Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Rain, drizzle, fog, gusty NE winds and a few t-storms tonight. Drying out Thursday PM-Friday. More rain, maybe even some snow this weekend

/Issued 5:16 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 17, 2017/

Source:  http://www.ssec.wisc.edu
















Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 5 PM CDT, May 17, 2017.  Source:  http://www.intellicast.com














Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the counties shaded in green.












Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

A few thunderstorms could become strong or severe this evening in far southern parts of the Northland, mainly from Pine County east to the Hayward Lakes area.  Hail and gusty winds are the main threats.













Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Tornado Watch in effect until 10 PM tonight for parts of southern Minnesota (Counties shaded in red on map)












Tornado Watch in effect until 11 PM tonight for parts of southeast Minnesota, central and southern Wisconsin (Counties shaded in red on map)  Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov


















Flash Flooding possible this evening in the outlined area on map.  Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Link to the discussion http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0226&yr=2017














Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/
















Radar loop of Tuesday evening's severe thunderstorms.  Source:  http://weather.cod.edu































*Record rainfall at Duluth, Minnesota on May 16, 2017*

New record:  1.40 inches
Previous record:  0.86 inches set in 1872

Weather Synopsis

It's going to be a rainy and breezy night in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin thanks to a strong area of low pressure which was over far northeastern Nebraska at 3 PM today -- This low will track northeast along a frontal boundary which stretches from southern Minnesota into northeast Wisconsin.  Strong dynamics will accompany this storm which will help generate widespread soaking rains tonight in east central and northeast Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.  Since our area will remain north of the surface low, most of the rain should remain on the light to moderate side but thunderstorms producing torrential downpours could affect parts of eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin especially before midnight.  With a couple rounds of rain falling prior to tonight's event the risk for flooding has increased due to the ground already being saturated -- This is especially true over portions of northwest Wisconsin.

Colder air will eventually get pulled into this system Thursday morning with 925mb and 850mb temperatures forecasted to fall to around 0C...If surface temperatures can drop to around 35 degrees, then a brief mix of snow/rain is possible Thursday morning before the precipitation ends...If this occurs it would be most likely to happen in extreme northeast Minnesota and over a small portion of far northern Wisconsin (Away from Lake Superior)

Thursday morning should start out on the cloudy side but there should be some clearing in parts of the Northland Thursday afternoon.

Looks like will be dry Thursday night and Friday but the next system takes aim on the Northland for Saturday and Sunday.  Computer models are in good agreement on the track of this system through Saturday, but diverge come Sunday morning with the GEFS model showing a farther east storm track while the EURO model is farther west while the EURO ensemble is in between.  Regardless of the storm track it looks like the majority of the Northland will get some additional rain this weekend.  One thing to keep an eye will be the temperatures as this looks like a cooler system.  The NAM is most agressive with this cooling and actually supports some snow in western-northern portions of Minnesota.  Stay tuned.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Windy with rain, drizzle and fog.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind northeast at 15 to 30 mph.

.Thursday...  Light rain and drizzle ending during the morning.  Mostly cloudy with some sun possible during the afternoon.  High 51 to 56 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  63
Low:   41

Sunrise Thursday:  5:30 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:41 PM CDT

Tim