Previous record high: 59 degrees set in 1992.
Des Moines, Iowa: 64 degrees. Previous record high: 57 degrees set in 1988.
Williston, North Dakota: 50 degrees. Previous record high: 46 degrees set in 1992.
Minot, North Dakota: 46 degrees. Previous record high: 44 degrees set in 1992.

Weather History:

On this date in 1994: A record low temperature of -35 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A warm front was centered basically along the I94 corridor in Central Minnesota This Afternoon. Unseasonably warm temperatures were found south of this boundary Today with 40s and 50s in Southern Minnesota with 60s and even some 70s from Southern South Dakot and Central Iowa and points south from there. Our area was north of the warm front Today and as a result temperatures were much cooler with 20s and low 30s covering the Northland which is still about 5 degrees or so above the average for late January. A band of light snow passed through the area late last night/This Morning with accumulations anywhere from a few tenths of an inch to as much as 1.5". Winds Today were from the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Westerly 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest with a disturbance heading east through the Northern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery. Incredibly warm 850mb temperatures covered the region late This Afternoon. +10 degrees C in far Southwest Minnesota to +2 to +4 degrees C in Northcentral and Eastern Minnesota with 0 to -6 degree C H85 temps in the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 30th)

Low pressure will move from Northern North Dakota to Northern Minnesota by dawn. A wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will affect locations along and north of Highway 2 Tonight with some patchy fog and light freezing drizzle possible in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with south or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Note: Map below represents the 850mb temperatures valid at 9pm Tonight per RUC model: Almost all of the Northland is in the +2 to +6 degree C range at 5,000 feet (850mb) A warm layer aloft combined with below freezing temperatures at the surface will result in some freezing rain and sleet in Northern Minnesota Tonight.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (January 31st)

Low pressure will exit to our east Tomorrow while a potent disturbance drops SE through our area. A mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain will continue Tomorrow Morning along and north of Highway 2 with a transition to some snow showers taking place during the Afternoon. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 30s but a few 40s are possible in Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 20s. South or east winds will become west at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (February 1st-3rd)

High temperatures from Wednesday through Friday will reach the 30s in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the teens and 20s. Looks generally dry from mid to late week.

Long Range Forecast (February 4th-10th)

Computer models are struggling this weekend. A few of them show a storm affecting the Upper Midwest as low pressure heads northeast out of the Plains. Other models keep any such storm well to our south. The 500mb pattern is forecasted to become very amplified/blocky by this weekend which could then carry over into next week, result from this will likely be big fluctuations in the computer models during the next couple days.

12z EUROPEAN forecast for Saturday Morning, February 4th, 2012

12z GEM-global forecast for Saturday Morning, February 4th, 2012

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. Light freezing rain, sleet or snow possible at times after 8pm. Low 21 to 26. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 40%.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle possible during the Morning. Scattered snow showers or flurries possible through the day. High 33 to 38. Wind becoming west at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 30%.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 20
Low: 2

Sunrise Tuesday: 7:35 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 5:10 PM CST

Tim

Snow arrives late Tonight...Ends before Noon Monday. 1-3" accumulations, highest totals along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

2012-01-29T15:43:00.000-08:00

Issued at 5:03 PM CST, Sunday, January 29th, 2012

A cold Evening, then rising temperatures Overnight
Snow Overnight thru midday Monday, some accumulation likely
Another system Monday Night-Tuesday takes the northern route
Temperatures will be above average most of this week

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A chilly day with highs in the teens which is near to slightly below average for late January. Sunshine was abundant throughout the area with light winds under 10 mph. A strong warm front was heading east through the Dakotas Today with a big range in temperatures. 26 degrees at Bismarck, North Dakota to 51 degrees at Dickinson, North Dakota (5pm)

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest with strong warm and moist advection heading east out of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. PWS late This Afternoon ranged from 0.10-0.30" in Minnesota to a half inch in the Central-Western Dakotas. 850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -14 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to +10 degrees C in Southwest North Dakota and Western South Dakota per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 29th)

Temperatures will drop This Evening under mostly clear skies and nearly calm winds. Expect temperatures through Midnight to bottom out in the single digits below to single digits above zero with some teens below possible in far Northeast Minnesota. Temperatures will rise after Midnight and should be in the single digits and teens by dawn as clouds increase while warm air advection spreads into the area.

Snow will develop between 9pm-Midnight from the Brainerd Lakes, Bigfork to International Falls area. Snow will spread east after Midnight and should reach the I35 corridor, Twin Ports and Iron Range after 2am.

Expect southeast winds to develop during the night at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night (January 30th)

A warm front will reach Central Minnesota and Northcentral Wisconsin during this period with low pressure tracking east through North Dakota Monday Night. Light snow and flurries will end from west to east on Monday. Skies will be mostly cloudy Tomorrow with highs in the 20s to lower 30s. Mostly cloudy skies should continue for Monday Night with light snow or a wintry mix of precipitation developing in Northern Minnesota while areas farther south have a risk for some patchy light freezing drizzle and fog. Lows Monday Night will be in the 20s. Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10 to 15 mph.

Note: Snowfall accumulations Tonight and Monday will generally be around an inch in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with 2-3" possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior, northeast of Duluth.

HPC's 1" or greater snowfall threat map for Tonight and Monday:

Extended Forecast (January 31st-February 2nd)

Low pressure will track east across Northern Minnesota on Tuesday. Light snow or a mixture of precipitation is expected to affect Northern and Northeast Minnesota on Tuesday with patchy light drizzle, freezing drizzle and fog possible in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 30s. This low exits to our east Tuesday Night with some possible flurries lingering in our area. Lows will be in the teens and 20s. A few flurries can't be ruled out for Wednesday and Thursday, but nothing significant is expected at this time. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Wednesday Night in the teens and 20s.

High probs. for at least 0.01" of ICE accumulation in the Northland Monday Night-Tuesday (HPC)

Note: Snowfall accumulations of 1-2" are possible on Tuesday, mainly north of a Bigfork to Silver Bay, Minnesota line.

Long Range Forecast (February 3rd-9th)

Overall the weather pattern is a dry one for our neck of the woods with a N/NW 500mb flow developing across Central Canada, Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. Biggest issue for our area will be the temperatures and the computer models seem to be trending toward a cooler regime during this period compared to what they have been showing in previous days.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Mostly clear This Evening. Increasing cloudiness Overnight. Light snow and flurries developing between 1-3am. Low 3 to 8 with temperatures rising into the teens by dawn. Light wind, becoming east to southeast around 10 mph Overnight. Chance of snow 70%.

.Monday... Light snow and flurries during the Morning. Total accumulations around 1". Mostly cloudy with patchy light freezing drizzle or fog possible. High 25 to 30. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70% during the Morning.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle. Low 20 to 25. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle. High 30 to 35.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 20
Low: 2

Sunrise Monday: 7:36 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 5:08 PM CST

Tim

Brief cold snap (near average temps) nice thaw for next week. 1" of snow possible late Sun Night-Mon?

2012-01-28T15:31:00.000-08:00

Issued at 4:35 PM CST, Saturday, January 28th, 2012

Flurries and snow showers around the area Tonight
A cold Sunday ahead
Warmer temperatures return on Monday and will stick around for several more days
Amplified weather pattern sets up by the end of next week

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Temperatures cooled off a bit Today compared to the past few days. Highs were in the upper teens to middle 20s which is right around average for late Janaury. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were found in our area with occasional flurries and snow showers. Winds were out of the northwest or west-southwest at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest with Friday's disturbance now in Eastern Canada while a new disturbance drops SE out of North Dakota per water vapor satellite imagery. A powerful 130-150 knot jet stream extended from Saskatchewan Province to the Western Dakota per RUC model analysis with a surge of colder air pushing south into the Upper Midwest ahead of this strong jet stream. 850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -12 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to -6 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota. -16 to -20 degree C 850mb temperatures were sitting to our north late This Afternoon and some of this cold air will find it's way into the Northland during the next 24 hours.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 28th)

Occasional snow showers and flurries will linger throughout the area with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Snowfall accumulations of around an inch will be possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior, especially in Iron County. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits below to low teens above zero. Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (January 29th)

High pressure will keep the area dry on Sunday, although some lake effect snow showers are possible mainly in Iron County where another inch of snow could accumulate on Sunday. Highs Tomorrow will be in the single digits and teens with northwest or southwest winds at up to 20 mph. Warm advection pattern develops Sunday Night as high pressure moves off to our east and a warm front approaches from the Northern Plains. Southerly winds will develop Sunday Night with increasing cloudiness.

Light snow and flurries will develop by mid-late Evening from the Brainerd Lakes area, north to Bigfork and International Falls. This snow will spread east, reaching the Iron Range, Twin Ports and I35 corridor after 1am Sunday Night. Snow should reach the North Shore/Arrowhead and Northwest Wisconsin toward dawn on Monday.

Temperatures Sunday Night will hold pretty steady from Tomorrow's highs. Winds Sunday Night will be out of the south or southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Note: Snowfall accumulations of around an inch are possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday Night into Monday.

1" or greater snowfall map for Sunday Night and Monday per HPC:

Extended Forecast (January 30th-February 1st)

Light snow and flurries will persist across our area Monday Morning as warm air advection continues with a warm front to our west/south. This snow should come to an end from west to east Monday Afternoon. Low pressure will pass through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, right now it appears that the best chance for some light snow or a wintry mix of precipitation will be in Northern Minnesota with maybe some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle affecting parts of Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday. This system exits to our east for Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Some flurries could linger in parts of our area Tuesday Night with dry weather for Wednesday. High temperatures from Monday through Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s, but a few spots could approach 40 degrees on Tuesday. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast (February 2nd-8th)

Upper level pattern is forecasted to become quite amplified during this period. The computer models are not handling this pattern change too well with some drastic shifts noted in some of the models from one run to the next. There are no signs of any big storms affecting the Upper Midwest, but the temperature forecast is up in the air at this time. It does appear that an upper level ridge will build into the Western U.S. starting late this week which will then carry over into the following week, but how far east this ridge builds is uncertain at the moment. If this ridge can build into the Upper Midwest, then a period of unseasonably mild temperatures would likely occur..Highs at least in the 30s and 40s, perhaps even warmer! Should this ridge stay farther west, then the Upper Midwest would likely have colder temperatures, possibly even arctic air as cold air would build south from Hudson Bay/Northern Canada.

500mb map for Saturday, February 4th per HPC:

Note: Keep an eye on that ridge in the Western U.S. If it ends up farther east than what this map shows, then it would be a warm Super Bowl weekend in Minnesota. If it stays farther west like what is depicted here, then it would be a chilly Super Bowl weekend for our area.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Occasional snow flurries. Low 0 to 5. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills around 10 to 15 below Overnight.

.Sunday... Mostly sunny. High 10 to 15. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Morning wind chills around 10 to 15 below.

.Sunday Night... Increasing cloudiness. Light snow or flurries possible after 2am. Low 5 to 10. Wind becoming south to southeast around 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%.

.Monday... Light snow or flurries possible during the Morning. Total snowfall accumulations of 1" or less. Mostly cloudy. High 25 to 30. Chance of snow 60%.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 20
Low: 2

Sunrise Sunday: 7:37 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 5:07 PM CST

Tim

A snowy Friday...1-5" totals! Complete listing below.

2012-01-27T15:15:00.000-08:00

Issued at 3:54 PM CST, Friday, January 27th, 2012

A quick, but intense snowfall across parts of our area Today
Colder weekend ahead with Sunday being the coldest day
Flurries/snow showers possible this weekend
Warmer temperatures for next week

Snowfall report for Friday, January 27th, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

McKinley, MN (St. Louis County) 5.5"
8 miles south of Bigfork, MN (Itasca County) 5.3"
6 miles west of Bowstring, MN (Itasca County) 5.0"
5 miles north of Virginia, MN (St. Louis County) 4.0"
Dixon Lake, MN (Itasca County) 4.0"
Nashwauk, MN (Itasca County) 3.2"
Cotton, MN (St. Louis County) 2.5"
Bigfork, MN (Itasca County) 2.5"
12 miles north of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County) 2.5"
Saginaw, MN (St. Louis County) 2.5"
7 miles northwest of Two Harbors, MN (Lake County) 2.3"
Moose Lake, MN (Carlton County) 2.0"
Little Marais, MN (Lake County) 2.0" Note: Fell an 1 hour.
3 miles north of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County) 1.0"
3 miles northeast of Nisswa, MN (Crow Wing County) 1.0"
5 miles northeast of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County) 1.0"

5 miles northwest of Duluth, Minnesota (St. Louis County) 1.8" Official NWS total thru 4pm.
Superior, WI (Douglas County) 2.2"

Weather Tidbits:

*23 days so far this winter with at least 0.1" of snow at Duluth, Minnesota. 7 days with at least 1.0" of snow and 2 days with at least 2.0" of snow.

*Prior to January 27th, our last day with at least 1.0" of snow occurred on December 31st at Duluth, MN.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1008mb was moving into Western Wisconsin late This Afternoon. This system produced the snow that affected our area Today. In general, 1-3" of snow accumulated, but there was a narrow corridor that picked up 4-5" of snow north of Duluth. The heaviest snow lasted about an hour or two with lingering light snow and flurries persisting for about another hour. Temperatures remained above average Today with highs in the 20s and 30s. Winds were out of the south, east or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Westerly 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery with one disturbance exiting to our east while another disturbance drops SE into the Northern Plains. 850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -8 degrees C in Northeast Minnesota to -4 degrees C in Southern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 27th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected. Snow in Northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota will end from west to east before Midnight. Snowfall totals in these areas should generally be in the 1-3" range. Scattered flurries could occur across the entire area Overnight. Lows will be in the teens, but some spots could dip into the single digits. Winds will be out of the northwest or west at up to 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (January 28th)

An upper level trough will begin to push into the Upper Midwest during this period while an upper level disturbance passes west-south of our area. Scattered flurries and snow showers are possible in our area during this period with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs Tomorrow will be in the teens and 20s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits below to low teens above zero. Winds will be out of the southwest or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 29th-31st)

Sunday will be a chilly one with highs in the single digits and teens. Lows Sunday Night will be similar to the day's high due to a warm front which will move into Minnesota from the Dakotas. This warm front could generate some light snow and flurries from Sunday Night into Monday with accumulations of 1" or less. Highs on Monday will be in the 20s to lower 30s with lows Monday Night in the teens and 20s. Another area of low pressure will pass across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, this system could bring some light snow or a wintry mix of precipitation to the area, although no significant accumulations are expected at this time. Highs on Tuesday will mainly be in the 30s.

Long Range Forecast (February 1st-7th)

Looks pretty quiet the middle of next week. Low pressure and upper level trough could affect our weather to some extent late next week/next weekend with some possible snow showers. The computer models are at odds when it comes to temperatures, especially from February 3rd-7th. Some of them show possible arctic air pushing south into the Upper Midwest while others bring quite a bit of warm air into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

Note: Climate Prediction Center says what cold for the 1st and 2nd week of February.

6-10 day temperature outlook (Feb. 2nd-6th)

8-14 day temperature outlook (Feb. 4nd-10th)

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday... Variable cloudiness. Flurries possible. High 20 to 25. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night... Variable cloudiness. Flurries possible. Low zero to 5.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 10 to 15.

.Sunday Night... Increasing cloudiness. Light snow or flurries possible after Midnight. Low 3 to 8. Chance of snow 20%.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. High 23 to 28. Chance of snow 30%.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 18 to 23.

.Tuesday... Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 20
Low: 2

Sunrise Saturday: 7:38 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 5:05 PM CST

Tim

96% of Minnesota now under a moderate drought! Some snow for Friday.

2012-01-26T19:29:00.000-08:00

Issued at 8:24 PM CST, Thursday, January 26th, 2012

Quiet weather Tonight
Snow with a couple inches of accumulation for some areas on Friday
Colder this weekend with some possible flurries or snow showers

Weather Tidbits:

*Thru January 25th, 2012 there have been 70 reported tornadoes in the U.S. This is the 3rd highest during the month of January since 1950. (TWC)

*Today marks the 10th time this month with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Latest Drought Monitor for Minnesota as of January 24th, 2012. (CPC)

Note: Moderate drought conditions now cover 96% of Minnesota which is up from 57% last week.

Weather History:

On this date in 2004: 18.2" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Another mild day with highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s. Overcast skies persisted all day long in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin while skies turned sunnier during the mid-late Afternoon hours in Western parts of our area. Areas of haze, fog, light freezing drizzle and snow showers also occurred in parts of our area Today. Winds were from the southwest or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Narrow north-south 500mb trough axis from Minnesota to Missouri was heading off to the east per water vapor satellite imagery with a W/NW upper level flow covering the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Widespread 60-150 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls were in place across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Southern U.S. while an upper level trough over the Northwest U.S. and Northern Rockies has 60-90 meter 12 hour H5 height falls with it. 850mb temperatures as of 8pm ranged from +2 to +6 degrees C in Southwest North Dakota and Western South Dakota to -6 to -8 degrees C in Northern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 26th)

Low pressure will be centered well to our east while another system heads into the Northern Plains. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the teens and 20s, but a few locales could slip into the single digits. Winds will be from the northwest or southwest at 5 to around 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (January 27th)

Low pressure will pass just south of our area on Friday before it exits to our southeast by Friday Evening. Snow will affect Northcentral-Eastcentral Minnesota on Friday with snow passing through Northwest Wisconsin from mid-late Afternoon Friday into Friday Evening.

Snow will reach Bigfork, Cass Lake, Walker and Brainerd between 6-8am Friday with snow heading east, reaching the Twin Ports and I35 corridor between 11am-1pm.

Latest model data shows there could be a 1-2 hour window where there could be some moderate to even heavy snowfall on Friday, especially along and south of Highway 2. Roads could become snow covered and slippery for Friday and Friday Evening.

Total snowfall accumulations should generally range from 1-2", but an isolated 3" total is not out of the question. Again, the higher snow totals should remain along and south of Highway 2 the way it looks now.

High temperatures on Friday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Friday Night in the single digits and teens. Winds Tomorrow will be out of the south, east or west. Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the west or northwest. Wind speeds will vary between 10 to 20 mph.

Note: 700mb map per 00z NAM forecast for 12pm Friday. Note the orange and red colors across parts of the Northland. This shows where there will be strong lifting which could produce a period of moderate to even heavy snow on Friday.

Extended Forecast (January 28th-30th)

Cooler air moves into the Upper Midwest this weekend with highs on Saturday in the teens and 20s with highs on Sunday in the single digits and teens. Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero. An upper level trough combine with a weak disturbance or two could lead to some flurries or light snow showers in our area on Saturday with dry weather expected on Sunday. Milder air moves in on Monday which combined with a warm front could generate some light snow and flurries. Highs on Monday will be in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast (January 31st-February 6th)

2 or 3 systems could affect the Northland during this period. The first would be next Tuesday-early Wednesday. With a 2nd and 3rd system possibly affecting the area late next week/next weekend. None of these storms look big, but there could be a little bit of snow in our area if these systems materialize. Arctic air will be kept well to our north during the beginning of February.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 13 to 18. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Clouding up during the Morning. Snow developing between 11am-1pm with some snow lingering through the Afternoon. High 27 to 32. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph becoming west late. Chance of snow increasing to 80% by the Afternoon.

.Friday Night... Light snow or flurries early. Total snowfall accumulations of 1-2" possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 60% early.

.Saturday... Flurries possible. Partly sunny. High 18 to 23.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 2 below to 3 above.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 10 to 15.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low zero to 5.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. High 20 to 25. Chance of snow 30%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 20
Low: 2

Sunrise Friday: 7:39 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 5:04 PM CST

Tim

Clearing heading east!

2012-01-26T13:54:00.000-08:00

Issued at 3:47 PM CST, Thursday, January 26th, 2012

Sunshine has broken out late This Afternoon in the Brainerd Lakes region, extending north into Western Itasca and Western Koochiching Counties in Northern Minnesota. Expect the clearing line to reach International Falls, Grand Rapids and McGregor, MN by 4:30-5pm. The Iron Range, Twin Ports and I35 corridor between 5-6pm.

Visible satellite from Nexlab-College of Dupage website.

Tim

Very mild temps Tonight and Thursday. Watchout for some patchy fog, flakes and freezing drizzle Tonight.

2012-01-25T19:14:00.000-08:00

Issued at 8:29 PM CST, Wednesday, January 25th, 2012

Warmer than average temperatures continue into Friday
A little bit of snow, light freezing drizzle or fog possible Tonight
Turns colder this weekend before it warms up again for next week

Weather Tidbits:

*Thru January 24th, 2012 there have been 59 tornadoes reported in the U.S. Only 4 other January's have had more than 50 tornadoes. 1999; 218. 2008; 88. 1975; 54. 1997; 50. (TWC)

*51 severe weather and 7 tornado reports across Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi on January 24th-25th, 2012. (SPC)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 994mb was centered in Western Manitoba Province This Evening with a warm southerly flow occurring in the Upper Midwest ahead of this low. Highs Today were in the upper 20s to middle 30s which is 10 to around 15 degrees above normal for late January. Winds Today were out of the south at 5 to around 20 mph. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies covered our area with some patchy fog, haze, flurries and light freezing drizzle.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W/SW 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest while a potent disturbance to our northwest and 60-90 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls spread into our area from the Northern Plains. Upper level low was over Texas This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery with some much needed rain continuing to fall in portions of the Southern Plains. A powerful jet of 130-160 knots was aimed at the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies per RUC model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 8pm ranged from +2 degrees C in Western and Southern Minnesota to zero to -2 degrees C in Northern and Eastern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 25th)

Low pressure will be centered to our northwest while a cold front moves east out of the Dakotas. Mostly cloudy skies will occur Tonight with areas of fog and light freezing drizzle along with some passing snow showers and flurries. Only minor accumulations of a half inch or less of snow are forecasted Tonight with little if any ice accumulations, but it only takes a small amount of ice to cause some travel issues. Lows Tonight will be in the teens and 20s with south or west winds from 5 to around 20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (January 26th)

Low pressure will be centered to our north while a cold front pushes off to our south/east. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with some flurries or snow showers possible on Thursday. Could even be some lingering fog or light freezing drizzle early in the day. Temperatures will stay mild with highs on Thursday in the 20s and 30s with lows Thursday Night in the teens and 20s. Winds during this period will be from the west, northwest or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 27th-29th)

Low pressure passes west-south of the area on Friday...This system could go on to produce a minor 1-2" snowfall event in Southern Minnesota on Friday with some flurries/snow showers possible farther north. Upper level trough digs into the Upper Midwest this weekend which could lead to some additional flurries and snow showers, but no major accumulations are expected at this time. Highs on Friday will be in the 20s and 30s with high temperatures for Saturday in the teens and 20s. Coldest day looks to be on Sunday when highs will be in the single digits and teens. Low temperatures Friday Night will be in the teens. Lows Saturday Night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero.

Note: 700mb map valid for 12pm CST Friday, Jan. 27th, 2012. This map depicts areas of lift which could help to produce a brief period of snow from early-mid Friday Afternoon. Note the yellow and orange colors in NE Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, decent lift! NAM forecast (unisys)

Long Range Forecast (January 30th-February 5th)

Could be dealing with some weak systems during this forecast period, but none of them look very strong and they shouldn't produce much in the way of snow for our area. One system could affect the region around Monday (30th) of next week with a 2nd-3rd system possible toward the middle and end of next week. No arctic airmasses during the last 2 days of January and thru the first 5 days of February.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle with a few snow showers or flurries also possible. Low 23 to 28. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday... Partly to mostly sunny. Patchy fog, light freezing drizzle of flurries possible during the Morning. High 31 to 36. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 13 to 18. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. High 27 to 32. Chance of snow 30%.

.Friday Night... Variable cloudiness. Flurries possible. Low 10 to 15.

.Saturday... Flurries possible. Partly sunny. High 18 to 23.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 2 below to 3 above.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 10 to 15.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19
Low: 1

Sunrise Thursday: 7:40 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 5:02 PM CST

Tim

A light dusting of snow possible Overnight for some parts of the Northland.

2012-01-24T19:10:00.000-08:00

Issued at 8:24 PM CST, Tuesday, January 24th, 2012

Above average temperatures thru Friday
A few weak systems with dustings of snow possible into the weekend
Colder temperatures arrive on Saturday and Sunday

Weather Tidbits:

*January 2012 looks like it will go down as the 7th consecutive month with an above average temperature and the 5th consecutive month with below average precipitation at Duluth, Minnesota.

*Precipitation deficit thru January 23rd is up to 5.47" at Duluth, Minnesota.

*42.2" of snow has fallen so far this month at Marquette, Michigan vs. 2.7" at Duluth, Minnesota.

Seasonal snowfall update:

Note: First number is the amount of snow that has fallen thru January 23rd. The second number is the departure from average.

Duluth, Minnesota: 14.5"/-34.4"
International Falls, Minnesota: 30.3"/-12.4"
Twin Cities, Minnesota: 14.4"/-16.1"
St. Cloud, Minnesota: 12.8"/-13.3"
Grand Forks, North Dakota: 10.3"/-15.8"
Eau Claire, Wisconsin: 14.4"/-11.2"
Green Bay, Wisconsin: 12.9"/-14.0"
Marquette, Michigan: 87.6"/-17.9"

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Partly to mostly cloudy skies were common with above average temperatures. Highs were in the middle 20s to lower 30s with winds from the south or west at under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W/SW 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. Strong upper level low over Southeastern New Mexico was churning slowly toward the east...This system was bringing widespread rainfall to Texas and Oklahoma Today. Another system was affecting the Pacific Northwest as a powerful 130-150+ knot upper level jet slams into the Northwest U.S. Most of the Northern tier of the U.S. was void of any real cold air with 850mb temperatures as of 8pm ranging from +1 degree C in Southern Minnesota to -2 to -6 degrees C in Northern Minnesota. The coldest air has moved into Eastern Canada where 850mb temps ranged from -12 to -16 degrees C per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 24th)

A weak disturbance will pass through the Upper Midwest and could bring some flurries or light snow showers to portions of our area...Any accumulations would be minor and remain around one half inch or less. Note: The potential also exists for some patchy light freezing drizzle, mainly in Southern portions of the area from Brainerd to Hinckley. Lows Tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies will be in the teens and 20s, but some single digits are possible in spots that have mostly clear skies for a couple hours. Winds Tonight will be out of the west or south at under 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (January 25th)

An area of low pressure will be centered to our northwest during this period. Some flurries or snow showers are possible early Tomorrow Morning...And then again Wednesday Night, mainly in the Northern part of Minnesota. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Wednesday Night in the teens and 20s. Winds will be from the south or west at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 26th-28th)

Thursday will remain mild with highs in the 20s and 30s. Looks a bit cooler on Friday with highs generally in the 20s. Colder air (more seasonal temps) will move into the area on Saturday with highs in the teens and 20s. Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the teens with some single digits possible in Northern Minnesota. Could be dealing with a bit of snow late this week into Saturday as weak systems continue to pass through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, none of these disturbances look very strong at this time so nothing more than a dusting of snow is expected.

Long Range Forecast (January 29th-February 4th)

The coldest stretch of weather is forecasted to occur this weekend before temperatures moderate from January 31st-February 4th. Pattern continues to look unfavorable for any big storm systems for the Upper Midwest into early February.

Note: Map below is the 6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. Valid from Jan. 30th-Feb.3rd.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Considerable cloudiness. Flurries or snow showers possible Overnight. Low 12 to 17. Wind southwest around 12 mph.

.Wednesday... Flurries possible. Partly sunny. High 28 to 33. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Variable cloudiness. Flurries possible. High 30 to 35.

.Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 13 to 18.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Low 10 to 15.

.Saturday... Flurries possible. Partly sunny. High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19
Low: 1

Sunrise Wednesday: 7:41 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday: 5:01 PM CST

Tim

Much of the area saw a nice amount of snow the last day or so, but Duluth/Superior missed out once again.

2012-01-23T15:26:00.000-08:00

Issued at 4:06 PM CST, Monday, January 23rd, 2012

Snow continues Tonight in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Should get close to 30 or break the 30 degree mark Wednesday and Thursday
Turns colder this weekend
No big storms anytime soon

Snowfall report for Saturday Night-Monday Morning, January 21st-23rd, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Orr, MN (St. Louis County) 7.7"
2 miles west-northwest of Marcell, MN (Itasca County) 6.5"
8 miles south of Bigfork, MN (Itasca County) 6.5"
Maple, WI (Douglas County) 6.3"
1 mile west of Indus, MN (Koochiching County) 6.0"
Togo, MN (Itasca County) 5.0"
2 west of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County) 5.0"
2 miles west of Hertel, WI (Burnett County) 5.0"
Oulu, WI (Bayfield County) 5.0"
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County) 4.7"
8 miles west of Remer, MN (Cass County) 4.0"
4 miles south of Northome, MN (Itasca County) 4.0"
Spooner, WI (Washburn County) 4.0"
Brule, WI (Douglas County) 4.0"
Hawthorne, WI (Douglas County) 3.5"
4 miles southeast of Bruno, MN (Pine County) 3.5"
6 miles northeast of Cloverland, WI (Douglas County) 3.0"
7 miles southeast of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County) 3.0"
Saginaw, MN (St. Louis County) 3.0"
Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County) 2.4"
Two Harbors, MN (Lake County) 2.3"
8 miles southeast of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County) 2.3"
Alborn, MN (St. Louis County) 2.0"
Palisade, MN (Aitkin County) 1.8"
Ely, MN (St. Louis County) 1.2"

Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 0.9" official NWS total.

