Friday, April 7, 2017

Dry and mild Saturday (60s/70s, cooler near Lake Superior) Rain/Snow event possible Mon-early Tue AM

/Issued 6:05 PM CDT, Friday, April 7, 2017/

Still a few weeks away from green up around here so until we get some precipitation expect the fire danger to remain high at times.  The map below is the fire danger map through tonight, similar conditions expected for Saturday.  Note:  The fire danger in Wisconsin is also on the high side.  Source:  http://www.dnr.state.mn.us





















I'm still keeping an eye on a system for early next week which could bring some rain and accumulating snow to parts of the Northland.  More details below.
















Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov















Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/














Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

Slight risk (Yellow) of severe thunderstorms Sunday from extreme southern Minnesota to northern Oklahoma -- A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms (Dark green area on map)














Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Saturday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov





















Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

High pressure moved off to the east today with a southerly return flow occurring over the upper Midwest.  Partly to mostly sunny skies were found over the Northland today with milder temperatures compared to Thursday.  Highs today were in the mid or upper 50s with 40s closer to Lake Superior.

Warm air advection will affect the area through Saturday.  850mb temperatures which ranged from +2 to +4 C late this afternoon will climb to around +15 C Saturday as very mild air spills east out of the northern Plains.

Will have partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight with lows in the 30s to lower 40s.  Partly to mostly sunny Saturday with highs in the 60s and 70s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior (Especially along the North Shore)

Low pressure along with its warm front and cold front will move into the upper Midwest this weekend -- Moisture and instability will gradually increase with it peaking on Sunday with the highest values remaining south of the Northland the way it looks now.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible in parts of the area Sunday but the potential for stronger storms this far north is relatively low.

A more widespread precipitation event is possible from Sunday night through Monday night as low pressure tracks E/NE out of the Plains -- This system could be a potent one and it could even bring some snow to parts of the Northland Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning.  Dynamical cooling processes will occur on Monday with strong cold air advection setting up as low pressure remains to our south allowing for a northerly flow of air in our area -- There is potential for the rain Sunday night/Monday morning to switch over to snow Monday afternoon in parts of the Northland with snow or a rain/snow mix lingering Monday night before ending Tuesday morning.

Some slushy snowfall accumulation is possible early next week in parts of northeast Minnesota or northwest Wisconsin but some things to consider...Even if a change over to snow does occur it may take a while for it to accumulate with most of the accumulation confined to grassy surfaces if it does snow.  Roads could remain wet with no snow accumulation through early Monday evening.  However if snowfall rates are heavy enough then this could result in a quicker accumulation on grassy surfaces, and even on road surfaces.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  45
Low:   27

Sunrise Saturday:  6:34 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   7:48 PM CDT

Tim