Friday, December 9, 2016

Subzero temps expected tonight; Snow on Sunday; Wicked cold next Tue-Fri

/Issued 4:55 PM CST, Friday, December 9, 2016/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/

18z RAP model.















Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/















Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

12z European Ensemble model.














Saturday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Brr! Check out these temperatures from around Noon today.  Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/















Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

The first shot of what will be a couple shots of arctic air during the next week or so arrived today with temperatures ranging from around 5 above to the mid teens across the Northland -- This is well below average for December 9th, the average high temperatures on today's date are generally in the low to mid 20s.  Winds today were out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Note:  Late afternoon wind chills ranged from around 10 below to 10 above zero in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (December 9)

Widespread clouds covered the Northland this afternoon and these clouds will likely stick around at least through the evening hours (Possibly longer) Cold airmass is already in place with 850mb temperatures of -18 to -22 C.  Low temperatures tonight will range from the single digits above to teens below zero -- This will likely be the first subzero night this winter at many locations in the Northland.  Winds tonight will remain out of the northwest or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday (December 10)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected on Saturday with highs in the single digits to around 10 above, winds will be out of the west but will gradually turn to the east or southeast later in the day.

There is a chance for some light snow by Saturday night with a better chance for snow farther south in Minnesota.  Lows tomorrow night will be in the single digits below to around 10 above zero with winds out of the east or southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Synopsis:  Arctic high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest through Saturday before shifting to the east by Sunday morning.

.Extended Forecast...

Sunday (December 11)

A few inches of snow are possible on Sunday in parts of the Northland as a low pressure trough/disturbance moves east out of the northern Plains.  The snow should come to an end Sunday evening.  Highs on Sunday will moderate into the teens and 20s with lows Sunday night ranging from the single digits to around 20 degrees.

Note:  East wind off Lake Superior may enhance the snow just a bit along the North Shore from Sunday into Sunday evening with 850mb temperatures forecast to be at around -10 C while lake water temperatures are at around +6 C.  Not real sure yet how much lake enhanced snow will occur but it needs to be watched since the wind direction will be favorable especially northeast of Duluth the way it looks now.

Monday (December 12)

One more relatively mild day on Monday with possible snow showers/flurries especially later in the day as an arctic front blasts SE across the Northland.  Highs on Monday will be in the teens and 20s.

Note:  The well advertised arctic blast is still on track for next week or from Tuesday-Friday (13th-16th) Daytime highs likely in the single digits below to single digits above zero with lows ranging from 10 below to around 25 below zero (Possibly colder up north) It also looks breezy at times which will result in dangerously low wind chills from 25 below to 40 below zero at times.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy with some clearing late.  A few flurries.  Low 0 to 5 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Wind chills ranging from 10 below to 20 below.

.Saturday...  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 5 to 10.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday...  Some snow.  Accumulation of 2-3" possible.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  24
Low:    9

Sunrise Saturday:  7:43 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:20 PM CST

Tim