Weather Tidbits:

*February 14th, 2011: Last time a 4" or greater snowfall occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

*April 16th, 2011: Last time a 3" or greater snowfall occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

*206 preliminary severe weather reports with 25 tornadoes on January 22nd-23rd, 2012 across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast U.S. 2 fatalities and 100 injuries were reported due to a tornado in Jefferson County, Alabama This Morning. Source: Storm Prediction Center. TWC.

Weather History:

On this date last year: The low temperature was -22 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 990mb has moved into Eastern Lake Superior late This Afternoon. Snowfall associated with this low affected Northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota Today with several inches of accumulation. A seperate disturbance caused the locally heavy snowfall that affected portions of Northcentral Minnesota from late Saturday Night into Monday Morning. Duluth was in the middle of both these heavy snow bands with only a light dusting accumulating in the city. Highs Today ranged from the upper teens to upper 20s with winds turning to the northwest at 10 to 25 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A strong 500mb trough with 120-180 meter 12 hour height falls was moving NE through the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Lakes per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis. Northwest upper level flow was occurring in Minnesota on the backside of this system. 850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged +2 degrees C in parts of Eastern Montana to -7 to -10 degrees C in Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 23rd)

Strong low pressure and upper level trough will move into Eastern Ontario Province during the night. Light snow will persist at least through the Evening in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with additional snowfall accumulations of 1-2". A band of heavier lake effect snow will affect the South Shore of Lake Superior from Northern Douglas, east through Northern Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin. Additional snowfall accumulations in these areas will range from 2-6". Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with lows in the single digits below to low teens above zero. Winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

*Winter Weather Advisory* remains in effect until Midnight CST Tonight for Cook and Lake Counties in Northeast Minnesota and for Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...Sawyer...and Price Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.

*Winter Weather Advisory* is in effect until 6 AM CST Tuesday for Iron County Wisconsin.

*Winter Weather Advisory* is in effect until 6 PM CST This Evening for Central and Northern St. Louis County Minnesota.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (January 24th)

High pressure will pass through the Upper Midwest during this period resulting in dry weather and partly cloudy skies. Highs Tomorrow will be in the teens and 20s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens. Winds will be from the west, northwest or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 25th-27th)

W/NW upper level flow will be in place for mid to late week with mild Pacific air flowing into our area. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday should reach the 20s and 30s with lows both nights in the teens and 20s. Friday turns a bit cooler with highs generally in the 20s. A clipper or two could impact the Upper Midwest with some flurries or snow showers, but no big accumulations are anticipated at this time.

Long Range Forecast (January 28th-February 3rd)

It does look cooler during this period, but no arctic airmasses are expected at this time. The lack of any big storms will also highlight this forecast period. Could have the occasional weak system with a little bit of snow every now and then, but the pattern just is not favorable for a stronger storm to come up from the Rockies or Southern/Central Plains.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. Flurries mainly This Evening. Low 5 to 10. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 17 to 22. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 8 to 12. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Thursday... Variable cloudiness. High 30 to 35.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 13 to 18.

.Friday... Mostly cloudy. High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19
Low: 1

Sunrise Tuesday: 7:42 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 4:59 PM CST

Tim

Hazardous travel conditions possible thru Monday. Some snow, light icing and maybe even some fog. Heaviest snow amounts west-north of Duluth.

2012-01-21T18:16:00.000-08:00

Issued at 7:03 PM CST, Saturday, January 21st, 2012

Some snow, freezing drizzle and fog thru Sunday Night
Greatest snowfall accumulations should remain west-north of Duluth
Lingering light snow/flurries on Monday
Above average temperatures expected next week

Low temperature report for Saturday, January 21st, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN: -10 degrees
International Falls, MN: -21 degrees
Brainerd, MN: -13 degrees
Hibbing, MN: -20 degrees
Hayward, WI: -17 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN: -6 degrees
Grand Marais, MN: -22 degrees
Ely, MN: -26 degrees
Orr, MN: -24 degrees
Crane Lake, MN: -24 degrees
Cook, MN: -24 degrees
Longville, MN: -17 degrees
Moose Lake, MN: -15 degrees
Cloquet, MN: -13 degrees
Superior, WI: -9 degrees
Phillips, WI: -17 degrees
Northome, MN: -23 degrees
Embarrass, MN: -27 degrees
4 miles east of Island Lake, MN: -20 degrees
Kabetogama, MN: -22 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN: -25 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN: -24 degrees
Butternut, WI: -21 degrees
Upson, WI: -28 degrees
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI: -21 degrees

Weather Tidbits:

*96% of the Upper Midwest is covered by snow as of Janaury 21st. This is up from 55% on January 14th. The average snow depth has increased from 0.9" to 3.1" from the 14th-21st. Last year at this time 95% of the Upper Midwest was covered by snow with an average snow depth of 14.5" (NOHRSC)

*47 preliminary severe weather reports from January 20th-21st across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast U.S. (SPC)

Weather History:

One year ago Today the high temperature was -5 degrees with a low of -25 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Temperatures have warmed up Today compared to the past couple days. Highs were in the teens which is near to slightly below average for late January. Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found in our area Today with some scattered snow showers and flurries at times, mainly in Northcentral Minnesota. Winds Today were from the south or east at 5 to around 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough with 12 hour height falls of 90-150 meters was moving east through the Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis. 110-120 knot mid and upper level jet streak was over Southern California or on the southwest side of the upper trough. W/SW 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest out ahead of this Western system. 850mb temperatures as of 7pm ranged from +2 to +4 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota to -6 to -12 degrees C in Central and Northern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 21st)

Several areas of low pressure across the Rockies will pull out into the Northern Plains and Western High Plains during the night with a strong southwest low level jet of 40-60 knots aimed at the Upper Midwest which will result in a lot of warm air advection through the night. Some snow will occur Tonight in Northern and Western parts of our area from Walker and Cass Lake thru Grand Rapids, Bigfork, and International Falls...east thru the Iron Range and Arrowhead. Snowfall accumulations of around an inch or two are possible in these areas by dawn. Patchy light freezing drizzle or flurries will be possible in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Skies will be mostly cloudy Tonight with temperatures holding steady in the teens to around 20 degrees. Winds will remain out of the south or east at 10 to around 25 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (January 22nd)

Low pressure will pull out into the Central Plains during the day Sunday, this low will then track NE toward Northern Illinois by late Sunday Night. This low combined with a developing negatively tiled upper level trough will cause some precipitation in the Northland during this period.

Snow should be the main precipitation type for Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead while farther south a mixture of snow, freezing drizzle and even some fog is expected. Precipitation that does fall should be on the light side Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.

Overcast skies are forecasted this period with temperatures in the teens and 20s. Winds will be out of the south, east or north at 10 to around 20 mph.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* has been issued from Midnight CST Tonight until Noon CST Sunday for the following Counties in Minnesota: Koochiching...Northern Itasca...Central and Northern St. Louis...Lake...and Cook. Some cities included in the advisory are: International Falls...Bigfork...Hibbing...Ely...Crane Lake...Two Harbors...Isabella...Silver Bay...Lutsen...Hovland...and Grand Marais. (NWS Duluth)

Total snowfall accumulations from Tonight through Monday:

1-3" in Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead with localized amounts up to 4".
1-2" for Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Extended Forecast (January 23rd-25th)

Deep low pressure and strong upper level trough will exit to our northeast on Monday. Some light snow and flurries will likely continue on Monday in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with some heavier lake effect snow showers possibly developing along the South Shore of Lake Superior as winds turn to the northwest behind the surface low. Highs on Monday will mainly be in the 20s. Dry weather will return to the region Monday Night into Tuesday with lows in the single digits below to around 10 above zero with highs on Tuesday in the teens to low 20s. A weak clipper will pass by to our north from Tuesday Night into Wednesday, might get a dusting of snow across the area with this mid-week system. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees.

Long Range Forecast (January 26th-February 1st)

Doesn't look like will have any arctic airmasses in our area during this period as the flow continues to be out of the west or west-northwest. No big storms are forecasted either. Could see some weak clippers every now and then with the usual light dusting of snow, more or less what we have been seeing all winter.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. Patchy light freezing drizzle possible Overnight. Flurries possible through the night. Low 10 to 15. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday... Overcast. Occasional freezing drizzle and flurries. Patchy fog possible. High 23 to 28. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Overcast. Light snow or flurries. Freezing drizzle and fog also possible, especially during the Evening. Low 20 to 23. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph becoming north to northwest late.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Light snow and flurries. Total snowfall accumulations of 1" or less. High 25 to 30.

.Monday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 0 to 5.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 17 to 22.

.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 8 to 12.

.Wednesday... Flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19
Low: 1

Sunrise Sunday: 7:44 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 4:56 PM CST

Tim

31 below This Morning at Gile, Wisconsin. Keeping an eye on a possible snow event late this weekend/early next week.

2012-01-20T15:21:00.000-08:00

Issued at 4:02 PM CST, Friday, January 20th, 2012

Another cold night ahead
Moderating temperatures this weekend which will carry over into next week
Model differences linger for the Sunday-Monday system

Low temperature report for Friday, January 20th, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN: -12 degrees
International Falls, MN: -20 degrees
Brainerd, MN: -18 degrees
Hibbing, MN: -22 degrees
Hayward, WI: -21 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN: -6 degrees
Ely, MN: -24 degrees
Crane Lake, MN: -22 degrees
Eveleth, MN: -22 degrees
Pine River, MN: -20 degrees
Superior, WI: -9 degrees
Phillips, WI: -18 degrees
Cook, MN: -27 degrees
Embarrass, MN: -25 degrees
Finland, MN: -20 degrees
Butternut, WI: -24 degrees
Upson, WI: -31 degrees
Gordon, WI: -21 degrees
Winter, WI: -24 degrees

Snowfall update for Duluth, Minnesota

December 1st-January 19th:

Total snowfall: 9.2" versus 29.8" during this period last year.
Average: 30.4"
Departure from average: -21.2"

Seasonal snowfall for the winter of 2011-12...Ending on January 19th

Total snowfall: 12.9" versus 65.4" during this period last year.
Average: 46.5"
Departure from average: -33.6"

Weather History:

On this date in 1996: A record low temperature of -35 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure ridge of 1024mb stretched from the Montana-North Dakota border to Eastern Wisconsin with low pressure of 1004mb located in Southern Oklahoma. An overrunning snow event hit parts of Southern Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Illinois Today with several inches of fluffy snow reported. Our area stayed dry Today with partly to mostly sunny skies. Below average temperatures continued Today with highs in the single digits to low teens. Winds were from the west or southwest at around 5 to 10 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis indicates a W-NW 500mb flow across the Upper Midwest with a weather system heading E-NE out of the Southern Plains. A tight thermal gradient was in place across the Central U.S. with late Afternoon 850mb temperatures ranging from -10 degrees C at Chicago, Illinois to +4 degrees C at St. Louis, Missouri. Colder air continued across the Upper Midwest where 850mb temperatures ranged from -14 to -18 degrees C while very warm winter temperatures covered the Central-Southern U.S. with +10 to +20 degree C 850mb temps and surface temps in the 70s and 80s from Southern Oklahoma and Southern Arkansas, through Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 20th)

High pressure will cover the Upper Midwest. Clear to partly cloudy skies are forecasted along with light winds which will result in another night of frigid temperatures. Lows will be in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero in the Northland with some communities possibly reaching 30 below! Winds will remain out of the west or south at 10 mph or less.

Saturday and Saturday Night (January 21st)

High pressure heads off to the east while low pressure approaches the Western High Plains and Northern Plains. Southerly winds will develop during this period with a developing low level jet of 40-60 knots aimed at the Upper Midwest for Saturday Night. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted Tomorrow with highs in the single digits and teens. There might be some flurries or snow showers in far Northern Minnesota, and also along the North Shore of Lake Superior, but little if any accumulation is expected during the day. A better chance for snow will appear Saturday Night, mainly affecting Northcentral Minnesota...Including the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake and Walker, up to 1" of snow could accumulate Saturday Night in these areas. Some lake effect snow showers could affect the North Shore of Lake Superior from Two Harbors to Grand Marais. The rest of our area will have a lesser chance for light snow/flurries Saturday Night. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow Night with temperatures holding steady in the single digits and teens. Winds during this period will be from the south or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 22nd-24th)

A complex weather pattern will occur from Sunday into Monday and the computer models are at odds as to how everything will setup. One area of low pressure will pass northwest-north of our area for Sunday and Monday while another low heads northeast out of the Central Plains. Some of the computer models phase the lows and form a negatively tilted trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes while some other models don't phase the lows until they reach Eastern Canada either Monday Night or Tuesday. The latter solution would result in less precipitation/snowfall for the Northland while the more phased solution could lead to a more significant precip/snow event for portions of the Northland. Note: It'll probably take until Saturday Night for the models to come into agreement.

A chance for snow will exist on Sunday and Sunday Night in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. There might even be some some freezing drizzle/freezing rain on Sunday in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Light snow and flurries could linger into Monday depending on the timing and evolution of this storm system, in fact the snow could be heavier in Northwest Wisconsin and possibly Eastern Minnesota and the Arrowhead if this system wraps up to our southeast.

Dry weather will return on Tuesday.

High temperatures from Sunday through Tuesday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits and teens. Lows Monday Night will be in the single digits below to around 10 above zero.

Long Range Forecast (January 25th-31st)

A few weak systems could affect the area during this period with some light snow or flurries at times but no major storms are expected at this time. Quite a difference between the 12z EURO and 12z GFS model by next weekend...The EURO has arctic air in Western Canada pushing back toward the Pacific Northwest which would setup a SW flow and possibly a storm emerging from the Rockies. The GFS is completely opposite with basically a continuation of a west or west-northwest upper level flow.

Preliminary snowfall predictions for Sunday and Monday, January 22nd-23rd:

Looks like a general 1-2" snowfall for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but there could be some exceptions. Northern Minnesota including the North Shore of Lake Superior could get 2-4" of snow, this would be north of Highway 2. Slightly heavier snowfall amounts could also occur in portions of Northwest Wisconsin.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Very cold. Mostly clear. Low 12 below to 17 below. Wind west at 10 mph or less.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 10 to 15. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. Low 5 to 10. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 20%.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Snow possible. High 22 to 27. Chance of snow 40%.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Snow possible. Low 10 to 15. Chance of snow 40%.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 20 to 25.

.Monday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 0 to 5.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 17 to 22.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19
Low: 1

Sunrise Saturday: 7:45 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:55 PM CST

Tim

Stays cold Tonight and Friday. Warms up this weekend!

2012-01-19T19:24:00.000-08:00

Issued at 8:19 PM CST, Thursday, January 19th, 2012

Another frigid night but with less wind compared to last night
Cold temperatures continue on Friday with a snow system passing south of our area
Moderating temperatures this weekend with some snow possible by Sunday

Low temperature report for Thursday, January 19th, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN: -18 degrees
International Falls, MN: -25 degrees
Brainerd, MN: -20 degrees
Hibbing, MN: -20 degrees
Hayward, WI: -16 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN: -11 degrees
Two Harbors, MN: -18 degrees
Silver Bay, MN: -18 degrees
Grand Marais, MN: -22 degrees
Ely, MN: -22 degrees
Orr, MN: -26 degrees
Crane Lake, MN: -26 degrees
Bigfork, MN: -24 degrees
Cook, MN: -24 degrees
Longville, MN: -22 degrees
Pine River, MN: -22 degrees
Aitkin, MN: -18 degrees
Superior, WI: -15 degrees
Siren, WI: -15 degrees
Bruno, MN: -19 degrees
3 miles east of Wright, MN: -20 degrees
Cass Lake, MN: -23 degrees
Northome, MN: -23 degrees
Babbitt, MN: -26 degrees
Embarrass, MN: -24 degrees
Floodwood, MN: -21 degrees
Kabetogama, MN: -25 degrees
Butternut, WI: -17 degrees
Upson, WI: -23 degrees
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI: -18 degrees

Snowfall report from Wednesday and Thursday, January 18th-19th, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Hurley, WI (Iron County) 4.0"
Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield County) 3.0"
Gile, WI (Iron County) 2.5"
Herbster, WI (Bayfield County) 2.0"
5 miles southwest of Bruno, MN (Pine County) 2.0"
8 miles south of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County) 1.5"
4 miles west of Washburn, WI (Bayfield County) 1.5"
3 miles north of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County) 1.2"
3 miles west of Phillips, WI (Price County) 1.0"
Danbury, WI (Burnett County) 1.0"
Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 0.7"

Wind Chill Report for Thursday, January 19th, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Hibbing, MN: -45 degrees
Two Harbors, MN: -44 degrees
Brainerd, MN: -41 degrees
International Falls, MN: -40 degrees
Duluth, MN: -41 degrees
Grand Marais, MN: -53 degrees
Isabella, MN: -50 degrees
Littlefork, MN: -45 degrees
Grand Rapids, MN: -40 degrees
Cloquet, MN: -40 degrees
Grand Portage, MN: -51 degrees
2 miles south-southwest of Proctor, MN: -42 degrees
1 mile west-northwest of Kabetogama, MN: -50 degrees

February 2012 Climate Outlook for Duluth, Minnesota
Source: Climate Prediction Center

33% chance of above normal temperatures. Equal chances for above, below or normal precipitation.

February-April 2012 Climate Outlook for Duluth, Minnesota
Source: Climate Prediction Center

Equal chance of above, below or normal temperatures. 33% chance for above normal precipitation.

Weather History:

On this date in 1994: A record low temperature of -34 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Tidbits:

*6 days so far this month with a low temperature of 0 degrees or colder at Duluth, Minnesota.

*9 days so far this winter with a low temperature of 0 degrees or colder at Duluth, Minnesota compared to 21 days during the same period last year.

*Temperature on January 18th, 2012 dropped below zero for the first time this winter in the Twin Cities which ties with 1889 and 2002 for the latest below zero temperature recorded at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport. (NWS Chanhassen, MN)

Note: Katabatic winds developed late Wednesday Night in Grand Marais, Minnesota with a peak wind gust of 59 mph! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katabatic_wind

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A blast of arctic air kept high temperatures in the single digits below to single digits above zero across our area Today with sunny to partly cloudy skies. Winds were out of the west or northwest at under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

West-northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest with a powerful jet stream of 130-160 knots stretching northwest-southeast from Southern Saskatchewan Province thru Minnesota down to Western Virginia per RUC model analysis. Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level trough moving E-SE across the Pacific Northwest with a plume of moisture extending from California thru the Rockies. 850mb temperatures as of 8pm ranged from -24 degrees C in far Northern Minnesota to -14 degrees C in far Southwest Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 19th)

High pressure will be in control of our weather resulting in clear to partly cloudy skies with light winds of 10 mph or less. Lows will be in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero.

Friday and Friday Night (January 20th)

High pressure will move off to our east with another area of high pressure building into the Northern Plains on Friday before it shifts into the Upper Midwest for Friday Night. An overrunning snow event will hit the Southern half of Minnesota on Friday with several inches of accumulation likely. The northern fringe of this shield of snow could affect Southern parts of our area on Friday with some light snow and flurries along and south of a line from Brainerd to Hinckley to Minong to Park Falls, snowfall accumulations of a dusting up to 1.0" is possible for those areas. Highs on Friday will be in the single digits below to low teens above zero with lows Friday Night in the single digits, teens and 20s below. Northeast or west winds are forecasted Tomorrow with northwest or south winds Tomorrow Night, wind speeds will range from 5 to 15 mph. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow with mostly clear skies for Friday Night.

Extended Forecast (January 21st-23rd)

Looks dry on Saturday with high temperatures in the single digits and teens. High pressure will pull off to our east on Saturday with southerly winds commencing on the backside of this high. Low pressure will pass by to our northwest-north from Sunday into Monday while another area of low pressure tracks from the Central Plains to the Eastern Great Lakes during the Sunday-Monday time frame. Computer models are having some difficulty with how this system will evolve for late this weekend/early next week. It does look like most of our area will see some light snow for Sunday with lingering flurries on Monday. Right now this doesn't look to be a huge snow producer, however, should this system trend slower and stronger and track slightly more to the west, than heavier snowfall amounts could occur in parts of the Northland for Sunday and Monday. High temperatures on Sunday and Monday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Sunday Night mainly in the teens.

Long Range Forecast (January 24th-30th)

No big storms are expected during this period, but we could see some weak systems with a bit of snow every now and then. Arctic air should stay well to our northwest with chilly, but no real extreme cold expected for our area.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Mostly clear and very cold. Low 13 below to 18 below. Wind west around 12 mph.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 5 to 10. Wind west around 12 mph.

.Friday Night... Mostly clear. Low 7 below to 12 below. Wind west around 10 mph.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 10 to 15.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Snow possible. High 23 to 28. Chance of snow 40%.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. Low 10 to 15. Chance of snow 30%.

.Monday... Partly sunny. Flurries possible. High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19
Low: 1

Sunrise Friday: 7:46 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 4:53 PM CST

Tim

Harsh winter weather conditions Tonight and Thursday. Cover exposed skin if you head outdoors. Headline info. can be found on the previous blog post from earlier Today.

2012-01-18T19:03:00.000-08:00

Issued at 8:15 PM CST, Wednesday, January 18th, 2012

Bitterly cold temperatures with dangerous wind chills Tonight and Thursday
Lake effect snow with several inches of accumulation thru Thursday for Iron CO Wisconsin
Friday's snow system trends south with the latest model guidance
2 possible snow events for late this weekend and the middle of next week

Low temperature report for Wednesday, January 18th, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN: -8 degrees
International Falls, MN: -13 degrees
Brainerd, MN: -11 degrees
Hibbing, MN: -15 degrees
Hayward, WI: -14 degrees
Silver Bay, MN: -11 degrees
Orr, MN: -15 degrees
Crane Lake, MN: -13 degrees
Eveleth, MN: -13 degrees
Bigfork, MN: -15 degrees
Cook, MN: -17 degrees
Longville, MN: -15 degrees
Pine River, MN: -15 degrees
Superior, WI: -8 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN: -2 degrees
Phillips, WI: -13 degrees
3 miles east of Wright, MN: -14 degrees
Northome, MN: -14 degrees
Embarrass, MN: -18 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN: -14 degrees
Butternut, WI: -16 degrees
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI: -18 degrees
Gordon, WI: -13 degrees

Note: At 12pm CT Today it was -29 degrees at Edmonton, Alberta Canada. -28 degrees at Calgary. -30 degrees at Saskatoon. -25 degrees at Winnipeg. -19 degrees at Thunder Bay. And -28 degrees at Regina. This is the airmass that will invade Minnesota during the next 24 hours.

Weather History:

On this date in 1994: A record low temperature of -34 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 1996: 8.6" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1004mb has moved into Westcentral Lake Superior as of 8pm. An arctic front continued to push southeast and as of mid-Evening this boundary extended from Southeast Minnesota to Northern Wisconsin. A band of snow which lasts about an hour or so has been pushing east across our area during the Afternoon and Evening with new snowfall accumulations ranging from one half inch up to 2.0". Herbster, WI: 2.0". Near Bruno, MN: 2.0". Near Pillager, MN: 1.0". Once the snow stops, the northwest wind picks up and temperatures drop! Note: It was 14 degrees at Duluth, MN (6pm) which dropped to 1 degree (8pm) High temperatures Today were in the teens and 20s with single digits below and single digits above zero in far Northern Minnesota. Winds Today were out of the south, east or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A vigorous, but moisture starved storm system was moving east through the Upper Midwest, Western Ontario Province and Lake Superior per water vapor satellite imagery. 110 knot mid level jet was located in the Central Dakotas This Evening with a powerhouse 160-180 knot upper level jet stretching from Central Montana to Northern Nebraska per RUC model analysis. Arctic air was pouring into Minnesota This Evening with 850mb temperatures as of 8pm ranging from -28 degrees C in Northwest Minnesota to -10 degrees C in Southeast Minnesota.

Tonight (January 18th)

Low pressure will deepen to around 997mb as it reaches Eastern Lake Superior by dawn. An arctic front will clear Northwest Wisconsin before Midnight. Snow associated with this front will taper off from west to east in Northwest Wisconsin between 10pm-Midnight. About an inch of snow will fall in Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with isolated 2" amounts possible. A few flurries could linger until around Midnight in Northern-Eastern Minnesota. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy Tonight with frigid low temperatures in the teens and 20s below zero. Northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with occasional higher gusts will produce wind chills from 25 below to 45 below zero. Areas of blowing and drifting snow will also continue for most of the night. Note: Heavier lake effect snow showers will occur thru Thursday Morning, mainly in Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin...Snowfall accumulations of 3-6" are possible in Gile, Upson, Hurley and Montreal.

Thursday and Thursday Night (January 19th)

Arctic airmass will tighten it's grip on the Northland with high pressure building into the Upper Midwest. Partly cloudy skies are forecasted during this period with highs on Thursday ranging from zero to around 10 below with lows Thursday Night in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero. West or northwest winds are expected during this period at 10 to 15 mph. Wind chills of 20 to 45 below will likely persist into Thursday Morning.

Extended Forecast (January 20th-22nd)

Low pressure will pass well to our south from Friday into early Saturday. Snow associated with this system is expected to stay south of our area, but some flurries or a little light snow could affect portions of Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during the day Friday. It looks mainly dry Friday Night into Saturday Night, then on Sunday low pressure approaches from the west which should result in some snow breaking out in our area with some accumulations looking likely per recent model trends. High temperatures on Friday will be in the single digits below to low teens above zero. Lows Friday Night will be in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero. Highs on Saturday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Saturday Night mainly in the single digits. Highs on Sunday will be in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast (January 23rd-29th)

Low pressure exits to our east on Monday with some lingering light snow or flurries possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. We get a break on Tuesday, then another system could bring some additional snow to parts of our area for the middle of next week with maybe a third system for late next week/next weekend? Looks like the arctic air will retreat back into Western-Northern Canada during this period so we shouldn't have to deal with any bitter cold outbreaks as we close out the month of January.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Bitterly cold. Breezy with areas of blowing snow. Flurries before Midnight. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 12 below to 17 below. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Wind chills of 25 below to 35 below.

.Thursday... Frigid. Mostly sunny. High 1 below to 6 below. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Wind chills of 25 below to 35 below during the Morning.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 10 below to 15 below. Wind west at 5 to 10 mph.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 5 to 10.

.Friday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 7 below to 12 below.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 10 to 15.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. Snow possible. High 23 to 28. Chance of snow 40%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19
Low: 1

Sunrise Thursday: 7:47 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 4:52 PM CST

Tim

Bitter cold and lake effect snow! Headline information.

2012-01-18T14:16:00.000-08:00

Issued at 3:59 PM CST, Wednesday, January 18th, 2012

*EXTREME COLD WARNING*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Extreme Cold Warning is in effect from Midnight CST Tonight until Noon CST Thursday for the following Counties in Minnesota: Koochiching...Itasca...Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Central and Northern St. Louis. Some cities included in the warning are: International Falls...Bigfork...Grand Rapids...Cass Lake...Walker...Pine River...Brainerd...Aitkin...McGregor...Hill City...Hibbing...Virginia...Ely...and Crane Lake.

Discussion: Wind chill values to 40 below zero late Tonight into Thursday Morning. Frostbite times under these conditions of exposed skin of a healthy adult can occur in 15 minutes or less. Young children and the elderly are most vulnerable to the cold.

Impacts: Frostbite and prolonged exposure to these conditions can lead to hypothermia and death if not treated. Ensure that appropriate shelter for outdoor animals is available.

This extreme cold warning means dangerously cold wind chill values are expected. Frostbite and hypothermia are likely in as little as 15 minutes. If you go outdoors, take proper protection and cover exposed skin. Many deaths in these conditions occur in house fires caused by wood burning stoves and alternate heat producing devices.

*LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Lake Effect Snow Advisory is in effect from 10pm CST Tonight until Noon CST Thursday for Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin. Some cities included in the advisory are: Gile...Hurley...Upson...and Montreal.

Discussion: Lake effect snow showers will develop by mid to late Evening. Snow showers will then continue into early Thursday Afternoon. Total snowfall accumulations of 3-6" are expected in the advisory area. Visibilities will drop to one quarter mile at times due to the falling snow and winds gusting to 30 mph which will lead to considerable blowing snow. The combination of snow, wind, and falling temperatures will create hazardous road conditions through Thursday. In addition, wind chills will fall into the 20s below zero Overnight.

This lake effect snow advisory means lake effect snow is forecast that will make travel difficult in some areas. It is common for lake effect snow accumulations and snowfall rates to vary greatly over very short distances. Use caution when driving and allow extra time to reach your destination.

Tim

Snow arrives Wednesday. 1" or less for Duluth. Higher totals north and east of the city.

