Saturday, February 18, 2017

Record high broken today (2nd day in a row) at International Falls, MN; 2nd warmest Feb 18th on record at Duluth, MN. Dry Sunday; Rain, few t'storms for Monday

/Issued 5:02 PM CST, Saturday, February 18, 2017/

Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/














More widespread record warmth or near record warmth today.  All the dots on the map represent locations that were breaking or tying the daily record high temperature, or the monthly high temperature late this afternoon.  Source:  http://coolwx.com
















Significant river flooding is possible over the next several days in portions of western and central Wisconsin, far southeast Minnesota and far northeast Iowa.  Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov




















There has been a noticeable southward shift in the storm track for late next week.  With this potential storm still several days away, we could see the storm track creep back toward the north again, but for now it appears that the bulk of the significant snowfall would stay south of the Northland late next week.  Stay tuned.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Sunday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu















High temperature reports from February 17, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Note:  Average high temperatures at this time of year are generally in the low or mid 20s.


Isabella, MN 1 W:  63 F
Brule, WI 11 SSE:  63 F
Seagull Lake, MN 5 E:  62 F
Washburn, WI:  62 F
Askov, MN 3 WNW:  62 F
Kabetogama, MN 1 W:  61 F
Hinckley, MN 2 SSW:  61 F
Cass Lake, MN:  61 F
Scanlon, MN:  60 F
Hayward, WI:  60 F
Ely, MN 5 S:  60 F
Littlefork, MN:  60 F
Siren, WI:  59 F
International Falls, MN:  58 F (Tied with 2000 for warmest February temperature)


Ashland, WI:  58 F
Orr, MN:  57 F
Aitkin, MN:  57 F
Brainerd, MN:  56 F
Duluth, MN 2 WNW:  56 F
Crane Lake, MN:  55 F
Cloquet, MN:  55 F
Proctor, MN 2 SW:  55 F
Two Harbors, MN:  54 F
Duluth, MN (Airport)  52 F* tied the record high for Feb 17th

Record events for February 18th, 2017

*Record high temperature at International Falls, Minnesota.  New record 51 degrees; Previous record 49 degrees set in 1954.

*Duluth, Minnesota had its 2nd warmest February 18th on record with a high temperature of 52 degrees today.  The record high temperature for today is 53 degrees which was set in 1981.

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Another unseasonably mild day as high temperatures climbed into the upper 40s to middle 50s, this despite a fair amount of cold air advection behind Friday evening's cold frontal passage.  850mb temperatures this afternoon ranged from +4 to +6 C, a good 10 degrees cooler than Friday.  Sunshine earlier in the day gave way to widespread mid to high level cloudiness this afternoon.  It was a windy start to the day with westerly winds gusting over 25 mph, the wind did diminish somewhat this afternoon.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies through Sunday night.  Potential for some patchy fog late tonight into Sunday morning, and again late Sunday night.  Still mild with lows tonight in the 20s and 30s, highs Sunday in the 40s and 50s with 30s around Lake Superior, lows Sunday night mainly in the 30s.

Changes occur on Monday as low pressure lifts northeast through the northern Plains -- A warm front and cold front attached to this low will sweep through the Northland Monday and Monday night.  An unusually moist airmass will be found ahead of the surface low with PWATS ~1.00" streaming north into our area, this moisture combined with the lift with the approaching low and frontal boundaries will lead to occasional rain across the Northland for Monday and Monday night.  Note:  There will also be some elevated instability over parts of the area on Monday with CAPE of around 100-300 j/kg, this could cause a few thunderstorms to develop, and if storms do form they will be capable of producing brief heavy downpours and some lightning strikes.

It will remain very mild on Monday with highs in the 40s and 50s with 30s near Lake Superior.  Lows Monday night will mainly be in the 30s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 29 to 33.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 39 to 44 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  25
Low:     7

Sunrise Sunday:  7:06 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   5:40 PM CST

Tim