Sunday, March 5, 2017

A windy storm on the way! Occasional showers and t-storms Monday (Isolated strong storms possible Monday PM) Strong winds with a burst of snow early Tuesday AM

/Issued 5:17 PM CST, Sunday, March 5, 2017/

Here's a look at what the Convection Allowing Models are showing for late Monday afternoon and Monday evening per 18z model run.  Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

First image is from the 3km NAM

Note:  The black outlined area on the two maps below is where thunderstorms could develop late Monday afternoon according to these two computer models, movement of these storms would be toward the north or east.  These should be fast moving storms (If they do form) gusty winds are the main hazard with possibly some hail as well.
















Second image is from the 4km NAM
















Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

Note:  The marginal risk area for severe thunderstorms has expanded north for Monday and now includes most of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.



























A potent early March low pressure system tracks northwest of the Northland Monday and Tuesday.  Low pressure is forecast to deepen from ~987mb Monday morning to ~970mb by early Tuesday morning.  This storm will be very dynamic with strong jet stream winds overspreading the upper Midwest on Monday.  Note:  If this storm happened about a month later I'd be more concerned about a severe weather outbreak in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin but since it's only early March the amount of instability will likely be fairly limited this far north, but with the strong dynamics in place it probably won't take much instability to get a few thunderstorms to develop on Monday.
















Source:  http://wx.aerisweather.com
















A ton of wind warnings and watches in effect for the next few days across the northern and central Plains as a powerful storm affects the region.  Source:  http://www.weather.gov/crh/















Visible satellite images from today.  This one from late this morning.  Source:  http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/




















Second image from late this afternoon.  Source:  http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/




















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Temperature departure map for the week of February 26, 2017.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu




















Precipitation departure map for the week of February 26, 2017.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu




















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

February 26-March 4, 2017

High temperatures:

2/26:  26 F/-2 degrees below normal
2/27:  32 F/+4 degrees above normal
2/28:  32 F/+4 degrees above normal
3/1:  31 F/+2 degrees above normal
3/2:  17 F/-12 degrees below normal
3/3:  21 F/-8 degrees below normal
3/4:  36 F/+6 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

2/26:  5 F/-5 degrees below normal
2/27:  4 F/-7 degrees below normal
2/28:  24 F/+13 degrees above normal
3/1:  15 F/+4 degrees above normal
3/2:  1 F/-11 degrees below normal
3/3:  -9 F/-21 degrees below normal
3/4:  12 F/-1 degree below normal

Total precipitation:  0.31"
Normal:  0.29"
Departure:  +0.02" above normal

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota & northwest Wisconsin

Upper level ridge which was over the upper Midwest on Saturday has pushed off to the east today which has turned the winds aloft to the southwest as a deep trough with up to 150 meter 12-hour 500mb height falls moves east across the western U.S.

Low clouds this morning gave way to sunny skies this afternoon in most of northern Minnesota, eastern Minnesota and in parts of northwest Wisconsin, but low clouds stuck around throughout the day in far northeast Minnesota.  Highs today were in the 40s and 50s with Brainerd approaching 60 degrees late this afternoon (59 F at 4 PM)  It was cooler around Lake Superior with afternoon temperatures in the mid or upper 30s.

Will see low clouds push quickly north out of central Minnesota this evening with the entire Northland expected to be socked in by low clouds tonight and Monday.  There could also be some drizzle as well as some haze and fog.  Southerly winds out ahead of a storm system to our west will pump moist air into the Northland.  Note:  Late afternoon dew points in the mid 40s to low 50s in central/southern Minnesota, this increase in low level moisture will push into our area tonight and tomorrow.

Should see a decent amount of lift move into the upper Midwest on Monday as low pressure wraps up over the Dakotas -- A warm front and cold front connected to the surface low will move through the Northland Monday and Monday evening, this combined with the approach of a strong upper trough will go on to produce occasional rain showers across the area on Monday, lingering into Monday evening.  Scattered thunderstorms should also develop as elevated CAPE increases to between 100-400 j/kg.  Winds aloft will be very strong on Monday (See map above) so if thunderstorms can develop they could contain gusty winds!  There will also be a risk for some hail due to the colder temperatures moving in aloft as the upper trough approaches from the west.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 30s and 40s.  Highs Monday in the 40s and 50s with a chance for a few 60s over far southern portions of the Northland.

As the cold front exits to the east Monday night, strong west winds and falling temperatures move in with a period of snow likely passing through the Northland early Tuesday morning with a dusting of accumulation possible.

Tuesday will feature strong gusty winds out of the west along with passing snow or rain showers.  Wind gusts of 30-40+ mph are possible in our area from Tuesday into early Wednesday morning.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy and hazy.  Patchy drizzle and fog.  Low 32 to 36.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy and hazy.  Patchy drizzle and fog.  Occasional showers.  A few thunderstorms also possible.  High 45 to 50.  Wind east to southeast at 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday night...  Windy.  Temperature 45 to 50 during the evening falling to the upper 20s by dawn.  Wind shifting to the southwest at 20 to 35 mph after midnight.  Occasional showers or thunderstorms during the evening.  Some snow possible after midnight.  Snowfall less than one inch.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  30
Low:   14

Sunrise Monday:  6:38 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   6:02 PM CST

Tim