Friday, December 2, 2016

Fall 2016 was the warmest in Minnesota history dating back to 1895. Some snow or rain-snow mix on Sunday; Colder mid to late next week

/Issued 4:22 PM CST, Friday, December 2, 2016/

Future radar for early Sunday afternoon per 18z 12 KM NAM.  Source, http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Blue=Snow
Green=Rain















Tonight's low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Saturday's high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/



















Source:  http://blog-weathertalk.extension.umn.edu/

*Fall 2016 was warmest in Minnesota history dating back to 1895.

*January through November 2016 was 2nd warmest in Minnesota history surpassed only by 2012.

*First 11 months of 2016 have been the 3rd wettest in Minnesota history.

*The following cities in Minnesota reported the warmest November in their climate history -  International Falls, Park Rapids, Gunflint Lake, Tower, Ada, Cloquet, Redwood Falls, and La Crescent

*On a statewide basis it was the 2nd warmest November in history - The warmest November occurred in 2001.

*Across the observation network in Minnesota 156 daily high maximum temperature records were set or tied.  58 record warm minimum temperature records were set or tied.

*For the autumn season (September-November) it was the warmest in state history dating back to 1895.  On a statewide basis the mean temperature for the 3-month period was about 6 degrees above normal.  For the first 11 months of 2016, it has been the 2nd warmest in state history, only 2012 was warmer.

*3rd wettest November on record at Grand Rapids with a precipitation total of 3.79"; Also the 3rd wettest November on record at Grand Marais with a precipitation total of 4.20".

*A statewide snowfall record was broken at Grand Rapids, Minnesota on November 18th.  Snowfall total was 17.0"; The old record was 15.0" at Crookston in 1998.

Fall 2016 Climate Summaries

September 1 - November 30

Duluth, Minnesota

Average temperature:  49.2 degrees
Normal:  42.5 degrees
Departure:  +6.7 degrees above normal

Note:  This was the 3rd warmest Fall on record at Duluth.

Total precipitation:  7.67"
Normal:  9.05"
Departure:  -1.38" below normal

Total snowfall:  8.1"
Normal:  16.1"
Departure:  -8.0" below normal

International Falls, Minnesota

Average temperature:  46.3 degrees
Normal:  40.1 degrees
Departure:  +6.2 degrees above normal

Note:  This was the 3rd warmest Fall on record at International Falls.

Total precipitation:  6.61"
Normal:  6.45"
Departure:  +0.16" above normal

Total snowfall:  8.4"
Normal:  16.0"
Departure:  -7.6" below normal

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Broken record! Gray skies continued today with highs in the mid 20s to around 30 degrees which is near normal for early December.  Winds were out of the west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast...

Tonight through Saturday night (December 2-3)

High pressure will be in control of our weather as it slides slowly east across the Upper Midwest tonight, then exiting into the Great Lakes region on Saturday.  Moisture trapped in the low levels of the atmosphere should keep skies fairly cloudy despite the high over and near the area.

Not much change in temperatures -- Generally in the mid 20s to lower 30s through Saturday night, but a few locations might dip into the teens tonight.

Winds out of the west or northwest tonight will become south on Saturday, wind speeds generally around 5 to 15 mph.

.Extended Forecast...

Sunday (December 4)

A trough of low pressure will move into the Upper Midwest on Sunday, this system should bring some light snow to the Northland late this weekend.  Temperatures aloft remain cold enough to support snow, but surface temperatures could warm up enough causing the snow to mix with drizzle or light rain during the afternoon hours in parts of the area.  This won't be a significant snow event in our area with only minimal accumulations expected the way it looks now.

Highs on Sunday will be in the 30s with lows Sunday night in the mid 20s to around 30.

Monday (December 5)

A chance for snow or mixed precipitation especially Monday afternoon or Monday night.

Sunday's system exits off to the east on Monday but the next one will move into the northern Plains.  This one also doesn't look too impressive at the moment with mostly light precipitation amounts expected.  Highs on Monday will be in the 30s.

Note:  Still looks colder mid to late next week with possible flurries at times.  Daytime highs cooling from the 20s into the teens, overnight lows in the single digits and teens.  Nothing unusual for this area but it will feel cold considering the warmth we have had recently.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight...  Mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 27.  Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday...  Considerable cloudiness.  High 27 to 31.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  26
Low:   13

Sunrise Saturday:  7:36 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:21 PM CST

Tim