Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Heavy lake effect snow late tonight-Friday along the South Shore of Lake Superior; Update on this weekend's possible snow event and on next week's arctic blast

/Issued 5:12 PM CST, Wednesday, December 7, 2016/

The big story through Friday will be the heavy lake effect snowfall along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin east of Douglas County.

More information on the various headlines at the following links

Lake Effect Snow Warning http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=lake%20effect%20snow%20warning

Lake Effect Snow Advisory http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=lake%20effect%20snow%20advisory











An update on the weekend snow event.

I put together two possible outcomes based on today's model data.  This first image would be a snowier solution for Duluth, the North Shore and South Shore of Lake Superior and southern portions of the Northland.  A few inches of system snow plus a few more inches of lake enhanced snow would occur in the Twin Ports based on the solution below.















The second solution (Shown below) would produce little if any snow in the Twin Ports area and over most of the Northland.  A farther south storm track and a less intense low pressure system compared to the image above.

There is quite a bit uncertainty with this weekend's snow event.  Stay tuned.















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Thursday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 998mb was over southern Hudson Bay Canada with arctic high pressure of 1044mb over southern Alberta Province.  Gusty winds and occasional snow showers lingered across the Northland today with highs generally in the mid teens to mid 20s which is near to below average by around 5 degrees, not epic cold by any means but certainly a little shocking when you step outdoors considering how warm it has been up until the past few days.  As mentioned above, the wind was still whipping around today with a west or southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25-35 mph.  Late afternoon wind chills were generally in the single digits and teens but subzero chills were reported at 4 PM at Brainerd (-2 F)

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight (December 7)

A trough of low pressure will swing S-SE through the area tonight which will keep snow showers and flurries going through the night.  A wind shift will occur behind the trough with winds going from W-SW to the N-NW.  Low temperatures will be in teens and 20s so little change from today's high temps.  Wind speeds will range from 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.

Thursday (December 8)

Arctic high pressure near 1050mb will build into the northern Plains on Thursday while a trough lingers over the western Great Lakes region.  Scattered flurries and snow showers should continue tomorrow with highs in the teens and 20s.  Lows Thursday night will be in the single digits and teens.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Friday (December 9)

Mainly dry on Friday with highs mainly in the teens.  Lows Friday night will range from the single digits below to around 10 above zero.

Saturday (December 10)

Snow, or no snow?  Models are in disagreement at the moment so this could go either way.  It does look dry during the day, if snow does move into the Northland it would likely hold off until the evening or overnight period.  Highs on Saturday will be in the teens to around 20 degrees.

Note:  Next week still looks frigid with perhaps a few days in a row where high temperatures struggle to hit zero in parts of the Northland -- Low temperatures are forecast to be in the teens, 20s and 30s below zero with the coldest temperatures expected to hit Tuesday-Thursday (December 13-15)

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Breezy.  Occasional snow showers and flurries.  Low 17 to 21.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday...  Flurries or snow showers.  High 23 to 28.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  24
Low:   10

Sunrise Thursday:  7:41 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:20 PM CST

Tim