Friday, December 16, 2016

Snow tonight-Saturday AM (Various warnings and advisories in effect) Bitterly cold/dangerously low wind chills return Saturday and Sunday

/Issued 5:30 PM CST, Friday, December 16, 2016/

Source:  http://wx.aerisweather.com

Darker blue colors indicate heavier snowfall vs. the lighter blue colors.















Lots of different headlines in effect across the Upper Midwest (See map below)

Click on the links below for more information.

Winter Storm Warning (Pink area on map) http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter storm warning

Winter Weather Advisory (Purple area on map) http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter weather advisory

Wind Chill Advisory (Lighter blue area on map) http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=wind chill advisory

Wind Chill Warning (Somewhat darker blue area on map) http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=wind chill warning

Flood Warning (Green area on map) http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=flood warning















My snowfall accumulation for this event.












Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

Temperature departure map for December 1-15, 2016.


Snowfall departure map for December 1-15, 2016.



















Storm track forecast for tonight and Saturday.  Source:  www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov




















High temperature forecast for Saturday.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov




















Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure averaging 986-990mb has been moving slowly east out of the Rockies and into the central Plains this afternoon.  There's been some light snow and snow flurries in parts of the area today with snow accumulations generally around an inch or less thus far across far southern portions of the Northland.  Still chilly today with highs in the single digits and teens.  Winds were out of the north or east at around 10 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (December 16)

Snow will fall across east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight as low pressure lifts E/NE into eastern Missouri by daybreak.  There will also be some light snow or flurries at times farther north affecting the Iron Range, North Shore and Borderland areas but the heavier snowfall is expected to remain south of those areas tonight.  Lows will range from the single digits below to around 10 below in northern Minnesota to the single digits above zero in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will be out of the north at 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday (December 17)

Low pressure scoots northeast out of eastern Missouri and into the Ohio Valley on Saturday while arctic high pressure builds S/SE out of the northern Rockies.  The big story Saturday will be the return of bitter cold arctic air -- 850mb temperatures bottom out in the -25 to -30 C range.  Highs will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with lows Saturday night in the teens and 20s below zero with 30s below even possible in western-northern areas.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Note:  Heavy lake effect and lake enhanced snow will develop tonight and persist into Saturday night along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin as arctic air and N-NW winds blow over the lake.  This lake snow will affect Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties through Saturday morning, then as winds shift to the NW the lake effect potential will diminish in Douglas County but will continue in Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

.Extended Forecast...

Sunday (December 18)

Bitterly cold but mostly dry as arctic high pressure passes through the region.  Highs will only be in the single digits and teens below zero, lows Sunday night in the teens and 20s below.

Monday (December 19)

Warming up into the teens and even the 20s as a milder SW wind develops.  Could be some flurries/snow showers around as well.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Event:  *Winter Storm Warning for Superior*
Timing:  Until Noon CST Saturday

Event:  *Winter Weather Advisory for Duluth*
Timing:  Until Noon CST Saturday

.Tonight...  Light snow.  Low 0 to 5 below.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Light snow and flurries ending during the morning.  Total event snowfall accumulation ranging from 1 to around 4".  High 0 to 5 above.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  22
Low:    7

Sunrise Saturday:  7:48 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:21 PM CST

Tim