2012-01-17T19:03:00.000-08:00

Issued at 7:54 PM CST, Tuesday, January 17th, 2012

Mainly dry and quite cold Tonight
Somewhat warmer on Wednesday with a bit of snow
Arctic blast along with a gusty wind arrives Wednesday Night and lingers into Thursday
Two possible snow systems between Friday and Sunday

Snowfall report for Tuesday, January 17th, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Saxon, WI (Iron County) 6.1"
1 mile northeast of Mellen, WI (Ashland County) 5.0"
Hurley, WI (Iron County) 5.0"
Gile, WI (Iron County) 5.0"
4 miles northeast of Mellen, WI (Ashland County) 4.0" measured at Copper Falls State Park.
2 miles northeast of Mellen, WI (Ashland County) 2.8"
Hawthorne, WI (Douglas County) 2.3"
Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield County) 1.5"
Bayfield, WI (Bayfield County) 1.2"
Park Falls, WI (Price County) 1.2"

Snow depth report as of 6am CST Tuesday, January 17th, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN: 1.0"
International Falls, MN: 4.0"
Cass Lake, MN: 5.0"
Dixon Lake, MN: 5.0"
Northome, MN: 2.0"
Cook, MN: 4.0"
Embarrass, MN: 3.0"
Floodwood, MN: 1.0"
Grand Portage, MN: 5.0"
Kabetogama, MN: 5.0"
3 miles east of Orr, MN: 6.0"
Park Falls, WI: 10.0"
Saxon, WI: 14.0"
Upson, WI: 17.0"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI: 7.0"
Gordon, WI: 2.0"
Sarona, WI: 4.0"
Winter, WI: 8.0"

Weather Tidbits:

*160 preliminary severe weather reports from last night and Today in the U.S. 41 wind and hail reports on Monday and 119 reports so far Today. (SPC)

*6 preliminary tornado reports Today. 3 in Indiana, 2 in Mississippi with 2 injuries and 1 in Kentucky. (SPC)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Partly to mostly sunny skies were found in our area Today with high temperatures generally in the single digits and teens with a few 20s in Northwest Wisconsin. Some light snow and flurries associated with an area of low pressure well to our southeast tapered off during the Morning while heavier lake effect snow showers affected Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the north or west at 5 to around 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

West to east 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery. A strong storm system was moving into Southeast Ontario Province while a disturbance heads east across the Northern Rockies. Powerhouse jet stream of 120-160+ knots was plowing into the Northwest U.S. This Evening per RUC model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 7pm ranged from -12 degrees C in Southern Minnesota to -22 degrees C in Northwest Minnesota. Note: Even colder air with -26 to -32 degree C 850mb temperatures were found in Central and Western Canada per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 17th)

High pressure will pass through the region with clear to partly cloudy skies through Midnight with partly to mostly cloudy skies Overnight. Temperatures will bottom out in the teens and 20s below in Northern Minnesota with 10 below to single digits above zero for the rest of us. Calm to variable winds under 10 mph will become south or east after Midnight.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (January 18th)

Low pressure will track from the Northern Plains to the Lake Superior/Upper Michigan border. Light snow and flurries will affect all of our area during this period. The snow will begin in Northern Minnesota between mid-Morning and early Afternoon with snow spreading farther south/east from mid-Afternoon into early Evening. The snow won't last more than a couple hours in any given location. Snow will end from west to east by Wednesday Night. Note: Southeast winds coming off Lake Superior will likely cause some enhanced snowfall on Wednesday from Silver Bay up to Lutsen, Grand Marais and Grand Portage. Then as winds swing around to the northwest late Wednesday Night the chance for some heavier lake effect snow showers will return to the South Shore of Lake Superior from Bayfield, Ashland to Iron Counties. Highs on Wednesday will range from the single digits in far Northern Minnesota with teens and 20s elsewhere. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 20s below zero in Northern Minnesota with single digits and teens below elsewhere. Winds on Wednesday will be from the south or east at 10 to 20 mph. Winds will turn to the northwest at 10 to 25 mph for Wednesday Night.

Forecasted snowfall amounts for Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

2-4" in Northern Minnesota with the highest totals along the Minnesota-Ontario border. 1" or less south of Highway 2. The North Shore of Lake Superior from Silver Bay to Grand Portage...2-5" of snow is possible here. The South Shore of Lake Superior...Including Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin could see 2-5" of snow as well with the majority of the snow in this area occurring Wednesday Night and Thursday Morning.

Note: Dangerously cold wind chills will develop in our area Wednesday Night and Thursday. Wind chills from 20 to 40 below are forecasted to occur with wind chills as low as 45 below possible in Northern Minnesota. Frostbite times could occur in as little as 5 to 15 minutes in conditions like these.

Extended Forecast (January 19th-21st)

Coldest day of the entire winter could happen on Thursday as a strong push of arctic air pours into the Northland with 850mb temperatures of -24 to -30 degrees C. Most of our area will have high temperatures of 10 below to zero on Thursday with lows Thursday Night in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero...The coldest temperatures should be in Northern Minnesota. It looks dry on Thursday except along the South Shore of Lake Superior where some lake effect snow showers could continue. Low pressure will pass south of our area from Friday into early Saturday, this system looks like it could drop several inches of snow in the Southern half of Minnesota with light snow and flurries with minor accumulations possibly affecting locations south of Highway 2 in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Highs on Friday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Friday Night in the single digits and teens below zero with some 20s below possible in Northern Minnesota. Saturday at this time looks dry with highs in the single digits and teens.

Long Range Forecast (January 22nd-28th)

Could see another disturbance move through the area late this weekend with another minor snow event possible. Forecast becomes murky for next week with computer models changing quite a bit from one run to the next. Only thing that seems certain is that there will be no arctic air for next week, that should remain well to our northwest/north.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Clear to partly cloudy. Low 3 below to 8 below, a little warmer closer to Lake Superior. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph, becoming south toward dawn. Wind chills from 10 below to 20 below.

.Wednesday... Increasing cloudiness. Light snow and flurries possible, mainly after 3pm. High 12 to 17. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph becoming south to southwest. Chance of snow 60%.

.Wednesday Night... Breezy and very cold. Light snow and flurries mainly during the Evening. Total accumulations of 1" or less. Mostly cloudy. Low 11 below to 16 below. Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Wind chills from 25 below to 35 below. Chance of snow 60% early.

.Thursday... Very cold. Mostly sunny. High zero to 5 below.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 7 below to 12 below.

.Friday... Becoming mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 5 to 10.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible in the Evening. Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 10 to 15.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19
Low: 1

Sunrise Wednesday: 7:48 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday: 4:51 PM CST

Tim

1-2" snowfall south/east of Duluth Tonight&Tuesday AM. Several inches of lake effect snow late Tonight-Tue for Ashland&Iron Counties Wisconsin.

2012-01-16T18:28:00.000-08:00

Issued at 7:48 PM CST, Monday, January 16th, 2012

Light snow for Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota Tonight and Tuesday AM
Another weak snow event possible Wednesday-early Thursday
Cold this week with the brunt of the arctic air hitting on Thursday

Duluth Minnesota Climate Summary for January 1st-15th, 2012:

Average monthly temperature: 21.5 degrees
Departure from normal: +11.3 degrees

8 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees
4 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 40 degrees

Total precipitation: 0.08"
Departure from normal: -0.44"

Total snowfall: 1.0"
Departure from normal: -9.1"

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Partly to mostly cloudy skies were common Today with above average temperatures. Highs were in the 20s to lower 30s with north or west winds at 5 to around 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery with low pressure taking shape in the Central Plains. Lots of warm air was found east of this system Today with early Evening 850mb temperatures of +4 to +14 degrees C from Northern Illinois to Texas while arctic air was starting to drop south/east out of Central and Western Canada where 850mb temperatures ranged from -20 to -30 degrees C per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 16th)

Low pressure will remain well to our south/east. Light snow will develop Overnight in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with some flurries in Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota. Lows Tonight will range from the single digits and teens below zero in Northern Minnesota to the teens above zero in Northwest Wisconsin. Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 5 to around 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (January 17th)

Light snow will likely persist into Tuesday in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota, but the snow will be ending from west to east by mid-Morning thru early Afternoon. Some flurries are possible in Northeast Minnesota Tomorrow Morning. Highs on Tuesday will be in the single digits below to low teens above zero with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with some minus teens possible in Northern Minnesota. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted Tomorrow Night. Winds will be out of the north or west at 5 to around 20 mph. Total snowfall accumulations in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will generally be around 1" for Tonight and Tuesday Morning with isolated 2" totals possible in Northwest Wisconsin.

Note: *Lake Effect Snow Advisory* is in effect from 12am CST Tonight until 6pm CST Tuesday for Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin. Northerly winds coming off Lake Superior will cause lake effect snow showers from late Tonight through early Tuesday Evening. Some of the snow showers could be moderate to heavy at times. Total snowfall accumulations of 3-7" are possible from Ashland to High Bridge, to Mellen to Butternut, east to Upson, Gile, Montreal and Hurley. (NWS Duluth, MN)

Extended Forecast (January 18th-20th)

An area of low pressure will move across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest for Wednesday and early Thursday. This system could bring some light snow to the area with around an inch of accumulation possible. A shot of even colder air will likely follow this system for Thursday as 850mb temperatures fall into the 20s below zero C. It looks mainly dry in our area for Thursday and Friday...There will be another system that moves out into the Western High Plains late this week, but right now it looks like any snow associated with that system would remain to our south. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the teens and 20s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin to the single digits in Northern Minnesota. Highs on Thursday will range from 10 below to around 5 above zero. Highs on Friday will be in the single digits below to low teens above zero. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the single digits and teens below with some 20s below in Northern Minnesota. Lows Thursday Night will be in the teens and 20s below zero.

Long Range Forecast (January 21st-27th)

Temperatures will modify this weekend into early next week with some chillier air possibly returning the middle to end of next week. A couple low pressure systems will likely move out of the Western U.S. thru the middle of next week, however, models disagree on the timing/intensity/and tracks of these systems. Note: The GFS model from Today (12z run) was hinting at a significant rain and snow storm for Minnesota January 23rd-24th. The latest GFS run (18z) now shows a winter storm for early next week. EUROPEAN (12z run from Today) shows a slower moving system and cold enough air for a snow event in most of Minnesota for early to mid next week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Considerable cloudiness. Flurries possible Overnight. Low 1 to 6. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills from 5 below to 15 below.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. Morning flurries possible. High 6 to 11. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low zero to 5 below. Wind west around 12 mph.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Light snow and flurries possible, mainly during the Afternoon. High 13 to 18. Chance of snow 40%.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light snow and flurries possible. Low 10 below to 15 below. Chance of snow 40%.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 1 below to 4 above.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 7 below to 12 below.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 5 to 10.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19
Low: 1

Sunrise Tuesday: 7:48 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 4:49 PM CST

Tim

Milder temperatures into Sunday. Some flurries/snow showers possible Tonight.

2012-01-14T13:11:00.000-08:00

Issued at 2:32 PM CST, Saturday, January 14th, 2012

Scattered snow showers and flurries for parts of the area thru early next week
Minimal snow accumulation expected except for the North Shore
Milder temperatures into Sunday Night...Then arctic air for the rest of next week

Weather Tidbits:

*163 warm temperature records in Minnesota for the first 10 days of January (Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times)

*1,629 warm temperature records nationwide last week (Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times)

*Warmest and driest start to Janauary in history in the U.S. (NOAA)

*Warmest first 10 days in January ever measured in Minnesota history. Average statewide temperature was nearly 20 degrees above normal. 27.2 degrees versus the normal of 7.1 degrees. (Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times)

Snowfall report for Saturday, Janaury 14th, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

11 miles northeast of Grand Marais, MN (Cook County) 3.0"
4 miles northeast of Lutsen, MN (Cook County) 2.3"
Lutsen, MN (Cook County) 1.7"
5 miles north of Pillager, MN (Cass County) 1.2"
3 miles north of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County) 1.0"
3 miles northeast of Nisswa, MN (Crow Wing County) 1.0"

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A weak area of low pressure averaging 1014mb was moving into Northwest Minnesota This Afternoon. Some light snow and flurries have been occurring Today in parts of our area with accumulations of 1" or less. Southerly wind coming off Lake Superior combined with cold temperatures in place led to some heavier lake effect snow showers from Silver Bay to Lutsen to Grand Marais. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were found in our area Today with high temperatures in the teens. Note: Much warmer air moved into Western Minnesota Today where Afternoon temperatures soared into the low to mid 30s west-southwest of I94. Winds Today were out of the south or southeast at under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery well an upper level trough with strong 90-180 meter 12 hour H5 height falls head SE into the Pacific Northwest. 850mb temperatures as of 2pm ranged from -7 to -14 degrees C from Southwest to Northeast Minnesota. +2 to +6 degree C 850mb temperatures in Montana, Wyoming and the Western High Plains This Afternoon will move into parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 14th)

A weak low pressure system will remain over the Upper Midwest with pockets of light snow and flurries persisting in our area. Accumulations will only be a dusting to half inch at most. Southerly winds coming off Lake Superior will continue to produce some heavier lake effect snow showers Tonight along the North Shore of Lake Superior with 1-2" of accumulation possible, mainly from Silver Bay to Grand Marais. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits and teens with south, southwest or southeast winds at under 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (January 15th)

Low pressure will be centered to our northwest-north during this period with a cold front attached to this low heading out of the Northern Plains and through our area Sunday Night. Flurries or snow showers could occur on Sunday in far Northern Minnesota with mainly dry weather elsewhere. The chance for flurries or a little light snow will spread farther south for Sunday Night. Another inch or so of accumulation is possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior on Sunday, otherwise any snow that falls elsewhere won't add up to more than a dusting. Highs on Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Sunday Night mainly in the teens. Winds on Sunday will be out of the south or southeast at 10 to around 20 mph. Winds Sunday Night will be out of the southwest or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 16th-18th)

Low pressure will track from the Central Plains to Lake Huron during the Monday-Tuesday time frame. Light snow and flurries associated with this system will affect Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from late Monday into Tuesday Morning...Looks like about an inch of snow could accumulate in those areas. Another weak disturbance is forecasted to push across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest for next Wednesday and this could generate another dusting to 1" of snow in parts of our area. High temperatures on Monday will range from the single digits in far Northern Minnesota to the teens and 20s elsewhere. Highs on Tuesday will be in the single digits and teens with highs on Wednesday ranging from around 5 below to 10 above. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the single digits and teens below to around 10 above zero.

Long Range Forecast (January 19th-25th)

Arctic air should linger in our area late next week, although the core of the coldest air with -30 to -38 degree C 850mb temperatures looks to stay just to our north. Temperatures from next weekend into the following week (21st-25th) should moderate at least somewhat. Still looks like the Western U.S. will turn quite active with several low pressure systems during the long range period...These lows if they track far enough north could bring some measurable snow or mixed precipitation to our area. Note: The 12z EUROPEAN model shows a winter storm for the Northland during the 23rd-24th...That is a long ways off though and the computer models will likely change quite a bit before then.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Considerable cloudiness. Flurries or light snow showers possible at times. Low 7 to 12. Wind south around 10 mph.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. Flurries possible mainly early. High 26 to 31. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 10 to 15. Wind becoming west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 20 to 25.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low zero to 5 above.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 5 to 10.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. High 5 to 10. Chance of snow 30%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High: 19
Low: 1

Sunrise Sunday: 7:50 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 4:47 PM CST

Tim

MEGA snow totals east of the Twin Ports.

2012-01-13T15:01:00.000-08:00

Issued at 3:55 PM CST, Friday, January 13th, 2012

Weekend warmup on the way
Weak clipper system could drop a dusting-1" of fluffy snow on Saturday
Major shot of arctic air possible the middle of next week

Updated Lake Effect Snowfall Totals for the South Shore of Lake Superior
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Gile, WI (Iron County) 34.0"
Saxon, WI (Iron County) 20.0"
Hurley, WI (Iron County) 19.0"
Montreal, WI (Iron County) 16.0"
Upson, WI (Iron County) 15.5"
2 miles north of Mellen, WI (Ashland County) 13.0"

Weather Tidbits:

*49% of the Upper Midwest is covered by snow as of January 13th. This is up from 4% on January 8th. (NOHRSC)

*2 consecutive days (January 12th-13th) with a below average temperature at Duluth, Minnesota. 1st time this has happened since December 8th-9th.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

The heavy lake effect snow which hit parts of Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin during the past 24 hours was starting to subside This Afternoon, but some scattered snow showers continued from Douglas County, east to Iron County. The rest of our area was generally dry Today under partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. Highs were in the single digits and teens with variable winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a NW 500mb flow across the Upper Midwest with a couple of disturbances dropping SE out of Saskatchewan and Ontario Province. 850mb temperatures as of 3pm ranged from -16 degrees C in Northeast Minnesota to -8 degrees C in extreme Southwest Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 13th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover our area. Scattered snow showers and flurries will end before Midnight along the South Shore of Lake Superior with an additional 1-2" of accumulation is possible. Some light snow and flurries should spread into Western parts of our area Overnight with a dusting to 1/2" of accumulation possible from the Brainerd Lakes to Cass Lake to International Falls. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits below to low teens above zero with some teens below possible in the Arrowhead. Light and variable winds will become south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (January 14th)

Weak area of low pressure will head into the Upper Midwest which will lead to some light snow and flurries with accumulations generally ranging from a dusting to around 1" at most...The exception to this might be along the North Shore of Lake Superior where a period of lake effect/enhanced snowfall could occur with 1-3" of accumulations in Lake and Cook Counties. Highs on Saturday will be in the teens and 20s along with mostly cloudy skies. Lows Saturday Night will be in the single digits and teens with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds during this period will be out of the south or west at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 15th-17th)

One area of low pressure will move through Ontario Province from Sunday into Monday while another low heads E-NE out of the Central Plains to east of Chicago, Illinois during the Monday-Tuesday time period. Flurries or light snow showers are possible at times from Sunday through Tuesday, but no significant accumulations are expected at this time. High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Sunday Night in the teens and 20s. Highs on Monday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Monday Night in the single digits and teens below zero in Northern Minnesota to low teens above zero in Northwest Wisconsin. Highs on Tuesday will range from zero to around 10 above.

Long Range Forecast (January 18th-24th)

A dose of arctic air is forecasted to seep into the Northland next Wednesday and Thursday. 850mb temperatures per GFS model are as low as -25 to -30 degrees C during the middle of next week which could result in daytime highs struggling to get out of the single digits below zero in parts of our area. After the middle of next week it appears that the core of the arctic air will settle into Westcentral Canada and Pacific Northwest while a strong near zonal flow develops across the U.S... We should be done with the arctic air after the middle of next week as long as the jet does not buckle at all. Should the jet amplify a bit, then we would be vulnerable to get more bouts of arctic air since it will not be too far away from the Upper Midwest. Looks like the pattern will become more active in the Northwest/Western U.S. for the rest of January. Several lows should come out into the Plains during the long range period and any one of those lows if they track far enough north could bring some measurable snow or possibly even some mixed precipitation to our area.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 3 to 8. Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Saturday... Snow showers or flurries possible. Snow accumulations less than 1". Considerable cloudiness. High 17 to 22. Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 40%.

.Saturday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 10 to 15. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 20 to 25.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low zero to 5 above.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 5 to 10.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19
Low: 1

Sunrise Saturday: 7:50 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:45 PM CST

Tim

Parts of the South Shore of Lake Superior is getting pasted by SNOW! 20" so far at Gile, WI.

2012-01-12T18:54:00.000-08:00

Issued at 7:49 PM CST, Thursday, January 12th, 2012

Parts of the South Shore of Lake Superior getting buried by snow Tonight
Cold and windy elsewhere with some flurries Tonight
A weak clipper arrives on Saturday
Arctic air next week?

Snowfall report for Thursday, January 12th, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Gile, WI (Iron County) 20.3"
Hurley, WI (Iron County) 10.0"
2 miles north of Mellen, WI (Ashland County) 6.5"
1 mile west-southwest of Saxon, WI (Iron County) 5.7"
Upson, WI (Iron County) 5.0"
Montreal, WI (Iron County) 4.0"
6 miles south-southeast of Ashland, WI (Ashland County) 4.0"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI (Bayfield County) 4.0"
Mellen, WI (Ashland County) 4.0"
4 miles west of Washburn, WI (Bayfield County) 3.7"
8 miles south of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County) 3.5"
Prentice, WI (Price County) 3.0"
3 miles west of Phillips, WI (Price County) 2.5"
3 miles west of Butternut, WI (Ashland County) 2.5"
Stone Lake, WI (Washburn County) 2.1"
Winter, WI (Sawyer County) 1.4"

Weather Tidbits:

*Today's high temperature of 8 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota was the coldest maximum temperature since February 26th when it was 3 degrees.

Weather History:

On this date in 1987: A record high temperature of 45 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 992mb was centered in Eastern Michigan with high pressure of 1020-1022mb extending from North Dakota to Manitoba Province. Several inches of wind driven snow occurred Today in Sawyer and Price Counties Wisconsin due to the low in Michigan. N-NW winds and plenty of cold air rushing over the open waters of Lake Superior led to a heavy lake effect snow event Today in Iron County Wisconsin with significant snowfall amounts also occurring in portions of Ashland and Bayfield Counties. The remainder of our area saw some flurries and light snow showers at times. Skies were mostly cloudy Today with highs in the single digits and teens which is about 5-10 degrees below average. North or northwest winds at 10 to 25 mph produced wind chills of 5 above to 20 below.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A strong storm system was moving N/NE across the Ohio Valley while an upper level trough covered parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. 850mb temperatures as of 7pm were around -14 degrees C in Minnesota per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 12th)

Snow associated with the Michigan low will continue to affect portions of Sawyer and all of Price Counties Wisconsin, including the Cities of Park Falls, Phillips, Prentice, Ogema and Winter. The snow should begin to taper off after 2-3am Friday. Lake effect snow which will be heavy at times will persist through the night along the South Shore of Lake Superior with the greatest accumulations expected to be in Ashland and Iron Counties. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with scattered flurries/light snow showers elsewhere. Lows will range from 10 above to 10 below with some 15 to 20 below readings possible in Northern Minnesota. Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 25 mph. Wind chills will range from zero to 25 below.

Note:
*Winter Storm Warning* remains in effect for Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin until 10am CST Friday.

*Lake Effect Snow Advisory* continues for Bayfield County Wisconsin until 10am CST Friday.

*Winter Weather Advisory* continues for Price County Wisconsin until 12am CST Tonight.

Total snowfall accumulations by Friday Morning:

3-6" for Price and Bayfield Counties Wisconsin.
6-12" in Ashland and Iron Counties with localized amounts up to 24" in Iron County.

Friday and Friday Night (January 13th)

Lake effect snow showers will continue along the South Shore of Lake Superior on Friday, but the intensity of the snow should start to diminish by the Afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted during this period with light snow and flurries moving into Western parts of our area by Friday Night as low pressure approaches from the northwest. Highs on Friday will range from zero to around 15 above with lows Friday Night in the single digits below to around 10 above zero. Winds will be out of the northwest on Friday and the south or west on Friday Night. Wind speeds will vary between 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 14th-16th)

Weak area of low pressure will drop S/SE through the Upper Midwest on Saturday. Could see some snow showers and flurries with up to 1" of fluffy snow in parts of our area on Saturday. Looks dry Saturday Night through Sunday Night, although some flurries can't be ruled out in Northern Minnesota during that period. Low pressure will pass by to our north for Sunday and Monday while another low heads E-NE out of the Central Plains early next week. A cold front will connect the two lows with that boundary moving southeast and through our local area on Monday. Snow showers or flurries are possible in the Northland early next week, but no big accumulations are expected at this time. High temperatures from Saturday through Monday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the single digits and teens.

Long Range Forecast (January 17th-23rd)

Brutally cold air with 850mb temperatures from -30 to -38 degrees C will cover Western-Central Canada most of next week with the southern flank of this arctic air possibly affecting parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest from mid to late next week. The only thing that will keep the core of the coldest air to our north will be the jet stream which is expected to go from west to east, but any buckle in the jet stream would result in the core of the arctic air pushing into our area some time next week. A couple of low pressure systems should move along the intensifying baroclinic zone and if these lows move far enough north, then we could be dealing with some snow events during this forecast period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Breezy and cold. Mostly cloudy. Flurries. Low 3 below to 2 above but a little warmer closer to Lake Superior. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Wind chills from 10 below to 20 below.

.Friday... Cold. Partly cloudy. High 7 to 12. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low zero to 5 above. Wind west around 12 mph.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. High 15 to 20. Chance of snow 30%.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 3 to 8.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 20 to 25.

.Sunday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19
Low: 1

Sunrise Friday: 7:51 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 4:44 PM CST

Tim

A rare sight in Duluth early Today...RAIN in January! Cold has returned, but still little to no snow in the Twin Ports.

2012-01-11T18:50:00.000-08:00

Issued at 7:50 PM CST, Wednesday, January 11th, 2012

Colder and quite windy thru early Friday
Significant lake effect snow for the South Shore of Lake Superior Tonight-Friday
Flurries and snow showers thru Thursday for the rest of us

*Record High Temperature Report from Tuesday, January 10th, 2012*
Source: Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times.

Duluth, MN: 47 degrees. Previous record: 42 degrees set in 1928.
St. Cloud, MN: 52 degrees. Previous record: 49 degrees set in 1990.
Redwood Falls, MN: 57 degrees. Previous record: 52 degrees set in 1990.
Mankato, MN: 54 degrees. Previous record: 49 degrees set in 2002.
Alexandria, MN: 50 degrees. Previous record: 47 degrees set in 1990.
Eau Claire, WI: 53 degrees. Previous record: 45 degrees set in 1980.

Weather Tidbits:

*As of January 10th: 3rd longest stretch of days in Duluth, Minnesota with a temperature warmer than -4 degrees since temperature records began in 1874. (NWS Duluth)

*361 days=The last time we had a 4.0" snowfall in a single day at Duluth, Minnesota.

Snowfall report for Wednesday, January 11th, 2012
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota

25 miles northwest of Grand Marais, MN (Cook County) 2.0" measured at Golden Eagle Lodge
Lutsen, MN (Cook County) 1.5"
Ash Lake, MN (St. Louis County) 1.5"
Ely, MN (St. Louis County) 1.2"
Hawthorne, WI (Douglas County) 0.8"
5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 0.8" measured at the NWS.
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County) 0.6"
2 miles southwest of Proctor, MN (St. Louis County) 0.5"

High temperature report for Tuesday, January 10th, 2012
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota

*=record high temperature for the date

Duluth, MN: *47 degrees
International Falls, MN: *41 degrees
Brainerd, MN: *52 degrees
Hibbing, MN: 46 degrees
Ashland, WI: 52 degrees
Hayward, WI: 50 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN: 46 degrees
Two Harbors, MN: 48 degrees
Silver Bay, MN: 48 degrees
Bigfork, MN: 45 degrees
Grand Rapids, MN: 46 degrees
Aitkin, MN: 48 degrees
Moose Lake, MN: 50 degrees
Hinckley, MN: 50 degrees
Superior, WI: 48 degrees
Siren, WI: 50 degrees
Phillips, WI: 48 degrees
7 miles northwest of Brainerd, MN: 54 degrees
Cass Lake, MN: 47 degrees
Gurney, WI: 50 degrees
Madeline Island, WI: 52 degrees
Gordon, WI: 51 degrees

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1002mb was centered in Eastern Wisconsin with a 998mb low in Southeast Indiana early This Evening. A surface trough was located in Southern Ontario Province. The big story of the day was the strong cold air advection which overtook the majority of the area from northwest to southeast. Temperatures were in the 30s and low 40s early in the day, but temperatures dropped into the single digits, teens and 20s during the Afternoon. Note: At 2pm Today temperatures ranged from 54 degrees at Milwaukee to 32 degrees at Duluth to 12 degrees at International Falls. Mostly cloudy skies covered our area with light snow and flurries which started out as some light rain and drizzle, especially near Lake Superior and in Northwest Wisconsin.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level trough with 60-120 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls digging south/east out of the Northern Plains while a strong upper level low lifts N/NE into the Ohio Valley. Cold air has been rushing into the Upper Midwest This Afternoon with 850mb temperatures as of 7pm ranging from -20 degrees C in far Northwest Minnesota to -2 degrees C in far Southeast Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

...Headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota...

*Winter Storm Warning* for Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin until 10am CST Friday. Some cities included in the warning: Gile...Hurley...and Upson. Lake effect snow showers, heavy at times are likely into Friday Morning. Total snowfall accumulations of 6-12" are expected with locally higher amounts possible. North to northwest winds gusting to 25 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

*Lake Effect Snow Advisory* for Bayfield and Ashland Counties in Northwest Wisconsin until 10am CST Friday. Some cities included in the advisory: Port Wing...Iron River...Grand View...Bayfield...Cable...Ashland...High Bridge...Clam Lake...Glidden...and Butternut. Lake effect snow showers will occur at times through Friday Morning. Total snowfall accumulations will range from 2-6" with locally higher amounts possible. North to northwest winds gusting to 25 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

*Winter Weather Advisory* for Price County in Northwest Wisconsin until Midnight CST Thursday Night. Some cities included in the advisory: Park Falls...Phillips...and Ogema. Periods of snow are expected through Thursday Night. Total snowfall accumulations of 2-5". North to northwest winds gusting to 25 mph causing areas of blowing and drifting snow.

Tonight (January 11th)

Low pressure will be centered well to our southeast while an upper level low and upper trough move into the Upper Midwest. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with some flurries and snow showers. Accumulations outside of the South Shore of Lake Superior will be under 1". Lows Tonight will range from the teens in Northwest Wisconsin to between 10 below and 5 above zero in Northern Minnesota. Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to around 25 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (January 12th)

Low pressure will move slowly into the Michigan with an upper level low/trough covering the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Some flurries and snow showers should continue on Thursday in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with accumulations of 1" or less...Heavier lake effect snow is expected during this period along the South Shore of Lake Superior with several inches of snow also affecting Price County Wisconsin. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted with highs on Thursday ranging from around zero to 20 above with lows Thursday Night ranging from the 10 below to 10 above zero with some 20s below possible in Northern Minnesota. Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 13th-15th)

A weak clipper will pass west-south of our area from late Friday into Saturday. Could see some flurries or snow showers with minimal accumulations in parts of our area Friday Night-Saturday with that clipper. Otherwise the weekend looks generally dry. Highs on Friday will be in the single digits and teens with highs on Saturday in the teens with highs on Sunday in the teens and 20s. Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the single digits and teens below to around 10 above zero.

