Thursday, June 8, 2017

Easterlies 10-20 mph/Cooler Friday (Possible low clouds near Lake Superior) Warm and Muggy Saturday (SW wind)

/Issued 5:05 PM CDT, Thursday, June 8, 2017/

Saturday's setup
















Temperature departure map for spring 2017 (March 1-May 31)  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu




















Precipitation departure map for spring 2017 (March 1-May 31)  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu




















Other spring 2017 climate stats for select cities

International Falls

Average temperature:  37.7 degrees
Departure:  -0.5 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  3.87"
Departure:  -1.47" below normal

Total snowfall:  7.1"
Departure:  -7.1" below normal

Twin Cities

Average temperature:  47.7 degrees
Departure:  +1.2 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  9.93"
Departure:  +2.02" above normal

Total snowfall:  5.3"
Departure:  -7.5" below normal

St. Cloud

Average temperature:  43.8 degrees
Departure:  +0.3 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  8.38"
Departure:  +1.31" above normal

Total snowfall:  3.0"
Departure:  -8.5" below normal

Note:  Duluth stats on the pic below
















The bulk of last night's rain was over north central Minnesota from Brainerd to Grand Rapids -- Little to no rain from the Twin Ports and into most of northwest Wisconsin.











Rainfall reports for June 7-8, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Note:  Totals listed below are for the 24-hour period 7 AM June 7 through 7 AM June 8

Grand Rapids, MN 12 N:  0.48 in
Brainerd, MN:  0.33 in
International Falls, MN:  0.31 in
Cass Lake, MN:  0.28 in
Celina, MN 2 E:  0.28 in
Ely, MN 25 E:  0.11 in
Orr, MN 3 E:  0.11 in
Hibbing, MN:  0.10 in
Island Lake, MN 4 E:  0.10 in
Cotton, MN:  0.05 in
Wolfridge, MN (ELC)  0.05 in

Local Storm Reports for June 7, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

*7:43 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.75 inch.  NE Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)  Largest hail was dime size.

*5:32 PM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Brainerd, MN 2 NNE (Crow Wing County)

Weather Synopsis

NW flow aloft was in place in our area today.  Wednesday's system weakened considerably as it moved farther to the east -- This system was located south/east of the Northland this afternoon but lingering moisture and a little bit of instability remained over parts of the area which has helped to pop a few showers especially in far northeast Minnesota, otherwise today was another mild one with daytime highs in mid to upper 70s with a few locations hitting the 80 degree mark.  Little cooler closer to Lake Superior with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.

A few spotty showers will carry over into the evening hours otherwise will have partly to mostly cloudy skies across the Northland tonight into Friday with the potential for some low clouds and or fog to develop at times mainly near Lake Superior late tonight and tomorrow.  Lows tonight ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs Friday in the 70s to lower 80s but in the 50s near Lake Superior.

Cold front which has moved into far southern Minnesota this afternoon will lift north as a warm front Friday night -- Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop north of this boundary Friday night with most of this activity expected to remain in far northern Minnesota or Ontario Province.  There is a risk for a few severe thunderstorms late Friday night along the Minnesota/Ontario border with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats.

The Northland will be in the warm sector most of Saturday as the warm front lifts north out of our area during the morning while the cold front moves west-east across the area Saturday afternoon-evening.  Looks quite warm Saturday afternoon as +20 to +25 degree C 850mb temperatures move over the area -- We're looking at highs in the 80s, possibly up around 90 degrees in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Saturday.  In addition to the warm temperatures, moisture will increase as dew points climb into the 60s ahead of the approaching cold front.

Note:  Winds aloft increase dramatically Saturday with a mid level jet of 80-100 knots out of the west-southwest while an upper level jet of 100-140 knots sets up to our NW.  With the projected CAPE, moisture and temperatures per model data for Saturday, coupled with the strong winds aloft, this would be an explosive environment for severe weather in parts of the Northland, but the saving grace looks to be a strong cap or layer of warm temperatures aloft which will consist of 700mb temperatures of +13 to +15C.  This cap should prevent thunderstorms from developing the way it looks now, however, this situation will be monitored should the cap be weaker than expected, which would then increase the potential for severe storms in the Northland Saturday afternoon.

Saturday's cold front will push well south of our area on Sunday, and this front probably won't make a move to the north again til sometime late Monday or Tuesday.  Less humid and cooler temperatures are expected in the Northland Sunday with higher dew points moving in for Tuesday the way it looks now.  Shower and thunderstorm chances should increase again sometime Monday night or Tuesday.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Spotty showers early otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.  Low clouds or fog possible late.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Partly to mostly sunny but areas of low clouds or fog are possible at times.  High 65 to 70 but in the 50s near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Warm and humid.  Highs in the 80s.  Wind becoming southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.  Afternoon dew points ranging from 62 to 67 degrees.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  69
Low:   47

Sunrise Friday:  5:15 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   9:01 PM CDT

Tim