Sunday, February 26, 2017

Little bit of snow possible late tonight-Mon AM (30s and even some 40s Mon PM) More snow or mixed precip Mon night-Tue. Recap of last night's snow event, and some winter stats for Duluth in this post

/Issued 5:32 PM CST, Sunday, February 26, 2017/

The map below shows what areas have the greatest and least potential for around 4 inches of snow from Monday night into Tuesday.  Computer models disagree as to how things will play out for late Monday night into Tuesday so some changes to the map below are possible in the next 24 hours.  Stay tuned.












Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Temperature departure map for the week of February 19.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu




















Precipitation departure map for the week of February 19.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu




















Snowfall reports from February 25-26, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Breezy Point, MN:  6.0"
Cross Lake, MN:  5.5"
Emily, MN:  5.0"
Nisswa, MN 3 NE:  4.5"
Duluth, MN (National Weather Service)  4.2"
Mahtowa, MN 3 N:  4.1"
Canyon, MN:  4.0"
Cloquet, MN:  4.0"
Beaver Bay, MN:  3.8"
Kettle River, MN:  3.8"
Two Harbors, MN 5 NW:  3.6"
Two Harbors, MN:  3.0"
Superior, WI 3 SE:  3.0"
West Duluth, MN:  3.0"
Amnicon Falls State Park, WI:  2.9"
Brainerd, MN 1 NE:  2.8"
Piedmont Heights, MN:  2.6"
Pillager, MN:  2.0"
Brimson, MN:  1.0"

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

February 19-25, 2017

High temperatures:

2/19:  43 F/+18 degrees above normal
2/20:  45 F/+19 degrees above normal
2/21:  50 F/+24 degrees above normal
2/22:  46 F/+20 degrees above normal
2/23:  33 F/+6 degrees above normal
2/24:  21 F/-6 degrees below normal
2/25:  27 F/Normal

Low temperatures:

*=Record warm low temperature broken or tied

2/19:  28 F/+21 degrees above normal
2/20:  *37 F/+29 degrees above normal
2/21:  *33 F/+25 degrees above normal
2/22:  33 F/+24 degrees above normal
2/23:  21 F/+12 degrees above normal
2/24:  13 F/+4 degrees above normal
2/25:  5 F/-5 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  1.08"
Normal:  0.24"
Departure:  +0.84" above normal

The final day of Meteorological Winter is on Tuesday (28th)  

Note:  Meteorological winter is the period from December 1st through February 28th.

Winter stats for Duluth, Minnesota thru February 26th.

Total snowfall:  48.1"
Average (Dec-Feb):  49.5"
My forecast:  50-55"

I'll need ~2 more inches of snow by Tuesday to hit the low end of my predicted 50-55" winter snowfall total.

Temperature:  18.2 degrees
Average (Dec-Feb)  13.3 degrees

This winter is running nearly +5.0 degrees warmer than average! My forecast was for temperatures to end up around -1.0 degree below average.

By the way here is a link to my winter forecast for Duluth which was made on October 25th http://timsweatherblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/2016-2017-winter-forecast-for-duluth.html

Summary:  My temperature forecast for this winter busted, but I'm happy with my snowfall prediction for this winter, and will see how much snow will add in March and April which goes into the annual total which as of today sits at ~56".  My annual snowfall forecast total was 85-90".

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Snow was in the forecast last night, and it did snow, but the amount of snow that fell in parts of the Northland was more than what was forecast.  The area from the Brainerd Lakes to Duluth ended up with between 3 inches and 6 inches of new snow last night with the highest totals reported around the Brainerd area - This band of snow was quite narrow with totals north/south of the heaviest band of snow generally around one inch or less.

A cold front moved through the area this morning and was accompanied by a narrow line of locally heavy snow squalls and gusty winds -- Skies this afternoon turned sunny to mostly sunny with temperatures ranging from the upper teens in far northern Minnesota to the 20s over the rest of the area, there were even a few locations sitting at 30 degrees late this afternoon (Hinckley, Siren and Hayward)

Will start with clear to partly cloudy skies over the Northland this evening but clouds will increase during the night with another round of light snow developing after midnight in parts of east central Minnesota (Generally near or south of the Highway 2 corridor)  This area of light snow is then forecast to lift north of the Highway 2 corridor on Monday.  Not expecting much snow late tonight or Monday with accumulations generally less than an inch.  Low temperatures tonight will be in the single digits below to teens above zero.

The cold front which passed through the area earlier today will return as a warm front on Monday.  This warm front will then turn back into a cold front, and that boundary will slide through the Northland from Monday night into Tuesday -- A couple different periods of frontogenesis will aid in the development of some precipitation in our area through Tuesday.  There will also be a few areas of low pressure which are forecast to move east/northeast out of the Rockies and central Plains, additional lift will take place as those lows move through.

Temperatures on Monday will warm into the 30s with 40s over southern areas.  Lows Monday night will be in the 20s to lower 30s.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 20s and 30s.  Note:  Some of the precipitation may fall as rain or drizzle late Monday night or Tuesday mainly over parts of northwest Wisconsin, and there is a chance for light ice accumulations if surface temperatures remain near the freezing mark.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Clear this evening with increasing cloudiness late.  Light snow possible mainly after 4 AM.  Low 8 to 13.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming light and variable late.

.Monday...  Light snow possible early with total snowfall less than one inch.  Mostly cloudy with some breaks in the clouds.  High 30 to 35.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  28
Low:   11

Sunrise Monday:  6:52 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   5:52 PM CST

Tim