Long Range Forecast (January 16th-22nd)

There will be a ton of arctic air bottled up just to our northwest-north during this forecast period. There are signs that some of that arctic air will seep down into our area, but for only a brief period of time. One such arctic blast could occur early next week with another one possibly toward the end of next week. A strengthening baroclinic zone (temperature gradient) looks to develop across the U.S. with a couple of low pressure systems heading out of the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies. These lows will have to be watched since they could produce some measurable snowfall, however, it's uncertain how those lows will track and whether or not they would have any impact on our local area.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Breezy and colder. Variable cloudiness. Flurries. Low 3 to 8. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills from zero to 15 below.

.Thursday... Breezy and colder. Snow showers or flurries at times. Considerable cloudiness. High 8 to 13. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night... Becoming partly cloudy. Low 5 below to 10 below. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 5 to 10.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low zero to 5 below.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. High 10 to 15. Chance of snow 20%.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 3 to 8.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 17 to 23.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19
Low: 1

Sunrise Thursday: 7:51 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 4:43 PM CST

Tim

Winter returns Wednesday and Thursday.

2012-01-10T15:24:00.000-08:00

Issued at 3:45 PM CST, Tuesday, January 10th, 2012

Stays mild thru Wednesday Morning
Colder temperatures and gusty winds develop Wednesday Afternoon thru Friday
Some snow expected late Tonight thru early Friday

Weather Tidbits:

*More snow has fallen so far this season at Midland, Texas compared to Duluth, Minnesota. 19.5" of snow at Midland, TX versus 12.0" at Duluth, MN.

*2,034 record high temperatures in the U.S. from January 2nd-9th (NOAA)

*Thru the first 10 days of January...6 of them have had a high temperature of at least 32 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota. 4 days have been at or above 40 degrees.

*Record Event*
Most number of January days with a high temperature of at least 45 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota (NWS Duluth)

Today, January 10th marks the 4th time this month that the high temperature has reached at least 45 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota. This is the most ever in recorded weather history. The previous record was 3 days set in 1877.

Dry trend continues in the Twin Ports.

Precipitation total since December 1st: 0.56". Last year at this time: 2.15"
Snowfall total since December 1st: 8.3". Last year at this time: 19.5"
Seasonal snowfall total: 12.0". Last year at this time: 55.1".

Note: Average snowfall thru January 9th: 39.8". Were 27.8" below average.

Snowfall total so far this month (ending on the 9th) 0.2" which is 5.8" below average.

High temperature report for January 9th, 2012
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota

*=record high temperature for the date

Duluth, MN: *45 degrees
International Falls, MN: 41 degrees
Brainerd, MN: 48 degrees
Grand Marais, MN: 43 degrees
Hibbing, MN: 44 degrees
Ashland, WI: 47 degrees
Hayward, WI: 43 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN: 46 degrees
Two Harbors, MN: 46 degrees
Silver Bay, MN: 46 degrees
Orr, MN: 41 degrees
Bigfork, MN: 45 degrees
Grand Rapids, MN: 45 degrees
Longville, MN: 46 degrees
Pine River, MN: 46 degrees
Aitkin, MN: 48 degrees
Hinckley, MN: 48 degrees
Superior, WI: 48 degrees
Phillips, WI: 45 degrees

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Widespread 40s across the area Today with lower 50s from Brainerd and Hinckley, east into Northwest Wisconsin. These high temperatures are some 25 to around 35 degrees above average for this time of year. Partly cloudy to sunny skies prevailed Today with winds from the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough was digging S/E out of the Pacific Northwest while an upper level low heads east-northeast across Northeast Texas per water vapor satellite imagery. A westerly flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis with one last day of unseasonably warm air in our area. 850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from +3 to +9 degrees C in Minnesota while colder air begins to push into Montana where 850mb temperatures were as low as -6 degrees C (northern part of the state) to -12 degrees C in Central Alberta Province.

Note: Record highs were broken or tied at Duluth and International Falls, Minnesota Today.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 10th)

A cold front will move southeast and through our area during the night. Light snow and flurries will overspread the Northern half of Minnesota Tonight with up to 1" of accumulation possible by dawn from International Falls and Bigfork down toward Cass Lake and Walker. The rest of our area should remain dry Tonight. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be out of the south, east or northwest at under 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (January 11th)

Low pressure will move off to our east while an upper level low/upper trough digs slowly south/east into the Upper Midwest through this period. Should be able to get some light snow and snow showers through Wednesday Night with snowfall accumulations ranging from a dusting to 1" with some locations possibly getting up to 2" of snow by Wednesday Night...The most favored areas to see the 2" amounts would be in Northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Mostly cloudy skies are forecasted during this period with highs Tomorrow starting out in the 20s and 30s with falling temperatures into the teens and 20s by the Afternoon. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits below to low teens above zero. Winds will become northwest at 10 to 25 mph during this period. Note: Some blowing and drifting snow could develop in spots Wednesday and Wednesday Night.

Extended Forecast (January 12th-14th)

Surface and upper level low will deepen across the Central-Eastern Great Lakes on Thursday and Friday while an upper level trough covers the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes thru Friday. Areas of light snow and flurries should continue in our area on Thursday with 1-2" of additional accumulation possible in Northwest Wisconsin and Arrowhead of Minnesota with <1" elsewhere. Colder air will move into the region late this week as 850mb temperatures drop to between -15 and -22 degrees C. Highs from Thursday thru Saturday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night ranging from 10 below to 10 above zero with some spots up North as cold as 20 below especially on Thursday Night. Looks like a weak clipper will drop down into the Upper Midwest on Saturday with some flurries or snow showers possible in our area, right now this doesn't look like a big deal. Maybe a half inch of snow at best.

Total snowfall accumulations from Tonight-Thursday Night:

2-4" in Northwest Wisconsin..Outside of the Southshore snowbelts.
1-3" in Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead.
Around 1" for Eastcentral Minnesota.

The Southshore of Lake Superior from Bayfield to Ashland to Iron Counties have the potential to get 4-8" of snow as heavier lake effect/enhanced snow showers develop late Wednesday Night and continue into Friday Morning.

Long Range Forecast (January 15th-21st)

Arctic air will play cat and mouse with the Northland during the 3rd week of January as a zonal flow develops. Any buckle in the jet stream would allow a chunk of arctic air to descend into our area and this is a possibility for sometime mid-late next week per EURO model (00z&12z runs) Otherwise it looks cooler during this period with no more record warmth anytime soon. Might see a couple low pressure systems track out of the Pacific Northwest during this period which could bring some light snow to parts of the Upper Midwest, but no big snow events are anticipated at this time.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Increasing cloudiness. Low 25 to 30. Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming variable.

.Wednesday... Light snow and flurries at times. Accumulations less than 1". Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35 early with temperatures falling to around 20 degrees by late Afternoon. Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 60%.

.Wednesday Night... Colder. Mostly cloudy with light snow and flurries. Accumulations under 1". Low zero to 5 above. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 40%.

.Thursday... Colder. Mostly cloudy. Flurries. High 5 to 10.

.Thursday Night... Variable cloudiness. Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 8 to 13.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low zero to 5 below.

.Saturday... Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. High 10 to 15. Chance of snow 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High: 19
Low: 1

Sunrise Wednesday: 7:52 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday: 4:42 PM CST

Tim

It sure looks and feels like spring. More records could fall on Tuesday.

2012-01-09T14:39:00.000-08:00

Issued at 3:40 PM CST, Monday, January 9th, 2012

Unseasonably warm thru early Wednesday..more record highs possible on Tuesday
Colder temperatures for mid-late week with a bit of snow
No long lasting arctic blasts or major storms thru next week

*RECORD EVENT*

Record High Temperature broken Today at Duluth, Minnesota. High temperature was 45 degrees. The previous record high was 42 degrees set in 2002.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Another day with very warm temperatures. Highs were in the upper 30s in far Northern Minnesota with 40s elsewhere. Superior, Brainerd and Aitkin were even close to 50 degrees at 3pm Today. Partly cloudy to sunny skies were found across our area with some early Morning ice pellets/snow showers in Northeast Minnesota. Winds were out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Note: High temperatures were in the 50s Today across much of Southwest Minnesota. Some of the warmer temperatures late This Afternoon include 55 degrees at Redwood Falls and 54 degrees at New Ulm, Benson, Appleton and Madison.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A strong 500mb low in Western Texas was churning slowly toward the E-NE per water vapor satellite imagery. This low is bringing some significant snowfall to parts of West Texas Today. A northwest upper level flow continued to cover the Upper Midwest with 850mb temperatures as of 3pm ranging from zero to -2 degrees C in Northeast Minnesota to +6 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 9th)

Quiet night ahead under clear to partly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the 20s with some teens in Northern Minnesota. Winds will shift from the west-northwest to the south at under 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (January 10th)

Another mild day on Tuesday with highs in the 30s and 40s. Record highs for Tuesday include 42 degrees at Duluth and 39 degrees at International Falls. Partly to mostly sunny skies are forecasted Tomorrow with winds out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph. A cold front will head southeast across our area Tuesday Night with some flurries possible mainly in Western areas. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with southwest or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 11th-13th)

An upper level low and upper trough will dig into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes from Wednesday into Thursday. Light snow and flurries will likely fall at times, but accumulations should be on the light side with most spots only picking up a dusting to an inch at best. Much colder air will pour into our area on Wednesday with the peak of this cold snap taking place on Thursday when 850mb temperatures plummate to -18 to -24 degrees C per recent model data. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s with falling temperatures in Northern Minnesota. Highs on Thursday will range from around zero to 15 above with highs on Friday in the single digits and teens. Low temperatures Wednesday Night will be in the single digits below to low teens above zero. Lows Thursday Night will range from around 25 below to zero. Note: Lake effect snow showers should develop late Wednesday Night into early Friday along the South Shore of Lake Superior with at least a couple inches of accumulation looking like a pretty good bet.

Long Range Forecast (January 14th-20th)

West-northwest upper level flow should continue through this period. The brunt of the arctic air will remain to our north, but our area could get a couple glancing blows with arctic airmasses. No major storms are expected, but a few clippers could pass through our area with a dusting of snow every now and then.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Mostly clear. Low 24 to 29. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming southwest.

.Tuesday... Mild. Partly cloudy. Record or near record warmth possible. High 38 to 43. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming west to northwest.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Light snow and flurries. High 30 to 35 with slowly falling temperatures. Chance of snow 40%.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries. Colder. Low zero to 5 above.

.Thursday... Colder. Mostly cloudy. Flurries. High 5 to 10.

.Thursday Night... Variable cloudiness. Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 8 to 13.

Normal temperatures for Today

High: 19 degrees
Low: 2 degrees

Sunrise Tuesday: 7:52 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 4:40 PM CST

Tim

Very warm thru Tuesday. Little bit of snow, some wind and colder mid-late week.

2012-01-08T17:54:00.000-08:00

Issued at 7:27 PM CST, Sunday, January 8th, 2012

Warm temperatures continue into early Wednesday
Record or near record highs possible on Monday
Midweek snow chance followed by an arctic blast

Weather History:

On this date in 2003: A record high temperature of 48 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A stationary front was along the Ontario-Minnesota border This Afternoon. Our area was south of this front (warm sector) with partly to mostly sunny skies, southwest winds and well above average temperatures. Highs Today were generally in the middle to upper 30s with wind speeds of 10 to around 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest with an upper level disturbance heading southeast out of Manitoba Province per water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 7pm ranged from -8 degrees C in Northeast Minnesota to zero degrees C in the Central Dakotas to +6 degrees C in Northern Montana. Note: The next chinook event is well underway in the Northern Rockies Today and this warmth will spread into the Upper Midwest for Monday and Tuesday.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 8th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with some snow showers and flurries possible late mainly north of Highway 2. A dusting to half inch of snow could accumulate Overnight in far Northern-far Northeast Minnesota. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s with some teens in the Arrowhead. Winds will be out of the southwest or south at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night (January 9th)

Low pressure and upper level disturbance will exit to the east during this period. Snow showers or flurries could linger into Tomorrow Morning in Northeast Minnesota, otherwise it looks this period with mild temperatures. Highs on Monday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Monday Night in the 20s. Winds will be out of the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Note: Record high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota is 42 degrees on Monday (set in 2002) this record could be tied or broken.

Extended Forecast (January 10th-12th)

Warm temperatures will continue on Tuesday with dry weather and highs in the 30s and 40s. A cold front will move through our area Tuesday Night and Wednesday while an upper level low/trough dig south/east out of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes for Wednesday and Thursday. Looks like will see some light snow and flurries from late Tuesday Night into Thursday, but accumulations should remain on the light side the way it looks now..The exception to this might be along the South Shore of Lake Superior where heavier lake effect snow showers could develop especially by Wednesday Night into Thursday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s with falling temperatures in Northern Minnesota. Highs on Thursday will range from around zero to 10 above. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the single digits below to low teens above zero.

Long Range Forecast (January 13th-19th)

West-northwest upper level flow should continue during this period. Chances for a significant storm is on the low side with this type of 500mb pattern, but we could see an occasional clipper move through the Upper Midwest bringing some light snow to the area. It does look cooler during the long range, but nothing out of the ordinary for mid-January.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 23 to 28. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Mild. Record or near record warmth. Partly cloudy. High 37 to 42. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Mild. Partly cloudy. High 40 to 45.

.Tuesday Night... Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Light snow and flurries. High 30 to 35 with slowly falling temperatures. Chance of snow 40%.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries. Colder. Low zero to 5 above.

.Thursday... Colder. Mostly cloudy. Flurries. High 5 to 10.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19 degrees
Low: 2 degrees

Sunrise Monday: 7:52 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 4:39 PM CST

Tim

A light dusting of snow Tonight. Get ready for more very warm temperatures next Monday and Tuesday.

2012-01-07T14:20:00.000-08:00

Issued at 3:08 PM CST, Saturday, January 7th, 2012

A light dusting of snow possible Tonight
Unseasonably warm early next week, more records may be broken
Snow chances and turning colder, but nothing out of the ordinary mid/late next week

January is off to a very warm start
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota

The following is the average temperature from January 1st-6th and the departure from average.

Duluth, Minnesota:

22.5 degees/+12.0 degrees

Twin Cities, Minnesota:

27.9 degrees/+11.9 degrees

International Falls, Minnesota:

20.0 degrees/+15.5 degrees

St. Cloud, Minnesota:

26.0 degrees/+14.0 degrees

High temperature report for Friday, January 6th, 2012
Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN: 45 degrees
Brainerd, MN: 46 degrees
Grand Marais, MN: 44 degrees
Hibbing, MN: 42 degrees
Ashland, WI: 43 degrees
Hayward, WI: 45 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN: 45 degrees
Two Harbors, MN: 45 degrees
Bigfork, MN: 45 degrees
Grand Rapids, MN: 45 degrees
Longville, MN: 46 degrees
Pine River, MN: 46 degrees
Aitkin, MN: 46 degrees
Moose Lake, MN: 46 degrees
Superior, WI: 45 degrees
Phillips, WI: 46 degrees
Siren, WI: 45 degrees
Floodwood, MN: 40 degrees
Butternut, WI: 40 degrees
Gurney, WI: 42 degrees
Upson, WI: 43 degrees
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI: 42 degrees

Weather History:

On this date in 2003: A record high temperature of 46 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Mostly sunny skies prevailed in Cass and Crow Wing Counties Today and this allowed temperatures to soar into the 30s to around 40 degrees. Mostly cloudy skies prevailed elsewhere with cooler, but still above average temperatures in the 20s and 30s. There's been some patchy flurries and light freezing drizzle in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today, but little if any accumulation has occurred. Winds Today were out from the west at under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

West-northwest 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 3pm ranged from -3 degrees C in Western Minnesota to -10 degrees C in far Northeast Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 7th)

A weak wave will drop through the Northland bringing with it some snow showers and flurries with patchy light freezing drizzle even possible. A dusting to half inch of snow accumulation is possible Tonight along and north of Highway 2. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted with lows in the teens and 20s. Winds will be out of the south or west under 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (January 8th)

Mild temperatures can be expected during this period with westerly winds and a lack of snow cover which combined with some sunshine on Sunday should allow temperatures to get into the 30s for most areas with some 40s even possible around the Brainerd Lakes. Lows Sunday Night will be in the teens and 20s with partly cloudy skies. South or west winds are expected this period at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 9th-11th)

The big story will be the high temperatures on Monday and Tuesday as another round of unseasonable warmth pushes into the Upper Midwest. Latest model gudiance shows 850mb temperatures topping out around +6 degrees C early next week and this plus little to no snow on the ground combined with a westerly wind should cause temperatures to take off. Widespread 30s and 40s are expected in our area next Monday and Tuesday and it's not out of the question that a few spots make a run at 50 degrees. Low pressure will pass to our north on Wednesday while an upper level low/trough digs south and east out of the Northern Plains. Looks like will see a little bit of snow/flurry activity move into our area on Wednesday, but accumulations look to be on the light side. Highs on Wednesday will be cooler, but still above average with highs in the 20s and 30s. Low temperatures Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees.

Long Range Forecast (January 12th-18th)

A brief cold snap for late next week, but right now it doesn't look like it will be that extreme, probably will be similar to the blast of cold air we had last Sunday and Monday. After late next week it looks like we warm up once (January 14th-18th time frame) No big storms and no persistent arctic air masses pretty much sums up the long range, more or less a continuation of what we have seen since November.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Considerable cloudiness. Snow showers and flurries possible at times. Patchy light freezing drizzle also possible. Low 17 to 22. Wind west around 12 mph.

.Sunday... Partly to mostly sunny. High 30 to 35. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind southwest around 12 mph.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 39 to 44.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 38 to 43.

.Tuesday Night... Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. High 30 to 35 with slowly falling temperatures. Chance of snow 30%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High: 19 degrees
Low: 2 degrees

Sunrise Sunday: 7:53 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 4:38 PM CST

Tim

Warmer than normal thru early next week. Light dusting of snow possible Tonight.

2012-01-06T14:58:00.000-08:00

Issued at 3:40 PM CST, Friday, January 6th, 2012

Slightly cooler, but still above average this weekend
Very mild temperatures for early next week
Scattered flurries/snow showers Tonight and Saturday
Possible arctic blast middle/end of next week with some snow?

Weather Tidbits:

*At 4am CST Today, the temperature was between 39-43 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota. Our average low for Today is 2 degrees.

*336 high temperature records (preliminary number) in 21 states on January 5th according to a report from NOAA.

*Around 1,225: The number of record high temperatures in the U.S. since December 29th. (Jim Cantore. TWC)

*98% of the U.S. was above freezing on Thursday. (MPR)

*99.5% of the Upper Midwest was covered by snow at this time last year versus just 4.2% this year. (NOHRSC)

*44.9% of the U.S. was covered by snow at this time last year versus just 16.3% this year. (NOHRSC)

High temperature report for Thursday, January 5th, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Note: *=record high temperature for the 5th of January.

Duluth, MN: *48 degrees
International Falls, MN: *46 degrees
Brainerd, MN: *51 degrees
Hibbing, MN: *47 degrees
Ashland, WI: 46 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN: 46 degrees
Two Harbors, MN: 48 degrees
Orr, MN: 46 degrees
Bigfork, MN: 50 degrees
Grand Rapids, MN: 52 degrees
Longville, MN: 54 degrees
Pine River, MN: 54 degrees
Aitkin, MN: 54 degrees
Moose Lake, MN: 52 degrees
Cloquet, MN: 50 degrees
McGregor, MN: 52 degrees
Superior, WI: 48 degrees
Cass Lake, MN: 56 degrees
Northome, MN: 52 degrees
Floodwood, MN: 50 degrees
Gurney, WI: 46 degrees
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI: 48 degrees
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI: 46 degrees

*Record Event*

All-time record high temperature for the month of January at Aberdeen, South Dakota on January 5th, 2012. The high temperature was 63 degrees which broke the previous all-time warmest January temperature of 60 degrees which was set on January 24th, 1981. (NWS Aberdeen, SD)

Quick facts:

*48 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota on January 5th ties for 5th warmest January temperature ever recorded.

*46 degrees at International Falls, Minnesota on January 5th ties for 4th warmest January temperature ever recorded.

*51 degrees at Brainerd, Minnesota on January 5th ties for 7th warmest January temperature ever recorded.

*Record Event for January 6th, 2012*

Record high temperature of 45 degrees Today at Duluth, Minnesota. The previous record high was 40 degrees set in 1961, 1933 and 1928. (NWS Duluth, MN)

Weather History:

On this date in 1994: 16.3" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date last year: The high was 7 and the low was -3 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 998mb has moved into Eastern Ontario Province late This Afternoon with a cold front along the Ontario-Minnesota border. Another unseasonably warm day out ahead of this front with highs in the 40s in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota with 30s in Northern Minnesota. Winds Today were from the southwest or northwest at 10 to around 25 mph. Partly to mostly cloudy skies covered our area Today with some late Afternoon showers of snow and rain in Northern Minnesota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough with it's 60-90 meter 12 hour H5 height falls was heading E/SE into the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis. The amazingly warm 850mb temperatures and incredibly high heights for this time of year are falling as a shot of cooler air pushes into the Upper Midwest. 850mb temperatures as of 3pm ranged from -6 degrees C in Northwest Minnesota to +2 to +4 degrees C in Southern Minnesota. 500mb heights as of 3pm ranged from 5460 in Southern Minnesota to 5280-5340 in Northern Minnesota. Note: On Thursday, 500mb heights ranged from 5560 to 5700 which is very unusual for this time of year.

Tonight through Saturday Night (January 6th-7th)

A frontal boundary will be nearly stationary along the Minnesota-Ontario border with high pressure centers to our north and south. A few disturbances will drop southeast through our area Tonight and Tomorrow with some flurries or snow showers scattered around the area. Only a dusting to half inch of accumulation is expected though with most locations not getting any accumulation. Low temperatures Tonight and Saturday Night will be in the teens and 20s with some single digits possible Saturday Night in Northern Minnesota. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s.

Extended Forecast (January 8th-10th)

Sunday through Tuesday looks generally dry and warm once again. No snow cover and a westerly upper level flow combined with 850mb temperatures of +2 to +6 degrees C should result in daytime highs getting into the 30s with a few 40s even possible early next week. Low temperatures Sunday Night will be in the teens and 20s with lows Monday Night mainly in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast (January 11th-17th)

Two shots of snow showing up in the longer range. The first potential snow event could be next Wednesday/Thursday, but the computer models continue to differ as to how this system will evolve. Today and prior runs from the GEM-GLOBAL model have shown a very strong surface and upper level low/trough moving slowly across the Upper Midwest with strong winds, falling temperatures and several inches of snow impacting the Northland. The GFS keeps this system to our north with just a dusting of snow for our area. Prior EUROPEAN model runs were similar to the G-GEM model, but the 12z EURO (newest run) is now similar to the GFS with just a dusting of snow for our area for the middle of next week. All these models are in agreement in bringing a slug of arctic air into the Upper Midwest with 850mb temperatures nearing -20 degrees C by next Thursday and Friday. This could result in widespread subzero temperatures, especially if we can build a snowpack the middle of next week. The second snow event which just showed up on Today's 12z EURO model run could be sometime next weekend (14th-16th time frame) ECM shows a potent low moving NE out of the Central Plains with a significant winter storm affecting parts of the Northland. Both systems are a long ways down the road and the models will change daily so stay tuned.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. A few snow showers or flurries possible. Low 20 to 25. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday... Flurries possible during the Morning. Partly sunny. High 27 to 32. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 12 to 17. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 35 to 40.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 23 to 28.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 35 to 40.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19 degrees
Low: 2 degrees

Sunrise Saturday: 7:53 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:37 PM CST

Tim

Cooler by the lake doesn't happen during the winter..well until Today. The strange winter of 2011-12 rolls on.

2012-01-05T15:41:00.000-08:00

Issued at 4:15 PM CST, Thursday, January 5th, 2012

Incredible warmth Today
Stays warm thru Friday
Cooler this weekend, but still above average for the time of year
Snow showers/flurries possible at times from Friday-Sunday
Major changes possible by mid-January?

*WARM WEATHER REPORT*

Record high temperatures from Wednesday, January 4th, 2012
Source: Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times

Bismarck, North Dakota: 55 degrees. Previous record: 44 degrees set in 2001.
Williston, North Dakota: 50 degrees. Previous record: 48 degrees set in 2008.
Jamestown, North Dakota: 46 degrees. Previous record: 42 degrees set in 2001.
Sisseton, South Dakota: 49 degrees. Previous record: 47 degrees set in 1987.
Mobridge, South Dakota: 57 degrees. Previous record: 46 degrees set in 1964.
Aberdeen, South Dakota: 54 degrees. Previous record: 47 degrees set in 1921.
Watertown, South Dakota: 47 degrees. Previous record: 45 degrees set in 1987.

Temperature report from Thursday Afternoon.

Minot, North Dakota: 60 degrees
Marshall, Minnesota: 61 degrees
Kadoka, South Dakota: 68 degrees
Sauk Centre, Minnesota: 54 degrees
Rapid City, South Dakota: 70 degrees
Aitkin, Minnesota: 54 degrees
Pine River, Minnesota: 59 degrees
Montevideo, Minnesota: 61 degrees
Canby, Minnesota: 61 degrees
Madison, Minnesota: 57 degrees
Pipestone, Minnesota: 57 degrees
Luverne, Minnesota: 57 degrees
Redwood Falls, Minnesota: 59 degrees
Olivia, Minnesota: 57 degrees
Granite Falls, Minnesota: 57 degrees

Record high temperatures from Thursday, Janaury 5th, 2012
Source: National Weather Service

Duluth, Minnesota: 47 degrees. Previous record: 40 degrees set in 1984.
International Falls, Minnesota: 46 degrees. Previous record: 36 degrees set in 1984.
St. Cloud, Minnesota: 53 degrees. Previous record: 43 degrees set in 1984.
Rochester, Minnesota: 54 degrees. Previous record: 45 degrees set in 1930.
Austin, Minnesota: 55 degrees. Previous record: 44 degrees set in 2007.
Preston, Minnesota: 55 degrees. Previous record: 46 degrees set in 2007.
Winona, Minnesota: 52 degrees. Previous record: 48 degrees set in 2007.

Note: Alexandria (55 degrees) and Redwood Falls (59 degrees) also broke their record high temperature for Today.

First ever 60 degree temperature in Minnesota during the 1st week of January occurred Today!
Source: Minnesota State Climatology Office

Until Today there has never been a 60 degree temperature in Minnesota during the 1st week of January. The previous warmest temperature during the 1st week of January occurred on the 7th back in 2003 when Amboy reached 59 degrees. The previous warmest temperature ever recorded on January 5th was 57 degrees which occurred in 1902 at Crookston, Minnesota. 60 degree temperatures in Minnesota in January is quite rare. Only 10 years in the 120 on record have produced a 60 degree temperature. The all-time warmest January temperature is 69 degrees which occurred on the 24th back in 1981 at Montevideo, Minnesota.

Weather Tidbits:

*The temperature and humidity was higher at Rapid City, South Dakota compared to Miami, Florida This Afternoon. It was 70 degrees at Rapid City compared to 68 degrees at Miami. (Accuweather)

*31 tornadoes in Minnesota during 2011 which was 4 above the yearly average of 27. (Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times)

*Red Flag Warning* for the potential of rapid fire weather growth and extreme fire danger covered parts of North Dakota Today (NWS Bismarck, ND)

*Minnesota drought update as of January 3rd, 2012*
Source: Climate Prediction Center

*99% of Minnesota was abnormally dry.
*57% of Minnesota was in a moderate drought.
*24% of Minnesota was in a severe drought.

Southern Minnesota, and Cook...Lake...and Eastern St. Louis Counties in Northeast Minnesota were in a severe drought.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A spring like day in early January. 40s and 50s covered most of our area Today with a marine layer (common in spring) keeping temperatures in the 30s along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Note: Temperature at the Duluth Harbor jumped from 34 degrees at 2pm to 43 degrees at 3pm as winds shifted to the southwest. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies were common Today with southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W/NW 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest. 850mb temperatures This Afternoon were more typical of May versus January...They ranged from +5 degrees C in Northeast Minnesota to +12 degrees C in the Southwest half of Minnesota. A baroclinic zone was located well to our N/NE where 850mb temperatures ranged from -4 to -22 degrees C. A strong jet stream of 130 knots seperated this cold air to our north and the unusually warm temperatures across most of the U.S.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 5th)

Low pressure will be centered to our north while a cold front drops southeast through our area. Some flurries could develop toward dawn in extreme Northern Minnesota otherwise Tonight will be dry and quite mild. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with northwest or southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (January 6th)

Low pressure will be centered to our N/NE during this period. Some flurries or snow showers are possible on Friday in Northern Minnesota and in the rest of our area Friday Night. Snowfall accumulations of 1" or less are expected in far Northern Minnesota. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s with some 40s in Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the teens and 20s. Winds during this period will be from the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 7th-9th)

Not much going on with the weather during this period. Scattered flurries can't be ruled out this weekend, but overall it looks dry from Saturday through Monday. High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast (January 10th-16th)

Mild temperatures should continue Tuesday and possibly on Wednesday as well before we get a blast of cold air by late next week and the following weekend. A low pressure system the middle of next week will have to be watched for a minor snow event, although the computer models are at odds as to how this system will evolve for January 11th-12th.

