Sunday, March 12, 2017

Cold temperatures continue. Some snow tonight-Monday in southern portions of the Northland and near Lake Superior (Heaviest snowfall in southern MN)

/Issued 5:19 PM CDT, Sunday, March 12, 2017/

Visible satellite image from late this afternoon, surface low position and storm track.  Source:  http://weather.rap.ucar.edu




















I made some adjustments to my snowfall map.  I lowered totals for Duluth and North Shore of Lake Superior based on trends I'm seeing in this afternoon's mesoscale models.  It appears that the greatest chance for 3-6 inches of snow (Possibly more than that) will be along the South Shore of Lake Superior affecting portions of Douglas and Bayfield counties, mainly east of the city of Superior.












Expiration times of these advisories are shown on the map.












Winter Storm Warnings in pink; Winter Weather Advisory in purple.  Source:  http://www.weather.gov/crh/















Radar loop through 5 PM CDT.  Source:  http://www.intellicast.com

Blue=Snow














Visible satellite loop of Lake Superior from today (March 12) Pretty cool watching the lake effect clouds moving from north to south or from east to west depending on the wind direction, and also the mid/high level clouds approaching from the west today.  Source:  http://weather.cod.edu
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Temperature departure map for the week of March 5, 2017.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu




















Precipitation departure map for the week of March 5, 2017.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu





















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

March 5-11, 2017

High temperatures:

3/5:  43 F/+13 degrees above normal
3/6:  51 F/+21 degrees above normal
3/7:  48 F/+17 degrees above normal
3/8:  23 F/-8 degrees below normal
3/9:  24 F/-8 degrees below normal
3/10:  12 F/-20 degrees below normal
3/11:  18 F/-14 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

3/5:  29 F/+16 degrees above normal
3/6:  37 F/+23 degrees above normal
3/7:  20 F/+6 degrees above normal
3/8:  10 F-4 degrees below normal
3/9:  2 F/-13 degrees below normal
3/10:  -7 F/-22 degrees below normal
3/11:  -4 F/-20 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  0.24"
Normal:  0.32"
Departure:  -0.08" below normal

Link to Minnesota road conditions http://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf

Link to Wisconsin road conditions http://www.511wi.gov/web/traffic/winterroadconditions

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

There was a potent storm system dropping SE across the northern Plains today.  A surface low was located in far southern South Dakota at 4 PM with a mid/upper level low over western South Dakota.  Widespread snow, heavy at times has been falling this afternoon in west central and southern Minnesota with about 1 to 4 inches of accumulation reported so far -- earlier there was a report of 8 inches of snow near Watertown, South Dakota.

Here in the Northland we remain dry and on the cold side as were being influenced more by a strong area of high pressure off to our north than we are the low sliding SE through the northern Plains.  Radar echoes have been spreading into southern portions of the Northland this afternoon but as of 4 PM the only reporting station getting light snow was at Brainerd, MN.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies covered the area today with highs in the mid teens to lower 20s.

The main focus for tonight and Monday will be the potential for lake effect snow around Lake Superior.  The high to our N-NW and low passing by to our S will result in a east/northeast wind over Lake Superior tonight and a north/northeast wind on Monday -- The airmass is plenty cold to support lake effect snow with H85 temperatures of -15 to -20 degrees Celsius while lake water temps are at around +2 degrees Celsius.  The negatives would be the relatively dry airmass and the slight shifting in wind directions through Monday.  There's already been some lake effect snow showers today which have affected the Twin Ports, as well as portions of the North Shore and South Shore of Lake Superior but these bands of snow have been decreasing in intensity this afternoon.  Note:  The potential for lake effect snow showers will continue through Monday night with the above mentioned parameters holding in place through then but with the dry air and changing wind directions I don't think snow totals will get out of hand, but with lake effect snow you just never know.

Elsewhere across the Northland expect partly to mostly cloudy skies through Monday.  Some light snow will occur in parts of east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through Monday morning with snow totals generally less than 2 inches.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the single digits and perhaps some teens below in far northern Minnesota to the teens above zero in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Monday will be in the teens and 20s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Event:  *Winter Weather Advisory for Duluth*
Timing:  Until 1 PM CDT Monday

Event:  *Winter Weather Advisory for Superior*
Timing:  Until 4 PM CDT Monday

.Tonight...  Breezy with occasional snow showers.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Snow showers and flurries otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.  Total event snowfall accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.  High 18 to 23.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  33
Low:   16

Sunrise Monday:  7:25 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   7:12 PM CDT

Tim