Sunday, January 1, 2017

January 2017 long range outlook for Duluth, Minnesota

/Issued 7:27 AM CST, January 1, 2017/

January 2017 temperature anomaly forecast.  Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Blue and purple colors=Below average temperatures
Orange and red colors=Above average temperatures
White=Near normal temperatures














January 2017 precipitation anomaly forecast.  Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Green=Above average precipitation
Yellow=Below average precipitation
White=Near normal precipitation














Note:  Before diving into January lets take a look back at my forecast for December to see how that verified.

Snowfall total:

My prediction:  Around 20"
Actual:  21.3"

Off by 1.3"

Number of subzero nights:

My prediction:  4-7
Actual:  8

Temperature:  

My prediction:  Around 18.0 degrees
Actual:  15.9 degrees

Off by 2.1 degrees

Note:  Here's a link to my December forecast which was made on November 30th http://timsweatherblog.blogspot.com/2016/11/december-2016-long-range-outlook-for.html

Climate normals for January at Duluth, Minnesota
Base period:  1981-2010

Temperature:  10.2 degrees
Snowfall:  19.4"
Precipitation:  0.96"

Warmest January on record:  23.7 degrees set in 2006
Coldest January on record:  -7.2 degrees set in 1912

Snowiest January on record:  46.8" set in 1969
Least snowiest January on record:  2.0" set in 1921

Wettest January on record:  4.70" set in 1969
Driest January on record:  0.13" set in 2008

Normal high on the 1st:  19 F
Normal high on the 31st:  20 F

Normal low on the 1st:  3 F
Normal low on the 31st:  2 F

Average number of subzero days:  14
Average number of days with snow (0.1" or greater)  13

Astronomical Data:

Sunrise on the 1st:  7:53 AM CST
Sunrise on the 31st:  7:35 AM CST

Sunset on the 1st:  4:31 PM CST
Sunset on the 31st:  5:10 PM CST

Here's my January forecast for Duluth, Minnesota

Temperature:  Around 11 degrees (Slightly above normal by 0.8 degrees)

Snowfall:  Around 25" (~5.5" above normal)

Number of subzero days:  ~15 (Close to normal)

Tim