Note: The long range computer models continue to show signs of a significant pattern change for mid-late January which could result in more frequent and longer lasting arctic outbreaks and possible snow systems affecting the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Breezy and very mild for the time of year. Partly cloudy. Low 27 to 32 which is 25 to around 30 degrees above the normal low for Tonight. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday... Mild. Variable cloudiness. High 35 to 40. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 20 to 25. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 27 to 32.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 33 to 38.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19 degrees
Low: 2 degrees

Sunrise Friday: 7:53 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 4:36 PM CST

Tim

Record warmth for Thursday, get out and enjoy!

2012-01-04T15:16:00.000-08:00

Issued at 3:36 PM CST, Wednesday, January 4th, 2012

Warm temperatures into Friday
Near record or record warmth expected on Thursday
Somewhat cooler this weekend with flurries at times
Another warm up early next week
Colder for the middle/end of next week?

2011 Climate Summary for Duluth, Minnesota
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, MN

Average temperature: 40.7 degrees
Normal: 39.7 degrees
Departure from normal: +1.0 degree

Total precipitation: 26.06"
Normal: 30.96"
Departure from normal: -4.90"

Total snowfall: 51.5"
Normal: 86.1"
Departure from normal: -34.6"

Note:

-2011 tied for the 22nd warmest calendar year on record.
-2011 was the 42 driest and 30th least snowiest calendar years on record.

Weather Tidbits:

*December 2011 was the 20th warmest. 34th driest. And the 47th least snowiest on record at Duluth, Minnesota. (NWS)

*Unseasonably warm temperatures resulting in a decreasing snow pack across the Upper Midwest. January 1st: 43.6% of the Upper Midwest was covered by snow. January 4th: 29.3% of the Upper Midwest was covered by snow. (NOHRSC)

*Arctic air continues to be bottled up in Alaska, Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut. Widespread 20-55 below zero temperatures have been occurring in these areas during the past few days. McGrath, Alaska's low temperature was -54 degrees Today.

Freezing temperatures in Florida Wednesday Morning
Source: National Weather Service

Plymouth: 17 degrees
Ocala: 21 degrees
Bristol: 21 degrees
Jacksonville: 22 degrees
Apalachicola: 25 degrees
Deland: 25 degrees
Lisbon: 28 degrees
Orlando: 29 degrees

Unusually warm temperatures in the Dakotas and Western Minnesota on January 3rd
Source: National Weather Service

Minnesota:

Canby: 41 degrees
Madison: 41 degrees
Ortonville: 41 degrees

North Dakota:

Bismarck: 55 degrees

South Dakota:

Pierre: 61 degrees
Chamberlain: 61 degrees
Mobridge: 58 degrees
Aberdeen: 49 degrees
Mitchell: 48 degrees
Huron: 47 degrees

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found in our area with temperatures 10-20 degrees above average for early January. Highs were in the 30s with a few 40s in Western areas. Winds Today were out of the south or west under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Strong NW 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Lakes with a 120-140 knot upper level jet and an 80-90 knot mid level jet in place per RUC model analysis. Lots of warmth in the Western, Central, Northern U.S. with late Afternoon 850mb temperatures ranging from +2 to +4 degrees C in Central and Western Minnesota to +8 degrees C in Southern North Dakota to +12 degrees C in Southwest South Dakota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Thursday Night (January 4th-5th)

Low pressure will be centered to our northwest during this period with a baroclinic zone in Central Canada and a warm front advancing east out of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Several inches of snow will accumulate during this period north of Minnesota while unseasonable warmth and dry weather persists across our area. Partly cloudy skies are forecasted during this period with the the possibility for some flurries Thursday Morning in the Arrowhead. Lows Tonight and Thursday Night will mainly be in the 20s with some teens and single digits in the traditional cold spots. Highs on Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be out of the south or west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible on Thursday.

Note: Record high temperatures for Thursday include 36 degrees at International Falls and 40 degrees at Duluth. Both of these records should be tied or broken.

Extended Forecast (January 6th-8th)

A cold front will pass through our area Friday Morning while low pressure remains off to our north. Could see some snow flurries Friday and Saturday, but little if any accumulation is expected. Highs on Friday will be in the 30s with highs for Saturday and Sunday in the 20s with some teens in Northern Minnesota. Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will mainly be in the single digits and teens.

Long Range Forecast (January 9th-15th)

After a brief cool down this weekend it appears that will have another blast of mild air for early next week. There are some signs showing up per GFS and EUROPEAN forecast models for a shot of colder temperatures during the middle to the end of next week, but right now it doesn't look like any extreme cold thru mid-January.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 17 to 22. Wind southwest around 12 mph.

.Thursday... Breezy. Warm for the time of year. Partly cloudy. Record or near record warmth expected. High 40 to 45. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday... Variable cloudiness. High 32 to 37.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

.Sunday... Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19 degrees
Low: 2 degrees

Sunrise Thursday: 7:53 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 4:34 PM CST

Tim

Wimpy winter of 2011-12 shows no signs of changing anytime soon.

2012-01-03T15:36:00.000-08:00

Issued at 4:26 PM CST, Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012

Brisk winds at times, but milder than normal temperatures for the next several days
No big storms thru early next week

Low temperature report for Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN: -3 degrees
International Falls, MN: -9 degrees
Hibbing, MN: -11 degrees
Ashland, WI: -7 degrees
Hayward, WI: -11 degrees
Silver Bay, MN: -11 degrees
Grand Marais, MN: -15 degrees
Ely, MN: -17 degrees
Crane Lake, MN: -17 degrees
Cook, MN: -15 degrees
Superior, WI: -4 degrees
Phillips, WI: -11 degrees
Embarrass, MN: -19 degrees
Kabetogama, MN: -12 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN: -17 degrees
Butternut, WI: -12 degrees
Park Falls, WI: -12 degrees
Upson, WI: -15 degrees
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI: -16 degrees
Gordon, WI: -11 degrees

Snow depth report as of January 3rd, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Minnesota:

Duluth: 3.0"
International Falls: 5.0"
Bruno: 3.0"
Cass Lake: 4.0"
Dixon Lake: 5.0"
Northome: 2.0"
Cook: 4.0"
Embarrass: 3.0"
Grand Portage: 7.0"
Kabetogama: 8.0"
3 miles east of Orr: 6.0"
Finland: 8.0"

Wisconsin:

Gurney: 7.0"
Park Falls: 9.0"
Upson: 12.0"
9 miles north of Bayfield: 3.0"
4 miles west of Clam Lake: 8.0"
Gordon: 3.0"
Sarona: 6.0"
Solon Springs: 3.0"
Webster: 3.0"

Weather Tidbits:

*High temperature of 15 degrees on January 2nd at Duluth, Minnesota was our 1st day with a below average high temperature since December 16th when the high was 19 degrees.

*-3 degree low temperature at Duluth, Minnesota on January 2nd was our 1st zero or subzero low temperature since December 9th when the low was zero degrees.

*Janaury 2nd's low temperature of -3 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota was the coldest low temperature since March 2nd, 2011 (-11 degrees)

Lake effect snow report from Sunday, January 1st, 2012
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Gile, WI (Iron County) 12.0"
Montreal, WI (Iron County) 10.0"
Glidden, WI (Ashland County) 7.0"
2 miles west-northwest of Saxon, WI (Iron County) 6.0"
4 miles east of Cornucopia, WI (Bayfield County) 3.2"

*2nd warmest second half of the season in the Twin Cities*
Source: Minnesota Climatology Working Group

The final 6 months of 2011 (July-December) was the 2nd warmest on record dating back to 1873. The average temperature was 56.3 degrees which was 4.8 degrees above the 1981-2000 average of 51.5 degrees. The only warmer July-December period on record occurred during the dust bowl year of 1931 when the average temperature was 56.8 degrees.

*2nd warmest October-December (tied) in the Twin Cities*
Source: Minnesota Climatology Working Group

The average temperature from October thru December, 2011 was 40.8 degrees which ties with 2001 in being the 2nd warmest on record. Only 1931 was warmer with an average temperature of 41.6 degrees.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1002mb was in Western Ontario Province with a cold front out in the Eastern Dakotas. Partly to mostly sunny skies occurred Today with strong warm air advection aided by south-southwest winds at 10 to 25 mph. Highs were in the 20s with some teens in Northeast Minnesota.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery with a vigorous disturbance along with it's 60-120 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls spreading south-east through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Unseasonably warm temperatures have returned to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with 4pm 850mb temperatures ranging from +8 degrees C in Southern South Dakota to +6 degrees C in Central Minnesota to -4 degrees C in far Northeast Minnesota. Note: The arctic air which was over the Upper Midwest 24 hours ago has shifted into Eastern Canada where 850mb temperatures ranged from -16 to -20 degrees C with surface temperatures of zero to around -10 degrees per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (January 3rd)

A cold front will move southeast through our area. A few snow flurries could develop during the night in the Arrowhead with a brief flare up in lake effect snow showers possible Overnight along the South Shore of Lake Superior with up to 1" of accumulation possible, mainly in Ashland and Iron Counties. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the single digits to around 20 degrees. Southwest winds will become northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (January 4th)

Looks dry during this period with partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the 20s and 30s with lows in the teens to lower 20s. Winds will be out of the west at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 5th-7th)

Low pressure will pass to the north of Minnesota during this period with a cold front moving southeast and through our area on Friday. Unseasonably warm temperatures will occur on Thursday and Friday with highs in the 30s with a few 40s even possible on Thursday, some cooler air will work into Northern Minnesota on Friday and this could result in high temperatures holding in the 20s. Might be some flurries across the area Friday and Saturday, but nothing major is expected at this time. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 20s. Lows Friday Night will be in the teens and 20s with little recovery expected during the day Saturday.

Long Range Forecast (January 8th-14th)

Little if any change in the overall weather pattern during the 2nd week of January. Any cold airmass that does affect the Upper Midwest will be very brief with milder than average temperatures prevailing for the most part. No significant storm systems are expected either during this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Partly cloudy. Low 12 to 17. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west.

.Wednesday... Partly cloudy. High 26 to 31. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 15 to 20. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 18 to 23.

.Friday... Variable cloudiness. High 30 to 35.

.Friday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19 degrees
Low: 2 degrees

Sunrise Wednesday: 7:54 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday: 4:34 PM CST

Tim

December Climate Summary

2012-01-03T10:33:00.000-08:00

December 2011 Climate Summary for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average monthly temperature: 21.7 degrees
Normal: 14.8 degrees
Departure from normal: +6.9 degrees

Total precipitation: 0.55"
Normal: 1.21"
Departure from normal: -0.66"

Total snowfall: 8.1"
Normal: 17.7"
Departure from normal: -9.6"

Warmest monthly high temperature: 43 degrees on the 26th
Warmest monthly low temperature: 32 degrees on the 12th and 14th

Coldest monthly high temperature: 13 degrees on the 9th
Coldest monthly low temperature: -1 degree on the 5th and 6th

Number of days with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees: 11
Number of days with a high temperature of at least 40 degrees: 2
Number of days with a low temperature of zero degrees or colder: 3

Number of days with at least 0.01" of precipitation: 8
Number of days with at least 0.10" of precipitation: 3

Heaviest daily precipitation: 0.16" on the 14th

Number of days with at least 1.0" of snow: 2
Number of days with at least 2.0" of snow: 2

Heaviest daily snowfall total: 2.5" on the 14th

Note: 22/31 days had at least a trace of precipitation.
Note: 20/31 days had at least a trace of snowfall.

December 2010 Climate Summary for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average monthly temperature: 12.8 degrees/-1.2 degrees
Total precipitation: 2.08"/+1.14"
Total snowfall: 18.1"/+3.2"

9 days with a low temperature of zero degrees or colder
2 days with a high temperature in the single digits

Tim

A chill in the air Tonight and Monday. Significant lake effect snow and blowing snow continues for another 24 hours along the South Shore of Lake Superior.

2012-01-01T16:19:00.000-08:00

Issued at 5:23 PM CST, Sunday, January 1st, 2012

Gusty winds and colder temperatures thru Monday
Heavy lake effect snow along the South Shore of Lake Superior Tonight and Monday
Milder temperatures return by Tuesday and will continue the rest of the week

Snowfall report for Saturday Night/Sunday Morning, December 31st-January 1st
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Minnesota snowfall totals:

3 miles east of Orr (St. Louis County) 2.5"
6 miles northwest of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County) 2.1"
Cook (St. Louis County) 2.0"
Askov (Pine County) 2.0"
Carlton (Carlton County) 2.0"
Togo (Itasca County) 2.0"
Esko (Carlton County) 1.8"
6 miles west of Two Harbors (St. Louis County) 1.3"
International Falls (Koochiching County) 1.3"
Silver Bay (Lake County) 1.5"

Illgen City (Lake County) 1.2"

Wisconsin snowfall totals:

Park Falls (Price County) 6.0"
Exeland (Sawyer County) 6.0"
Gile (Iron County) 5.2"
3 miles north of Butternut (Ashland County) 5.0"
3 miles west of Phillips (Price County) 4.8"
Upson (Iron County) 4.5"
Trade Lake (Burnett County) 4.0"
6 miles southwest of Cable (Sawyer County) 4.0"
Cornucopia (Bayfield County) 4.0"
Winter (Sawyer County) 4.0"
9 miles north-northeast of Hayward (Sawyer County) 4.0"
6 miles west of Hayward (Washburn County) 3.9"
4 miles north of Grantsburg (Burnett County) 3.5"
Webb Lake (Burnett County) 3.5"
Clam Lake (Ashland County) 3.5"
Oulu (Bayfield County) 3.5"
4 miles northeast of Cloverland (Douglas County) 3.0"
Saron (Washburn County) 3.0"
Bennett (Douglas County) 3.0"
5 miles south of Herbster (Bayfield County) 3.0"
Ashland (Ashland County) 2.9"
Maple (Douglas County) 2.8"
3 miles west of Bayfield (Bayfield County) 2.7"

5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 1.1" NWS total.
Proctor, MN (St. Louis County) 1.0"

2011 month by month climate summary for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

January:

Average temperature: 7.1 degrees/-1.3 degrees
Total precipitation: 1.11"/-0.01"
Total snowfall: 18.5"/-1.1"

February:

Average temperature: 14.5 degrees/-1.3 degrees
Total precipitation: 0.31"/-0.52"
Total snowfall: 3.2"/-8.2"

March:

Average temperature: 24.0 degrees/-1.4 degrees
Total precipitation: 0.82"/-0.87"
Total snowfall: 7.4"/-6.3"

April:

Average temperature: 39.1 degrees/+0.1 degrees
Total precipitation: 3.79"/+1.70"
Total snowfall: 10.6"/+4.3"

May:

Average temperature: 49.7 degrees/-2.1 degrees
Total precipitation: 2.27"/-0.68"
Snowfall total: Trace

June:

Average temperature: 58.0 degrees/-1.9 degrees
Total precipitation: 3.72"/-0.53"

July:

Average temperature: 69.8 degrees/+4.3 degrees
Total precipitation: 4.57"/+0.37"

August:

Average temperature: 66.8 degrees/+2.5 degrees
Total precipitation: 5.71"/+2.01"

September:

Average temperature: 56.2 degrees/+0.6 degrees
Total precipitation: 1.48"/-2.63"
Total snowfall: Trace/-0.1"

October:

Average temperature: 48.5 degrees/+5.3 degrees
Total precipitation: 1.13"/-1.72"
Total snowfall: Trace/-2.3"

November:

Average temperature: 33.1 degrees/+4.3 degrees
Total precipitation: 0.60"/-1.49"
Total snowfall: 3.7"/-10.0"

December:

Average temperature: 21.7 degrees/+6.9 degrees
Total precipitation: 0.55"/-0.66"
Total snowfall: 8.1"/-9.6"

Weather History:

On this date in 2005: 9.5" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Deep low pressure of 990mb has moved into Eastern Ontario Province early This Evening with arctic high pressure of 1040mb over the Northern Rockies. Cold air advection has been pouring into the region Today on the backside of the Ontario low. Temperatures in the 20s and 30s earlier in the day have fallen into the teens and 20s during the Afternoon. Northwest winds were also a big story Today with wind speeds of 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were found in our area Today with some light snow and flurries while heavier lake effect snow showers have been occurring along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis shows a NW 500mb flow in place across the Upper Midwest with a strong storm system heading NE into Quebec Province. 850mb temperatures as of 5pm ranged from -14 degrees C in the Northwest half of Minnesota to -8 degrees C in Southwest Iowa.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (Janaury 1st)

Arctic high pressure will move into the Northern-Central Plains. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with scattered flurries and snow showers with little or no accumulation. Lows will be in the single digits to low teens with some spots up North possibly dropping a few degrees below zero. Northwest winds will continue at 10 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Areas of blowing and drifting snow will persist Tonight. Wind chills will range from around 5 above to 20 below zero. Note: Wind Advisory is in effect until Midnight CST Tonight for Southern Cass...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Pine...Carlton...and Southern St. Louis Counties in Minnesota and for Douglas...Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price Counties in Wisconsin.

Monday and Monday Night (January 2nd)

High pressure heads into the Upper Midwest during this period. Partly cloudy skies are forecast with highs Tomorrow in the single digits and teens with lows Tomorrow Night ranging from around 5 above to 15 below. Northwest winds at 10 to 25 mph on Monday will decrease to under 15 mph Monday Night.

*Lake Effect Snow Update*

Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 6pm CST Monday for Bayfield...Ashland...and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Port Wing...Bayfield...Cable...Ashland...Mellen...Glidden...Butternut...Upson...Gile...and Hurley. An additional 4-7" of snow accumulation is possible by Monday Afternoon with localized higher amounts of 12 to as much as 18" possible in parts of the Bayfield Peninsula and the Gogebic Range from Mellen to Hurley. Significant blowing and drifting snow will also occur into Monday as northwest winds continue to gust to over 25 mph at times. Visibility will occasionally drop to under one half mile. Travel conditions will remain very difficult with whiteout conditions possible especially in open areas near Lake Superior and along Highway 2.

Extended Forecast (January 3rd-5th)

A weak clipper will move through the Upper Great Tuesday and Wednesday with some possible flurries/light snow showers in some parts of our area. High temperatures from Tuesday through Thursday will be in the 20s to lower 30s with low temperatures Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night mainly in the teens.

Long Range Forecast (January 6th-12th)

Low pressure passes to our north late this week with a cold front heading southeast across our area on Friday. Could be some late week/weekend flurries, but overall it looks like a pretty quiet weather pattern for the Upper Midwest with no arctic airmasses.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WIND ADVISORY until 12am CST Tonight*

.Tonight... Windy and colder. Flurries. Variable cloudiness. Low 3 to 8. Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Areas of blowing and drifting snow. Wind chills of 5 below to around 20 below.

.Monday... Cold. Partly cloudy. High 7 to 12. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 3 below to 8 below. Wind northwest around 12 mph.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 17 to 22.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 10 to 15.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 25 to 30.

.Wednesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.

.Thursday... Partly cloudy. High 28 to 33.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19 degrees
Low: 3 degrees

Sunrise Monday: 7:54 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 4:32 PM CST

Tim

Happy New Year! Be careful on the roads! Hazardous travel conditions develop Tonight.

2011-12-31T14:54:00.000-08:00

Issued at 3:22 PM CST, Saturday, December 31st, 2011

Snow with a few to several inches of accumulation Tonight
Precipitation may start as an icy mix in Eastcentral Minnesota-Northwest Wisconsin This Evening
Strong winds arrive late Tonight and Sunday
Heavy lake effect snow Sunday PM-Monday along the South Shore of Lake Superior

Weather Tidbits:

*Today marks the 15th day in a row (12/17-12/31) with an above normal high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.

*Back to back storms on New Year's Eve! Last year's storm dropped 1-2" of snow and some sleet accumulation in the Twin Ports with even some thunder! The storm last year also produced a severe weather outbreak with 195 severe weather reports including 66 tornadoes. Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama were affected by the severe weather (SPC)

January 2012 Climate Outlook
Source: Climate Prediction Center

For Duluth, Minnesota:

33-40% chance for above normal temperatures with equal chances for above normal, below normal or normal precipitation.

January Climate Data for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average monthly temperature: 10.2 degrees
Snowfall: 19.4"
Precipitation: 0.96"

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A band of snow with accumulations ranging from 0.5-2.5" affected portions of Northern Minnesota Today, generally along and north of a line from Cass Lake to Ely into the Arrowhead. Mostly cloudy skies were found in our area Today with patchy fog and light freezing drizzle, especially before Noon. Highs were in the upper 20s to middle 30s with east winds under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A fairly complicated 500mb pattern Today. One disturbance was heading east into Manitoba Province...A 2nd disturbance was moving E-NE thru Northern Minnesota...A 3rd disturbance was moving E-NE thru portions of the Central Plains per water vapor satellite imagery. 100 knot mid level jet streak over Southern Colorado late This Afternoon was heading into the Western High Plains while a 120 knot upper level jet covered parts of the Northern-Central Rockies per RUC model analysis. Impressive height falls of 90-180 meters were occurring Today in parts of Kansas and Nebraska with that Central Plains system. 850mb temperatures as of 3pm ranged from -10 degrees C in Western Manitoba Province to -4 degrees C in Central Minnesota to +4 degrees C in far Southeast Minnesota.

Note: Temperatures at 3pm Today ranged from 28 degrees at International Falls; 43 degrees in the Twin Cities; 54 degrees at Omaha, NE. Widespread 60s and 70s covered Missouri and Oklahoma with even some 80s in parts of Texas.

Tonight (December 31st)

A difficult forecast ahead since were dealing with phasing issues. How much snow accumulates, where the heaviest snow sets up and the duration of snowfall continues to be a little uncertain at this late hour.

The Northern stream low remains well to our north in Manitoba Province while the Southern stream low which was currently in Southeast Nebraska moves toward Southern Lake Michigan by dawn. Two upper troughs will move into the region Tonight while the upper trough associated with the Central Plains low takes on a negative tilt Overnight.

Snow will be ongoing This Evening in Northern Minnesota with total accumulations of 1-3" along and north of a line from Cass Lake to Ely to the Arrowhead...Light snow and flurries will continue in Northern Minnesota Overnight with additional accumulations of less than 1".

Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin will see precipitation develop between 5-8pm This Evening with snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain all a possibility, but any mixed precipitation should turn quickly to snow by mid or late Evening.

Based on latest model data it appears that the greatest snowfall accumulations Tonight will occur in Northwest Wisconsin and possibly into far Eastern Minnesota (Pine County) The reason these areas should receive the greatest snowfall amounts is because the moderate to heavy snow should linger longer in this area compared to locations farther west.

There should also be a quick burst of moderate to locally heavy snow for the Twin Ports, Aitkin and Brainerd Lakes region, most likely between 8-11pm Tonight.

Mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the teens and 20s. Winds will become northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph developing after Midnight, especially in Western parts of our area. The snow that does fall Tonight will blow around as winds increase after Midnight.

Total snowfall accumulations by Sunday Morning:

3-6" in Northwest Wisconsin with locally higher amounts approaching 8".
1-4" in Northeast-Eastcentral Minnesota.
1-3" in Northern Minnesota.

New Year's Day and Night (January 1st)

Low pressure will deepen as it moves into the Eastern Great Lakes on Sunday and to Eastern Canada Sunday Night with arctic high pressure building into the Northern and Central Plains. Areas of light snow and flurries will be found in our area during this period with accumulations under 1". Mostly cloudy skies are expected with nearly steady temperatures in the teens and 20s on Sunday with lows Sunday Night in the single digits below to low teens above zero. Strong northwest winds are forecast during this period with wind speeds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph. Areas of blowing and drifting snow will be possible Tomorrow into Tomorrow Night.

Lake effect snow update:

Heavy lake effect snow showers will develop Sunday Afternoon and will continue into Monday along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin. Additional snow accumulations of 5-8" are possible from Sunday Afternoon thru Monday with 12-18" possible in parts of the Bayfield Peninsula and the Gogebic Range from Mellen to Hurley. Strong winds developing on Sunday and continuing into Monday combined with the falling snow will result in very hazardous travel conditions with whiteout or near whiteout conditions at times especially in open areas near Lake Superior and along Highway 2.

Extended Forecast (January 2nd-4th)

Arctic high pressure will build into the Upper Midwest on Monday with dry conditions outside of the South Shore snowbelts where lake effect snow will persist. Highs on Monday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Monday Night ranging from around 20 below to zero. A clipper system is forecast to move into the Upper Midwest next Tuesday-Wednesday, some snow showers and flurries could occur in parts of our area with light accumulations. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the teens with highs on Wednesday in the 20s. Low temperatures Tuesday Night will be in the single digits and teens.

Long Range Forecast (January 5th-11th)

A nice warmup is expected for late next week with high temperatures climbing back into the 30s in most of the Northland. Low pressure will pass to our north next Thursday-Saturday with a cold front moving through our area sometime on Friday. Doesn't look like will see any significant amounts of precipitation as that front comes through. Cooler temperatures should return to the Upper Midwest by next weekend into early the following week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* until 10am CST Sunday

.Tonight... Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle early. Snow developing between 6-8pm. Bursts of heavier snow possible between 8-11pm. Snow tapering to light snow and flurries after Midnight. Total snowfall accumulations of 1-3" possible. Low 15 to 20. Wind east around 10 mph...Becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 30 mph late. Areas of blowing and drifting snow are possible Overnight.

.New Year's Day... Windy. Snow showers and flurries. Accumulations less than 1". Considerable cloudiness. High 25 to 30 with falling temperatures. Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph with occasional high gusts. Areas of blowing and drifting snow.

.Sunday Night... Windy. Flurries. Variable cloudiness. Low zero to 5 above. Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph. Wind chills of 10 below to around 20 below.

.Monday... Cold. Partly cloudy. High 7 to 12.

.Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 15 to 20.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 8 to 13.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Today

High: 19 degrees
Low: 3 degrees

Sunrise Sunday: 7:54 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 4:31 PM CST

Tim

Winter Storm Update!

2011-12-31T10:16:00.000-08:00

Issued at 11:47 AM CST, Saturday, December 31st, 2011

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter weather advisory in effect from 4pm CST Today until 10am CST Sunday for the following Counties: In Minnesota...Crow Wing...Aitkin...Carlton...Southern St. Louis...Southern Lake...and Southern Cook. Some cities included in the advisory: Brainerd...Aitkin...McGregor...Hill City...Moose Lake...Cloquet...Duluth...Floodwood...Two Harbors...Silver Bay...Lutsen...and Grand Marais.

*Discussion: Patchy fog and light freezing drizzle will continue This Afternoon. Snow will develop by late This Afternoon or early This Evening in the Brainerd Lakes region. Snow will then spread east and northeast across the remainder of the advisory area Tonight. Snow could be moderate to heavy at times between 5pm-Midnight Tonight.

*Total snowfall accumulations: 2-5"

*Impacts: Falling snow with increasing winds resulting in blowing and drifting snow. Visibility will fall to around one half mile at times This Evening. Roads will become snow covered and slippery Tonight.

*Strong northwest winds will continue on New Year's Day with areas of blowing and drifting snow.

A winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow means that visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and blowing snow. Use caution when traveling...Especially in open areas that are more exposed to the wind. Roads may be slick and hazardous. Allow extra time to reach your destination.

*WINTER STORM WARNING*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter storm warning in effect from 4pm CST Today until Noon CST Sunday for the following Counties: In Minnesota...Pine. In Wisconsin...Douglas...Burnett...Washburn...and Sawyer.

*Discussion: Snow develops This Evening and continues Overnight. Snow could be heavy at times. Freezing rain or sleet could be mixed with the snow This Evening.

*Total snowfall accumulations: 4-6" with locally higher amounts up to 8".

*Impacts: Snow becoming heavy at times with increasing northwest winds late Tonight and New Year's Day. Blowing and drifting snow develops Overnight into Sunday. Visibility reduced to one half mile or less at times. Roads will become snow covered and slippery with very hazardous travel conditions.

A winter storm warning for heavy snow and blowing snow means the combination of strong winds and falling and blowing snow will cause low visibility and some drifting snow. Snow and ice covered roads and dangerous travel conditions can be expected. Delay travel if possible. If you must travel, use extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination. Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food and water. Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.

*WINTER STORM WARNING*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter storm warning in effect from 8pm CST This Evening until 6pm CST Monday for the following Counties in Northwest Wisconsin: Bayfield...Ashland...and Iron. Some Cities included in the warning are: Port Wing...Bayfield...Cable...Ashland...Mellen...Glidden...Butternut...Upson...Gile...and Hurley.

*Discussion: Snow develops Tonight with moderate to heavy snow at times into early Sunday. Lake effect snow showers are expected to develop Sunday Afternoon and linger through Monday with periods of heavy snow expected. Strong northwest winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph will occur on Sunday and Monday.

*Total snowfall accumulations: 5-8" with 12-18" possible in parts of the Bayfield Peninsula and the Gogebic Range from Mellen to Hurley.

