Sunday, January 8, 2017

A couple rounds of light snow through Tuesday; Still cold this week but signs of a thaw after the 17th

/Issued 3:15 PM CST, Sunday, January 8, 2017/












Surface temperature anomaly forecast per 1/8/17 12z GEFS model.  Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Note:  This pattern change isn't a lock just yet since its still about a week away but the long range trends showing up in the computer models have been pretty consistent in showing a pattern that would favor milder/thaw-like temperatures (30s and 40s in Minnesota and Wisconsin) later this month.

























Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Monday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Temperature departure map for the week of January 1, 2017.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/




















Precipitation departure map for the week of January 1, 2017.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/





















Note:  A very cold first week of January across the Northland -- Listed below are the average temperatures from January 1-7, and their departure from normal for select cities in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

International Falls, MN:  -3.1 F (-7.5 degrees below normal)
Brainerd, MN:  0.5 F (-8.4 degrees below normal)
Duluth, MN:  3.8 F (-6.6 degrees below normal)
Winter, WI:  4.6 F (-6.0 degrees below normal)
Grand Marais, MN:  11.8 F (-3.9 degrees below normal)

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, MN (Airport location)

January 1-7, 2017

High temperatures:

1/1:  25 F/+6 degrees above normal
1/2:  31 F/+12 degrees above normal
1/3:  31 F/+12 degrees above normal
1/4:  -3 F/-22 degrees below normal
1/5:  -3 F/-22 degrees below normal
1/6:  2 F/-17 degrees below normal
1/7:  3 F/-16 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

1/1:  11 F/+8 degrees above normal
1/2:  17 F/+14 degrees above normal
1/3:  -3 F/-5 degrees below normal
1/4:  -13 F/-15 degrees below normal
1/5:  -17 F/-19 degrees below normal
1/6:  -19 F/-21 degrees below normal
1/7:  -9 F/-11 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  0.16"
Normal:  0.25"
Departure:  -0.09" below normal

Winter 2016-17 snowfall totals thus far
Note:  Totals listed below are through January 7, 2017

Bismarck, ND:  53.3" (+30.9" above normal)
International Falls, MN:  44.2" (+9.5" above normal)
Grand Forks, ND:  36.0" (+15.4" above normal)
Duluth, MN:  31.2" (-7.3" below normal)
Twin Cities, MN:  18.1" (-6.4" below normal)

Weather Synopsis:

Clouds have slowly been on the increase today as low pressure and an upper level disturbance moves east across the northern Plains.  Highs today were in the single digits and lower teens so a tad warmer than previous days.

There appears to be about three different rounds of light snow that will affect most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin between this evening and Tuesday.

*Round number one will move through the Northland this evening with light snow coming to an end from west to east between 9 PM-Midnight.  Snow ratios will be fairly high tonight ranging from around 15:1 to 20:1 this should yield about 1-2" of fluffy snow with possibly up to 3" in a few isolated locations, snow shouldn't last more than 4-5 hours in any given location, but the snow could come down at a pretty good clip once it gets started.

Lows tonight will range from the teens and possibly 20s below zero in northern Minnesota to the single digits below to around 10 above zero in northwest Wisconsin.

*Might have some peeks of sun in parts of the Northland Monday morning but any sun will be short lived as overcast skies return ahead of the next low pressure system which will spread an area of snow across the area from Monday afternoon into Monday night.  Another 1-2" of snow is expected with this second round that moves through Monday PM.

Highs on Monday will be in the single digits and teens.

*The third and final round of snow is expected to move through northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday as low pressure tracks northeast through the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region.  This round of snow just like the other two shouldn't last very long, maybe around 4 hours, this will tend to limit snowfall accumulations to about 1 or 2".

Note:  If you add up the three separate snowfall events through Tuesday, then most of the Northland should pick up between 3-8" of new snow, this won't all fall in one single event though, instead it will be spread out in three different events.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Light snow developing around 5 PM then ending by midnight.  Total snowfall accumulation of around 1-2".  Low 2 below to 7 below.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph becoming west to southwest late.

.Monday...  Some morning sun then clouding up with light snow possible mainly after 2 PM.  High 13 to 18.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph becoming southeast during the afternoon.

.Monday night...  Light snow with accumulations of 1-2".

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  19
Low:     2

Sunrise Monday:  7:52 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   4:40 PM CST

Tim