Sunday, April 23, 2017

Gusty/Cool east winds thru Mon near Lake Superior. Snow tonight north of Duluth. Rain Mon PM; Snow/Rain/Ice potential midweek

/Issued 4:43 PM CDT, Sunday, April 23, 2017/

Source:  https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov

18z HRRRX model


















Suddenly the weather pattern is trending toward an active one after a relatively quiet spring around the Northland.  Several storm systems to keep an eye on through May 1st.

-System number one won't produce much snow in the Northland but some rain is likely Monday afternoon-early Tuesday morning.

-System number two could affect parts of the Northland sometime between late Tuesday night and Thursday, this one could bring accumulating snow or rain to parts of the area.

-A third system is possible for next weekend, this one could also bring accumulating snow or rain to parts of the Northland.




























Weather setup from this morning, April 23, 2017.












Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Temperature departure map for the week of April 16th, 2017.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/





















Precipitation departure map for the week of April 16th, 2017.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/





















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

April 16-22, 2017

High temperatures:

4/16:  62 F/+12 degrees above normal
4/17:  42 F/-8 degrees below normal
4/18:  43 F/-8 degrees below normal
4/19:  45 F/-6 degrees below normal
4/20:  41 F/-11 degrees below normal
4/21:  60 F/+8 degrees above normal
4/22:  68 F/+15 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

4/16:  33 F/+3 degrees above normal
4/17:  30 F/-1 degree below normal
4/18:  30 F/-1 degree below normal
4/19:  35 F/+3 degrees above normal
4/20:  34 F/+2 degrees above normal
4/21:  34 F/+2 degrees above normal
4/22:  36 F/+3 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  1.58"
Normal:  0.99"
Departure:  +0.99" above normal

*Snowfall reports from around the Northland*
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Date:  April 23, 2017

Walker, MN 5 E:  3.5 in
Hackensack, MN 2 NNE:  3.3 in
Walker, MN 1 NW:  2.5 in
Two Harbors, MN 7 NW:  2.0 in
Shaw, MN 3 N:  1.8 in
Blackberry, MN:  1.5 in
Castle Danger, MN 6 WNW:  1.4 in
Island Lake, MN 6 E:  1.6 in
Cloquet, MN 1 N:  1.0 in
Duluth, MN (National Weather Service)  0.6 in

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

After a very nice Friday and Saturday the weather today is a step back toward late winter conditions with much colder temperatures along with some snow and rain.  Temperatures this Sunday afternoon were only in the 30s in most of the Northland although some locations in the far south were in the mid 40s to low 50s (Hinckley to Hayward to Park Falls corridor)

There is a strong cold front that was over south central Minnesota this afternoon with an impressive thermal gradient in place with late afternoon 850mb temperatures of -6 C in northern Minnesota to +8 C in southern Minnesota.  Surface temperatures ranged from the 30s north of the front across northern Minnesota to the lower 70s on the warm side of the front over southern Minnesota.

The aforementioned cold front will begin to lift slowly toward the north through Monday evening while low pressure heads E/NE out of the western High Plains.  An F-GEN induced band of snow and mixed precipitation will continue to affect areas mainly from the Iron Range on north tonight with snowfall of a coating up to 3 inches possible by daybreak -- The remainder of the Northland should remain dry tonight although some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle could develop near Lake Superior.

Chances for rain will increase from west to east across the Northland for Monday and Monday night.  Looks like boundary layer temperatures will be warm enough for mostly rain with the greater chances for wintry precipitation north of the border.  Note:  Rain chances will be greatest over western portions of the area during the day Monday with the rain chances increasing later Monday afternoon or Monday night in eastern portions of the Northland including in the Twin Ports.

Lows tonight will range from the mid 20s to the 30s with highs Monday in the 50s and 60s over southern areas with 40s across the north and upper 30s near Lake Superior.

Note:  The period from Tuesday night through Thursday could potentially be an active one but model differences are evident on the tracks of one or two low pressure systems coming out of the southern or central Plains.  Right now everything is on the table including the potential for a significant winter storm with >4" snowfall, freezing rain with accumulating ice, and also just rain, there is also a chance this entire mess stays farther south/east than what some of the computer models are showing today.  Stay tuned.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy drizzle possible with patchy freezing drizzle on top of the hill.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

.Monday...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible mainly later in the afternoon.  High 40 to 45; Around 38 near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  54
Low:   34

Sunrise Monday:  6:05 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:10 PM CDT

Tim