*Impacts: Snow covered and slippery roads developing Tonight. Visibility as low as one quarter mile at times from Tonight through early Sunday...And again Sunday Afternoon into Monday. Significant blowing and drifting snow Sunday and Monday with severely limited visibility especially in open areas near Lake Superior and along Highway 2.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter weather advisory in effect from 8pm CST This Evening until 3pm CST Sunday for Price County in Northwest Wisconsin including the Cities of Park Falls...Phillips...and Ogema.

*Discussion: A mixture of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow will develop Tonight with precipitation turning to all snow Overnight into Sunday. Gusty northwest winds will develop on Sunday with wind speeds from 15 to 30 mph.

*Total snowfall accumulations: 2-5"

*Impacts: Falling snow combined with increasing winds leading to areas of blowing and drifting snow on Sunday. Roads will become snow covered and slippery and visibility will drop to around one half mile at times once the precipitation turns to all snow.

Tim

Snow begins Saturday Afternoon N/NW of Duluth. 1" for DLH...Heavier amounts N.Minnesota. Lake Effect Snowstorm begins Sunday in Bayfield, Ashland&Iron Counties Wisconsin.

2011-12-30T15:49:00.000-08:00

Issued at 4:21 PM CST, Friday, December 30th, 2011

Quiet night Tonight
Several inches of snow for Northern Minnesota Saturday Afternoon-early Sunday
Some mixed precip and snow farther south late Saturday-early Sunday
Strong winds, colder temperatures and bitterly cold wind chills Sunday-Monday
Heavy lake effect snow and possible blizzard conditions for the South Shore Sunday-Monday

*WINTER STORM WATCH*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Saturday Night through Monday Afternoon for Bayfield...Ashland...and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin. Some cities included in the watch are: Port Wing...Bayfield...Cable...Ashland...Mellen...Butternut...Upson...Gile...and Hurley.

Discussion: A mixture of precipitation is possible Saturday Evening with any mixed precipitation turning to snow Overnight Saturday. Snow will then continue Sunday into Monday with very heavy lake effect snow showers expected from late Sunday Afternoon through Monday.

Snowfall accumulations: 6 or more inches with the possibility of a foot or more especially in Ashland and Iron Counties.

Impacts: Snow covered and icy roads. Visibilities less than one half mile at times. Northwest winds increasing to 20 to 30 mph causing blowing and drifting snow. Travel may become quite difficult by Sunday Afternoon.

A winter storm watch means there is the potential for significant accumulation of snow that may impact travel and commerce. You are encouraged to stay current with the latest weather information regarding this developing winter storm via local television, radio, the internet or NOAA weather radio.

Snowfall report for Friday, December 30th, 2011
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Pillager, MN (Cass County) 2.7"
2 miles north of Motley, MN (Cass County) 2.0"
Fort Ripley, MN (Crow Wing County) 1.5"
3 miles northeast of Nisswa, MN (Crow Wing County) 1.5"
Leader, MN (Cass County) 1.3"

2011 weather stats for Duluth, Minnesota

*9 months had below average precipitation. April, July and August were the months with above average precipitation.

*5 months had below average temperatures (January, February, March, May and June)

*7 months had above average temperatures (April, July, August, September-December)

Weather History:

On this date in 1996: 10.3" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1000mb has moved into Northern Illinois late This Afternoon. This low did bring some light snow to southwest parts of our area with about 1-2" of accumulation Today in parts of Cass and Crow Wing Counties Minnesota. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies covered the area with highs generally in the 20s along with light winds of 12 mph or less.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A vigorous disturbance with 60-120 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls (RUC analysis) was moving east through the Southern Great Lakes per water vapor satellite imagery with a west to east H5 flow in place across the Upper Midwest. An upper level trough was moving east out of the Pacific Northwest late Today with 60-120 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls occurring across the Northwest U.S. per RUC model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -4 degrees C in Northeast Minnesota to zero degrees C in Northeast South Dakota to +10 degrees C in far Southwest South Dakota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (December 30th)

All is quiet with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the teens and 20s with a few single digits possible up north, especially if skies become clear for a few hours. Winds will become south under 10 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (December 31st)

Low pressure will move into Central Manitoba Province on Saturday while another low moves into Central-Eastern South Dakota. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies are forecast on Saturday with some snow developing in Northern Minnesota, mainly north/west of a line from Cass Lake to Ely. The precipitation could start out as a mix of snow, freezing rain or sleet, especially in the Cass Lake area. Highs on Saturday will be in the 30s with some 40s possible in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Low pressure will move into Lake Superior late Saturday Night with an arctic front dropping southeast through our area. Snow should continue Tomorrow Night in Northern Minnesota with snow spreading into the Iron Range and Arrowhead early Saturday Evening. Some mixed precipitation could develop in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Saturday Evening with precipitation turning to some snow/flurries Saturday Night.

Note: Total snowfall accumulations from Saturday Afternoon thru Sunday should range from 2-4" along and north of Highways 2 and 169 in Northern Minnesota including the Cities of International Falls, Northome, Bigfork, Togo, Crane Lake, Ely, Tower and Hibbing.  1-3" of snow is possible Saturday Night-Sunday Morning in Northwest Wisconsin. Snowfall accumulations of an inch or less are expected for the Twin Ports, I35 corridor, west to the Brainerd Lakes.

Lows Saturday Night will be in the teens and 20s with winds turning to the northwest and increasing to 15 to 30 mph.

Extended Forecast (January 1st-3rd)

Low pressure will deepen as it moves into Eastern Canada from Sunday into Monday. Arctic high pressure of 1040-1045mb will reach the Northern-Central Plains on Sunday and will move into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Strong northwest winds will be found in our area on Sunday and early Monday with 850mb wind speeds of 40-55 knots which should lead to 15-35 mph winds at the surface. Temperatures on Sunday will hold steady in the teens and 20s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits below to low teens above zero. Highs on Monday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Monday Night ranging from around 15 below to 5 above with a few spots up North possibly dropping to 20 below. Highs on Tuesday will be in the teens. The combination of strong winds and falling temperatures will result in wind chill temperatures of 10 below to around 35 below zero from Sunday Evening into Monday with the coldest wind chills occurring late Sunday Night into Monday Morning. Lingering snow showers and flurries are expected across our area on Sunday with dry weather on Monday. Flurries or snow showers could return to portions of the area on Tuesday as a clipper heads toward the region.

Long Range Forecast (January 4th-10th)

Temperatures are forecast to be above average during this period with a possible clipper on January 4th with a dusting of snow possible for parts of the Northland. Another system/s are possible between January 6th-8th, but it's too early to tell if they would bring any significant amounts of precipitation to our area or just light amounts.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 17 to 22. Light winds.

.New Year's Eve... Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night... Becoming windy. Light snow and flurries. Some freezing rain or sleet possible early. Snow accumulations of 1" or less. Mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 50%.

.New Year's Day... Windy. Considerable cloudiness. Snow showers and flurries. High 25 to 30 with falling temperatures. Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of snow 40%.

.Sunday Night... Windy and cold. Variable cloudiness. Flurries possible. Low zero to 5 above. Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph. Wind chills of 10 below to around 25 below.

.Monday... Cold. Partly cloudy. High 7 to 12.

.Monday Night... Mostly clear. Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Tuesday... Partly sunny. High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19 degrees
Low:    3 degrees

Sunrise Saturday: 7:54 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:30 PM CST

Tim

Late night-Friday AM flurries for Duluth with a 1-3" snow Central-Southern Minnesota.

2011-12-29T15:09:00.000-08:00

Issued at 3:06 PM CST, Thursday, December 29th, 2011

Tonight's clipper takes a southerly route
Southwest parts of our area could see up to 1" of snow late Tonight-Friday AM
Complex system for the holiday weekend, main impacts will probably be in Northern Minnesota
Arctic air and strong winds Sunday and Monday
Significant lake effect snow event possible for the South Shore snowbelts Sunday Night-Monday

Snowfall report for Wednesday Night-Thursday Morning, December 28th-29th, 2011
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

13 miles east-southeast of Gunflint Lake, MN (Cook County) 5.5"
Grand Portage, MN (Cook County) 5.0"
2 miles east-northeast of Hovland, MN (Cook County) 5.0"
3 miles west-southwest of Grand Marais, MN (Cook County) 5.0"
Lutsen, MN (Cook County) 4.5"
Sea Gull Lake, MN (Cook County) 3.5"
1 mile southwest of Tofte, MN (Cook County) 3.0"
Kabetogama, MN (St. Louis County) 2.7"
14 miles west of Isabella, MN (Lake County) 2.5"
2 miles east of Finland, MN (Lake County) 2.2"
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County) 2.1"
1 mile east of Payne, MN (St. Louis County) 2.0"
8 miles north of Bayfield, WI (Bayfield County) 1.5"
Silver Bay, MN (Lake County) 1.5"
Alborn, MN (St. Louis County) 1.3"
8 miles south-southwest of Cable, WI (Sawyer County) 1.2"
Culver, MN (St. Louis County) 1.0"
Ely, MN (St. Louis County) 1.0"
6 miles northeast of Cloverland, WI (Douglas County) 1.0"
Upson, WI (Iron County) 1.0"
Federal Dam, MN (Cass County) 1.0"
Dixon Lake, MN (Itasca County) 1.0"

5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 1.4" officical NWS total.

Weather Tidbits:

*Zero subzero days this month in the Twin Cities. First time this has happened since December of 2002 and only the 8th December in the last 120 years to feature an above zero temperature the entire month. Other years that featured no subzero temperatures in December: 1913, 1918, 1952, 1954, 1974, 2002 and 2011. (Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times)

*Today marks the 13th day in a row with an above average high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.

Snow update:

18 days so far this month has had at least a trace of snow at Duluth, Minnesota with 3 one inch or greater snowfall totals. With that said, just 7.1" of snow has fallen thru the 29th of December which is 9.3" below average.

Weather History:

On this date in 1999: A record high temperature of 46 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1002mb covered the Central-Southern Great Lakes late This Afternoon with low pressure of 994-998mb extending from Southern Saskatchewan Province to Northern Nebraska. Light snow and flurries tapered off during the Morning with partly to mostly cloudy skies through the day. Highs ranged from the upper teens to lower 20s along and north of Highway 2 with upper 20s to lower 30s in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. Winds Today were calm or from the north-northwest around 10 mph or less.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb flow was out of the west-northwest with one system off to our east with the next one diving SE into the Northern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery. 60-90 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls were occurring with the storm across the Northern Rockies/Western High Plains per RUC model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 3pm ranged from -8 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to +2/+6 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota.

Tonight (December 29th)

Low pressure will reach a Westcentral Minnesota to Northern Iowa line Overnight. Snow and mixed precipitation associated with this low is forecast to remain west-south of our immediate area, although some light snow could reach the Cass Lake, Brainerd Lakes and Pine City areas after Midnight. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with lows in the teens and lower 20s with some single digits in Northern Minnesota. Winds will be variable to east in direction at 12 mph or less.

Friday and Friday Night (December 30th)

Low pressure exits to our south/southeast on Friday. Some light snow or flurries are possible into early Friday Afternoon along and south of a line from Cass Lake to Sandstone to Shell Lake. Up to 1" of accumulation is possible for those areas. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue during this period with highs Tomorrow in the 20s and 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and 20s. North or west winds on Friday will turn south Friday Night, wind speeds will be under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast (December 31st-January 2nd)

Low pressure from Manitoba Province to South Dakota Saturday Morning will head E-NE as an upper level trough digs into the Upper Midwest this weekend. The low and upper trough, combined with an arctic front moving SE into the region will lead to some precipitation for Saturday and Sunday. Snow should be the main precipitation type in Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead while locations further south could have a mixture of snow, rain and possibly even a little freezing rain on Saturday before the precipitation transitions to snow Saturday Night and Sunday. Note: The greatest snowfall accumulations appear to be setting up north of Highway 2...This area could see a 1-4" snowfall between Saturday and Sunday, this would include the cities of International Falls, Bigfork, Crane Lake, Ely, Hibbing, and Grand Marais. Snowfall accumulations of 1" or less are forecast in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Highs on Saturday will mainly be in the 30s with lows Saturday Night in the teens and 20s. Much colder air works into the Upper Midwest for Sunday and Monday as low pressure deepens as it pulls off to our northeast while arctic high pressure of 1040+ mb builds in from the Western High Plains. The pressure gradient will tighten between the low and high, result from this will be for strong northwest winds with wind gusts possibly topping 30 mph Sunday and Sunday Night. 850mb temperatures will crash to the minus teens to around -20 degrees C for Sunday and Monday as a brief surge of arctic air invades the area. Temperatures on Sunday will likely fall into the single digits and teens during the day with lows Sunday Night in the single digits below to single digits above zero. Highs on Monday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Monday Night ranging from around 15 below to 5 above zero.

Note: Wind chills will likely fall to between 10 below to 30 below zero across the Northland from Sunday Afternoon into Monday.

Long Range Forecast (January 3rd-9th)

Cold temperatures will linger on Tuesday (1/3) then will see a warmup from mid to late next week. Highs could top the freezing mark sometime late next week based on the latest model data. There might be a weak disturbance with a dusting of snow Tuesday-Wednesday with another possible system sometime late next week-next weekend (1/6-1/8) time frame.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Considerable cloudiness. Flurries possible after Midnight. Low 13 to 18. Wind becoming east to northeast under 10 mph.

.Friday... Flurries possible early. Partly sunny. High 25 to 30. Wind northwest around 12 mph.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 17 to 22. Wind becoming south around 12 mph.

.New Year's Eve... Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

.Saturday Night... Light snow which could be mixed with freezing rain early. Mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Chance of precipitation 30%.

.New Year's Day... Breezy and turning colder. Snow showers and flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. High 25 to 30 with falling temperatures. Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph. Chance of snow 30%.

.Sunday Night... Breezy and cold. Variable cloudiness. Flurries possible. Low zero to 5 above. Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph. Wind chills of 10 below to around 25 below.

.Monday... Cold. Partly cloudy. High 8 to 13.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19 degrees
Low: 3 degrees

Sunrise Friday: 7:54 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 4:29 PM CST

Tim

Snow Overnight...Thursday AM commute could be a slow one

2011-12-28T19:23:00.000-08:00

Issued at 8:00 PM CST, Wednesday, December 28th, 2011

Much of the area will have a dusting to a few inches of new snow Tonight
Next clipper takes a more southerly track Thursday Night-Friday AM
A mild New Year's Eve, turns sharply colder and quite windy New Year's Day
Weekend rain/snow event?

Weather Tidbits:

*24th least snowiest start to a winter at Rochester, Minnesota. 6.6" of snow so far this season. (NWS La Crosse, WI)

*20th least snowiest start to a winter at La Crosse, Wisconsin. 4.3" of snow so far this season. (NWS La Crosse, WI)

*The past 6 months has been the 2nd warmest on record since 1873 in the Twin Cities. The temperature has been almost 5.0 degrees above average. (Minnesota State Climate Office)

*On Monday, December 26th, a 750 acres brush fire occurred near the town of Gully, Minnesota (Northwest part of the state) in Polk County. (Updraft blog MPR)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Warm air advection moved across the area Today which led to a brief period of flurries/light snow with accumulations of 1/2" or less. Some lake effect/enhanced snowfall also occurred Today along the North Shore of Lake Superior with 1.0" of new snow reported at Lutsen (Cook County) as of 6pm per NWS Duluth. High temperatures Today ranged from the upper teens in the Arrowhead with 20s to lower 30s elsewhere. Winds were from the south or east under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Fast northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest with a clipper system heading E/SE through the Eastern Dakotas per water vapor satellite imagery while a 130 knot upper level jet was found on the backside of this system across the Western Dakotas per RUC model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 8pm ranged from -10 degrees C in far Northeast Minnesota to +2/+4 degrees C in extreme Southwest Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (December 28th)

An area of low pressure currently in Eastern Dakota will move into Western Wisconsin by dawn. Light snow will affect much of our area during the night with some freezing rain possible as well for the Brainerd Lakes region. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows in the teens and 20s. Winds will be out of the south, east or north under 15 mph. Note: Total snowfall accumulations by Thursday Morning should generally be around 1" with a few spots picking up around 2" of snow. Up to 4" of snow is possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior, mainly northeast of Little Marais.

Thursday and Thursday Night (December 29th)

Low pressure in Western Wisconsin Tomorrow Morning will continue to bring some light snow/flurries to Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota. This low moves farther away during the day with dry weather returning to our area Thursday Afternoon. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with winds out of the north or west under 15 mph. The next clipper system will drop SE into the Northern Plains Thursday Night. This second low looks to take a more southerly track compared to Tonight's low, thus the main area of snow (1-2" amounts) should fall from Westcentral through Southcentral Minnesota. Our area will be on the northern fringes of this system with some flurries/light snow with up to 1" of accumulation possible mainly along and south of Highway 2. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast during this period with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and 20s. Winds will be out of the north or east under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast (December 30th-January 1st)

Low pressure passes south/southeast of Northern Minnesota Friday Morning...Could be some light snow and flurries around mainly during the Morning in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Friday Afternoon-Friday Night look dry at this time. Kind of a tricky setup for the weekend. Looks like one area of low pressure will pass by to our NW-N while a secondary low could develop in the Western High Plains, this low could then head northeast...Merging with the other low north of Lake Superior on Sunday. Any precipitation that falls Saturday and Saturday Evening would be in the form of rain or snow and possibly even a little bit of freezing rain. Colder air advects into the region late Saturday Night and Sunday with 850mb temperatures dropping to the teens below zero late in the weekend. Some snow and flurries are possible from late Saturday Night into Sunday. Too early to tell just how much snow, rain and ice we could see this holiday weekend..stay tuned! High temperatures on Friday will be in the 20s and 30s with highs on Saturday mainly in the 30s with some 40s possible in Southern areas. Highs on Sunday will be in the teens and 20s with falling temperatures during the day. Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the teens and 20s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits below to single digits above zero.

Long Range Forecast (January 2nd-8th)

A brief cold snap will affect the Upper Midwest early next week before temperatures warm back up once again from mid week thru next weekend. The flow aloft will transition from the N/NW back to the W/NW after Tuesday of next week the way it looks now. No big storms are forecast during this period.

Note: A period of significant lake effect snow could occur sometime Sunday-Monday along the South Shore of Lake Superior. Ashland and Iron Counties are at greatest risk for the possibility of a significant snowfall with a lesser chance in Bayfield and Douglas County.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Light snow developing by Midnight. Low 18 to 23. Wind east to southeast around 12 mph.

.Thursday... Light snow early. Total accumulations 1-2". Considerable cloudiness. High 25 to 30. Wind north, becoming west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible late. Low 13 to 18. Wind becoming east around 12 mph. Chance of snow 30%.

.Friday... Light snow or flurries possible during the Morning. Up to 1" of accumulation possible. Considerable cloudiness. High 25 to 30. Chance of snow 30%.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 17 to 22.

.New Year's Eve... Mostly cloudy. High 31 to 36.

.Saturday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or mixed precipitation possible. Low 20 to 25. Chance of precipitation 30%.

.New Year's Day... Breezy and turning colder. Mostly cloudy. Light snow and flurries. High 25 to 30 with falling temperatures. Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph. Chance of snow 30%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 19 degrees
Low: 3 degrees

Sunrise Thursday: 7:54 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 4:28 PM CST

Tim

Chilly one Tonight. Mild temperatures for the rest of the week.

2011-12-27T15:39:00.000-08:00

Issued at 4:26 PM CST, Tuesday, December 27th, 2011

Cold temperatures Tonight
A light dusting of snow possible for some on Wednesday
A few inches of snow possible Wednesday Night-early Friday?
Warmup begins on Wednesday and lingers thru Saturday

A recap of the unseasonably warm temperatures that covered Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Monday, December 26th.

Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN: 43 degrees *record for the day
International Falls, MN: 41 degrees
Brainerd, MN: 47 degrees
Hibbing, MN: 44 degrees
Grand Marais, MN: 42 degrees
Ashland, WI: 49 degrees
Hayward, WI: 46 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN: 46 degrees
Ely, MN: 43 degrees
Bigfork, MN: 43 degrees
Grand Rapids, MN: 45 degrees
Pine River, MN: 46 degrees
Aitkin, MN: 46 degrees
Moose Lake, MN: 46 degrees
Hinckley, MN: 46 degrees
Superior, WI: 48 degrees
Siren, WI: 48 degrees
Cass Lake, MN: 47 degrees
Gurney, WI: 45 degrees
Upson, WI: 46 degrees
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI: 49 degrees

Minneapolis, MN: 52 degrees *record for the day
Redwood Falls, MN: 53 degrees
Canby, MN: 52 degrees
Hutchinson, MN: 53 degrees
New Ulm, MN: 54 degrees
Montevideo, MN: 54 degrees
Willmar, MN: 52 degrees
St. James, MN: 52 degrees
Olivia, MN: 52 degrees

Weather Tidbits:

*21.9 degrees...Average December temperature thru the 26th at Duluth, Minnesota. This is 6.5 degrees above normal. (NWS Duluth)

*19.3 degrees...Average December temperature thru the 26th at International Falls, Minnesota. This is 8.7 degrees above normal. (NWS Duluth)

*552 tornado deaths in the U.S. in 2011 compared to 45, 21 and 126 in the previous 3 years. (NOAA)

Weather History:

On this date in 2003: A record high temperature of 40 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Much colder day compared to Monday. Temperatures This Afternoon ranged from the upper single digits from International Falls to Cook to Grand Marais with teens and 20s farther south. Partly to mostly sunny skies occurred Today with some snow showers and flurries through the day along the South Shore of Lake Superior and earlier in the day for the rest of us. Winds Today were from the north or northwest under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Big story Today is the strong storm system moving thru the Eastern U.S. with widespread 150-210 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls occurring in that area per RUC model analysis. W/NW H5 flow covered the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis with a series of disturbances lined up from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains. 850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -18 degrees C in Northern Ontario Province to -10 degrees C in Northcentral Minnesota to -2 degrees C in Eastern South Dakota to +6 degrees C in Southeast Montana/Northeast Wyoming.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (December 27th)

Mostly clear skies during the Evening will give way to increasing cloudiness Overnight with some flurries or snow showers possible after 3am from International Falls to Walker to Brainerd. Low temperatures will range from the single digits and teens below zero in far Northern and far Northeast Minnesota to the single digits and teens elsewhere. Light or calm winds during the Evening will become southeast under 10 mph during the night.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (December 28th)

A shot of warm air advection combined with a weak wave passing through the region could lead to some flurries or light snow showers on Wednesday, little if any snow accumulation is expected though, the exception to this could be along the North Shore of Lake Superior where a S-SE wind could lead to some lake effect snow showers Tomorrow northeast of Duluth with minor accumulations of around 1" possible. Highs Tomorrow will be in the teens and 20s. A clipper low will move into the Upper Midwest Wednesday Night with a period of light snow. Could see a 1-2" snowfall Wednesday Night across the Northland. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow with mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow Night. Winds during this period will be out of the south, east or west under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (December 29th-31st)

One low exits to our south/east Thursday Morning with some lingering light snow/flurries at that time. The next low heads southeast out of the Northern Plains Thursday Evening-Friday Morning...Model guidance varies on the timing and track of this second low so it remains to be seen on where the light accumulating snow band sets up for Thursday PM-Friday AM. A third low looks like it will pass north of our area this weekend with the bulk of the accumulating snow staying north of the Upper Midwest, although it could clip extreme Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead. High temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be in the 20s and 30s with highs on Saturday in the 30s, but a few 40s are possible in Southern areas. Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast (January 1st-7th)

Not much change in the overall weather pattern as it continues to look like the Upper Midwest will be dominated by a W/NW 500mb flow thru the 1st week of January. This type of flow should help to keep the bulk of the arctic air north of Minnesota during this period. No big systems for Minnesota for early January, but weak disturbances could affect the region on occasion.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Clear with increasing cloudiness Overnight. Low 5 to 10. Wind variable around 10 mph becoming southeast.

.Wednesday... Scattered snow showers and flurries. Considerable cloudiness. High 21 to 26. Wind southeast at 8 to 14 mph. Chance of snow 30%.

.Wednesday Night... Light snow possible mainly after 9pm. Mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20. Wind east to southeast around 12 mph. Chance of snow 40%.

.Thursday... Light snow possible early. Total accumulations around 1". Mostly cloudy. High 25 to 30. Chance of snow 40%.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. Low 12 to 17. Chance of snow 30%.

.Friday... Partly sunny. Flurries possible. High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 17 to 22.

.New Years Eve... Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 20 degrees
Low: 3 degrees

Sunrise Wednesday: 7:53 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday: 4:27 PM CST

Tim

Very warm Today. One day cold blast for Tuesday.

2011-12-26T16:03:00.000-08:00

Issued at 5:14 PM CST, Monday, December 26th, 2011

Record warmth in Minnesota Today
Turning colder on Tuesday
Warms up mid-week into the weekend
Scattered snow showers late Tonight-Tuesday
Couple clippers, minor snow events possible mid-week thru the weekend

*RECORD WARMTH IN MINNESOTA TODAY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth:

Today's High: 43 degrees.
Previous record high: 42 degrees set in 1908 and 1877.

Minneapolis:

Today's High: 52 degrees.
Previous record high: 51 degrees set in 1936.

St. Cloud:

Today's High: 49 degrees
Previous record high: 48 degrees set in 1905.

Snow depth report as of 6am CST Monday, December 26th, 2011
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, MN.

Duluth, MN: 3.0" (NWS location)
International Falls, MN: 4.0"
Bruno, MN: 2.0"
Cook, MN: 4.0"
Floodwood, MN: 1.0"
Grand Portage, MN: 4.0"
Kabetogama, MN: 5.0"
3 miles east of Orr, MN: 4.0"
Upson, WI: 7.0"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI: 3.0"
Solon Springs, WI: 1.0"

Weather Tidbits:

*Today marks the 9th day this month with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

*Today marks the 2nd day this month with a high temperature of at least 40 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Widespread 30s and 40s in the Northland Today with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies along with a brisk southwesterly wind at 10 to 25 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Same old same old...Split flow continues. A vigorous disturbance in the northern branch of the jet stream was moving east into the Red River Valley of Northwest Minnesota early This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery while a potent disturbance in the southern branch of the jet stream heads east through Central Texas. These two systems will eventually merge, but not until they get into the Northeastern U.S. Strong 500mb height falls of 150-210 meters per 12 hours covered much of the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains This Afternoon per RUC model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 5pm ranged from +2 degrees C from Southern Minnesota to Northeast Minnesota to -4 degrees C in far Northeast North Dakota to -12 degrees C in Central Manitoba Province.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (December 26th)

Deep low pressure will pass by to our north/east with an arctic front shifting south out of Southern Manitoba and Southern Ontario Province. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with areas of light snow and flurries which could start out as some drizzle or freezing drizzle in some spots. New snowfall accumulations should remain less than 1". Lows Tonight will range from the single digits and teens in Northern Minnesota to the 20s and lower 30s in Northwest Wisconsin. Winds will be out of the southwest or north-northwest at 10 to 25 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (December 27th)

High temperatures on Tuesday will be 20 to 30+ degrees colder compared to Today...With that said Tomorrow's high temperatures will be closer to where they should be for late December. Highs will be in the teens and 20s with lows Tuesday Night in the single digits and teens. North winds at 10 to 20 mph are forecast on Tuesday with north or east winds Tuesday Night at 5 to 15 mph. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with Morning flurries/snow showers possible with accumulations under 1". Lake effect snow could affect the South Shore of Lake Superior on Tuesday with 1-3" of accumulation from Northern Bayfield to Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin.

Extended Forecast (December 28th-30th)

A couple clipper systems will pass through the Upper Midwest from Wednesday through Friday. No big snow events are expected with this type of pattern, but the possibility does exist for a dusting to a few inches of snow from mid to late week. High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with low temperatures Wednesday Night and Thursday Night in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast (December 31st-January 6th)

Low pressure is forecast to pass north of our area this weekend, this puts the Upper Midwest in the warm sector with little or no precipitation based on latest model guidance. Next week looks fairly quiet at this time with no big pushes of arctic air the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers or flurries possible late. Accumulations under 1". Low 17 to 22. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming north to northwest at 15 to 25 mph late.

.Tuesday... Colder.  Partly sunny. Morning flurries possible. High 30 to 35 early, falling to the teens and 20s. Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 5 to 10. Wind becoming east at 5 to 10 mph.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. High 25 to 30. Chance of snow 30%.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. Low 15 to 20. Chance of snow 30%.

.Thursday... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. High 25 to 30. Chance of snow 30%.

.Thursday Night... Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 15 to 20.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 28 to 33.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 20 degrees
Low:    4 degrees

Sunrise Tuesday: 7:53 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:26 PM CST

Tim

Snow showers possible late Tonight&Sunday AM. Merry Christmas!

2011-12-24T18:02:00.000-08:00

Issued at 7:21 PM CST, Saturday, December 24th, 2011

Scattered snow showers/flurries Tonight and Sunday
Gusty winds on Monday
Warmer than average temperatures the next several days, Monday looks really warm
A couple chances for snow beginning the middle of next week

Weather Tidbits:

*45.6% of the U.S. was covered by snow at this time last year compared to 30.8% this year. (NOHRSC)

*96% of the Upper Midwest was covered by snow at this time last year compared to just 23.4% this year. (NOHRSC)

Weather History:

On this date in 2009: 11.0" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A warm front has been edging east across Minnesota Today. Partly to mostly cloudy skies were common in our area with above average temperatures with highs in the 20s and 30s. Winds were out of the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

...Warm temperatures in Southern Minnesota Today...

