Friday, June 2, 2017

Scattered showers and t-storms late tonight, another round possible Saturday afternoon (A few storms could be strong to severe)

/Issued 4:52 PM CDT, Friday, June 2, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z 3km NAM
























Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/













Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/













Talk about a roller coaster ride in temperatures around the area this week.  A very chilly Memorial Day followed by low temperatures in the upper 20s and 30s in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Thursday morning, and that was followed by today's heat except of course near Lake Superior thanks to the lake breeze.












Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu




















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu





















May 2017 Climate Summary for Duluth, Minnesota

Average temperature:  50.3 degrees
Normal:  51.4 degrees
Departure:  -1.1 degrees below normal

Note:  May 2017 was the first below average temperature month since April 2016.

Warmest high temperature:  75 F on the 25th
Warmest low temperature:  51 F on the 28th

Coldest high temperature:  42 F on the 1st
Coldest low temperature:  32 F on the 7th

4 days with a high temperature of at least 70 F (Average is 8 days)

2 days with a low temperature colder than 50 F
1 day with a low temperature of 32 F or lower
1 day with a low temperature of 50 F or warmer

Total precipitation:  4.11 inches
Normal:  3.23 inches
Departure:  +0.88" above normal

Heaviest daily precipitation total:  1.40 inches on the 16th

Number of days with at least 0.01" of precipitation:  12
Number of days with at least 0.10" of precipitation:  7
Number of days with at least 0.50" of precipitation:  4
Number of days with at least 1.00" of precipitation:  1

Total snowfall:  0.8 inches
Normal:  0.4 inches
Departure:  +0.4" above normal

Notes:

4 thunderstorm days

May 2016 Climate Summary for Duluth, Minnesota

Average temperature:  53.2 degrees
Departure:  +1.8 degrees above normal

10 days with a high temperature of at least 70 F
4 days with a high temperature of at least 80 F
1 day with a high temperature of at least 90 F

5 days with a low temperature of 32 F or colder
5 days with a low temperature of 50 F or warmer

Total precipitation:  1.87"
Departure:  -1.36" below normal

Total snowfall:  0.1"
Departure:  -0.3" below normal

Notes:

3 thunderstorm days

May 2017 Climate Summaries for select cities

International Falls, MN

Average temperature:  49.1 degrees
Departure:  -2.7 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  1.61"
Departure:  -1.25" below normal

**2 Thunderstorm days**

Duluth, MN

Average temperature:  50.3 degrees
Departure:  -1.1 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  4.11"
Departure:  +0.88" above normal

**4 Thunderstorm days**

Note:  May 2017 was the first below average temperature month since April 2016.

Twin Cities, MN

Average temperature:  58.5 degrees
Departure:  -0.6 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  4.80"
Departure:  +1.44" above normal

**5 Thunderstorm days**

Note:  May 2017 was the first below average temperature month since August 2015.

St. Cloud, MN

Average temperature:  54.9 degrees
Departure:  -1.6 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  4.44"
Departure:  +1.49" above normal

**5 Thunderstorm days**

Note:  May 2017 was the first below average temperature month since August 2015.

Eau Claire, WI

Average temperature:  55.8 degrees
Departure:  -1.8 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  4.36"
Departure:  +0.90" above normal

**6 Thunderstorm days**

Marquette, MI

Average temperature:  47.1 degrees
Departure:  -3.8 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  3.02"
Departure:  -0.03" below normal

*2 Thunderstorm days**

For Duluth:

-Dry this evening; Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible after midnight.  Areas of low clouds or fog could form overnight lingering into mid morning (Saturday)

-Warmest day of the weekend closer to Lake Superior is Sunday (NW wind)  Most of Saturday is forecast to have an east wind so temperatures will remain in the 50s closer to the lake.  On top of the hill, temperatures Saturday afternoon are forecast to get into the 70s.

-A few spotty showers are possible Saturday morning (Before Noon)  A few storms could redevelop Saturday afternoon (2 PM-6 PM time frame)

-Sunday morning looks dry -- A few showers are possible though for Sunday afternoon.

Weather Synopsis

Lake breeze developed today which was well advertised, this kept temperatures in the 50s and 60s close to Lake Superior this afternoon.  Very warm temperatures were found farther inland with highs mainly in the 80s today.  Still pretty dry today with afternoon dew points generally in the mid 30s to upper 40s but some 50s were starting to show up over the Brainerd Lakes area.  Just some passing high level clouds pushing SE through parts of the Northland today otherwise skies were generally sunny.

It'll remain dry this evening but scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop overnight along and north of a warm front which is expected to be over central portions of Minnesota.  Elevated instability will be on the increase during the night with CAPE of 500-1500 j/kg moving into the Northland while moisture also increases with PWATS climbing into the 1.00"-1.25" range later in the night.  Note:  Thunderstorms that do develop late tonight will be capable of producing heavy downpours and lightning.  Isolated stronger storms may produce hail ranging from pea size to quarter size.  Lows tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.

Scattered showers could linger over parts of the Northland Saturday morning but overall expect a period of drier weather mid morning into mid afternoon.  A few showers and thunderstorms may redevelop by late Saturday afternoon as a cold front moves through the Northland, and there could also be a lake breeze boundary which may help to generate a few storms Saturday PM.  Note:  The CAMS or Convection Allowing Models are all over the place for Saturday, a few show nothing in our area Saturday afternoon while others do have scattered storms redeveloping later in the day.  The atmosphere could become quite unstable Saturday afternoon if skies can clear enough.  Temperatures also have a chance to warm up quite a bit, again depending on sky conditions.  With winds aloft increasing Saturday this may help to increase the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon assuming there is a trigger to get storms to develop, and also assuming that the forecast temperatures and instability per model data verifies.

Highs tomorrow in the 70s and 80s with cooler temps near Lake Superior.  Dew points are expected to climb into the 55-65 degree range Saturday so it will feel a little muggy.

Note:  This weekend shouldn't be a total washout.  Yes there will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms to deal with both Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon, but not everyone will get wet, but if you get underneath one of these storms then be ready for a torrential downpour!

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly clear this evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy overnight.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible after midnight.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Scattered showers possible early.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms could redevelop during the afternoon.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph becoming west later in the day.

.Sunday...  A mix of sun and clouds.  A few showers possible mainly during the afternoon.  Highs in the 70s.  Northwest wind 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  67
Low:   46

Sunrise Saturday:  5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:57 PM CDT

Tim