Saturday, April 8, 2017

Scattered showers Sunday with a risk of a few strong t'storms in southern MN, central/southern WI. Rain/Snow event possible Monday (Low confidence forecast)

/Issued 5:42 PM CDT, Saturday, April 8, 2017/

Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

Slight risk of severe thunderstorms in yellow; Marginal risk in dark green.






































Summer like warmth today across much of western, central and southern Minnesota with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior (Typical of April)












Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Sunday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

*High temperature reached 60 degrees today, April 8th -- The average date for the first 60 degree high temperature happens to be April 8th.  The first 60 degree high temperature the last two years occurred much earlier than normal (2016 was on March 12th; 2015 was on March 15th)

*It's been a dry spring thus far with only 1.16" of precipitation since March 1st -- This is -0.85" below normal to date.  A much wetter spring last year with a precipitation total from March 1-April 8 of 4.63"

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Definitely not the sunniest of days out there today thanks to persistent mid to high level clouds which have been moving west to east across the Northland.  Temperatures were well above average though despite the lack of sunshine, highs today were in the 60s to lower 70s with 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

A tough forecast through Monday night but that's actually nice for a change -- A cold front over western Minnesota late this afternoon will settle S/E tonight and is forecast to extend from south central Minnesota to northern Wisconsin by Sunday morning, this front will then move a little more to the south/east through Monday morning before getting a bigger push to the S/E during the day Monday as low pressure rides E/NE along the cold frontal boundary.

Scattered showers are possible in western-southern portions of the area late tonight with scattered showers possible Sunday just about anywhere in our area, however, the better chances for rain showers appears to be over east central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin with a lesser chance up near the Minnesota-Ontario border.

Can't rule out a few thunderstorms late tonight through Sunday evening mostly in eastern Minnesota or northwest Wisconsin -- Storms would be elevated if any do develop with brief downpours and occasional lightning being the main hazards.  The best instability and steeper mid level lapse rates are expected to remain south of the Northland, and that is where the stronger storms are more likely to occur Sunday.

The forecast from Sunday night through Monday night is a challenge to say the least with poor model agreement from one run to the next.  There remains some potential for a rain and snow event in parts of the Northland during the aforementioned time period but with such poor model agreement, confidence on this actually occurring is quite low.

One scenario would have the rain switch over to snow on Monday in east central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin with some snow accumulation likely (1-3 inches, possibly more)

Another scenario has rain changing to snow in parts of northwest Wisconsin Monday while mainly rain showers occur in east central Minnesota.  Snow accumulations with this scenario would remain in northern Wisconsin.

Yet another scenario keeps all of the precipitation (Rain or Snow) south of the Northland during the day Monday.

Note:  The system for Monday still has potential to be a potent one but where the rain/snow band sets up is highly uncertain and it will probably take until Sunday night before the computer models converge on a solution.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 40s to lower 50s with 30s possible in extreme northern Minnesota.  Highs Sunday in the 50s and 60s.  Temperatures Sunday night and Monday in the 30s and 40s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50, a little cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph becoming north late.

.Sunday...  Considerable cloudiness.  Scattered showers possible.  High 55 to 60.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  46
Low:   27

Sunrise Sunday:  6:32 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   7:49 PM CDT

Tim