Saturday, March 4, 2017

Highs in the 40s and 50s Sunday. Showers, few t-storms Monday; Windy and turning cooler with snow showers Tuesday

/Issued 7:36 PM CST, Saturday, March 4, 2017/

Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/













Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Sunday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

















Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota & northwest Wisconsin

Milder temperatures returned to the Northland today under a mostly sunny or partly cloudy sky.  Highs were in the 30s to lower 40s.

Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies for tonight and Sunday -- There is a chance that low clouds will either develop over the Northland or move in from the south/southeast tonight, and if these clouds stick around on Sunday then temperatures will end up cooler than what is being forecast.  Note:  The threat for fog is low but some visibility reduction is possible tonight and tomorrow mostly due to some haze.

Lows tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with highs Sunday in the 40s and 50s but those 50s are more likely to occur if the stratus erodes during the morning-early afternoon hours.

A strong area of low pressure will move into the northern Plains by late Sunday night with a 987mb low forecast to reach the western Dakotas Monday morning, and then southeast Manitoba Province by Monday evening with a pressure down to around 980mb.

A warm front and cold front connected to this low will move through the Northland Monday and Monday evening.  A southerly low level jet of 40-50 knots ahead of the northern Plains surface low will bring a moist airmass north into the upper Midwest, and there will also be some instability moving into the area especially on Monday with CAPE of 100-300 j/kg along with lifted index values around +1 to -2 C.  Should be able to get a few thunderstorms to develop in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Monday with brief downpours and some lightning being the main hazards from these storms, but hail and or gusty winds can't be ruled out if stronger convection can get going.

It'll be very mild Sunday night as lows will only fall into the 30s to lower 40s.  Highs on Monday will be in the 40s and 50s.

Strong winds and some snow showers are expected from late Monday night through Tuesday night as a deep area of low pressure tracks across Ontario Province.  Wind gusts could approach or exceed 40 mph on Tuesday while moisture wrapping around the low results in some snow showers with some accumulation possible mainly over far northern Minnesota.

Looking ahead...A strong baroclinic zone (Temperature gradient) will setup somewhere from the northern Rockies to the upper Midwest (Possibly a little further south or north) late next week/next weekend.  There is a chance that one or more low pressure systems develop and track along this temperature gradient, and this could result in some snow or mixed precipitation in portions of the Northland if these systems develop and track far enough to the north...The time frame for this potential precipitation looks to be sometime between the 9th-13th.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Mostly cloudy with some clearing possible.  High 45 to 50 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  30
Low:   13

Sunrise Sunday:  6:40 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   6:01 PM CST

Tim