/Issued 5:07 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 13, 2017/
Here's the 20z HRRR model run valid for tonight. Thunderstorms should develop over western Minnesota through early this evening with storms then moving fairly quickly off toward the east or northeast. Mid to late evening into the early morning hours of Wednesday is when these storms should pass through the Northland the way it looks now.
A look at today's storm from the Enhanced Infrared satellite
Local Storm Reports for June 13, 2017
*4:00 PM CDT: NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST. 58 mph. Sand Bay 23 NE. Ship report, American Century.
*4:00 PM CDT: NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST. 59 mph. Sand Bay 13 NE. Reported at Ashland-C MAN station. Devils Island, WI.
*3:00 PM CDT: NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST. 48 mph. Sand Bay 11 N. Ship report, American Century.
*1:46 PM CDT: NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST. 47 mph. Sand Bay 13 NE. Devils Island, WI.
*1:40 PM CDT: HAIL. 0.50 inch. Ashland, WI (Ashland County)
*1:35 PM CDT: HAIL. 0.25 inch. Grand View, WI (Bayfield County)
*1:05 PM CDT: NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE. Big Falls, MN (Koochiching County) 2-3" branches down in winds behind rainfall.
*12:19 PM CDT: HAIL. 0.50 inch. Duluth, MN 2 NE (St. Louis County)
*12:02 PM CDT: HAIL. 0.88 inch. Hinckley, MN 13 E (Pine County) Duration of hail was about 4 minutes. Wind gusts to 26 mph.
*10:28 AM CDT: HAIL. 0.25 inch. Aitkin, MN (Aitkin County)
*10:06 AM CDT: HAIL. 1.00 inch. Ironton, MN 1 ESE (Crow Wing County)
*10:06 AM CDT: HAIL. 0.50 inch. Crosby, MN (Crow Wing County)
*9:35 AM CDT: HAIL. 0.75 inch. Fort Ripley, MN 1 N (Crow Wing County) Mostly half inch hail but the largest were penny-sized hail.
*9:33 AM CDT: HAIL. 0.25 inch. Fort Ripley, MN 1 ESE (Crow Wing County) Pea size hail and wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph.
Rainfall reports from today, June 13, 2017
Note: Totals listed below are through ~4 PM today (13th)
Hayward, WI: 1.13 in
Barnes, WI: 0.92 in
Brainerd, MN: 0.84 in
Clam Lake, WI: 0.77 in
Minong, WI: 0.71 in
Hill City, MN: 0.67 in
Solon Springs, WI: 0.58 in
Aitkin, MN: 0.58 in
Moose Lake, MN: 0.55 in
Walker, MN: 0.53 in
Duluth, MN (Airport) 0.52 in
Glidden, WI: 0.51 in
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN (Airport) 0.49 in
McGregor, MN: 0.47 in
Saginaw, MN: 0.44 in
Hinckley, MN: 0.43 in
Ashland, WI: 0.42 in
Washburn, WI: 0.42 in
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.42 in
Cass Lake, MN: 0.34 in
Orr, MN: 0.34 in
Isabella, MN: 0.27 in
Littlefork, MN: 0.27 in
Ely, MN: 0.22 in
Kabetogama, MN: 0.21 in
Grand Marais, MN: 0.19 in
Two Harbors, MN: 0.19 in
Silver Bay, MN: 0.13 in
International Falls, MN: 0.11 in
Cook, MN: 0.10 in
Note: Link to Minnesota Power Outage map http://outagemap.mnpower.com
Note: Link to Lake Country Power outage map http://mi.lcp.coop:82/#viewer-menu-parent
One round of thunderstorms moved east across the Northland from this morning into the mid afternoon hours today -- Those storms formed well north of a warm front which was analyzed over the southern portion of Minnesota late this afternoon with a corridor of high instability and moisture found west/south of that warm frontal boundary today while elevated instability and moisture advecting northward into our area helped to maintain that line of storms which moved through the area today. Gusty winds developed behind the line of storms which helped to bring down some trees led to a scattering of power outages in parts of the Northland today with Lake Country Power reporting 31 outages affecting ~1100 members as of 4 PM. Temperatures were cooler today due to the clouds and precipitation with highs generally in the 60s to lower 70s while 50s were common near Lake Superior due to a stronger wind out of the east today.
Should be an active night at times as showers and thunderstorms become more widespread during the night over the Northland -- These storms will be capable of becoming strong to severe, and heavy rainfall and lightning will also occur with any thunderstorm tonight. A warm front will lift slowly north out of southern Minnesota tonight while low pressure passes through the northern Plains. Ample instability and deep moisture will be in place over the Northland tonight while a strong low level jet and favorable mid level winds coupled with steep mid level lapse rates and about 30-40 knots of deep layer wind shear help to produce a few strong to severe thunderstorms which will be capable of producing gusty winds and hail.
The warm sector on Wednesday will become more narrow with not much space between the warm front and cold front, but assuming skies can clear for a bit during the day, then this could help to increase the chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms in parts of the Northland later Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening as the aforementioned warm front and cold front continue to lift NE through our area. Can't rule out isolated supercell storms firing up later in the day, and these could be capable of producing strong wind gusts, large hail and perhaps even an isolated tornado.
Lows tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with highs Wednesday in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight... Breezy. Occasional showers and thunderstorms redeveloping later this evening. Heavy downpours possible. Low 50 to 55. Wind east at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts this evening.
.Wednesday... Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible mainly early and again later in the afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 63 to 68 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Thursday... Warmer. Partly to mostly sunny. Highs around 80. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for Wednesday
Sunrise Wednesday: 5:14 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 9:05 PM CDT