Wednesday, February 22, 2017

6-10"+ snow totals south of the Northland late Thursday night-Friday. Rain and Snow this evening (Around one inch of snow possible) Dry and cooler but still above average temps for Thursday

/Issued 4:48 PM CST, Wednesday, February 22, 2017/

Here's my preliminary snowfall potential map for Friday -- The heaviest snow still looks like it'll be south of the Northland but some snow accumulation is possible in parts of eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, mostly south of Duluth and Superior.












Latest winter weather headlines map.  Source:  http://www.weather.gov/crh/

Blue area=Winter Storm Watch
Green area=Blizzard Watch

Note:  Most of these headlines are in effect from Thursday evening through Friday night.















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov




















Record events for February 21, 2017

*Duluth, Minnesota -- Record warm low temperature tied.  Low temperature was 33 degrees which ties the previous record warm low temperature of 33 degrees which was set in 1878.  Note:  High temperature of 50 degrees on February 21st tied for 2nd warmest high temperature on record.  The record high is 57 degrees which was set in 1877.

*International Falls, Minnesota -- Record warm low temperature of 31 degrees.  The old record was 29 degrees set in 1981.  Note:  High temperature of 45 degrees on February 21st tied with 1984 for 2nd warmest high temperature on record.  The record high is 50 degrees which was set in 2000.

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

More mild temperatures today with highs ranging from the 50s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin to the 30s across northern Minnesota.  Mostly cloudy skies were found over the area this afternoon with a few peeks of sun from time to time.

There's been some rain moving through parts of north central Minnesota this afternoon with even a few isolated thunderstorms mainly toward the Brainerd Lakes area.  A fairly strong disturbance is moving east through the upper Midwest this afternoon while a cold front also tracks southeast across the Northland -- This combined with weak amounts of elevated instability, steep mid level lapse rates and decent frontogenesis has led to the rain that has fallen this afternoon over parts of the Northland.

A band of precipitation will continue to track generally toward the east affecting parts of the Northland this evening -- Precipitation will likely start as rain but should transition to a period of snow before ending later this evening or toward midnight.  Note:  There is a chance for brief bursts of moderate to even heavy snowfall at some point this evening especially along and or slightly north/south of the Highway 2 corridor.  A quick 1 to 2 inches of snow is possible this evening where-ever this snow band sets up.

Low temperatures tonight will mainly be in the 20s with teens possible in far northern Minnesota.

Mainly dry weather is expected in our area for Thursday but there will be a cold front which will slowly push south out of Ontario Canada while the storm that has been showing up for days now finally moves out into the central Plains by Thursday night.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 20s and 30s with near 40 degree temperatures in far southern portions of the Northland.

Obviously the big focus remains on the well advertised winter storm for late this week.  Looking at the computer models shows all but the NAM and SREF targeting southern Minnesota and western/central portions of Wisconsin for the heaviest snowfall of 6-10 inches with locally higher amounts.  The NAM and SREF models remain a lot farther north with the storm track and associated band of heavy snow with most of the Northland getting a fairly significant winter storm based on those two model solutions -- Throw them out! Flush them down the toilet! Past experience says to go with the EURO and the other forecast models that keep this storm on a more southerly track.  Speaking of the European model, it really hasn't budged on it's projected storm track for several days now.  So one of the models will bust big time with this storm and I'm pretty confident that it will be the NAM that will bust!

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Occasional rain mixing with and changing to snow before ending later this evening.  Snowfall of around one inch possible.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind northeast becoming north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday...  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  27
Low:     9

Sunrise Thursday:  6:58 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   5:46 PM CST

Tim