Monday, May 1, 2017

Lingering slop tonight; 50s Tue afternoon. Risk of a few showers (T-storms?) Wed. Snowfall/precip reports from today in this post

/Issued 5:19 PM CDT, Monday, May 1, 2017/

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

18z NAM 3km
















Water vapor loop of today's storm affecting the Northland.  Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















April 2017 Climate Summaries for select cities

Duluth, Minnesota

Average temperature:  42.2 degrees
Departure:  +2.4 degrees above normal

12th consecutive above average temperature month

Total precipitation:  3.02"
Departure:  +0.59" above normal

Total snowfall:  1.9"
Departure:  -5.0" below normal

International Falls, Minnesota

Average temperature:  39.8 degrees
Departure:  +0.5 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  1.58"
Departure:  +0.05" above normal

Total snowfall:  2.6"
Departure:  -3.8" below normal

Twin Cities, Minnesota

Average temperature:  50.5 degrees
Departure:  +3.0 degrees above normal

20th consecutive above average temperature month

Total precipitation:  4.45"
Departure:  +1.79" above normal

Total snowfall:  0.5"
Departure:  -1.9" below normal

**4 thunderstorm days**

St. Cloud, Minnesota

Average temperature:  46.0 degrees
Departure:  +1.5 degrees above normal

20th consecutive above average temperature month

Total precipitation:  3.27"
Departure:  +0.70" above normal

Total snowfall:  Trace
Departure:  -3.0" below normal

**2 thunderstorm days**

Eau Claire, Wisconsin

Average temperature:  47.4 degrees
Departure:  +1.4 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  4.94"
Departure:  +2.19" above normal

Total snowfall:  0.8"
Departure:  -1.1" below normal

**4 thunderstorm days**

Marquette, Michigan

Average temperature:  39.8 degrees
Departure:  +1.9 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  5.40"
Departure:  +2.39" above normal

Total snowfall:  12.1"
Departure:  -2.4" below normal

**2 thunderstorm days**

Snowfall reports from around the Northland for May 1, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Virginia, MN 5 N:  3.0 inches
Mahtowa, MN 3 NW:  3.0 inches
Brainerd, MN 1 ENE:  2.5 inches
Wrenshall, MN:  2.0 inches
Tamarack, MN 2 SW:  2.0 inches
Barnum, MN:  2.0 inches
Crosslake, MN:  1.7 inches
Holyoke, MN:  1.6 inches
Floodwood, MN:  1.5 inches
Keewatin, MN:  1.5 inches
Wright, MN 3 ENE:  1.1 inches

Precipitation totals from around the Northland for May 1, 2017
Source:  http://mesowest.utah.edu

Note:  Totals listed below are through 4 PM today.

Clam Lake, WI:  1.15 in
Minong, WI:  0.97 in
Ashland, WI:  0.94 in
Glidden, WI:  0.83 in
Hill City, MN:  0.80 in
Barnes, WI:  0.79 in
Siren, WI:  0.76 in
Phillips, WI:  0.55 in
Moose Lake, MN:  0.52 in
Brainerd, MN:  0.48 in
McGregor, MN:  0.40 in
Two Harbors, MN:  0.39 in
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN:  0.38 in
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.35 in
Pine River, MN:  0.35 in
Grand Portage, MN:  0.34 in
Ely, MN:  0.33 in
Saginaw, MN:  0.31 in
Silver Bay, MN:  0.31 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.24" in
Isabella, MN:  0.22 in

Weather Synopsis

A busted snowfall forecast! A large low pressure system stretched from central Wisconsin to Lake Huron late this afternoon with an upper level low covering the upper Midwest -- This system brought widespread precipitation to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin today with a variety of precipitation types ranging from rain, sleet to wet snow.  Near surface temperatures were very marginal for a lot of snow today with most of the accumulating snow occurring this morning when temperatures were at their coolest.  Temperatures aloft although marginal were cold enough to support frozen precipitation today with 850mb temps generally in the -2 to -4C range but 925mb temps were warmer in the 0 to +1C range.  In the end snow totals were quite light with amounts ranging from a dusting to 2-3 inches at most.  Even the Duluth Airport which I thought had a shot at getting 2-4 inches of snow today only had around 0.5 inches of accumulation this morning.

Low pressure to our southeast this afternoon will move into far eastern upper Michigan by daybreak.  There will be lingering rain and snow in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight but any additional snowfall accumulation should only be a dusting to an inch at most and the best chance for those amounts would be several miles inland from Lake Superior.

A few lingering snow or rain showers Tuesday morning otherwise dry with overcast skies but hopefully will get a few peeks of sun.

Lows tonight mainly in the 30s with highs Tuesday in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

A low pressure trough is forecast to move into the upper Midwest Wednesday.  Some instability will accompany this disturbance with CAPE projected to be around 200-500 j/kg per model guidance.  A few showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm are possible Wednesday in parts of the Northland.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Light rain, drizzle and some wet snow at times.  Low 34 to 37.  Wind becoming north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Patchy drizzle or flurries possible early otherwise mostly cloudy but some breaks for sun possible.  Milder.  High 50 to 55.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  58
Low:   37

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:51 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:20 PM CDT

Tim