Sunday, February 19, 2017

Rain, few t-storms on the way for Monday (Rainfall amounts 0.25"-0.50", locally higher amounts likely)

/Issued 4:09 PM CST, Sunday, February 19, 2017/

Source:  18z HRRRX model; https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov


















Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/













Here's the latest on the potential winter storm for late this week.  Still looks like the main impacts from this storm would remain south of the Northland unless the storm track shifts farther north in coming days.  Stay tuned.
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Temperature departure map for the week of February 12th.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu




















Precipitation departure map for the week of February 12th.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu





















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

February 12-18, 2017

High temperatures:

*=Tied record high temperature

2/12:  35 F/+12 degrees above normal
2/13:  42 F/+19 degrees above normal
2/14:  35 F/+11 degrees above normal
2/15:  25 F/+1 degree above normal
2/16:  32 F/+8 degrees above normal
2/17:  *52 F/+27 degrees above normal
2/18:  52 F/+27 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

*=Record warm low temperature

2/12:  22 F/+17 degrees above normal
2/13:  20 F/+15 degrees above normal
2/14:  18 F/+12 degrees above normal
2/15:  9 F/+3 degrees above normal
2/16:  20 F/+14 degrees above normal
2/17:  23 F/+16 degrees above normal
2/18:  *36 F/+29 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  Trace
Normal:  0.19"
Departure:  -0.19" below normal

*Record event*

Duluth, Minnesota -- A record warm low temperature on February 18, 2017.  New record:  36 degrees; Old record 35 degrees set in 1981.  Note:  This is the 6th time so far this year with either a record warm low temperature or a record low temperature that was tied.

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin


One last dry day before the rain moves in.  A mix of sun/clouds over the Northland today with more unseasonably warm temperatures as highs topped out in the mid 40s to mid 50s with mid and upper 30s around Lake Superior.

Low pressure organizing over the northern/central Rockies this afternoon will move northeast into the northern Plains by Monday morning, this low will then continue to lift northeast reaching the Manitoba-Ontario border by Monday evening.  A warm front and cold front attached to this low will pass through the Northland through Monday night.

A very moist airmass will surge into the Northland on Monday as PWATS climb to between 0.90" and 1.25" (That's a decent amount of moisture in the summer, but is even more impressive considering that its February!)

Elevated instability will also increase beginning later tonight, peaking on Monday with CAPE of around 100-300 j/kg possible over parts of the area.

Will see a few showers develop later tonight with rain becoming more widespread across the area Monday into Monday evening before the rain comes to an end from west to east Monday night.

Isolated thunderstorms are also expected to develop late tonight into Monday.  These storms will be capable of producing some lightning along with brief heavy downpours.

Lows tonight will be in the 30s to lower 40s.  Highs on Monday in the 40s and 50s with 30s and 40s near Lake Superior.  Lows Monday night will be in the 20s and 30s.

Looks mainly dry on Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s.  The next low pressure system that may affect us comes on Wednesday, this one could bring some rain or snow to parts of the Northland depending on its track.  At the moment it looks like the greatest potential for snow or a rain/snow mix would be north of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota with light snowfall accumulations possible.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible toward daybreak.  Low 33 to 36.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Monday...  Breezy.  A few showers possible during the morning.  Rain during the afternoon.  Isolated thunderstorms possible.  Areas of fog.  High 42 to 47 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  26
Low:     8

Sunrise Monday:  7:04 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   5:41 PM CST

Tim