Monday, March 6, 2017

From thunderstorms and a risk of severe weather this evening to a burst of snow early Tuesday morning! Wind Advisory in effect Tuesday (Gusts to 45 mph)

/Issued 4:51 PM CST, Monday, March 6, 2017/

Source:  21z HRRR model; http://weather.cod.edu
















Visible satellite image and some weather highlights from late this afternoon.  Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Today's storm is very dynamic, lots of wind energy with it.  Upper level winds ~140 knots, mid level winds ~70 knots, low level jet ~50 knots.
















Red box=Tornado Watch.  People in and near the watch area need to pay attention to the weather this evening.  Heed all warnings whether they are in the form of a severe thunderstorm warning or a tornado warning.  Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/


















Tornado probabilities through the early to mid evening hours.  In addition to the threat for isolated tornadoes, there is a potential for hail along with strong gusty winds.












On a typical March 6th this is where severe weather is most likely to occur based on reports from 1982-2011.  Today's severe potential in Minnesota and Wisconsin is very far to the north compared to average for the 6th of March.















Here is the severe weather outlook through this evening.  Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

Orange=Enhanced risk (3)
Yellow=Slight risk (2)
Dark green=Marginal risk (1)













A southwest storm force event expected Tuesday into Wednesday morning over the open waters of Lake Superior.  Per NWS Marquette, MI -- Winds 40-50 knots with wave heights to 18 feet, a maximum wave height to 26 feet is possible.
















For Duluth and Superior:

-Wind Advisory is in effect from 6 AM Tuesday until 6 PM CST Tuesday.  Southwest wind 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

-Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms before midnight.  Temperatures around 50 degrees.

-A burst of snow is expected between 4 AM and 6 AM Tuesday.  Temperatures falling into the upper 20s by dawn with winds shifting southwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

-Temperatures Tuesday afternoon in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees.  Strong southwest winds 20 to 45 mph.  Snow showers return later in the day, but more likely Tuesday night.

Tim