Friday, June 9, 2017

Cool lake breeze tonight with some fog and possible storms later on. Gusty SW wind, warm/humid Saturday. Severe storms possible Sunday central/southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin (Could be a big day)

/Issued 4:31 PM CDT, Friday, June 9, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Note:  During the month of June a 700mb temperature between +12 and +13 degrees Celsius is considered to be a strong cap.  If the temperatures aloft end up a few degrees cooler than model projections, then the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms would increase in parts of northeast Minnesota or northwest Wisconsin Saturday afternoon with all modes of severe weather possible including hail, high winds and tornadoes, the chance for that happening is low but needs to be watched.
















Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

Note:  5 point scale with 1 being the lowest risk and 5 the highest risk.

Slight and Marginal risks for severe thunderstorms tonight (Yellow and Dark Green colors respectively)














Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday (Dark Green areas)













Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday (Dark Green area)














































Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov















Weather Synopsis

We're heading into a stormier weather pattern although it remains to be seen where these storms will set up.  At the moment it looks like northern Minnesota has a chance for storms later tonight-Saturday morning --  The potential for storms looks like it will shift further south then for Sunday, setting up across southern/central Minnesota into west central Wisconsin...Those same areas could be under the gun once again Monday before things shift more to the north for Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.

The culprit...A strong upper level trough to our west putting us in a SW flow aloft.  A warm front will lift northeast through the Northland Saturday morning which will be followed by a cold frontal passage for Saturday afternoon -- This cold front will likely stall out over southern Minnesota or northern Iowa for Sunday/Monday before it lifts north as a warm front Tuesday thanks to an area of low pressure which heads N/NE across the western High Plains and northern Plains region.

Note:  There is no doubt that there will be enough fuel in the atmosphere along with strong winds aloft, and wind shear to support strong to severe thunderstorms at times beginning late tonight and continuing into the middle of next week.  The threat late tonight is mostly in far northern Minnesota or Ontario Province.  Sunday and Monday's threat looks to be over southern or central Minnesota, this threat may then shift a bit more to the north next Tuesday.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Low clouds and fog at times, fog could be dense at times.  Patchy drizzle possible.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible after midnight.  Low 47 to 52.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday...  Windy, warm and humid.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 84 to 89.  Wind southwest at 15 to 30 mph.  Dew points 63 to 68 degrees.  Note:  Record high temperature for June 10 is 92 degrees set in 1956.  2nd warmest is 88 degrees set in 2012 and in 1976.

.Sunday...  Mainly dry and less humid.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Highs in the 70s.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  69
Low:  48

Sunrise Saturday:  5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   9:02 PM CDT

Tim