Friday, April 28, 2017

Texas Hooker type storm on the way for Sunday night-Monday! Before then a pretty nice Saturday on the way

/Issued 6:00 PM CDT, Friday, April 28, 2017/

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

18z GFS model -- Should be plenty of lift with this storm with impressive jet stream winds off to our NE and coming up from the S by Sunday night.




























Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

12z European model from Friday, April 28, 2017.
















Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

Enhanced (Orange) and Slight (Yellow) risks for severe thunderstorms through Saturday.  Large hail >1 inch diameter, damaging winds >58 mph and a few tornadoes are possible in the risk areas.














Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/














Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

There is also a significant risk for flash flooding this weekend to go along with the severe thunderstorm potential.















Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov















Coolest temperatures today were confined to extreme northern Minnesota while temperatures warmed up considerably compared to Thursday over the remainder of the Northland.












Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Saturday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Snowfall records could be broken at Duluth, Minnesota on Monday, May 1st!  See stats below.

*Heaviest snowfall total on May 1st:  1.6 inches set in 1970

*May 1st -- Only 2% of years from 1874-2016 have featured a snowfall >1.0 inch.  0% have had a snowfall >3" and >6".

*Snowiest May on record is 8.1 inches (1954) 

2nd snowiest 6.0 inches (1950)
3rd snowiest:  5.7 inches (1924)
4th snowiest:  5.5 inches (1902)
5th snowiest:  4.5 inches (2010)

*Heaviest calendar day snowfall total during the month of May is 5.5 inches which occurred on May 10th, 1902.

2nd heaviest:  5.0 inches May 8th, 1924
3rd heaviest:  4.4 inches May 7th, 2010
4th heaviest:  4.3 inches May 2nd, 1950
5th heaviest:  3.5 inches May 17th, 1968

**Record Events**

Duluth, Minnesota:  Record cold high temperature on April 27th, 2017.  New record 30 degrees.  Previous coldest 32 degrees set in 1950.

International Falls, Minnesota:  Record cold high temperature on April 27th, 2017.  New record 29 degrees.  Previous coldest 32 degrees set in 2008.

Weather Synopsis:

Warmed up nicely today, amazing how nice 50 degrees feels after a few days around 30 along with gusty winds and mixed winter precipitation!

Quiet weather will continue at least through mid afternoon Sunday thanks to high pressure which will be over the upper Midwest and Ontario.

The big weather story continues to be the potential winter storm for the Sunday night-Monday time frame.  The projected track of the surface low remains S-SE of the Northland which keeps our area on the cooler side of the low while deep moisture comes up from the S/SE -- Temperatures aloft thanks to dynamical cooling processes are expected to drop to 0 to -2C while surface temperatures hover around the freezing mark on Monday -- This should be cold enough to support snow, however, the snow could mix with or change to mixed precipitation or rain at times especially over portions of northwest Wisconsin.  Note:  Any changes to the storm track could lead to warmer or colder temperatures resulting in more snow or more rain than what is forecast today (Friday)

Precipitation should begin to spread from south to north into northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin either Sunday afternoon or Sunday night with precipitation then continuing through Monday before slowly tapering off from SW-NE Monday night or Tuesday morning.

Note:  Still not real sure how much snow accumulation will see here in the Northland but I'd say at the very least we're looking at 1-4" with higher amounts quite likely especially over portions of northeast Minnesota where snow totals could exceed 6"!  The fact that we're so late into the season for snowfall some of the snow could melt initially which may cut into totals just a bit, also the snow will likely be wet and slushy which may lead to some compaction.

The other component to this storm as is often the case with these spring storms will be very strong NE winds near Lake Superior.  These winds should increase Saturday night and Sunday, and will remain strong Sunday night and Monday -- Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible for Sunday and Monday.  The potential will exist for isolated power outages due to these strong winds, and also from the wet snowfall sticking to trees and power lines.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly cloudy.  High 46 to 51 but turning cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind becoming east at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  56
Low:   36

Sunrise Saturday:  5:56 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:16 PM CDT

Tim