Thursday, March 2, 2017

Subzero temperatures tonight; 50s on Sunday; Showers/t-storms Monday

/Issued 4:57 PM CST, Thursday, March 2, 2017/

Source:  18z HRRR model; http://www.pivotalweather.com

Note:  Average low temperatures in the Northland in early March are in the single digits to low teens above zero.
















Still looking at a chance for rain next Monday with a few thunderstorms also possible.  The track of the low may be a little farther southeast compared to what I show on this map (Black line) but the low is still expected to track west of the Northland which keeps us on the warm side of this system.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Friday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















February 2017 temperature departure map.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu




















February 2017 snowfall departure map.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu





















February 2017 precipitation departure map.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu




















February 2017 Climate Summary for Duluth, Minnesota

Average temperature:  22.5 degrees
Normal:  15.1 degrees
Departure:  +7.4 degrees above normal

Note:  This was the 9th warmest February on record.

Warmest high temperature:  52 F on the 18th and previous date
Warmest low temperature:  37 F on the 20th

Coldest high temperature:  8 F on the 8th
Coldest low temperature:  -11 F on the 9th

15 days with a high temperature of at least 32 F
7 days with a high temperature of at least 40 F
3 days with a high temperature of at least 50 F

4 days with a subzero low temperature (Average is 10 days)
4 days with a low temperature of 32 F or warmer

Total precipitation:  1.80"
Normal:  0.81"
Departure:  +0.99" above normal

Note:  This was the 14th wettest February on record.

Heaviest daily precipitation total:  0.77" on the 20th

Number of days with at least 0.01" of precipitation:  8
Number of days with at least 0.10" of precipitation:  5
Number of days with at least 0.50" of precipitation:  1

Total snowfall:  14.1"
Normal:  12.4"
Departure:  +1.7" above normal

Heaviest daily snowfall:  4.0" on the 7th

Number of days with snowfall (At least 0.1" accumulation)  10 (Average is 10 days)

Number of days with snowfall (1.0" or greater accumulation)  6

Notes:

*February was the 10th consecutive month with an above average temperature (April 2016 is the last month that was below average)

*3 days with a high temperature of at least 50 F -- This is a record for the month of February.  The previous record was 2 days which was set in 1981.

February 2016 climate summary for Duluth, Minnesota

Average temperature:  17.3 degrees
Departure:  +2.2 degrees above normal

9 days with a high temperature of at least 32 F
1 day with a high temperature of at least 50 F

9 days with a subzero low temperature

Total precipitation:  0.83"
Departure:  +0.02" above normal

Total snowfall:  12.2"
Departure:  -0.2" below normal

13 days with snowfall (At least 0.1" accumulation)
5 days with snowfall (At least 1.0" accumulation)

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

A late season blast of arctic air is over the Northland today with abundant sunshine but with below average temperatures.  Highs today were in the teens and 20s.  The normal high for March 2nd at Duluth is 29 degrees, and at International Falls the normal high for today is 28 degrees.  4 PM temperature at Duluth was 18 degrees, and it was 10 degrees at International Falls.  Surface map late this afternoon had a 1036mb high nearing the Red River Valley with a chilly NW flow occurring on the south/east side of that high.

High pressure will move over Minnesota tonight leading to mainly clear skies and very cold temperatures for early March.  850mb temperatures late this afternoon ranged from -16 to -22 C over the Northland, warm air advection will begin on Friday with H85 temperatures rising slightly to between -10 and -15 C by late in the afternoon -- Further warming will take place on Saturday with H85 temperatures of +5 to -5 C from SW-NE across the Northland.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with teens and possibly some -20s in the typical cold spots.  Highs on Friday will mainly be in the 20s with lows Friday night in the teens and 20s.

Note:  There is a chance for a little bit of snow Friday night in parts of the Northland as the warmer air moves in but only a dusting of accumulation is expected for those areas that get a burst of snow Friday night.

Looking ahead to the weekend, highs Saturday will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with highs on Sunday in the 40s and 50s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Clear and cold.  Low 0 to 5 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday...  Mostly sunny during the morning with some increase in clouds during the afternoon.  High 17 to 22.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  29
Low:   12

Sunrise Friday:  6:44 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   5:58 PM CST

Tim