Appleton: 46 degrees
Canby: 47 degrees
Fairmont: 46 degrees
Granite Falls: 49 degrees
Makato: 45 degrees
Montevideo: 48 degrees
St. James: 48 degrees
Olivia: 46 degrees
New Ulm: 46 degrees

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow covered the region with a strong 120-140 knot jet stream blasting SE out of Central Saskatchewan and Western North Dakota. A vigorous disturbance was moving southeast through the Manitoba Lakes This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 7pm ranged from zero to -2 degrees C in Central/Northern Minnesota to +4 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (December 24th)

Upper level disturbance currently in Southern Manitoba Province will move E/SE during the night. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur Tonight with scattered snow showers and flurries. Accumulations should remain under 1", with any meaningful snow showers generally affecting locations along and north of Highway 2. Lows Tonight will be in the teens and 20s with west winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Christmas Day and Night (December 25th)

A vigorous upper level disturbance will exit our area to the south/east on Sunday. Scattered snow showers and flurries are possible Tomorrow from Northern Minnesota to Northwest Wisconsin with dry conditions from Walker to Brainerd to Pine City. All areas will be dry Sunday Night. Might pick up 1-2" of snow Tomorrow from Northern Ashland to Iron Counties Wisconsin due to some lake effect...Elsewhere, snow accumulations if any would be less than 1". Highs on Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Sunday Night in the teens and 20s. Northwest or west winds will occur during this period at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (December 26th-28th)

Deep low pressure will move across Ontario Province on Monday with strong west winds and unseasonably warm temperatures in place over the Upper Midwest. 850mb temperatures are forecasted to climb into the +3 to +8 degree C range on Monday which should result in widespread 30s and 40s for daytime highs in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin while some 50s and even a few 60 degree temperatures occur in Southern Minnesota where there is little if any snow on the ground. A cold front attached to that Ontario low will move through our area on Monday but no precipitation is expected with this front. Looks mainly dry and slightly cooler, but still above average for this time of year from Monday Night through Tuesday Night. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the teens and 20s with highs on Tuesday in the 20s. Wednesday could bring with it a chance for some light snow and flurries as low pressure approaches from the W/NW. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s to lower 30s.

Long Range Forecast (December 29th-January 4th)

No signs of any arctic blasts for the Upper Midwest during this period. Looks like a west or northwest upper level flow continues into early Janaury with fast moving low pressure systems affecting the area. Any one of those disturbances could bring some snow to the Northland, but the track of these systems are handled differently by the various computer models. One possible snow event could take place Wednesday-Thursday, December 28th-29th. Another one could occur sometime around December 31st. It doesn't look like a good setup for a substanial amount of snow into early January, but if these lows dip south of Lake Superior, then some lake enhanced/effect snow could develop at times near Lake Superior which could give a little boost to the otherwise light amounts of snow.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible Overnight. Low 20 to 25. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph. Snow accumulations less than 1".

.Christmas Day... Snow showers or flurries possible during the Morning. Partly sunny. High 30 to 35. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Snow accumulations less than 1".

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday... Partly sunny and breezy. Unseasonably warm. High 37 to 42. West winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.

.Monday Night... Variable cloudiness. Low 17 to 22.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 25 to 30.

.Tuesday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.

.Wednesday... Flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 20 degrees
Low: 4 degrees

Sunrise Sunday: 7:52 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 4:25 PM CST

Tim

0.5-5.0" of SNOW Today across the Northland. Little to no arctic air thru the 1st week of January.

2011-12-23T15:21:00.000-08:00

Issued at 4:06 PM CST, Friday, December 23rd, 2011

Lingering flurries/light snow This Evening
Above average temperatures Saturday thru Monday
Flurries could fall at times this weekend

Snowfall report for Friday, December 23rd, 2011
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

11 miles northeast of Grand Marais, MN (Cook County) 5.0"
3 miles southwest of Snow Bank Lake, MN (Lake County) 3.0"
Bigfork, MN (Itasca County) 2.5"
7 miles northwest of Two Harbors, MN (Lake County) 2.4"
3 miles east of Orr, MN (St. Louis County) 2.3"
4 miles south of Sawyer, MN (Carlton County) 2.2"
Moose Lake, MN (Carlton County) 2.0"
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County) 2.0"
Lutsen, MN (Cook County) 2.0"
Cloquet, MN (Carlton County) 2.0"
Willow River, MN (Pine County) 2.0"
2 miles west of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County) 2.0"
20 miles north of Tofte, MN (Cook County) 1.7" Note: Snow depth: 9.0"
Alborn, MN (St. Louis County) 1.5"
Cotton, MN (St. Louis County) 1.5"
1 mile south of Solon Springs, WI (Douglas County) 1.5"
Two Harbors, MN (Lake County) 1.2"
15 miles north of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County) 1.0"
3 miles north of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County) 0.5"

Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 2.2" (Official total at the National Weather Service)

Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 1.8" (Measured in Duluth Heights)
Proctor, MN (St. Louis County) 1.8"
Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 1.7" (Measured in West Duluth)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1016mb has moved into Northeast Minnesota late This Afternoon. Widespread snow fell in much of our area This Morning into the early Afternoon hours with pockets of snow showers/flurries lingering during the mid-late Afternoon. The least amount of snow was in Southwest parts of our area, generally around the Brainerd Lakes while the greatest snowfall totals occurred in the Arrowhead, along the higher terrain adjacent to Lake Superior. Snowfall accumulations ranged from one half to 5.0" from southwest to northeast in our local area Today. Some sunshine was seen in the Brainerd area Today while overcast skies prevailed elsewhere. High temperatures were in the 20s with some 30s from Brainerd to Moose Lake. Winds Today were from the south or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

A small, but compact disturbance with an area of 60 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls was shifting E-SE across the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. A 110 knot jet streak was found on the backside of this disturbance in Eastern Minnesota late Today. 850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -10 degrees C in Northeast Minnesota to -2 degrees C in extreme Southwest Minnesota while warm air was once again expanding across the Northern Rockies/Western High Plains with +2 to +6 degree C 850mb temperatures This Afternoon per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (December 23rd)

Low pressure will continue to exit our area to the east. Light snow and flurries will continue into mid-Evening with additional accumulations under 1". Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with flurries possible in Northern Minnesota Overnight as a new disturbance approaches from the northwest. Lows will be in the teens with some spots dipping into the single digits. Winds will be out of the northwest or west-southwest under 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (December 24th)

Might be some flurries on Saturday in far Northern-Northeast Minnesota, otherwise it looks dry Tomorrow under partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the 20s and 30s with west or southwest winds at up to 20 mph. A vigorous disturbance will approach our area from the northwest Saturday Night and this feature could bring some snow showers/flurries to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Overnight. Lows Saturday Night will be in the teens to lower 20s with partly to mostly cloudy skies along with west winds at up to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast (December 25th-27th)

Flurries are possible on Sunday with highs in the 20s to lower 30s. Dry for Sunday Night and Monday while warm air blasts east out of the Northern Rockies with 850mb temperatures climbing to zero to +4 degrees C on Monday. Lows Sunday Night will be in the teens and 20s with highs on Monday mainly in the 30s, but a few 40s are possible in Southern areas. Cold front moves through the region early next week with mainly dry conditions continuing for Monday Night and Tuesday. Forecasted lows Monday Night: Teens and 20s with highs on Tuesday mainly in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast (December 28th-January 3rd)

A couple low pressure systems are expected to move east or east-southeast out of the Pacific Northwest and or Western Canada during this period. The exact tracks of these lows are somewhat uncertain at this time...Each one of these lows could bring some snow to parts of the Northland, but how much is uncertain due to the differing low pressure tracks per Today's computer models. Timing of the waves: One is possible sometime December 28th-29th, another one is possible sometime New Years weekend the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Light snow and flurries ending by mid-Evening. Mostly cloudy with some clearing late. Low 12 to 17. Wind west around 12 mph.

.Christmas Eve... Partly to mostly sunny. High 28 to 33. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 17 to 22. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Christmas Day... Variable cloudiness. Flurries possible. High 28 to 33.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 32 to 37.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 20 degrees
Low: 4 degrees

Sunrise Saturday: 7:52 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:24 PM CST

Tim

Get ready for some snow on Friday!

2011-12-22T18:52:00.000-08:00

Issued at 8:00 PM CST, Thursday, December 22nd, 2011

Late night lake effect snow showers along the North Shore
Clipper system brings a dusting to a couple inches of snow to the Northland on Friday
Holiday weekend flurries with above average temperatures

Weather Tidbits:

*December will likely be the 7th consecutive month with an above average monthly temperature in the Twin Cities. Below is the month by month temperature surplus during this warm streak. (MPR. Updraft blog)

June: +1.1 degrees
July: +5.6 degrees (6th warmest on record)
August: +2.4 degrees
September: +0.9 degrees
October: +6.4 degrees (8th warmest on record)
November: +5.6 degrees (11th warmest on record)
December: +5.0 degrees? (10th warmest on record?)

December looks like it will go in the books as the 6th consecutive month with an above average temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.

*Average December temperature thru the 21st: 21.1 degrees which is 4.9 degrees above average.

*8 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

*3 days so far this month with a low temperature of zero degrees or below at Duluth, Minnesota.

*October 23rd: The last time we had at least 0.25" of precipitation in a calendar day at Duluth, Minnesota. 0.34" of precipitation fell that day.

*52 preliminary severe weather reports (1 tornado) so far Today per SPC. Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabma and Georgia were affected.

Weather History:

On this date in 1989 and 1983: A record low temperature of -22 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure was over the Western High Plains and over Eastern Ontario Province early This Evening. Partly to mostly sunny skies were common Today with scattered flurries in Northern Minnesota and some lake effect snow showers/flurries along the South Shore of Lake Superior. Highs Today were in the lower 20s in far Northern Minnesota to the middle 20s and lower 30s elsewhere. Winds were out of the northwest or south-southwest under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest with an upper level disturbance heading E-SE across Northern Wisconsin with another disturbance heading SE out of Manitoba Province per water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 7pm ranged from -18 degrees C in Central Ontario Province to -10 degrees C in Central Minnesota to -4 degrees C in the Central Dakotas.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (December 22nd)

Winds turning to the south combined with enough cold air in place will cause some lake effect snow showers late Tonight along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Silver Bay, Lutsen, Grand Marais and Grand Portage are some cities that could pick up an inch of new snow by dawn. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with a few Evening flurries in Northeast Minnesota. Light snow associated with the disturbance in Manitoba Province should reach Northcentral parts of Minnesota between 2-4am with snow reaching the Iron Range and Brainerd Lakes region between 4-6am. Lows Tonight will mainly be in the teens with some single digits in the Arrowhead and in parts of Northwest Wisconsin. Winds will become south or southwest under 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (December 23rd)

Low pressure will drop E-SE thru Northern Minnesota and into Northcentral Lake Superior on Friday. This low combined with a 100 knot jet streak and a pretty strong disturbance will cause enough lift to generate some snow on Friday. The bulk of the snow should come down before Noon in Northern-Eastern Minnesota while snow could linger into mid-late Afternoon in parts of Northwest Wisconsin and in the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

Note: Snowfall accumulations will range from 1-2" north of a line from Walker to Two Harbors with localized higher amounts of 3-4" possible along the North Shore, from Tofte and Lutsen, to Grand Marais and Grand Portage. Snowfall totals of 1" or less is expected for Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota.

Dry weather will return to the entire area Friday Night. High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 20s to lower 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens with some single digits in Northern Minnesota. Winds will shift from the south-southwest to the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (December 24th-26th)

Looks like another disturbance or two will affect our area during the weekend with occasional snow flurries, nothing more than a dusting of accumulation is expected though at this time. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s with highs on Monday mianly in the 30s. Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the teens to lower 20s.

Long Range Forecast (December 27th-January 2nd)

Computer models are hinting at a developing baroclinic zone (temperature gradient) becoming established over or near the Northern U.S./Upper Midwest during this period. A couple low pressure systems are forecasted to track along this temperature gradient. Although this pattern isn't favorable for big snow events for our area, it is favorable for some minor snow events every couple of days. The exact track of these low pressure systems are uncertain at this time as it's unclear on where the baroclinic zone sets up during the final week of 2011 into the first 2 days of January. One thing that does seem certain is the lack of arctic air in the Upper Midwest through early January.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Considerable cloudiness. Low 11 to 16. Wind south to southwest around 12 mph.

.Friday... Light snow during the Morning and early Afternoon hours. Total accumulations around 1.0-1.5". Mostly cloudy. High 25 to 30. Wind south to southwest, becoming west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 12 to 17. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Christmas Eve... Partly sunny. High 28 to 33.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 17 to 22.

.Christmas Day... Partly sunny. Flurries possible. High 30 to 35.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.

.Monday... Partly cloudy. High 32 to 37.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 20 degrees
Low: 5 degrees

Sunrise Friday: 7:51 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 4:24 PM CST

Tim

A little chilly Thursday. Some lake effect snow east of the Twin Ports late Tonight-Thursday.

2011-12-21T18:42:00.000-08:00

Issued at 8:04 PM CST, Wednesday, December 21st, 2011

Lake effect snow showers for the South Shore of Lake Superior late Tonight-Thursday
A few flurries elsewhere into Thursday AM
Clipper system could swipe Northern Minnesota with a bit of snow on Friday
Temperatures for the most part will be above average thru early next week

Weather Tidbits:

51.5"...Snowfall total at this time last year (Duluth NWS)
  7.1"...Snowfall total so far this year (Duluth NWS)

Weather History:

On this date last year: 5.8" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 1989: A record low temperature of -28 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold front moved southeast across our area Today. This front brought some light snow or mixed precipitation to parts of Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with a few flurries elsewhere. Snowfall accumulations in Northwest Wisconsin were light, generally under 1". Highs Today under mostly cloudy skies were in the upper 20s to middle 30s with northwest or southwest winds under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough was digging south thru the Central Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery. Westerly flow aloft prevailed in the Upper Midwest with a colder airmass moving in as 850mb temperatures drop into the -12 to -16 degree C range from far Northwest Minnesota to Central Ontario Province to zero to -2 degrees C across Southern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Thursday Night (December 21st-22nd)

A few flurries are possible into Thursday Morning with lake effect snow showers developing along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin. 1-3" of snow could accumulate by Thursday Afternoon from Northern Douglas County, east to Iron County Wisconsin. Lows Tonight will be teens to around 20 degrees with some single digits in Northern Minnesota. Highs Tomorrow will be in the teens and 20s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted Tonight and Thursday with clear to partly cloudy skies Thursday Night. Winds during this period will be out of the northwest or north at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts Tonight.

Extended Forecast (December 23rd-25th)

An area of low pressure will pass to our N/NE on Friday. Some light snow and flurries could affect parts of Northern Minnesota and maybe Northwest Wisconsin during the day Friday with up to 1" of accumulation possible, mainly east and north of an International Falls to Hibbing to Silver Bay line. Highs on Friday will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees. Looks dry Friday Night with lows in the single digits and teens. Could be another disturbance or two passing by to our north during the holiday weekend, nothing more than a few flurries would occur in our area for Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s on Saturday with mainly 30s for Sunday. Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast (December 26th-January 1st)

No big storm systems or extreme cold for the Upper Midwest during this period. GFS ensembles do become quite noisy by the middle/end of next week, this could signal a slow change in the pattern as we exit 2011 and begin 2012.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Considerable cloudiness. Flurries possible. Low 13 to 18. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. Morning flurries possible. High 18 to 23. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 7 to 12. Wind west around 12 mph.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 13 to 18.

.Christmas Eve... Partly cloudy. High 28 to 33.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 17 to 22.

.Christmas Day... Partly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 20 degrees
Low:    5 degrees

Sunrise Thursday: 7:51 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim

Winter officially begins on Wednesday, probably won't look/feel like winter until March:)

2011-12-20T18:12:00.000-08:00

Issued at 7:24 PM CST, Tuesday, December 20th, 2011

A chance for some snow showers/flurries thru Wednesday Evening
Christmas weekend looks quite toasty..considering the time of year
No signs of any major cold snaps or big storms thru early January

Weather History:

On this date last year, the low temperature was -8 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Southwest winds, mostly sunny skies and a lack of snow cover outside of the South Shore snowbelts and in parts of the Arrowhead/Gunflint Trail areas resulted in temperatures getting back into the 30s in most of our area Today. Winds were out of the southwest at 5 to 15 mph with some higher gusts, especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

West flow at 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest while an upper level trough digs SE from Western Canada along with it's 90-150 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. Warm air has returned to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with 7pm 850mb temperatures ranging from +4 to +8 degrees C in the Dakotas to zero degrees C in the southeast half of Minnesota per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Wednesday Night (December 20th-21st)

A cold front will move east-southeast out of the Northern Plains Tonight and will move through our area on Wednesday. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur during this period with snow showers and flurries possible at times...There may also be a little bit of light freezing drizzle, especially late Tonight and Wednesday Morning. Any precipitation that does fall should remain on the light side with snowfall accumulations of one half inch at best. Lows Tonight and Wednesday Night will be in the teens and 20s with highs on Wednesday in the 20s and 30s. South or southwest winds Tonight will become northwest Wednesday and Wednesday Night, wind speeds during this period will range from 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast (December 22nd-24th)

Could be some lake effect snow showers in Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin on Thursday with a 1-3" accumulation possible. Looks generally dry elsewhere. An area of low pressure will pass by to our north on Friday with some flurries possible in Northern Minnesota. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Thursday Night in the single digits and teens. Highs on Friday will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with lows Friday Night mainly in the teens. Highs for Christmas Eve (Saturday) will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Saturday Night in the teens to around 20 degrees.

Long Range Forecast (December 25th-31st)

Looks dry and mild for Christmas Day (Sunday) high temperatures should reach the 30s in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota with 20s for the Arrowhead and Northern Minnesota. Could be a couple systems passing by to our north during the final week of December, but no big precipitation events are anticipated for our area. Temperatures should remain at or above average as we close out 2011.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Mostly clear during the Evening. Becoming mostly cloudy Overnight. Low 18 to 23. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Snow showers or flurries possible...Accumulations of 0.1 to 0.3" possible. Considerable cloudiness. High 29 to 34. Wind southwest, becoming west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night...  Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 15 to 20. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 20 to 25.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 7 to 12.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 13 to 18.

.Christmas Eve... Partly cloudy. High 28 to 33.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 21 degrees
Low:    5 degrees

Sunrise Wednesday: 7:51 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim

Blizzard rages on Tonight in parts of the Western High Plains/Southern Plains. Snow drought continues in Minnesota!

2011-12-19T15:43:00.000-08:00

Issued at 4:33 PM CST, Monday, December 19th, 2011

Clouds linger Tonight. Spotty flakes/light freezing drizzle?
High temps get close to or exceed the freezing mark on Wednesday
Occasional flurries from mid-week thru the weekend

Snow drought isn't only affecting the Northland, much of Northern Michigan is having it's least snowiest or 2nd least snowiest start to the season. 2011-2012 Seasonal snowfall thru December 19th.

Source: NWS Gaylord, Michigan

Alpena, MI:

Snowfall total: 1.0" (1st least snowy)
Average: 27.4"
Departure from average: -26.4"

Gaylord, MI:

Snowfall total: 13.8" (2nd least snowy)
Average: 55.8"
Departure from average: -42.0"

Houghton Lake, MI:

Snowfall total: 1.7" (2nd least snowy)
Average: 53.8"
Departure from average: -41.8"

Traverse City, MI:

Snowfall total: 3.5" (1st least snowy)
Average: 31.4"
Departure from average: -27.9"

Snow Depth report as of Monday, December 19th, 2011
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN: 2.0" (NWS total)
International Falls, MN: 2.0"
Embarrass, MN: 1.0"
4 miles east of Island Lake, MN: 2.0"
Kabetogama, MN: 4.0"
2 miles south of Tower, MN: 2.0"
Finland, MN: 4.0"
Gurney, WI: 5.0"
Upson, WI: 5.0"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI: 3.0"
Sarona, WI: 1.0"

*Record high temperature report*
Source: Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times

St. Cloud, Minnesota: 47 degrees on Sunday, December 18th. New record high temperature for the date...Previous record was 46 degrees set in 1939.

Mobridge, South Dakota: 60 degrees on Sunday, December 18th. New all-time record high temperature for the date.

Weather Tidbits:

*16.7% of the Upper Midwest is covered by snow as of December 19th compared to 86.3% at this time last year. (NOHRSC)

*20.9% of the U.S. is covered by snow as of December 19th compared to 52.5% at this time last year. (NOHRSC)

Weather History:

On this date in 2008: 7.3" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 1983: A record low temperature of -30 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Skies remained mostly cloudy in our area with temperatures about 10 to 20 degrees cooler compared to Sunday, but still near to about 5 degrees above average for this time of year. Highs Today were generally in the 20s with upper teens in far Northern Minnesota. Scattered snow flurries and even some patchy light freezing drizzle lingered most of the day, especially around the Iron Range, through the Twin Ports and into far Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W/NW 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest with a 120-140 knot jet stream extending from Eastern Minnesota to Southern Quebec Province per RUC model analysis. A strong upper level low was moving E/NE thru New Mexico and West Texas with another potent upper level low dropping S/SE thru Western California per water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -12 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to -5 degrees C in Southern Minnesota. An area of warmth was re-emerging in the Northern Rockies with early Evening 850mb temperatures of +2 to +6 degrees C from Northern Montana to Southwestern Canada per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

High pressure over Western South Dakota late This Afternoon will move east of our area by Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. Mostly cloudy skies will occur Tonight with patchy flurries/light freezing drizzle possible mainly during the Evening. Looks dry Tuesday and Tuesday Night. Lows Tonight will mainly be in the teens with some single digits possible in Northern Minnesota. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with lows Tuesday Night in the teens to lower 20s. Winds will be out of the northwest Tonight and the southwest Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night, wind speeds will vary between 10 and 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected thru the end of December. A persistent west or west-northwest 500mb flow remains in place across the Upper Midwest with the occasional cold frontal passage bringing flurries and possibly a light dusting of snow to some parts of our area into next week. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 30s with lows Wednesday Night in the teens. Highs on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Thursday Night in the single digits and teens.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Considerable cloudiness. Flurries possible at times, mainly This Evening. Low 12 to 17. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 25 to 30. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 17 to 22. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 20 to 25.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 7 to 12.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 21 degrees
Low: 6 degrees

Sunrise Tuesday: 7:50 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 4:22 PM CST

Tim

Blizzard Mon-Tue for parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and New Mexico. Hot in parts of Minny Today. Pack get beat, 1st time in 364 days!

2011-12-18T18:09:00.000-08:00

Issued at 7:41 PM CST, Sunday, December 18th, 2011

Scattered flurries/patchy light freezing drizzle possible Tonight
Mid-week flakes possible
Temperatures near to above average into Christmas weekend

Unseasonably warm temperatures covered most of Minnesota Today.

High temperature report for Sunday, December 18th, 2011
Source: National Weather Service Duluth and Chanhassen, Minnesota

Duluth, MN: 38 degrees
International Falls, MN: 38 degrees
Brainerd, MN: 47 degrees
Hibbing, MN: 41 degrees
Ashland, WI: 43 degrees
Hayward, WI: 42 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN: 43 degrees
Eveleth, MN: 41 degrees
Bigfork, MN: 41 degrees
Grand Rapids, MN: 43 degrees
Longville, MN: 45 degrees
Pine River, MN: 46 degrees
Aitkin, MN: 45 degrees
Superior, WI: 45 degrees
Siren, WI: 44 degrees
Phillips, WI: 43 degrees

Redwood Falls, MN: 50 degrees
Appleton, MN: 57 degrees
Canby, MN: 58 degrees
Montevideo, MN: 61 degrees
Morris, MN: 55 degrees
Willmar, MN: 54 degrees
Olivia, MN: 52 degrees
Sauk Centre, MN: 52 degrees

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 998mb was centered in Central Ontario Province early This Evening with a cold front heading southeast into Eastern Minnesota. Partly to mostly sunny skies were found in our area Today with the second Sunday in a row to feature high temperatures some 15 to around 25 degrees above average for mid-December! Highs Today were in the 30s and 40s with southwest or west-northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level trough digging S/SE across the Pacific Northwest with an upper level low churning E-NE across Arizona. A fast west to east flow was in place across the Upper Midwest with a 120 knot jet streak located just north of Minnesota early This Evening per RUC model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 7pm ranged from -2 degrees C in Northwest Minnesota to +10 degrees C in the Southwest half of Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Monday Night:

A few flurries or patchy light freezing drizzle is possible Tonight in parts of Northern Minnesota, otherwise this period looks like a dry one under partly to mostly cloudy skies. A cold front will exit to our south/east by late Tonight, then high pressure builds in from the Northern Rockies. Lows Tonight will be in the teens and 20s with some single digits possible in far Northern Minnesota. Highs on Monday will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with some far Northern Minnesota communities holding in the teens. Lows Monday Night will be in the single digits and teens. Winds during this period will be out of the northwest at under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Tuesday will be dry with highs in the 20s to lower 30s. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the teens to lower 20s. Low pressure will lift northeast out of Texas during the Monday-Wednesday time period, this system will stay well to our southeast thus no precipitation is expected for our area. Note: This Southern Plains storm will cause blizzard conditions Monday-Tuesday in parts of New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas...A 6-14" snow band is forecasted to fall in some parts of those states by Tuesday. A cold front will sail through our local area around mid-week and some flurries could accompany that front. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Wednesday Night in the teens to around 20 degrees.

Looks mainly dry Thursday and Friday, might be some weekend snow flurries as another cold front moves through...No big storms are anticipated for our area thru early January.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Variable cloudiness. Low 20 to 25. Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 25 to 30. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 8 to 13. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 25 to 30.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 17 to 22.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.

.Thursday... Partly sunny. High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 21 degrees
Low: 6 degrees

Sunrise Monday: 7:50 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 4:22 PM CST

Tim

Looking for SNOW? Head to North Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma on Monday (6-12" dumping)

2011-12-17T18:01:00.000-08:00

Issued at 7:26 PM CST, Saturday, December 17th, 2011

Mainly dry thru Tuesday
Warm on Sunday, slightly cooler thereafter
No signs of any big winter storms or long lasting arctic airmasses thru early January

Low temperature report for Saturday, December 17th, 2011
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Hibbing, MN: -7 degrees
Grand Marais, MN: -11 degrees
Silver Bay, MN: -2 degrees
Ely, MN: -8 degrees
Cook, MN: -2 degrees
Embarrass, MN: -8 degrees
4 miles east of Island Lake, MN: -6 degrees
Upson, WI: -3 degrees

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A weak system passed through our area Today generating clouds and scattered snow showers and flurries. Accumulations were less than 1". Highs were in the 20s to lower 30s with southwest or west-northwest winds at 5 to around 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow and a 130 knot jet stream covered Minnesota early This Evening per RUC model analysis. Strong warming was taking place across the Northern Rockies/Plains with 7pm 850mb temperatures of +4 to +8 degrees C while -2 to -8 degree C 850mb temperatures covered most of Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Sunday Night:

One system exits to our east Tonight while a new and somewhat stronger area of low pressure passes north of our area for Sunday and Sunday Night...Several inches of snow will occur north of Minnesota with that second system. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected in our area during this period with a few flakes possible in extreme Northeast Minnesota Sunday Morning. Lows Tonight will be in the teens to lower 20s, with a few single digits possible in a few spots. Highs on Sunday will be well above average as temperatures top out in the 30s and 40s. Lows Sunday Night will be in the teens and 20s. Winds during this period will be out of the southwest, northwest or west at 10 to 20 mph

Extended Forecast:

A quiet week is anticipated as the Upper Midwest stays in a W/NW upper level flow...In fact it looks likely that little if any change will take place during the rest of December. If this holds up...Then December will go down as the 6th consecutive month with an above average temperature at Duluth, Minnesota and the 4th month in a row with below average precipitation. High temperatures on Monday will be in the 20s with some teens in Northern Minnesota. Lows Monday Night will be in the single digits and teens. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 20s to lower 30s with low temperatures Tuesday Night in the teens.

A weak system could pass through the Upper Midwest the middle of next week...flurries could accompany that disturbance. After that goes through, expect near seasonal temperatures for Christmas weekend. There are signs per long range GFS model for a significant warmup toward New Year's weekend (December 30th-January 2nd time frame)

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 13 to 18. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Mild. Partly cloudy. High 37 to 42. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday... Partly sunny. High 27 to 32.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 8 to 13.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 25 to 30.

.Tuesday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 17 to 22.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 21 degrees
Low: 6 degrees

Sunrise Sunday: 7:49 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 4:21 PM CST

Tim

A light dusting of snow is possible late Tonight and Saturday!

2011-12-16T15:47:00.000-08:00

Issued at 4:27 PM CST, Friday, December 16th, 2011

1st half of December was mild and dry in Northern Minnesota
A dusting of snow possible on Saturday
Sunday looks mild...50s in Southwest Minnesota?
No major storms thru Christmas

December 1st-15th, 2011 Climate Summary for select Minnesota cities:

Duluth (Airport location)

Average monthly temperature: 20.9 degrees/3.8 degrees above average

Precipitation total: 0.23"/0.39" below average
Snowfall total: 3.3"/4.8" below average

6 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees
3 days so far this month with a zero or subzero low temperature

Note: The first 15 days of December 2010 had no days at or above 32 degrees and 7 days with a zero or subzero low temperature.

