Saturday, December 10, 2016

Snow Sunday; Burst of light snow Mon PM; More snow possible Dec 16-17; Warming up Sunday; Arctic air Tue-Fri

/Issued 5:40 PM CST, Saturday, December 10, 2016/

Our next snow maker is currently over the northern Rockies this afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery, this feature will track east-southeast through Sunday evening.

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/















Forecast surface maps for Sunday.  Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Blue=Snow








































Purple area on map=Winter Weather Advisory.  More information at this link http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory











Winter Weather Advisory in purple; Winter Storm Warning in pink.

Source:  http://wx.aerisweather.com/















Here's my snowfall accumulation map thru Sunday evening -- About 2-5" of snow is expected in all but far northern Minnesota where only around 1" or less of accumulation is forecast.











Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Sunday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Low temperature reports for Saturday morning, December 10, 2016

Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Effie, MN 7 E:  -19 F
Ash Lake, MN 5 NW:  -18 F
Bigfork, MN:  -17 F
Togo, MN:  -17 F
Embarrass, MN:  -15 F

Orr, MN:  -15 F
International Falls, MN:  -14 F
Cook, MN:  -13 F
Skibo, MN:  -13 F
Babbitt, MN:  -12 F

Crane Lake, MN:  -11 F
Ely, MN:  -11 F
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN (Airport)  -11 F
Walker, MN:  -11 F
Northome, MN:  -11 F

Cotton, MN 3 SE:  -9 F
Isabella, MN 1 W:  -8 F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport)  -6 F
Glidden, WI:  -5 F
Fifield, WI 12 ENE:  -3 F

Silver Bay, MN:  -2 F
Two Harbors, MN:  -2 F
Brainerd, MN:  -1 F
Island Lake, MN:  -1 F
Grand Rapids, MN:  -1 F
Duluth, MN (Airport)  1 F

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

A cold early December day with highs only in the single digits to around 10 above zero.  Sky conditions varied from mostly cloudy to partly sunny today, winds were generally variable in direction at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (December 10)

Partly to mostly cloudy.  Some light snow or flurries are possible later tonight in western-southern portions of the area while lake effect snow showers are possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior especially after midnight.  Low temperatures will range from the teens below zero in far northern Minnesota to the single digits and lower teens in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Light and variable wind will become east during the night.

Sunday (December 11)

Light snow should be fairly widespread across the Northland on Sunday with the least amount of snow expected in far northern Minnesota with the most snow forecast to be around Lake Superior, east central Minnesota into portions of northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Sunday will warm up a bit compared to today with temperatures in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the east at 5 to 15 mph.

Light snow will end from west to east Sunday night, otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows ranging from around zero to the teens.  Winds will shift to the north or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Synopsis:  Arctic high pressure will be centered to our north/east through Sunday night while a rather strong disturbance moves east out of the northern Rockies and through the Upper Midwest during the next 24 hours.  Another low pressure system will move east out of the western High Plains and is forecast to move into southern Wisconsin by Sunday evening.  Both of those systems will bring some snow to the Northland but our area should be impacted more by the feature that is moving across Montana this afternoon.

Note:  There will also be some lake enhanced snow around Lake Superior as 850mb temperatures range from -10 to -15 C while lake water temps are sitting at around +6 C.  Winds will shift to the east tonight and will remain out of the east on Sunday so the potential for lake enhanced snow will be greatest on the north side of Duluth and up along the North Shore.  Winds will shift to the north Sunday evening which will diminish the lake enhanced snow along the North Shore.  There is a chance that a few locations along the North Shore accumulate more than 6" of snow on Sunday and it wouldn't surprise me if an upgrade to a warning were to occur along the North Shore.

.Extended Forecast...

Monday (December 12)

An arctic front moves through the Northland later in the day on Monday -- Snow showers and flurries will likely accompany this front with a dusting to an inch of accumulation possible.  Highs are expected to be in the teens to lower 20s with lows Monday night in the single digits and teens below zero.

Tuesday (December 13)

Very cold with scattered flurries possible.  Highs only in the single digits below to single digits above zero.

Note:  Wind chill headlines may be needed at times between Tuesday through Friday morning, December 13-16.

There is a chance for another snow event across the Upper Midwest, possibly also affecting parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on the 16th-17th.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Event:  *Winter Weather Advisory*
Timing:  Midnight tonight until 9 PM CST Sunday

.Tonight...  Partly cloudy this evening.  Mostly cloudy after midnight.  Light snow and flurries gradually developing after 3 AM.  Snowfall accumulation less than 1" by daybreak.  Low 3 below to 2 above with slowly rising temperatures late.  Wind variable around 10 mph becoming east late.

.Sunday...  Snow.  High 20 to 25.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday night...  Snow ending during the evening.  Total accumulation 2-5".

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  23
Low:     9

Sunrise Sunday:  7:44 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   4:20 PM CST

Tim