Monday, December 19, 2016

Significant storm possible this weekend (Wind/Snow/Rain/Freezing rain) Light snow late tonight in northern MN; Near or above freezing on Tue! A few inches of snow possible Wed

/Issued 4:53 PM CST, Monday, December 19, 2016/

All eyes are on this weekend as a potentially significant storm affects the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes -- There will also be two weaker systems that will affect the Northland Tuesday morning and on Wednesday but by far the bigger storm potential is for the upcoming holiday weekend.

-Computer models agree (So far) that there will be a storm this weekend but differ on the track.

-I've put together a couple of maps showing the possible outcomes based on the models storm track.

Solution number 1:  Most favorable storm track for a snow event (Possibly a heavy one) for much of the Northland (Blue outlined area on map)



















Solution number 2:  The heavy snow area would be farther west/north with a track like the one shown below.  This track would also increase the odds for the precipitation to change from snow to rain with sleet and freezing rain even possible east of that red line.
















Solution number 3:  Heavy snow area would setup slightly more to the east compared to solution number 2.  Rain from southern Minnesota to central Wisconsin with a messy mix of precipitation types in between the heavy snow shield to the NW and the rain area to the SE.
















Source:  http://www.hopwrf.info/
















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Tuesday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/




















Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

*8 days in a row with a subzero low temperature (December 12th-19th, 2016) The last December to have a longer streak than this current one was in 2013!  Dec '13 had 14 days in a row with a subzero low temperature (5th-18th)

*Average December temperature thru the 18th:  11.9 degrees (-4.8 degrees below normal)

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Mild, Pacific air has flooded into the Northland today.  Sort of a mixed bag of weather over the area today with clouds, sun and even some passing snow showers in northern Minnesota.  Highs today were in the 20s with a southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (December 19)

Low pressure will track from western Saskatchewan Province to western Ontario Province tonight.  Snow showers and flurries will likely develop later in the night mainly across northern Minnesota where up to 1-2" of snow accumulation is possible through Tuesday morning.  Lows tonight will be in the teens and 20s with winds remaining out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday (December 20)

Breezy but mild.  Low pressure passes north of Lake Superior while a trough swings through the Northland.  Snow showers and flurries in parts of the area tomorrow morning followed by mainly dry conditions tomorrow afternoon-tomorrow night.  Highs will be in the 30s with lows mainly in the teens.  Winds will be out of the west or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

.Extended Forecast...

Wednesday (December 21)

An Alberta Clipper is forecast to track east/southeast through the Northland on Wednesday -- This system looks like it will bring a light snowfall event to most of the area with accumulations ending up in the 1-3" range with isolated 4" totals possible especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Highs will be in the 30s with 20s in far northern Minnesota.  Lows Wednesday night will be in the teens and 20s.

Thursday (December 22)

Dry with highs in the 20s and 30s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few snow showers or flurries possible after midnight.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday...  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 29 to 34.  Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday...  Light snow with accumulation of 1-3" possible.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  21
Low:     6

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:51 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:22 PM CST

Tim