International Falls:

Average monthly temperature: 16.6 degrees/3.8 degrees above average

Precipitation total: 0.07"/0.34" below average
Snowfall total: 1.7"/5.5" below average

Twin Cities:

Average monthly temperature: 25.2 degrees/3.0 degrees above average

Precipitation total: 0.62"/0.02" above average
Snowfall total: 4.9"/1.1" below average

Weather History:

On this date in 2005: 6.6" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

*Billion dollar disasters in 2011* Thru December 7th
Source: Paul Douglas/St. Cloud Times

-Groundhog day blizzard (January 29th-February 3rd, 2011)
-Midwest tornadoes (April 5th-6th, 2011)
-Southeast and Midwest tornadoes (April 8th-11th, 2011)
-Midwest and Southeast tornadoes (May 22nd-27th, 2011)
-Midwest and Southeast tornadoes and severe weather (June 18th-22nd, 2011)
-Southern Plains and Southwest drought and heat wave (Spring-Fall, 2011)
-Mississippi River flooding (Spring-Summer, 2011)
-Upper Midwest flooding (Summer 2011)
-Hurricane Irene (August 20th-29th, 2011)
-Texas, New Mexico and Arizona wildfires (Spring-Fall, 2011)

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A weak warm front was over far Southern Minnesota with a cold front in Northern Wisconsin. High pressure of 1030mb covered Northern Minnesota. Partly to mostly cloudy skies were common Today with some flurries at times. Highs ranged from the low to mid teens in Northern Minnesota with mid teens to low 20s in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. Wind direction was variable Today under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest with a couple of weak disturbances dropping SE across the area per water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -18 degrees C in Central-Eastern Ontario Province to -14 degrees C in the Arrowhead of Minnesota to -4 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota. A bubble of warmth with +2 to +4 degree C 850mb temperatures covered parts of Montana and Southern Alberta Province Canada Today and this area of warm air will head into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted with scattered flurries/snow showers possible...Any accumulations would be under 1". Lows will range from zero to 10 below in far Northeast Minnesota with single digits and teens elsewhere. Winds will be out of the west or southwest under 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

A weak wave will move southeast through the region on Saturday...Flurries and snow showers will accompany this disturbance with accumulations of a dusting to 1" at most. Dry weather returns Saturday Night. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this period with highs Tomorrow mainly in the 20s with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens to around 20 degrees. Winds will be out of the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure passes to our north from Sunday into Monday. Southwest winds will help to usher in the warmth on Sunday with 850mb temperatures climbing to +2 to +6 degrees C per latest model data. Highs on Sunday will be in the 30s for most areas with a few Southern locales possibly reaching the 40s! Low temperatures Sunday Night will be in the teens and 20s. Highs on Monday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Monday Night in the single digits and teens. Looks dry across our area for Sunday and Monday.

Rest of next week looks pretty tranquil in the Upper Midwest...Might be a disturbance or two at some point which could give us a dusting of snow, but no widespread or substantial snowfalls are expected through Christmas and probably through the end of December.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Mostly clear This Evening...Becoming partly to mostly cloudy late. Flurries possible Overnight. Low 10 to 15. Wind west around 12 mph.

.Saturday... Variable cloudiness. Flurries or snow showers possible, mainly through early Afternoon. Accumulations less than 1". High 25 to 30. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 12 to 17. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 35 to 40.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. High 27 to 32.

.Monday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 8 to 13.

.Tuesday... Partly cloudy. High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 22 degrees
Low: 7 degrees

Sunrise Saturday: 7:48 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:21 PM CST

Tim

Feels a little like winter Tonight, don't get use to that!

2011-12-15T18:58:00.000-08:00

Issued at 8:25 PM CST, Thursday, December 15th, 2011

Brief cold snap Tonight
Near average temperatures Friday
Mild temperatures this weekend

30 day outlook for January 2012
Source: Climate Prediction Center

For Duluth, Minnesota:

*33% chance for above normal temperatures with equal chances for above normal, below normal or normal precipitation

90 day outlook for January-March 2012
Source: Climate Prediction Center

For Duluth, Minnesota:

*Equal chances for above normal, below normal or normal temperatures with a 33% chance for above normal precipitation.

Weather Tidbits:

*5=Number of days in a row with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota (December 11th-15th) This streak will end on Friday.

*2.5" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota (NWS) on December 14th. This was our first 2" or greater snowfall total in a 24 hour period since April 16th when 3.2" of snow came down.

*December 14th's snowfall total of at least 1.0" at Duluth, MN was the first 1.0" or greater snowfall total since November 30th (1.3")

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Deep low pressure averaging 989mb has moved into the Northern half of Quebec Province This Evening with a cold front pushing southeast across Northwest Wisconsin with high pressure of 1030mb covering Southwestern Manitoba Province. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies occurred in our area Today with scattered snow showers and flurries, little accumulation occurred outside of Iron County Wisconsin where some lake effect snow has accumulated to a few inches Today. High temperatures occurred early This Morning when readings were generally in the 30s...Since then, temperatures have tumbled into the teens and 20s. Winds were out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W/NW 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest with a potent disturbance heading E/SE across the Northern-Central Great Lakes per water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 8pm per RUC model analysis ranged from -18 degrees C in Central Ontario Province to -12 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to -7 degrees C in Southern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

Scattered lake effect snow showers in Iron County Wisconsin will continue most of the night with 1-3" of accumulation possible. Flurries and a few snow showers elsewhere should come to an end late Tonight. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted with lows in the single digits and teens...A few spots up North could go a few degrees below zero. Winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts through Midnight.

Friday and Friday Night:

A weak disturbance will pass through the Upper Midwest during this period. Flurries or a couple snow showers are possible on Friday, but accumulations if any will be less than 1". Highs Tomorrow will be in the teens and 20s with lows mainly in the teens. West, southwest or northwest winds are expected during this period at 5 to around 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Pretty quiet weekend ahead, could be some more flurries on Saturday...Otherwise the bigger story will be the temperatures. Looks like another bubble of warm air will find it's way into the Upper Midwest on Sunday as 850mb temperatures climb to +2 to +6 degrees C. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s with highs on Sunday mainly in the 30s, but with a lack of snow cover..a few spots could approach 40 degrees! Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the teens and 20s.

Cold front heads southeast and through our area early next week...This should be a dry frontal passage the way it looks now.

Another vigorous system will head into the Southwest U.S. this weekend and will move out into the Southern Plains late this weekend/early next week, does not appear will see any phasing between the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. This storm should remain well to our south/east the early-mid part of next week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... A few flurries before Midnight. Partly cloudy. Low 7 to 12. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday... Variable cloudiness. Flurries possible. High 18 to 23. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 10 to 15. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. High 33 to 38.

.Sunday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. High 27 to 32.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 22 degrees
Low: 7 degrees

Sunrise Friday: 7:48 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 4:21 PM CST

Tim

Morning slush turns to brown Afternoon lawns below the hill in Duluth

2011-12-14T17:01:00.000-08:00

Issued at 5:13 PM CST, Wednesday, December 14th, 2011

*DENSE FOG ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 5 AM CST Thursday for the following Counties in Northeast Minnesota: Carlton...Southern St. Louis...Southern Lake...and Southern Cook. Some cities included in the advisory: Moose Lake...Carlton...Duluth...Floodwood...Two Harbors...Silver Bay...Lutsen...and Grand Marais.

Discussion: Dense fog will continue Tonight, especially inland from Lake Superior. Visibility will be zero at times. This is very dangerous to drivers and pedestrians.

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will be reduced to less than one quarter mile. If you are driving, slow down, use low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

Weather History:

*On this date in 2005: 13.2" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.
*One year ago Today, the low temperature was -16 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Snowfall report for Wednesday, December 14th, 2011
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

2 miles southeast of Esko, MN (Carlton County) 1.7"
4 miles south of Sawyer, MN (Carlton County) 1.4"
Sarona, WI (Washburn County) 1.0"
4 miles north-northeast of Two Harbors, MN (Lake County) 1.0"
3 miles west-northwest of Two Harbors, MN (Lake County) 2.0"
Pike Lake, MN (St. Louis County) 2.5"

Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 1.3" reported in Duluth Heights
4 miles north-northeast of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 1.5"
9 miles northeast of Hermantown, MN (St. Louis County) 2.0"
5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) 2.5" measured at the National Weather Service

Areas of thick fog Tonight near Lake Superior
Rain/snow with a few inches of slush possible Tonight in Northwest Wisconsin
Turning cooler Thursday-Friday
A couple weak systems with dustings of snow possible this weekend and next week

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

An area of wet snow moved N-NE through parts of Eastcentral-Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Morning, some of the precipitation started out or mixed with rain/drizzle. Snowfall accumulations of 1" or less were common across Northwest Wisconsin with 1 to as much as 2.5" of snow earlier Today in Eastern-Northeast Minnesota. By This Afternoon, areas of thick fog were found near Lake Superior with another day of gray skies. Additional precipitation, this time mainly in the form of rain was moving into Northwest Wisconsin and parts of Eastern Minnesota. Highs Today were in the 30s with calm or easterly winds under 10 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W/SW 500mb flow was in place over the Upper Midwest...An upper level disturbance was heading northeast out of Iowa while another disturbance drops southeast from Saskatchewan Province per water vapor satellite imagery. 60-90 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls were occurring This Evening across the Plains and Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis. 850mb temperatures as of 6pm ranged from -10 degrees C in Central Saskatchewan Province to -2 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to +4 degrees C in Southern Minnesota.

Tonight:

An area of low pressure currently in Northern Iowa will move to Eastern Upper Michigan Overnight. Rain and drizzle will continue This Evening in Northwest Wisconsin with rain mixing with and ending as some wet snow Overnight. Some light drizzle, wet snow and patchy freezing drizzle will be found in Northern/Eastern Minnesota. Areas of fog will also occur Tonight and some of this fog will be dense, especially inland from Lake Superior. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with winds becoming northwest at 5 to around 20 mph.

Note: Total snowfall accumulations of 1-3" are possible Tonight in parts of Northwest Wisconsin, mainly southeast/east of a line from Siren to Ashland.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Low pressure will move into Eastern Canada with an upper level disturbance and cold front dropping SE across our area on Thursday. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted during this period with some snow showers or flurries at times. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits and teens. Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 25 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Friday through the end of next week, December 16th-23rd will feature a couple of weak systems which will pass to our north. Snow showers or flurries could occur at times with each of these systems from this weekend into next week, but no more than a dusting of snow is expected with any one those disturbances. High temperatures on Friday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Friday Night in the teens. Highs on Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Saturday Night in the teens.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 5 AM CST Thursday*

.Tonight... Dense fog especially over the hill in Duluth. Cloudy with some light drizzle or light freezing drizzle at times. Some light snow or flurries are also possible. Low 28 to 31. Wind east under 10 mph, becoming northwest.

.Thursday... Flurries or snow showers possible at times. Considerable cloudiness. High 31 to 35 with slowly falling temperatures. Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 8 to 13. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday... Partly sunny. High 20 to 25.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.

.Saturday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.

.Sunday... Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 22 degrees
Low: 7 degrees

Sunrise Thursday: 7:47 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 4:21 PM CST

Tim

December gloom continues

2011-12-13T18:48:00.000-08:00

Issued at 7:42 PM CST, Tuesday, December 13th, 2011

*FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Freezing Rain Advisory is in effect until 6 AM CST Wednesday for the following Counties...In Minnesota: Carlton...Southern St. Louis...Southern Lake...and Southern Cook. Some cities included in the advisory: Moose Lake...Carlton...Floodwood...Duluth...Two Harbors...Silver Bay...Lutsen...and Grand Marais

Discussion: Patchy light freezing drizzle will continue inland from Lake Superior with a light accumulation of ice especially on untreated roads, sidewalks and driveways. Areas of freezing fog will also persist Tonight.

This freezing rain advisory means that periods of freezing drizzle and freezing fog will cause light ice accumulations and possibly make travel difficult. Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Local Storm Report for Tuesday, December 13th, 2011
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*8:00 AM CST 12/13/11: FREEZING RAIN. 5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County) Thin glaze of ice covering park lot and sidewalks.

*8:00 AM CST 12/13/11: FREEZING RAIN. 0.10". Adolph, MN (St. Louis County) Glaze of ice covering exposed surfaces.

*8:30 AM CST 12/13/11: FREEZING RAIN. 0.10". Herbster, WI (Bayfield County) Ice covering yard.

*8:00 AM CST 12/13/11: FREEZING RAIN. 0.15". Proctor, MN (St. Louis County) Roads and driveways covered in a layer of ice.

Weather History:

On this date in 1995: 11.8" of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Tidbits:

*In 2011: 56% of the USA was either in a severe drought or had excessive rainfall...This is an all-time record. The long term average is 22%. (NOAA)

*Just 0.6" of snow so far this month at Duluth, Minnesota. This is 6.5" below average.

*4.3" of snow so far this season at Duluth, Minnesota. This is 18.9" below average. By this time last year, we had 38.9" of snow.

*Since January 1st: 25.57" of precipitation at Duluth, Minnesota. This is 4.73" below average.

*Today marks the 3rd day in a row with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Mild temperatures with areas of fog thru Wednesday
Some snow, rain and ice during the next 24 hours
Colder by the end of the week

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A warm front extended from Southwest Minnesota to the Upper Michigan/Wisconsin state line This Evening. Another day of gray skies, mild temperatures with areas of fog and drizzle in our area with some freezing drizzle at times in the higher terrain, inland from Lake Superior. Highs Today ranged from the upper 20s in far Northern areas with 30s elsewhere. Winds were out of the south or east under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest 500mb flow was in place across the Plains with an upper level low heading E-NE through Arizona while another upper level low churns E-NE across the Northern Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 7pm ranged from -4 degrees C in Northeast Minnesota to -2 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

A warm front will lift north out of Eastern Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin. Cloudy skies with areas of fog and drizzle will continue in our area with patchy freezing drizzle along the North Shore of Lake Superior, mainly in higher terrain areas. Some light rain, snow or freezing rain will also be possible Tonight, mainly in Southern areas. Lows will be in the 20s in far Northern Minnesota with 30s elsewhere. Winds will be out of the south or east under 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Low pressure will develop in the Central Plains on Wednesday, this low will head northeast into Northern Lake Michigan by late Wednesday Night. Another area of low pressure will pass to our northwest-north during this period with a cold front attached to this low moving east and through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night.

Some rain will fall in Northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday with any lingering rain mixing with and turning to flurries and snow showers Wednesday Night. A mixture of snow and rain will occur in Eastcentral and Northeast Minnesota on Wednesday with some patchy freezing rain also possible during the Morning, precipitation by Wednesday Night will fall as flurries/snow showers or perhaps some patchy light freezing drizzle. Flurries/snow showers are possible for Northern Minnesota through this period. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s to lower 30s. South, east or north winds are expected on Wednesday at 5 to 15 mph with winds turning to the north or west at 10 to 20 mph Wednesday Night.

Note: Total snowfall accumulations by Wednesday Night in parts of Northeast-Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin could reach 1" with isolated 2" totals possible. Rainfall totals of 0.10-0.25" are possible in Northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure heads into Eastern Canada on Thursday with some flurries expected in our area. Highs will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Thursday Night in the single digits and teens. Should start to see some clearing take place by Thursday Night. Dry weather is expected on Friday with highs in the teens and 20s with lows Friday Night mainly in the teens with a few spots up North possibly dropping into the single digits.

Looks pretty quiet this weekend with near to above average temperatures. Could be a weak low passing north of us sometime Sunday-Monday, but most of the accumulating snow associated with this system looks like it will remain north of the border.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday*

.Tonight... Fog. Drizzle at times near Lake Superior with freezing drizzle or drizzle farther Inland. Some light snow, rain or freezing rain possible late. Low 30 to 33. Wind east around 12 mph. Chance of precipitation 40%.

.Wednesday... Fog with occasional light snow and rain. Some freezing rain possible early. High 33 to 36. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 60%.

.Wednesday Night... Snow showers and flurries with patchy freezing drizzle also possible. Mostly cloudy. Total snowfall accumulations of 1" or less. Low 25 to 30. Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 40%.

.Thursday... Flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

.Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Colder. Low 5 to 10.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 17 to 22.

.Friday Night... Partly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

.Saturday... Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 22 degrees
Low: 8 degrees

Sunrise Wednesday: 7:46 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday: 4:20 PM CST

Tim

Watchout for slick spots Tonight and Tuesday AM!

2011-12-12T15:35:00.000-08:00

Issued at 4:26 PM CST, Monday, December 12th, 2011

*FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Freezing Rain Advisory is in effect until 12 PM CST Tuesday for the following Counties in Northeast Minnesota: Cook...Lake...Central and Southern St. Louis...and Carlton. In Wisconsin: Douglas...Bayfield...Ashland...and Iron. Some cities included in the advisory...In Minnesota: Grand Marais...Silver Bay...Isabella...Two Harbors...Hibbing...Duluth...Floodwood...Cloquet...and Moose Lake. In Wisconsin: Superior...Solon Springs...Port Wing...Bayfield...Cable...Ashland...Butternut...Upson...Gile...and Hurley.

Discussion: Temperatures will fall below freezing Tonight and remain near or below freezing Tuesday Morning. Occasional light freezing drizzle will continue in the advisory area. A glazing of ice will be found on untreated surfaces.

A freezing rain advisory means that periods of freezing drizzle will cause light ice accumulations and possibly make travel difficult. Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Weather History:

On this date last year the high temperature was 4 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota with a low temperature of 10 degrees below zero.

Snow depth report as of 6 AM CST Monday, December 12th, 2011
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN: Trace
International Falls, MN: 3.0"
12 miles north of Grand Rapids, MN: 1.0"
Cook, MN: 2.0"
Embarrass, MN: 2.0"
4 miles east of Island Lake, MN: 1.0"
Kabetogama, MN: 3.0"
3 miles east of Orr, MN: 3.0"
Finland, MN: 2.0"
Saxon, WI: 7.0"
Upson, WI: 6.0"
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI: 3.0"
Gordon, WI: 1.0"
Sarona, WI: 3.0"

Mild temperatures thru Wednesday
Turns colder by the end of the week
Pockets of freezing drizzle/drizzle/fog into Tuesday Evening
Light winter mix of precipitation Tuesday Night-Wednesday

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold front stretched from Southern Minnesota to Eastern Lake Superior late This Afternoon. Overcast skies were found in our area with occasional drizzle, freezing drizzle and fog. High temperatures ranged from the 20s in Northern Minnesota with 30s from Brainerd and the Twin Ports, south to Pine City and east through all of Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were from the southwest or north/east under 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low was moving toward the Southwest U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery with a W/SW upper level flow covering the Upper Midwest with a plume of subtropical moisture spreading E/NE across Mexico and into parts of the Southern-Central Plains per water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -10 degrees C in Central Ontario Province to -4 degrees C in Northcentral Minnesota to +2 degrees C in Northern Nebraska per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

A cold front will sag toward the south/east and should end up just south of our local area on Tuesday before it lifts back north as a warm front beginning Tuesday Night. Mostly cloudy skies should continue during this period with patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle, especially near Lake Superior with areas of fog also possible in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota. East wind coming off Lake Superior could also lead to a few lake effect snow showers Tonight and Tuesday, mainly along the North Shore of Lake Superior, though little if any accumulation is expected at this time. Lows Tonight will range from the teens in far Northern Minnesota with 20s to around 30 degrees common elsewhere. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Tuesday Night in the 20s to lower 30s. Note: A more widespread area of light snow, rain or freezing rain is forecasted to spread N/NE into our by late Tuesday Night. Winds during this period will be out of the north, east or southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Weak low pressure trough will pass through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday which will cause some snow or rain across our area. This system deepens as it exits to our E/NE on Thursday, wrap around flurries will likely occur from Wednesday Night into Thursday Night with mainly dry conditions for Friday. High temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s on Wednesday with lows Wednesday Night in the teens and 20s. Highs on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Thursday Night in the single digits to lower teens. No big storms are expected thru Christmas weekend per latest model guidance, might be a few weak clipper systems passing north of our area this weekend into next week, but no more than a dusting of snow would occur in our area due to the unfavorable tracks these clipper lows may take.

Snowfall accumulations:

Total snowfall accumulations of around 1-2" are possible from late Tuesday Night into Wednesday, mainly in the Northern half of Minnesota into the Arrowhead.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*Freezing Rain Advisory until 12 PM CST Tuesday*

.Tonight... Occasional light freezing drizzle and drizzle along with areas of fog. A few snow showers or flurries possible late. Cloudy. Low 27 to 32. Wind east under 12 mph.

.Tuesday... Occasional light freezing drizzle and drizzle. A few snow showers or flurries possible early. Mostly cloudy. High 32 to 36. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or mixed snow and freezing rain possible after Midnight. Low 29 to 32. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 40%.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or rain through the day with areas of freezing rain possible during the Morning. Total snowfall accumulations around 1". High 33 to 36. Chance of precipitation 60%.

.Wednesday Night... Flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Thursday... Flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. High 25 to 30.

.Thursday Night... Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

.Friday... Partly cloudy. High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 23 degrees
Low: 8 degrees

Sunrise Tuesday: 7:45 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 4:20 PM CST

Tim

Very warm temperatures Today. Light icing possible for some late Tonight-Monday AM.

2011-12-11T18:33:00.001-08:00

Issued at 8:32 PM CST, Sunday, December 11th, 2011

*FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Freezing Rain Advisory is in effect from 12 AM CST Tonight until 9 AM CST Monday for the following Counties in Northwest Wisconsin: Burnett...Washburn...Sawyer...and Price. Some cities included in the advisory: Grantsburg...Minong...Spooner...Shell Lake...Hayward...Exeland...Park Falls...Phillips...and Ogema.

Discussion: Areas of light freezing drizzle will develop late Tonight and will continue into Monday Morning. A light accumulation of ice is expected. Expect slippery roads and sidewalks Monday Morning.

A freezing rain advisory means that periods of freezing rain or freezing drizzle will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while driving.

High temperature report for Sunday, December 11th, 2011
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN: 41 degrees
International Falls, MN: 43 degrees
Brainerd, MN: 47 degrees
Ashland, WI: 47 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN: 43 degrees
Orr, MN: 45 degrees
Bigfork, MN: 45 degrees
Longville, MN: 45 degrees
Pine River, MN: 46 degrees
Aitkin, MN: 46 degrees
Superior, WI: 46 degrees
Phillips, WI: 43 degrees

Weather Tidbits:

*Today's high temperature of 41 degrees at Duluth, MN was the 1st time since November 25th with a maximum temperature of at least 40 degrees.

*Today marked the first time since December 3rd with a high temperature above freezing at Duluth, MN.

*Least snowiest start to a snow season in 49 years at Duluth, Minnesota. Average snowfall for the season through December 11th would be 22.0". So far only 4.3" of snow has fallen, 17.7" below average. This ranks as the 11th least snowiest start to the snow season at Duluth. Snowfall records go back to 1884. 1963 was the last time we had such a pultry amount of snow. 45.4" of snow would fall during the rest of 1962-1963 snow season. Note: The top 10 least snowiest seasons up to this date have all occurred at or before 1962.

Mild temperatures into mid-week
Some of us will have a risk for some light ice accumulation beginning late Tonight-Tuesday
Brief mixed precipitation event possible Tuesday Night-Wednesday
Colder by the end of the week

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

An unseasonably warm day across our area thanks to a lack of snow cover (for most of us) sunshine and southwest breezes out ahead of a cold front which as of mid-Evening had settled into the Northwest half of Minnesota. High temperatures Today were in the mid 30s to mid 40s with a few spots down toward the Brainerd Lakes reaching the upper 40s! These temperatures were a good 20 degrees or so above average for this time of year. Winds Today were out of the south or southwest under 20 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

W/SW 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest with an upper level trough nearing the Pacific Northwest and an upper level low heading toward Southern California per water vapor satellite imagery. 850mb temperatures as of 8pm ranged from zero degrees C in far Northern Minnesota to -10 degrees C in Central Canada to +4 degrees C in Central Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Monday Night:

Occasional light freezing drizzle mixing with flurries and drizzle will develop late Tonight and linger into Monday Night across Northwest Wisconsin and in portions of Eastern-Northeast Minnesota. A few flurries are possible for Northern Minnesota. A cold front will continue to sag slowly toward the south/east during this period and by Monday Night this front should reach Northwest Wisconsin. Low temperatures Tonight and Monday Night will be in the 20s to around 30 degrees with some teens in Northern Minnesota. Highs on Monday will be in the 20s and 30s. Winds during this period will be from the east or southwest under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Patchy flurries or light freezing drizzle is possible on Tuesday, mainly near Lake Superior due to an easterly wind coming off Lake Superior. The rest of our area should be dry on Tuesday. The period from Tuesday Night into early Thursday could become a tad messy as low pressure heads NE out of the Central Plains. This does not look like a huge storm and precipitation amounts look fairly light at this time. A chance for some snow will exist in Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota from late Tuesday Night into Wednesday while a mix bag of snow, rain and some freezing rain occurs for Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. Early estimates per computer models indicates the possibility for a 1-2" snowfall in parts of our area for Tuesday Night and Wednesday. This system exits to our east on Thursday with some lingering snow flurries possible.

High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night in the 20s to low 30s. Note: It does turn colder by the end of the week, highs could hold in the teens with single digit lows possible.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Mostly cloudy. Patchy light freezing drizzle or drizzle possible along with some fog. Low 23 to 28. Wind southwest around 12 mph.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Light freezing drizzle, drizzle or flurries at times. High 30 to 35. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light freezing drizzle or flurries at times. Low 25 to 30. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday... Considerable cloudiness. Light freezing drizzle or flurries at times. High 30 to 35.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or a mixture of freezing rain and snow possible Overnight. Low 25 to 30. Chance of precipitation 30%.

.Wednesday... Light snow or a mixture of rain, snow and freezing rain. Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35. Chance of precipitation 40%.

.Wednesday Night... Flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Thursday... Flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 23 degrees

Low: 8 degrees

Sunrise Monday: 7:44 AM CST

Sunset Monday: 4:20 PM CST

Tim

High temps on Sunday will be 10 to around 20 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE!

2011-12-10T15:41:00.001-08:00

Issued at 5:40 PM CST, Saturday, December 10th, 2011

Dry weather into Sunday Evening
Widespread 30s, maybe even a few 40s expected on Sunday
Light wintry precipitation possible on Monday

Today's Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Overcast skies earlier in the day with a few flakes in spots gave way to increasing amounts of sunshine during the Afternoon. High temperatures were in the 20s with a few 30s in the Brainerd Lakes region. Winds Today were out of the south or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Today's Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis shows a NW 500mb flow covering the Upper Midwest with a growing area of warmth heading into Minnesota from the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains. 850mb temperatures as of 5pm ranged from -6 degrees in the Arrowhead of Minnesota to +4 degrees C in far Western Minnesota to +8/+10 degrees C in the Central-Western Dakotas.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

Clear to partly cloudy skies can be expected with high pressure near Southern Illinois and low pressure well to our northwest, this will maintain a southwest wind across our area during the night. Lows will be in the teens and 20s with south or southwest winds under 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

A cold front across the Northern Plains will move slowly toward the south/east and should reach the Northern half of Minnesota by Sunday Night. Warm air will surge into our area on Sunday with 850mb temperatures of +4 to +8 degrees C...This should translate to high temperatures reaching the 30s with a few spots getting into the 40s! Partly to mostly sunny skies are forecasted Tomorrow with south or southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph. Sunday Night will feature partly to mostly cloudy skies with the possibility of some patchy fog, flurries or light freezing drizzle, especially late. Lows Sunday Night will mainly be in the 20s with south or northeast winds under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front will continue to settle slowly south/east across our area from Monday into early Tuesday. This front combined with a weak surface low could go on to produce a little bit of light snow, light freezing drizzle and drizzle on Monday with a lingering chance for flurries/light snow for Monday Night. Accumulations of snow and ice look very minimal at this time. Highs on Monday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Monday Night teens and 20s. An easterly wind on Tuesday could bring a few lake effect flurries to the North Shore of Lake Superior, but temperatures look too warm for any accumulation. The remainder of our area should be dry for Tuesday and Tuesday Night with highs in the 20s and 30s and lows mainly in the 20s.

The potential for a significant storm for next Wednesday-Friday, December 14th-16th is decreasing with each new model run. There looks to be little if any phasing between the low to our northwest and the system coming out of the southwest...End result will be a system passing by to our north and another one heading NE out of the Southern Plains on Wednesday and probably tracking into Michigan on Thursday. The southern stream system will have the most moisture, but the track of that low looks too far to our southeast for any of that significant precipitation to move into our area. We should see some snow showers and flurries from Wednesday into early Friday, but snow amounts look very minor at this time.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight... Clear to partly cloudy. Low 15 to 20. Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday... Partly cloudy. Mild for the time of year. High 35 to 40. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night... Becoming mostly cloudy. Patchy fog or light freezing drizzle possible Overnight. Low 20 to 25. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday... Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Light snow or light freezing drizzle also possible. High 30 to 35. Chance of precipitation 30%.

.Monday Night... Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. Low 20 to 25. Chance of snow 30%.

.Tuesday... Flurries possible. Variable cloudiness. High 25 to 30.

.Tuesday Night... Mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Wednesday... Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High: 23 degrees

Low: 9 degrees

Sunrise Sunday: 7:44 AM CST

Sunset Sunday: 4:20 PM CST

Tim